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Small Caps Dead?AVUV from Avantis has outperformed the S&P since its opening in 2020. It recently dipped below the S&P for a brief moment before skyrocketing back above it. AVUV is not strictly a small cap fund because screens for value, profitability and momentum exposure. The recent surge in small caps has shown that diversified exposure to equities factors not present in the S&P 500 can be beneficial for those investing with long time horizons. Choosing funds with higher expected returns like AVUV might be difficult when the Mag 7 is driving the market, but you'll be very happy with your portfolio at times like this.
AMEX:AVUVLong
by Mere_Cat
1
Navigating Frothy US Equities with S&P SpreadsNavigating frothiness in US equities requires both caution and tact. With the S&P 500 nearing its all-time high amid flashing recession signals, investors must be vigilant with volatility during upcoming earnings season, driven by outsized expectations. This paper explores the persistent recession indicators and forces at play during upcoming earnings. The paper posits a spread trade using CME’s Micro E-Mini futures (Long S&P 500 and Short Russell 2000) to maintain upside potential with reduced downside risk. RECESSION RISKS PERSIST AS RATES REMAIN HIGH On Friday, the PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred gauge) showed inflation cooling to 2.6% in May, in line with expectations. Price pressures are slowly abating. Numbers aside, the broader economic landscape presents a complex picture. Signals from the job market point to unemployment claimants at a record high for the past two and a half year with job openings shrinking drastically. Personal earnings were higher than anticipated in May (0.5% vs 0.4%), but spending was below expectations. Consumers are being more cautious. Mint Finance covered these nuances in a previous paper . Housing is flashing weakness as new housing starts hit a four-year low in May. Soaring prices and steep mortgage rates are weighing on demand. The Fed’s policy path remains unconfirmed. However, consensus point to a rate cut as early as September. Even if that happens, rates are expected to decline gradually. Source: CME FedWatch Despite risk of recession, the S&P 500 has had an exemplary showing this year, trading near their all-time high. YTD performance of 15% in 2024 has been far higher than the 74-year average of 4%. Yet, the performance has been increasingly top-heavy. Nvidia, Apple, and the rest of the tech titans have contributed much of the gains in the broad S&P500 index as it is market cap weighted. The index is heavily reliant on and sensitive to the performance of these mega-caps. The equal-weighted S&P 500 index is up only by 4% in sharp contrast. The spread between the S&P 500 and its equal-weighted counterpart is near its highest point since 2008. The spreads between the S&P 500 and both the Russell 2000 and S&P Midcap indexes have reached multi-decade highs. Outperformance was re-affirmed after the recent earnings season. Mega-caps crushed EPS and revenue expectations and reported phenomenal guidance while other stocks, especially utility and energy sector reported revenue and EPS figures below estimates according to FactSet report . Rallies in mega-cap stocks are being driven by idiosyncratic tailwinds, such as advancements in AI. Meanwhile, slowing consumer spending in the US is raising concerns for the broader market. RISK OF SHARP CORRECTION WARRANTS SPREAD POSITION According to FactSet , Q1 earnings season was positive. Only 19% of firms reported earnings below expectations. Actual average EPS YoY growth for the index was 5.9% (above 3.4% expected as of March 31). Frothiness in the equity market is palpable. Consistent outperformance by mega caps is baked into investor expectations. Strong earnings are already factored into prices, as evidenced by the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 28.38x (far higher than the 10-year average of 20x translating to a 42% above average earnings expectations). Average P/E ratio in the best performing tech sector is even higher at 37.47x. Even minor shortfalls in guidance or revenue/earnings can lead to significant corrections in such a climate. The FactSet reports that 31.8% of firms which beat earnings EPS estimates by up to +5% saw average price decline of -0.9%. Source: FactSet Research In fact, overall, positive earnings only drove a 0.9% increase in price (1% 10Y historical average) while a negative earnings report led to 2.8% drop (-2.3% 10Y historical average). Source: FactSet Research Market frothiness elevates risk of a sharp price correction in single names during Q2 earnings. Analysts are concerned as expectations for Q2 EPS YoY growth have been lowered from 9% on 31/March to 8.8% as of 22/June. Despite this, mega-caps remain in solid position. Robust demand for AI, buoyant advertising revenue, globalized revenue streams, and substantial market dominance have positioned them to continue growing at a disproportionate rate. In case the upcoming Q2 results pan out similarly to Q1 in favor of mega-caps, the S&P 500 will continue to outperform the broader market indices. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The S&P 500, with its high concentration of mega-cap stocks, is likely to perform better than broader market indices in the coming earnings season. However, recession signals are also flashing. The S&P 500 does not perform well during recessions. Over the last four recessions, it has declined an average of -14%. Comparatively the spread between S&P 500/Russell 2000 spread has increased 1.7%. The S&P 500/Russell 2000 spread has also outperformed during the six-month preceding recessions. Given the S&P 500-Russell 2000 spread's historical outperformance during recessions, a spread position presents less downside risk compared to an outright long position in the S&P 500. This strategy also maintains a bullish outlook on the top-heavy S&P 500's potential to outperform in the upcoming season. Moreover, the spread trade preserves the upside potential in the ongoing rally, as its performance has been comparable to an outright long position in the S&P 500. A view on the spread between the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 can be expressed using CME Micro E-Mini Equity futures. At 1/10th the size of the full-size E-mini futures, the Micro contracts allow for smaller trades with more granular exposure. A long position in the Micro E-Mini S&P 500 futures expiring in September (MESU2024) can be offset by a short position on 2 x Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 futures expiring in September (M2KU24). This position is highly margin-efficient as CME offers margin credit for this spread. Hypothetical trade set up in summary requires entry at 2.69x, with a target at 2.78x coupled with stop loss at 2.6x. The simulated payoffs are described below. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MESU2024Long
by mintdotfinance
4
#HEG ltd Cup & handle pattern 20-30% upmove dega kya?HEG ltd cmp 1882, market cap 7264 cr, company is leading manufacturer and exporter of graphite electrodes. PE vs ROCE ratio is better as compared to another leading player graphite India. My concern is the fall in Operating margin trend. Holding% Dec'23 promoter 55.77( 59.62 Mar'21), FII 6.85(9.43 Mar'21), DII 8.85(7.41 Mar'21). Infact some new mutual fund players entered in feb'24 also so Mar'24 DII numbers should be up. Technically the chart is making cup n handle kind of pattern on weekly time frame and breakout above 1931 can bring fast movement. Upside levels can be 1)2335 2) 2470 3) 2575 4) 2763(imp level) 5) 3108. Once 2763 is crossed I will bring sl of remaining qty at 2470 and try to ride the trend till 3661/4557.
NSE:HEGLong
by ssudhirsharma11
3
SOUN a small cap AI stock ready for a VWAP reversal LONGSOUN on the 15 minute chart as fallen again to the anchored mean VWAP. Each previous time this has occurred in the past month, price has bounced into the second or third upper VWAP band line for a bullish momentum move. The mean VWAP is where big players like to pick up and drop off shares. Liquidity is at the highest. Teh Relative Trend Indicator will show best entries where the trend is negative but the returns to the chop zone to climb out of it and go positive. This indicator can function with alerts and notifications. SOUN uses AI and voice control of it to make apps more user friendly and potent. A similiar stock is DuoLingo ( DUOL) which also adds language translation into the functionality. Those on a budget in their trading love the price. Those not on a budget make love the volatility and the quick profits it can bring if traded properly.
