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EUR/USD Strategy for This WeekOn the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair is maintaining sideways movement around zone 1.0770 - 1.0760. Analysis Simple Moving Averages SMA 20 and SMA 50 indicates a downward trend phase. If the price breaks below the support level of 1.0724, this could lead to a stronger downtrend and may be tested further support levels . However, the possibility of a price increase cannot be ruled out entirely. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed above the 45 level, suggesting short-term upward potential for the EUR/USD pair in the near future. This could result in a short-term recovery before the official downtrend begins, but additional signals should be monitored to confirm the market direction.
by Ariana_alila
Forecast the trend of gold for todayBased on technical indicators, the gold market is currently continuing its upward trend. However, the possibility of a decline in the near future cannot be ruled out. For today, it is conceivable that gold may retreat to the support level of 2229, followed by a potential rebound. However, if the price of gold breaks below the support level of 2229, there is a possibility for a significant downturn. This necessitates investors to carefully consider and monitor market developments in order to make informed investment decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ariana_alila
1
Analyzing USD/JPY: Short-Term Price Appreciation OutlookBased on technical analysis, recent price action continues to reflect a phase of consolidation in the upward trend following a strong rebound from the lowest level in March. Additionally, other technical indicators on the chart remain positive and have not reached overbought territory. This suggests the potential for short-term price appreciation in the USD/JPY currency pair. However, caution is advised, and further confirmation is awaited for a breakthrough above significant resistance around the 152.00 level established last week before considering any further bullish actions.
by Ariana_alila
The price of gold continues The price of gold XAU/USD has recorded a significant increase, reaching nearly $2,250 at the start of the Asian trading session on Monday, attracting investors' attention amid expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, political tensions in the Middle East, and hopes for China's economic recovery. Furthermore, traders will focus on China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Manufacturing PMI of the United States. If the US PMI reports better-than-expected results, it could boost the value of the USD and limit the upward momentum of gold in the upcoming period
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ariana_alila
1
GBP/USD analysis: Buy or Sell?Based on the indicators on the 1-hour chart, Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 40 and the price is below the 20, 50, and 100 Simple Moving Averages (SMA), indicating a downward trend phase. If the price continues to decline and breaks below the support zone at 1.2590, there is a likelihood of a more significant downtrend in the near future. Conversely, if the price shows signs of reversal and begins to recover, it is likely to encounter resistance around the level of 1.2640.
by Ariana_alila
Euro/USD continues to sustain a downward trendCurrently, the price of the EUR/USD currency pair is hovering around the level of 1.0780. Based on technical analysis, the overall trend in the market is showing a downward movement for this currency pair. One of the commonly used indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is below the 50 level, indicating a weakening buying momentum in the market. Additionally, the price of this currency pair is below the 20, 50, and 100 Simple Moving Averages (SMA), confirming that the downward trend is still intact.
