EUR-USD Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD made a retest
Of the key horizontal
Support level of 1.1369
And we are already seeing
A bullish rebound so we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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Smartmoney
USD/JPY Breakdown: Is 140 the Next Target? Smart Money Says Yes!USD/JPY is currently in a highly interesting technical and macro phase, characterized by divergences between price action and institutional positioning, negative seasonal signals, and retail sentiment that goes against what would typically be expected in a reversal scenario. Let’s break it down:
1. Institutional Positioning (COT Report)
The COT data reveals a mixed picture with bearish implications for USD/JPY:
On the USD side, non-commercial traders continue to increase their net long exposure (+2,044 new long contracts this week). However, this rise is almost equally offset by +1,975 new shorts, indicating indecision and hedging activity.
For the Japanese Yen, non-commercials (speculators) are significantly rebuilding long JPY positions, while commercials have started covering their short exposure.
📌 Implication: The net flow favors the Yen, meaning bearish pressure on USD/JPY. The increase in JPY long positions reflects expectations of a stronger Yen in the short to medium term.
2. Historical Seasonality
Seasonal data reinforces the bearish bias:
In May and June, USD/JPY has historically posted negative returns.
The 5-year average shows -0.57 in May and -0.76 in June, with both the 2Y and 10Y averages confirming a similar downward seasonal pattern.
📌 Implication: The current seasonal window does not favor a USD rebound vs. the Yen. Historically, the likelihood of downside increases into early summer.
3. Retail Sentiment
Retail traders are heavily long, with 64% positioned long on USD/JPY versus 36% short.
📌 Implication: From a contrarian perspective, this is a bearish signal. Markets tend to move against retail positioning, adding further downside risk.
4. Price Action & Technical Structure (Daily Chart)
On the weekly chart:
Price broke the key 144.00 support decisively, closing the week at 142.81.
Structure shows lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend.
RSI is falling but still above oversold levels, leaving room for further downside.
First demand zone: 141.50–142.20. A confirmed break could open the way to 140.00–139.80.
Key resistance on any pullback: 145.00–146.00.
📌 Implication: The confirmed break of support activated a bearish continuation setup, unless short-term bounces offer new sell opportunities near resistance.
5. Market Depth
Market depth shows a strong cluster of long orders above current levels, while short volumes appear fragmented. This suggests any short-term rally could face aggressive selling between 144.50–145.50.
🎯 Conclusion & Operational Outlook
The overall context points to a high probability of further downside in USD/JPY over the short to medium term:
Smart money is rotating toward the Yen.
Seasonal patterns historically support a drop in May–June.
Contrarian retail sentiment adds additional bearish weight.
The weekly chart confirms a break of structure, opening space below 141.50.
GOLD: Long Trade Explained
GOLD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy GOLD
Entry Level - 3295.4
Sl - 3287.5
Tp - 3311.1
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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JPY/USD – Clean Rejection from Mini Resistance | Bearish Move🔻 1. Major & Mini Resistance Zones
Mini Resistance Zone: This is a key supply area that aligns with previous highs and recent structure points. As the price approaches this level, it tends to react due to unfilled sell orders and trapped buyers.
The chart shows a rejection from this mini resistance zone — visible through strong bearish candles. This suggests institutional selling pressure has entered the market.
Major Resistance is still untouched above, which becomes a clear invalidation level for any short bias. If price breaks and sustains above it, the bearish idea would be invalidated.
🔄 2. MMC (Mirror Market Concepts) at Work
The MMC idea is clearly illustrated. The price movement after the last major drop is mirrored on the right side:
Strong rally > Formation of lower highs > Resistance retest > Sharp decline
These mirrored behaviors often hint at psychological repetition in the market, driven by trader memory and order placement.
The bearish movement after retesting the mini resistance looks nearly identical to the previous leg on the left — reinforcing the idea that we may see a similar downside structure repeat.
🌀 3. Central Zone Area – Liquidity Trap and Reaction Point
The Central Zone Area is labeled where a previous sharp bounce occurred. This zone is critical for several reasons:
It acted as support multiple times.
It’s also where a liquidity grab occurred — shown with a long wick — before a reversal rally.
In current price action, this zone may again act as a magnet for price, as institutions seek liquidity to fuel further moves. Once price reaches it, expect a temporary bounce or reaction.
📐 4. 50% Fibonacci Retracement Confluence
The projected target sits right on the 50% retracement level of the previous bullish leg.
Institutions frequently target the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci zones to rebalance orders and create continuation moves.
This target zone is marked in purple and is aligned with historical support, adding confluence.
📉 5. Sharp Bearish Reversal from Structure
You can observe a very clear shift in momentum:
The uptrend was broken with a strong bearish engulfing candle.
That move wiped out several minor bullish structures — a sign of structure collapse.
This breakdown, combined with the resistance rejection and MMC mirroring, strongly supports a bearish continuation bias.
📊 6. Previous Targets and Structure Memory
The previous targets and historical swing points are not just annotations — they represent real zones of order flow memory.
