RK FORGE BREAKOUTA 3.5-year base breakout is seen in RK FORGE. It's also breaking out relative to the NIFTY SMALLCAP 100 Index.
I'm long from around the 900 levels for an initial target of 1345. Stop-loss can be a weekly closing under 680; making the risk-reward a little more than 1:2.
Not investment advice. This is only for educational and entertainment purposes. Please refer to your investment advisor before doing anything. I am neither a registered investment advisor nor a research analyst.
Smallcaps
$SDC is setting up for a nice squeeze! PT $8Smile Direct Club has been steadily climbing up the Fibonacci chart I have charted here, along with a solid uptrend. The RSI has breached 70, so I do expect to see a short-term retracement after possibly one more run this Friday, possibly tessting the $6.67 resistance level.
Lagging AI/Crypto Stock? Upside potential? Hello, Traders! I have come across an interesting opportunity today.! SOS looks to have formed a solid demand zone near $2.25-2.50.. There has been a lot of speculation behind this company in the recent year and had a massive dilution in shares this year.. From about 24 million shares to 184 million shares roughly. The company has not released an earnings report all year but provided Fiscal 2020 earnings, essentially since they began mining crypto.. We should see earnings within the next 2 months.. Although volume has remained low recently with upcoming catalysts many big players will have they're eye on this one.. Weekly Chart shows we are consolidating under the previous Lower Low in the downtrend, which is also the yearly low. Buy Limit set at $2.67! Triple Bottom bottom pattern on Daily Chart should allow this stock to test the $3.50 daily resistance once again (1st TP). A break above this zone with strong daily closure will take the price to $4.75-$6.00 (2nd TP), respectively weekly resistance. A break above this zone will allow a test of the $9.25-$9.80 region where daily gaps down have yet to be filled. (3rd TP). A Break below $2.25 will invalidate this trade (SL for swing trade).
The bottom for SmallCaps might be inWe might be in the midst of a trend reversal for a rotation that has been going on since March: Megacaps and SuperLargeCaps have been going higher, while everything from SmallLargeCaps to NanoCaps has been on the decline.
We've had many days recently where indexes seemed to go higher when the majority of stocks seemed to decline. That was, because we've seen huge increases in MegaCaps and SuperLargeCap companies recently, which have used so much money on the market that many, if not most SmallCaps have litterally have "their blood drained".
Analyzing the 2,5Y Forward P/E and P/S rates of MSFT & AAPL and adding a little bit bonus for small debt/equity(MSFT) and a little malus for high debt/equity(AAPL) I have come to the conclusion that they're trading roughly 100% over market average valuation for this kind of analysis.
Now, considering the fact, that both these FAANG giants are quite expensive at current valuations and seeing most SmallCaps trading significantly below market averages one starts to wonder when a trend change might be in.
The answer is: probably now. Or soon.
Subtracting Nasdaq100 Index( OANDA:NAS100USD ) (that tracks only the top100 companies of the NASDAQ exchange) from the Nasdaq Composite Index(that includes all Nasdaq listed companies) You're left with a quite unique picture: How Non-Index-Nasdaq-Companies are trading vs Nasdaq100 companies. This, in theory, can be mostly translated into how SmallCaps are faring vs MegaCaps and SuperLargeCaps.
As you can see, we have been on a decline for months, with quite a consistent trend resistance (the yellow line).
We're also trading near 03/2020 (Corona crash) & 09/2020 (Major Tech correction) lows.
We seem to have broken the Trend resistance (but better wait for real confirmation on Monday/Tuesday)
All of these facts lead me to believe the bottom for SmallCaps is in and MegaCaps and SuperLargeCaps are ahead of a major correction.
Let me know your thoughts! :)
Potential 118% upside in ExpressVery long period with increasing lows and highs.
Also, the growth is taking place without serious volumes, very soon there should be a surpass of the June volumes.
Usually, after such a long period, a sharp rise occurs and new highs are placed on increased volumes. A good risk / profit ratio can be taken from the current levels. Take 1 - 8.75 $ / take 2 - 14 $.
Quisitive Technology Solutions TA and thoughts $QUIS.VQuisitive $QUIS.V / $QUISF will report Q2 earnings on Aug 30th after the bell. This will be a company changing quarterly report IMO. For a detailed breakdown on what to expect for earnings you can follow my substack, I will be publishing an updated Q2 projection this weekend.
Price has failed to break lower on the last two selloffs. the 200 dma held and the stock bounced up Friday on light volume. Take in that volume contraction over August. Besides a few large buys that show up its been quiet on the Quis front. I believe Quis will run into earnings now this week. Its not going to take a whole lot to get us up to that overhead resistance I have lined out (1.68-1.70 range). This move up implies just over a 20% gain in 6 trading days.
