Get started

Smart-money

Bitcoin ATH: Potential Retracement Zones and Key LevelsBitcoin current price now is 76k surpassed ATH at 14 March 2024, after surge more than 13% we may see increased speculation and bullish momentum driving the price higher. However, if Bitcoin struggles to maintain upward momentum near this level, we may witness a retracement before the next significant move. Retracements are a common and healthy part of price movement, providing the opportunity for consolidation before the next leg up. On the chart, we observe several retracement levels marked by Fibonacci retracement levels, as well as Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) that may act as areas of support if Bitcoin's rally takes a breather. 1. The first potential support level sits at the 0.5-0.62 retracement level. This zone represents a modest pullback and would allow Bitcoin to establish a higher base without losing its bullish structure. This level falls within an FVG, which might reinforce the zone as a strong support if Bitcoin pulls back to this area. 2. A deeper retracement could see Bitcoin testing the 0.705-0.79 retracement level. This level could attract more significant buying interest, as it represents a meaningful correction or extreme discount zone that provides an attractive entry point for new buyers. 3. Green zone (OB) signaling areas of potential liquidity where buyers might enter aggressively to capture value. Trendline Support and Horizontal Levels Trendlines provide insight into Bitcoin's directional bias. A rising trendline, indicated in yellow on the chart, has been guiding the recent rally and could serve as dynamic support in case of a downturn. If Bitcoin respects this trendline, it would suggest a continuation of the uptrend, with the trendline acting as a safety net for any dips in price. This would allow BTC to pull back and consolidate while maintaining its upward momentum. Another significant level is marked as "rH" around $73,787, a former resistance level that could now act as support. If Bitcoin retraces to this level and finds support, it could reinforce bullish sentiment and potentially lead to another rally attempt. Volume Analysis We also see moderate trading volumes, indicating sustained but cautious buying activity. An increase in volume at higher prices would strengthen the case for a continued rally, as it would demonstrate robust market interest. Conversely, if the volume decreases during a pullback, it may indicate that sellers lack conviction, suggesting that the retracement could be brief and limited to consolidation.
by Perseusx01
Bullish Dollar Within a Trading Range. TVC:DXY is currently trading in a consolidation pattern and is located in the premium end of the trading range between 104.447 and 103.013. The August 30 candle swept the short term daily sellside liquidity at 103.013 into the Weekly BISI fair value gap which was nearly totally rebalanced. Upon leaving the Weekly FVG range, it was repriced to the premium end of the range, forming a daily BISI Fair Value Gap. Sept 4th trading range appears to still be forming a Daily BISI fair value gap in which I expect price to protract into early in the week before either staying in a consolidated range or move higher toward daily and weekly buyside liquidity pools toward the daily Volume Imbalance. Price points of interest: D.Volume Imbalance: 105.278 & 105.125 Wk.Buyside Liquidity: 104.700 D.Buyside Liquidity: 104.447 D BISI Fair Value Gap: 104.025 high & 103.740 low D. BISI Fair Value Gap: 102.771 high & 102.654 low.
TVC:DXYLong
by DenisRisticFX
1
Smart Money Concepts swing trading odyssey|Ep.12|8R long|EURUSDBack yet again with the Phase C continuation limit order entry model for swing trading, using ICT's SMC toolkit. This is again being documented as a reference for my future YouTube channel. This description took too long to write, sorry if price has moved away from where I got tagged in... So, these Phase C swing trades are proving to be a bane - the last one on Gold went sideways for about 2 weeks leading to me closing it today before inflation news with DXY showing weakness. Fed sentiment: Hawkish? The bond market says another 0.25% rate hike is likely and I think it has been priced in for a while. US inflation slowly coming down; 5% down to 4% y/y. Month on month it's not improving though and employment is only just starting to maybe drop, meaning room for another interest rate hike to tighten the economy. Trader sentiment: risk on (inflation easing + stock market rallying) On the Euro side, employment seems to be going up, and inflation is still too high. A rate hike is practically a given with the ECB having room to do it. Overall sentiment: The 0.25% rate hike seems to be baked in, and in spite of that, EURUSD continues to form a technical pattern that implies it's going higher. If the Fed doesn't make the expected rate hike, it will likely just accelerate Euro's move up. I am forecasting a technical move up more than a fundamental one. At LEAST to fill in the weekly FVG - if not breaking the last supply zone creating a new high for the year - but with the Fed expected to hold rates ~5% until possibly 2024 v.s. the pace of Europe's hikes and their stagnant GDP putting a limiter on their hikes, right now I don't see how EURUSD could rally much higher than that (but maybe this is just a lack of understanding on my part?) Technicals: W pattern formed on daily TF creating new demand zone. SMT divergence with the DXY gives me confidence that market makers won't push price lower during FOMC tomorrow. Entry: Phase C pullback into discount/50% of 4h swing low/daily bullish OB. As I said above, the SMT divs with Dollar gives me confidence to put my stop below the last 4h swing low despite news tomorrow, which could give an opportunity to scale in with bigger size, providing Euro doesn't just slip 60 pips in the blink of an eye. Exit/Terminus: mid-point of the gap (volume imbalance) on the weekly TF + old weekly high, which is an 8R trade. I plan to partial at the last supply zone which begins at ~$1.09500. Confidence: 7.5/10 for directional bias & 6/10 that they won't stop me out during FOMC tomorrow 😋. Here is the weekly chart. Notice the red box which is the volume imbalance I am using as my Terminus/DOL:
Long