NASDAQ:SOUNLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
MACRO MONDAY 33 ~ U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index MACRO MONDAY 33 ~ NFIB National Federation of Independent Business Index (NFIB) Released Tuesday 13th Feb 2024 Think of the NFIB small business index as a sentiment index, a sort of mood meter for small businesses. The higher the index, the more optimistic small businesses will be about spending more, expanding and increasing or maintaining employees. The NFIB is the nation’s largest small business advocacy group, with more than 600,000 members from all 50 states. Members are typically small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). These small businesses account for roughly 50% of the nation's private workforce and contribute to 44% of all U.S. economic activity making them an extremely important cohort to monitor and survey for economic purposes. The NFIB Index data The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (chart data) is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components calculated based on the answers of around 620 of the NFIB members. The survey questions cover various aspects of business sentiment, such as hiring plans, sales expectations, capital expenditure plans, and overall economic outlook. The Index figure is derived from all the survey responses, weighted and aggregated to produce a composite score that reflects the sentiment and economic outlook of small business owners. Baseline Level (100): The baseline level of 100 is often considered the neutral point on the NFIB Index. An index value of 100 indicates that small business owners are neither optimistic nor pessimistic about economic conditions. Values above 100 indicate optimism, while values below 100 indicate pessimism. On the chart below I note the relevance of the sub 91.5 level as a breach of this level has historically preceded or coincided with recessions (grey areas). The Chart The chart is fairly straightforward in that the green zone illustrates the optimistic zone (>100), the pessimistic zone is orange (<100) and the recession zone is red (<91.5). At present we are moving out of recessionary territory into the pessimism zone which is an improvement but we are a long way from the neutral level of 100. Expectations for Tuesdays release is a slight move higher towards 92.4. If we do move to 92.4 it will be the highest level recorded since June 2022. NFIB Negative Divergences Here is a supplemental chart that illustrates how the NFIB small business sentiment index has presented clear negative divergences against the S&P 500 during the last three recessions. In addition to the negative divergences, thereafter the following trigger events marked the beginning of thee significant drawdown events of each recession; 1⃣ The NFIB index breached below the 100 level in Oct 2000 prior to the Dot. Com Crash 2⃣ The NFIB index breached below the 91.5 index level in April 2008 prior to the GFC capitulation event 3⃣ The NFIB index breached both the 100 (Mar 2020) and 91.5 (Apr 2020) index level during the COVID Crash. In summary the negative divergences signaled the initial warning signs of recessions, thereafter losing key levels such as the 100 level and 91.5 level signaled the main draw down event initiation. Not all negative divergences resulted in a recession or poor price action and not all recessions came about after a breach of the 100 level however, both in combination add weight to the probability (but no guarantee's). This chart should not be viewed in isolation but should be added to our other charts to help gauge the likelihood of negative and positive outcomes. At present the small cap 2000 index is significantly under performing other stock indices which are breaking past all time highs. The small cap 2000 TVC:RUT adds weight to the struggling smaller businesses in the U.S. when combined with the under performing pessimistic reading of the NFIB small business index. A significantly positive reading on the NFIB could be a leading signal that small caps could start to perform again, catching up with the other indices. A negative reading might suggest the small caps 2000 will continue to lag and struggle. Lets see how we fair on Tuesday for the release of January 2024's survey results PUKA Lets see how we fair on Tuesday for the release of January 2024's survey results PUKA
ECONOMICS:USBOI
by PukaCharts
The rise of the AI cryptocurrenciesThere's a cryptocurrency related to AI called PAAL AI that has surged 2000X from its low last year. I know, it surprised me too! Afterward, I examined some of their partners. One of the most affordable in terms of market capitalization, at just $1.7 million, is VUZZ AI. While I'm uncertain if it will follow the same trajectory, I believe it's worth noting. On February 8th, 2024, they announced that VuzzMind joined the Google Cloud Partner Advantage Program, which is quite impressive!
Long
by TopgOptions
S&P 500 prime for a correction, BUT are we done with the run?How long do we stay below 5400 - SP500? is the real question. Are we going to see a sideways range through the fall? Do we get a rip roaring 10-15% correction and "L" or even better "V" recovery? The path does not matter as much but here is my commentary anyway. I think that we see a temporary high in early April as we power through the rest of Q1 earnings then take a breath.12% correction? -> 480 looks like a good support? over a couple months? May usually sucks, do we see a bottom in May with the "sell in May and go away" crowd? But I cant imagine much of a stay there with a gap down 5% bull run or a 3% turn around Tuesday. Not to mention the June cut expectations that will get early mover money flowing. I think the news goes with the fed cuts rates minus some black swan. You can almost mark our cycles to the fed rate decisions over the past 3-4 years. I could see a build up into June with expectations of rate cuts. Inflation remains in a downward trend. Manufacturing has been contracting. The big R word won't go away! Tax returns may stem a few more higher inflation readings that scare the market. Good correction fodder. But also good rate cut fodder. My Elliott wave charting (my own work) tells me that we could be near the top of wave 3 with a wave 5 to go. (Mind you I believe this is part of large wave 3. LETS GO 2025. Years of the bull. ROARING 20s.) Billions of dollars of stimulus sloshing around. Intel microchip plant in IN. Ford Blue Oval in TN Toyota in NC. Look at United Rentals.. Looking at their revenue a 40% increase since pre stimulus. 