Where the fun/risk comes into play is the market reaction to the numbers Quis puts up. IMO there is a chance Quis can push upwards of $24 million in revenue, which would be near 100% yoy growth. Again, my stack will breakdown this down in more detail. Furthermore what will drive sentiment is comments from CEO Mike Reinhart on LedgerPay commercialization being on schedule (no reason to believe it wont be) + any pilot projects that have been undertaken during Q3. Full Commercialization for LedgerPay is due after Visa Certification has been awarded, expected at end of Sept.
All in all, I believe there is a trade to be had here, as well as a good buy range at the start of the week for a long position. I also have quis's chart on stockcharts set up on weekly with rsi, macd and OBV - the stock is technically oversold and has a reasonably long runway if it moves up with purpose. I believe it will. Earnings could be the set up for a stronger push up near end of Sept when LP reaches full commercialization. Again, Mike Reinhart's comments will be key here to giving the market guidance.
I have a large position relative to my book in $QUIS.V, As always please do your own DD and follow your own trading rules.
Cheers,
Luke
Russell 2000 at a key point. Where is the market going next?The Russell 2000 (RUT) is at the lower support area of a bound trading range since February. Two key indicators already broke down this week. 1) The index dipped below its 200d moving average today. 2) The index is made up of small-caps, and the ratio of performance between small and large caps broke down this past week as well.
It's either time for small-caps to head back up, or this could be the start of a lower move.
Bullish: The US dollar strengthening for small caps is bullish. The 10y Treasury Yield remains low, keeping borrowing rates low for small, but growing companies. Employment data continues to strengthen, showing companies of all sizes, but especially small-caps across recovery sectors are hiring back employees to meet demand.
Bearish: The Fed is talking about a possible start to tapering this year. There are indications that the economic recovery is slowing. Retail Sales were lower than expected. Manufacturing Indexes showed a slow down this week. Small-caps are the most sensitive to changes in direction for the economy.
Covalent is a small cap gem! Potential 10x in the coming months.Covalent (CQT) was a hyped project on CoinList with an ICO a few months ago. It has similar functionality as The Graph (GRT) and could eat it into its market cap.
Covalent has gone up 300% in the last month but has a lot more room to run - I could see this as the potential next Solana. Coinlist ICO with hype, nothing for a little bit before raging its way into the top 100 or even top 50 within a years time. It has moved from about 560 to currently 342 on CoinGecko. GRTs current market cap is $3.8 billion. CQT is only $112 million. That's 1 /33 of the market cap. Not saying CQT will take over GRT and its technology. However, the project has great fundamentals and tokenomics. Whereas GRT has struggled with price action since its ATH in February (still down 75%), CQT is back already to its listing price on Kraken and other exchanges.
I see a bright future ahead and the 300% gains for the past few weeks are just a start. As it is a small cap, do not put a great amount of your portfolio - i.e. no more than 5%. However, it could be a great long term hold that will continue to fly as the bull market continues through to next year. I could foresee Solana or Avalanche like gains to come (new projects that have shown they have great tech and will stand the test of time).
MATTERPORT IPO DEBUT w/ some TA on the 15 minute chartToday Matterport previously GHVI changed its ticker to MTTR and had a decent open with about 1.5 million volume up until it was debuted on CNBC by the anchor Josh Brown. Then we saw a huge pump up from that area and about 3-4 million volume traded after he said he wants to buy after earnings happen. He is bullish on Matterport but also wanted to wait for earnings to add. We have a few stages of the DE-SPAC process to go through here that can help a long term investor DOLLAR COST AVERAGE down.
Pipe dump, Warrant Redemption, Insider Lockup periods, and whatever else in relation to that process.
This made for decent long and short momentum plays today. A lot of swings came in hot on the CNBC news and sold off on the momentum and a lot of puts and shorts came in on that momentum to take over as the double top was confirmed. We saw the bulls and bears fighting at close to hold $15 which is broke to $14.96 end of day.
Was quite exciting to watch it all go down!
SMALL CAPS CORRECTION OR HUGE BREAKOUT?The perfect storm event known as the Covid pandemic has introduced many millions of new traders into the circus. The indices have performed amazingly well over the last year.. nearly parabolically so. While I do not believe the indices have formed a major top yet, a minor pivot is likely. I have been hoping for a decent correction to shake things up. I am not certain if we'll even get that. I'm looking at this pattern on the Russell 2000 (RUT, IWM, RTY1!) that is either an ascending wedge or a bull flag. Watch price action closely in this range. If it breaks below, it will likely do it very quickly and flush a lot of these new traders out. On the flip, if it breaks above... well, prepare for another move that defies gravity.
What do you think will happen? I'd prefer a flash crash type of event. Personally, I believe having an equal long/short (hedge) is not unwise aka strangle.. Let's see what happens!