by Ariana_alila
1
AMA versus SMA. Is smarter really better?█ Adaptive versus Simple Moving Average Trading Strategies. Is smarter really better? Computer-aided trading systems have revolutionized the way trading decisions are made. We now employ sophisticated algorithms to predict market movements and execute trades at optimal times. Among these, moving average(MA) strategies stand out for their simplicity and effectiveness among the many available strategies. This study by Craig A. Ellis and Simon A. Parbery compares two prominent MA strategies: the Adaptive Moving Average(AMA) and the Simple Moving Average(SMA). Conclusion: While adaptive moving average strategies may provide an edge in certain market conditions by capturing trends more efficiently than simple moving averages, investors must carefully consider transaction costs. These costs can significantly impact net returns, particularly in frequent trading strategies. Findings suggest that the effectiveness of adaptive versus simple moving average trading strategies is nuanced in varying market conditions, with no one-size-fits-all answer. Investors should weigh the potential benefits of adaptability against the increased costs and risks associated with such strategies. █ Moving Average Trading Systems Among the various types of moving averages, the Simple Moving Average(SMA) and the Adaptive Moving Average(AMA) are particularly noteworthy due to their distinct characteristics and applications in trading strategies. ⚪ Simple Moving Average and Its Calculation SMA is one of the most basic moving averages in trading. It calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods. The SMA is straightforward to compute; you sum up the security's closing prices for a set number of periods and then divide this total by the number of periods. This process results in a smooth line that traders can overlay on their price charts to assess the direction of the trend. For example, a 20-day SMA would add up the closing prices of the past 20 days and divide the total by 20. This calculation is continuously updated as new closing prices become available, giving traders a dynamic view of the market's trend. // Function to calculate the SMA using an array sma(source, length) => // Initialize an array to hold the prices prices = array.new_float(length) // Fill the array with the most recent `length` prices for i = 0 to length - 1 array.set(prices, i, source ) // Calculate the sum of the array elements sum = array.sum(prices) // Return the average sum / length ⚪ Adaptive Moving Average and Its Calculation The Adaptive Moving Average (AMA), proposed by Perry Kaufman in his book "New Trading Systems and Methods," represents a significant advancement in moving average technology. Unlike the SMA, which gives equal weight to all data points, the AMA adjusts its sensitivity based on the market's volatility. This adaptability makes the AMA particularly useful in identifying market trends with varying degrees of volatility. The core of the AMA's adaptability lies in its Efficiency Ratio (ER), which measures the directionality of the market over a given period. The ER is calculated by dividing the absolute change in price over a period by the sum of the absolute differences in daily prices over the same period. // Calculate the Efficiency Ratio (ER) change = math.abs(close - close ) volatility = math.sum(math.abs(close - close ), length) ER = change / volatility The ratio helps determine how efficiently the price is moving in one direction. A higher ER indicates a more directional market, prompting the AMA to react quickly to price changes. A lower ER suggests a consolidating market, leading the AMA to respond more to recent price changes. █ Data and Research Methodology The data set encompasses daily closing prices for three major stock indices: the Australian All Ordinaries, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the S&P 500, spanning from 1980 to 2002. This period provides a comprehensive view of market behavior, including various economic cycles, bull and bear markets, and periods of high volatility. Such a diverse data set is crucial for testing the robustness of the AMA in different market environments. This study investigates whether AMA's adaptive nature results in superior performance compared to the more static SMA and the passive buy-hold approach. The key steps in the research methodology include: Parameter Selection: Identifying optimal parameters for both AMA and SMA to ensure a fair comparison. This involves selecting the look-back periods and thresholds for triggering buy or sell signals. Strategy Implementation: Developing trading strategies based on AMA, SMA, and a buy-hold benchmark. Each strategy is applied to the data set to simulate real-world trading, with buy or sell signals generated according to the specific rules of each approach. Performance Evaluation: The performance of each strategy is assessed using several metrics, including total return, risk-adjusted return, and maximum drawdown. This comprehensive evaluation