A trifling observation.Is it possible to provide an indication that pre-empts the classic "death cross"?
Traders use different systems to judge the market outlook on patterns, as well as an important indication for them.
It is perfectly normal that someone can be wrong, and someone will be lucky to read the market correctly.
This post is about anticipatory indication and prejudice. If you open the articles on moving averages,
you can read that the exponential Moving averages (EMAs) are preferable on low timeframes up to a minute chart,
but they are not but it's recommended for the weekly chart.
Whereas it is recommended to use SMAs on longer timeframes.
OK, I thought. But why? Who has checked it? A price is a price, in itself it only says that someone has offered an asset
at a certain price, and someone bought at that price. But the market trend requires more confirmation of transactions through volumes.
The price alone cannot tell you what the market has decided. And that is why I made this comparison. MA 50/200 (white and blue line)
versus EMA 50/200 (orange and purple) + VFI LF (volume flow indicator).
Hypothesis:
EMAs are valid for 1 week timeframe, the exponent is not suitable for this timeframe is a preconception.
MA lags in indicating the signal, but you need to know the trend of the volume, for which you need an indicator like VFI LF.
In the case of unidirectional signals EMA 50/200 and VFI LF you can make a deal without waiting for the signal MA 50/200.
Assertion:
Bitcoin is in a bear market and no reversal has occurred.
The bounce at the beginning of the year was intended to test crossed possible area of the weekly SMA moving averages.
But because of death cross on EMAs already on the 9th of January, it also puts selling pressure.
And here the Volume Flow Indication is an important aid.
See, the VFI has two pale lines besides the volume flow line itself,
it's a fast and slow MA of volume (but it's MA of volume, not of price!),
and on these lines you can also see golden and death crosses.
Look closely, in the history of Bitstamp trading (the longest trading history of Bitcoin)
there have been exactly 3 such crosses by volume indication on weekly chart.
Two bearish and one bullish.
The last bearish cross on the MA of volume flow occurred about a month before the cross at EMA 50/200 price.
December 12...
As a result:
Two bearish pre-emptive signals versus one classic "textbook" one.
My bet is that there will not be a upbounce.
There will be an 85% retracement level from the peak and a consolidation at the bottom.
Waiting for a reality check in this race.
My bet is that we are in a bear market.