by SmartMoneyConceptsOnYouTube
Smart Money Concepts swing trading odyssey|Ep.11|11R short|GoldTesting my own Phase C continuation limit order entry model for swing trading, using ICT's SMC toolkit. Fed sentiment: Hawkish? bond yields up/possibly more hikes/USD strength Trader sentiment: risk on? (Nasdaq rally/debt ceiling raise talks/inflation easing?) Supply/Demand factors: people still in employment and spending money means demand Overall sentiment: should be bullish if not for hawkish fed and dollar strength Technicals: Gold overbought/in premium on higher timeframes, double top pattern yet to finish playing out. SMT divergence with Silver Entry: Phase C pullback into premium of 4h swing high/fair value gap. tightened up stop because swept PDH (prev day high) giving a nice potential 11R return Exit/terminus: MT of M -OB (50% of monthly bearish order block(Mean Threshhold)) Confidence: 7/10 Weekly chart: Monthly chart (see order block):
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SmartMoneyConceptsOnYouTube
4
V2.0 | 22R Gold Long Swing Trade | Smart Money Concepts/ICTThis is an updated plan for the macro Cup & Handle breakout Previous setup for the 30R Gold long didn't play out; the unconfirmed SMT divergence didn't get confirmed and there was no impulsive move away. The stop loss is larger due to the entry location. Not financial advice but if this trade idea inspires you, you could use an even bigger stop to avoid potentially getting stopped out by an errant news spike. 22:1 risk reward sounds cooler though doesn't it? SMT divergence in this setup between Gold & Silver has been confirmed this time; stops were swept on one pair but not on the other, before rallying upwards and creating a higher high on the daily timeframe. In theory the swing where stops were swept SHOULD hold now.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SmartMoneyConceptsOnYouTube
Possible 30R Gold Long - Swing trade - Smart Money Concepts/ICT1. Price has come back to mitigate the 4H +FVG (Fair Value Gap) created on the 4th April, sweeping a PDL (Previous Day's Low) in the process to clean out the stop losses of anyone in early longs from this past week. This is an early entry signal and I have started to scale in with a scalp. (This higher risk trading, and not financial advice!) 2. Price has also retraced to a W +OB (Order Block) 3. We have SMT divergence with Silver, which has not swept the same low; another bullish signal in SMC (Smart Money Concepts) - although it would be better to have the SMT divergence with the previous structure than the current one as this is still unconfirmed (Silver can still make a lower low!) ENTRY: ***IF*** price displaces/moves impulsively away now on the 15m timeframe, it can come back to fill the 15m +BPR (Balanced Price Range) left after the sweep of the 4th April lows. a 15m ChoCh (Change of Character) A.K.A. MSS (Market Structure Shift) would be ideal, but the last 15m swing high to be broken is a bit far away so the BPR fill is the alternative. This also lines up with the 4H +FVG which has a 4H +OB/Demand Zone below it. I have placed my stop loss below the Pennant's rPOC (Range Point Of Control) for a peace of mind instead of the wick of the stop hunt. I will post a zoomed in chart below.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SmartMoneyConceptsOnYouTube
1
Oil 6R Short Trade | Smart Money Concepts | ICT | SMT divergenceTesting another short swing trade based on SMT divergence; this time, divs between US treasury yields and Oil, targeting a previous day's low and demand zone. I already caught one 6R short the other day using this same setup, and now we have more divergence while price has come into an untapped New Day Opening Gap as well as a supply zone. We have also retraced on the daily timeframe to the 50%/equilibrium of the range and bottom of the wedge pattern that has already played out. Price has choched/MSS'd on the 1H timeframe taking out Asia lows and pulling back to mitigate around daily range's equilibrium/mid. This swing trade is supported by: 1. (like my BTC long) A risk-off environment due to impending bank failures combined with the Fed's sentiment indicating an ostensible softening of interest rate rises. This is not investment or financial advice, just my own opinion.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by SmartMoneyConceptsOnYouTube
Bitcoin 23R Long NOT Short | Smart Money Concepts | ICTThis is a re-entry to a 39R long that I posted the other week based on an inverted H&S on the daily timeframe. This time it's another 23R long based on a sweep of a previous day low which I scalped yesterday, and a scale in after a 15m choch/MSS and pullback to OTE. The strategy is the same, but this time it's based off a retracement to the top of this megaphone structure on the daily timeframe and a supply zone roughly at the 50% equilibrium point. There is also SMT divergence between Ethereum and BTC as indicated on the chart I think this is a bit more risky, but unless we get a bigger pullback, this is the best place to enter. This scale-in swing trade is supported by: 1. A risk-off environment due to impending bank failures combined with the Fed's sentiment indicating an ostensible softening of interest rate rises. 2. Investors are seeking safety in Gold and BTC, as well as hedging against inflation. This combined with the weekly timeframe falling wedge and daily H&S pattern pointing to $37K or higher (supply zone and high volume node above). This is not investment or financial advice, just my own opinion. I already partialed on my previous swing trade from ~24K so this scale-in is worth the risk:reward.
Long
by SmartMoneyConceptsOnYouTube
40R EURUSD Long Swing Trade (Smart Money Concepts)Testing one of my smart money concepts swing trading strategies using an early entry based on day trading setup. The setup normally involves a sweep of a 4h choch/MSS deep in premium/discount, then a daily pin bar or hammer, or a 4h choch. Previous Day Opening Gap has been filled on DXY as well as three months of liquidity swept. This early entry utilizes a long from a trendline following another strategy of mine. If successful, will take the majority of the position off after daily FVG fills and leave some on to run as a swing trade.
Long
by SmartMoneyConceptsOnYouTube
1