300 % increase in market cap in the same time frame. Maybe you want to say "but Zaphod... inflation". Even if you say the price has doubled for market value rentals, that is still 150% increase in expectations. Growth is expected with a 20 PE. That is a massive amount of building. Building infrastructure to support technology advances, our massive vehicle trash pile, the AI revolution, war machines, airplanes etc... Billions of dollars, then billions more dumped into these projects. Small caps and medium cap: Russell 2k, Even split SP500: The catch up trade could certainly drive us higher into 2025. All the billions that people just cashed out of Apple and Tesla(watch out below!), just looking for a new home. Let the rate cuts come and watch the second half of this year explode. 5800? Final note for today: exponential growth is going to continue until the collapse of society. 2% inflation charted is still exponential. Stay in the market, be a bull, you win more. You will hate the wild rides down unless you are patient and GREEDY when the fear is real. I am obviously making all this up to fan my biases so do your own speculating. Comment the thoughts below.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ZaphodBeebz
RiskMastery's Breakout Stocks - FFG EditionWelcome to RiskMastery's Breakout Stocks - Stocks with breakout potential. In this edition, we'll be looking at ASX:FFG ... I believe this code is at a point of potential volatility. If price can hold above $0.035 ... Bullish potential may be unlocked. My key upside targets include: - $0.046 (Conservative) - $0.059 (Medium) - $0.081 (Aggressive) If however price falls below $0.022 ... Bearish risk potential may be unlocked. (My key risk targets - C, M,& A - are as noted on the chart) Enjoy, and I look forward to being of further service into the future. If you'd like to connect, feel free to reach out and comment below. Mr RM | Risk Mastery Disclaimer: This post is intended for educational purposes only - Publicly available RiskMastery information & content is not intended to be financial advice in any shape or form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a licensed professional before acting on any of the information contained within this post. This post is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any positions in any financial instrument. All demonstrated trades are merely incidental to the educational training RiskMastery aims to provide. You are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions, of which should be made only according to your own opinion, knowledge and experience. You should not rely on any of the information contained on this site or contained in any RiskMastery material on any website or platform. You assume the sole risk of any trade or investment you elect to make. RiskMastery and affiliates shall not be liable to you for any monetary losses or any other damages incurred directly or indirectly, from your use, reliance or reference of RiskMastery materials, content and educational information. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation - We look forward to working with you into the future to navigate the fine line of trading and investment success.
ASX:FFGLong
by Bullfinder-official
U.S. Small Cap 3000 makes new ATH but U.S. Small Cap 2000 lagsU.S. Small Cap 3000 - TVC:RUA ✅A new ATH breaking above the Dec 2022 ATH U.S. Small Cap 2000 - TVC:RUT 🚨Continues to demonstrate relative weakness Light Blue by area on the chart 🔵 The U.S. small cap 3000 finally caught up with the other major indices such as the SP:SPX and NASDAQ:NDX as it previously has been demonstrating relative weakness failing to make new highs. That changed with the close of last week. The U.S. Small Caps 3000 index is inclusive of the large cap 1000 Index. The 3000 index also uses market capitalization-weighted methodology. This means the larger 1000 companies have a greater impact on the indexes performance. This may explain why the 3000 index is out performing the 2000 small caps index by a wide margin. The Small caps 2000 is a better representation of the of small-cap stocks/businesses whose market capitalization is about $250 million to $2 billion 🧐 So the 1000 Large-Cap stocks direct the majority of the small cap 3000 index's performance. The heavy spearhead of the index is the 1000 large caps. The S&P 500 Index tracks the largest 500 publicly traded companies, with exposure to 80% of U.S. stocks, compared to the U.S. Small Cap 3000’s 96% in U.S. Stocks 🧐 So the small caps 3000 index is a very concentrated index made up of primarily large U.S. stocks, even more concentrated by the S&P500 Divergence in Progress On this chart you can see that in Dec 2022 the U.S. Small Cap 3000 index made a new high whilst the 2000 index made a lower high. This was a warning signal at the time that prices were about to roll over. This is not a guaranteed signal however it is something to watch out for and it appears to be in progress again at present. We can add it to our armory of risk indicators that can, when used in aggregate, help inform us of probable outcomes (not guaranteed outcomes). One would hope the Small Cap 2000 would base here or make a new high. We can continue to watch these two indexes and see how they move together for an indication of things to come. You can find this chart on TradingView and hit play to see how they are moving in lockstep. PUKA
TVC:RUA
by PukaCharts