aims to determine the effectiveness of AMA in navigating various market conditions compared to SMA and buy-hold strategies. Statistical Testing: Conducting statistical tests to ascertain the significance of the differences in performance outcomes among the strategies. This includes tests for statistical significance in returns and risk metrics, providing a robust framework for comparison. Sensitivity Analysis: Exploring how changes in the parameters of AMA and SMA affect the strategies' performance. This analysis helps understand the flexibility and adaptability of AMA in response to different market dynamics █ Results The empirical analysis focused on comparing the performance of Adaptive Moving Average (AMA) and Simple Moving Average (SMA) strategies across a variety of indices, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and NASDAQ. The performance metrics were primarily based on the total return over the investment period, the Sharpe ratio, and the maximum drawdown to assess each strategy's risk-adjusted returns and resilience during market downturns. The table demonstrates that the AMA strategy consistently outperformed the SMA strategy across all indices regarding total return and Sharpe ratio, indicating a superior risk-adjusted return. However, it's important to note that the AMA strategy also experienced slightly higher drawdowns than the SMA in certain instances, suggesting a potentially higher risk during market downturns. ⚪ In discussing the market timing ability of AMA, the analysis found that AMA could better adapt to changing market conditions, thereby capturing trends more efficiently than the SMA strategy. This adaptability resulted in higher returns during periods of significant market movements. However, when accounting for transaction costs, the advantage of AMA over SMA diminished, particularly in markets characterized by frequent, small movements that triggered more trading activity by the AMA strategy. █ Reference Ellis, C. A., & Parbery, S. A. (2005). Is smarter better? A comparison of adaptive, and simple moving average trading strategies. Research in International Business and Finance, 19, 399-411. ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Zeiierman
7
CRV is showing Clear Divergence +1100% Profit Potential--------------------------------------------------------------- Description --------------------------------------------------------------- + The analysis reveals a clear RSI bullish divergence, signaling an imminent reversal in price dynamics. This divergence pattern often precedes a significant uptrend, suggesting that a rebound is on the horizon. Investors keen on technical indicators would find this development particularly noteworthy, as it hints at a shift in market sentiment towards bullishness. + The prospect of a substantial profit of 1100% without the need for leverage underscores the attractiveness of the impending price recovery. Such a potential windfall without leveraging positions speaks volumes about the strength of the anticipated uptrend. It presents an opportunity for traders to capitalize on the market's natural movements without taking on additional risk through leverage, a strategy that aligns with conservative yet profitable trading approaches. + At present, the asset's price finds itself comfortably nestled within a supportive price zone. This zone, historically significant in providing a floor for price movements, serves as a solid foundation for the anticipated bounce-back. Market participants monitoring this zone with keen interest anticipate a swift turnaround, driven by both technical indicators and historical price behavior. This expectation adds weight to the likelihood of a bullish resurgence in the near future. --------------------------------------------------------------- VectorAlgo Trade Details ------------------------------ Entry Price: 0.3973 - 0.4797 Stop Loss: 0.3696 ------------------------------ Targets 1: 0.7353 Targets 2: 1.1190 Targets 3: 1.5840 Targets 4: 2.1276 Targets 5: 3.1282 Targets 6: 4.6582 Targets 7: 6.7875 ------------------------------ Timeframe: 1W Capital: 1-2% of trading capital Leverage: 5-10x --------------------------------------------------------------- Enhance, Trade, Grow --------------------------------------------------------------- Agree or Disagree with the ideas ? lets discuss in the comments. Like and follow us for more ideas. Regards VectorAlgo
Long
by VectorAlgo
5
BIG PLAN about BTCAlthough it is thought that we have left the bear market and entered the bull market, BTC does not yet seem to have achieved its normal correction level at the required percentage. When we examine the LP and OTH focused fib retracement ranges based on the Rising Wedge phenomenon related to the Bear Flag formation we are in, it becomes clear that the correction has not been fully realized. Currently, our strongest support level appears to be the 50-week simple moving average, which runs parallel with the Rising Wedge support trend. When SMA 50 breaks, we can expect a very deep decline.