Small caps testing a critical support levelSince 2005, the IWM/SPY ratio has held this key support level 6 times. This support failed only once, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. Now we find out whether the pandemic was the exception that proves the rule, or whether the pandemic structurally changed something about the relationship between small caps and large caps.
Small cap valuations look better than large caps
Check out page two of the latest Yardeni report titled "Selected P/E Ratios." They've got forward P/E charts for large caps, mid caps, and small caps, showing that forward P/E for large caps is still extended well above its historical range, whereas forward P/E for small caps has corrected sharply down back into its normal range of the last 20 years. In fact, we're well below the price multiple that small caps traded at throughout 2017.
www.yardeni.com
Large caps just touched a strong resistance level
The Nasdaq index, heavily weighted toward large-cap tech stocks like Apple and Facebook, just touched 15,000 and seemingly got rejected from that level.
Large cap tech has benefited from soaring bond prices, but bonds seem to be meeting some resistance after this month's large inflation surprises. The Fed is doing its best to support bond prices with a "jawboning" campaign, but they've got a tough row to hoe after those inflation reports.
Large cap tech also faces a bipartisan push in Congress for antitrust legislation. Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are among the names that may be affected if such legislation goes through. Of course, Tesla is also getting some bad press from the Solar City trial. So it's possible we will see the beginning of a real Nasdaq/S&P 500 correction here.
How I'm playing it
When I say I think small caps will hold this support, I don't necessarily mean that small caps will make gains. Only that they will make relative gains. That could happen by large caps and small caps selling off together, but small caps selling off more slowly. Or it could happen by small caps trading sideways as large caps sell off. In general, small caps have made their largest gains when large caps are going up, not when large caps are going down.
So one way to play this support level is with a two-tailed bet: long small caps, short large caps. Personally I am long a few select small cap names. I like Allison Transmission because of soaring car prices, and I like the KRE regional banking ETF because bonds look like they may have hit a ceiling, and because small lending banks tend to trade inversely with bonds. To hedge my rate bet, I'm also long on small cap gold miners, which should benefit if bonds continue to go up.
(I'm also long on homebuilders KB Home and MDC Holdings, although the homebuilder sector is struggling a bit due to backlogs, labor shortages, materials costs, buyer reluctance, and rising rates on 5/1 ARMs. I love the valuations on these two stocks, but I won't be surprised if that trade continues to go against me here.)
For the large cap short, I'm trying to be a little careful, because the big tech companies' earnings are coming up. I think I may wait to see what the results are before I take that leg of the bet. It would be easy to get wiped out by a big tech earnings beat. For now I've just grabbed some UVXY shares.
As always, this is just an idea and not investing advice. Good luck!
Between Two Fibs - AEMDAEMD seems to like this range between the 786 and 618 fib lines. The 618 has long-been a point of resistance on the chart. Meanwhile, the last few days have seen it test the 786 level but hold both above it AND its 50DMA. No news today but focus on biotechs thanks to CYTK earlier could be a sympathy trigger at play. Also with the Delta varient becoming "a thing," covid stocks in numerous stages of development are becoming more of a focus right now. We'll have to see if 786 fib+ 50DMA post a strong support level and if 618 will remain resistance if or when AEMD takes another swing at it.
Not Much Fib With NRXP But Levels, Yes!Fib Retracement on NRXP doesn't show much by way of "important levels" until you get to the 786 if you use that ATH for the top of your fib set-up. BUT if you look back on the chart, there's a pretty clear level right AT the area NRXP stock is trading at after this news. Around $12.70 was a previous area where the stock tested but didn't break below. Now, since breaking below, this seems to be a level that it can't break above. However, after the news came out, NRXP has treaded water between 11.50 & $12 in a consolidation trend during the 7/19 session. Volume will be something to keep an eye on moving forward in deciding which way it will break.
"Shares of NRXP were also going against the grain of the broader biotech trend at the start of the week. NRX Pharmaceuticals (NRXP Stock Report) announced that it will present data at the Disease Control and Prevention Summit this week. Wednesday (7/21) the company provides evidence that its YESAMI treatment might help prevent “cytokine storm” in patients with COVID-19.
According to the company, 'In the recently-completed phase 2b/3 trial, patients treated with placebo experienced a statistically significant elevation in interleukin 6 (IL-6) cytokine levels, whereas those treated with ZYESAMI™ had a minimal increase in IL-6. Change in cytokine level was a prespecified endpoint of the study.'”
Quote Source: Small-Cap Stocks To Watch After CYTK Sheds Spotlight On Biotech
Russell 2000: Bottom is in. Resting on two key supports.IWM is sitting at the confluence of a 6-month support trend line and a 16-month support trend line. Daily RSI is at its lowest level since March 24, just one day after the stock market bottomed following the corona virus crash. Primed for a bounce.