Short
by the6ylal
🔥 Bitcoin & The 50-Day SMA: 77% Win-Rate Indicator!I rarely look at moving averages because they are often lagging indicators and tell only a part of the story. However, I noticed that de 50-day SMA has proven to be a very worthwhile indicator to watch. Since late April, the 50-day SMA has offered a lot of support and resistance for Bitcoin's price, see the yellow areas. In 10 of of the last 13 touches, the price reversed from the 50-day SMA. This means that, since April '23, there's a 77% probability that the price will reverse from that specific SMA. I assume that the indicator will lose this trading edge over time, but for now I'm definitely keeping it on my chart. If BTC's price were to reverse back up from here, I will likely consider a scalp-entry from the 50-day SMA's resistance.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by FieryTrading
16
🔥 Watch These Make Or Break Bitcoin Moving Averages 🚨Historically speaking, the 200-week moving average was always the main support for BTC and has marked the bottom on 4 different occasions. As of this cycle, things have changed. The 300-week was the main support during the COVID dump and indicated an important area during the FTX collapse. In previous analyses I've stated that I think BTC will likely go down over the next few months. My main target is 20.000, which coincides with the 300-week SMA support area. If 20.000 fails to hold, my next big support area is the FTX low, which should be around the 400-week SMA. Put these moving averages on your chart to get a good overview of historically important areas of support and resistance.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by FieryTrading
11
📅📈4-Year Bull Cycle and the 100 SMA Connection 🔄📅 The 4-Year Bull Cycle: Many seasoned crypto traders are familiar with the concept of the 4-year bull cycle, which appears to be a recurring phenomenon in the world of cryptocurrencies. Historically, it's been observed that approximately every four years, Bitcoin experiences a significant surge in value. 📉 The Dip Before the Leap: Interestingly, before each of these major bull runs, there's often a notable dip in the price of Bitcoin. It's during these dips that we see Bitcoin briefly dropping below the 100 SMA (Simple Moving Average) on the charts. 🚀 Setting the Stage: The dip below the 100 SMA seems to serve as a setup for the next bullish wave. It's as if Bitcoin takes a brief breather, shakes off weaker hands, and then prepares for its ascent. 📈 Past as Prologue: While history doesn't guarantee future outcomes, this pattern reminds us of the cyclical nature of the crypto market. It's not uncommon to see Bitcoin drop below the 100 SMA, only to rally to new heights shortly afterward. 🔍 Key Takeaway: Keep an eye on the 100 SMA, but remember that it's just one piece of the puzzle. Crypto markets are influenced by a multitude of factors, and no single indicator can predict the future with absolute certainty. 💡 Stay Informed and Adaptable: As crypto enthusiasts, our strength lies in staying informed, adaptable, and open to various perspectives. While historical patterns can provide valuable insights, they should be considered alongside other indicators and analysis. 🔄 The Cycle Continues: Whether you're a seasoned trader or a crypto newcomer, understanding the patterns and rhythms of the market can be empowering. The 4-year bull cycle and its dance with the 100 SMA are just part of the ongoing saga of crypto. ❗See related ideas below❗ Don't forget to like and share this post, and share your thoughts in the comments. Your insights fuel the crypto conversation! 💚📊💚
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Yaroslav_Krasko
Bitcoin SMA 200 is the current major supportBitcoin is currently staying strongly above the 200 SMA level. Usually 200 SMA line acts as a strong support or resistance level. We can expect BITSTAMP:BTCUSD to stay above 200 SMA and bounce back from that level. If BITSTAMP:BTCUSD breaks 200 SMA then we can see a sudden drop in BTC price upto 22000. In the last 3 weeks we did not see a major drop in bitcoin price (we had sudden pump and dump in bitcoin price but it failed to move it below 25K. ) Given the way BTC price is moving I expect it to stay above the 200 SMA level, may be we can see a small wick moving below it but nothing more than that. Once it bounces back from the 200 SMA area we are in for a huge upward momentum, we can use the 200 SMA a stoploss level and enter a LONG position after clear bounce back. Let's wait and see how market reacts. Follow us for more analysis and updates. Cheers! GreenCrypto
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by GreenCryptoTrades
5
EURUSD full weekly AnalysisSMA 20 of Daily chart alamost matches with SMA 480 of hourly chart. SMA20 of daily chart was a great trend detector for the pair recently so I'll use 480 in hourlt chart. According the SMA20 we are still bullish. By deeper look at Daily chart a bullish channel could be seen that proves bullish trend. Also a great SNR zone is obviously clear in daily chart. I think last week was just a correction. By looking at 1H zone, we could see conflux of mighty SMA480, Camarilla pivot level of S3, Daily S&R zone and also a strong Delta Volume important zone. There is a high probability of rejection from the zone. About the delta volume: There were strong buyers in last bullish move, but in some points there were slightly stronger sellers, market tends to reverse from those critical points. Looking at IG sentiment factor we'll get that sentiment indicators worked reversely in recent weeks. So strong sellers can not hesitate me. Market may avoid sharp moves before FOMC meeting at Wednesday. TP1 : 1.116 TP2 : 1.121 TP3 : 1.130
Long
by AliSignals
2