When price revisits these levels, you often see reactions (reversals, consolidations, or continuation).
🎯 Trade Plan (Based on Chart):
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: After rejection confirmation at mini resistance
Target Zone: 0.00675 area (50% retracement)
Invalidation: Close above 0.00715 (Major Resistance)
✅ Conclusion:
This JPY/USD 4H chart beautifully showcases the power of technical structure, Mirror Market Concepts, and liquidity-focused trading. With a clean rejection from mini resistance, a history of mirrored bearish setups, and a confluence target at the 50% zone, this chart suggests a high-probability short opportunity for disciplined traders.
OSCR 1W — When the Chart Speaks Before the FundamentalsThe Oscar Health chart is currently forming a textbook cup and handle — a long-term reversal structure that has completed its base and is now breaking out of the consolidation zone. The bullish structure is confirmed through price action, volume, and positioning relative to key moving averages.
The price has broken through the upper boundary of the handle, shaped as a descending wedge. The breakout is accompanied by increased volume — a clear sign of capital rotation out of accumulation. All major moving averages (EMA, MA50, MA200, WMA) are trending upward, and the price is holding above them all, confirming the bullish momentum.
According to Fibonacci extension levels, drawn from the historical low of $1.50 to the peak near $23.26, the first wave target stands at $36.71 (1.618 level), with an extended target at $45.02 (2.0 level).
Structurally, the setup suggests a medium-term scenario pointing from current levels toward the $36–45 range, with the potential to repeat the kind of explosive move seen during the 2023 phase, when the price increased more than sixfold.
On the fundamental side, Oscar Health is actively recovering: in 2024, revenue grew by more than 50%, net losses were cut nearly in half, and the client base continued to expand. The company is strengthening its share in the digital insurance market and gaining support from institutional investors, including Morgan Stanley and Capital Group. The latest quarterly report was positively received.
The breakout is technically clean and fundamentally supported. The immediate pullback zones sit at $14.95 and $13.40. Below that, moving averages may act as control zones for reaction.
GBP-JPY Resistance Cluster! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-JPY made a retest
Of the resistance cluster
Of the rising and horizontal
Resistance lines around 193.989
And we are already seeing a
Bearish reaction so we will be
Expecting a further bearish
Move down
Sell!
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AUDJPY: Bearish Continuation is Highly Probable! Here is Why:
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the AUDJPY pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
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Gold Price Action Analysis – Using MMC (Mirror Market Concepts) 🔍 Overview:
In this idea, we dive deep into XAU/USD's (Gold) short-term bearish move using a blend of Mirror Market Concepts (MMC) and Smart Money Concepts (SMC). The 15-minute chart provides an excellent visual of market psychology shifting, with CHoCHs, supply-demand zones, SR flips, and the Black Mind Curve highlighting the story of price.
🧩 Market Structure Breakdown:
🔵 1. Major Resistance Zone Formed
Price pushed aggressively upward but met strong rejection near the major resistance zone.
This zone acts as a ceiling for the bullish momentum—setting the first signal for a possible reversal.
🔵 2. Black Mind Curve Activated
A descending Black Mind Curve was plotted to reflect the psychological shift from bullish to bearish.
Price failed multiple times to break above this curve, highlighting strong internal weakness.
The Black Mind Curve visually reinforces the bearish tone and offers a roadmap for probable lower highs.
🔵 3. Minor Resistance + SR Interchange
As price dropped, it created a minor resistance.
When price returned to this area and rejected it, this confirmed an SR Flip (Support-Resistance Interchange)—a classic MMC feature.
Mirror Market Concepts suggest that old demand often mirrors into new supply. That's exactly what happens here.
🔵 4. Major CHoCH: Change of Character
A decisive break of the bullish structure signaled a Major CHoCH, confirming bearish order flow.
This is the moment smart money starts repositioning for shorts—liquidity has been grabbed above previous highs, and the direction shifts.
🔵 5. 50% Retracement
After the impulsive drop, price retraced nearly 50%—a key area of interest for MMC traders.
This level often acts as a decision point. In this case, price rejects the retracement, creating an ideal zone for re-entries.
🔵 6. Targeting the Demand Zone
The projected target lies in a prior demand zone, which mirrors earlier supply structure.
This aligns with MMC’s principle of "market reflection"—what was resistance becomes support again, and vice versa.
🎯 Trade Bias: Bearish
Entry Confirmation: After CHoCH + rejection from 50% level + re-alignment with Black Mind Curve.
SL: Just above the 50% retracement or last minor high.
TP: At the marked target zone near historical demand.
🧠 Why MMC Works Here:
MMC helps you see the market in reverse—where previous zones mirror and reflect. Combined with smart money triggers like CHoCHs, BOS, liquidity sweeps, and SR flips, this makes for a precise trading model that goes beyond basic support and resistance.
The beauty of MMC is that it reveals where the crowd is wrong and where the real momentum lies.
🔑 Key Takeaways for Traders:
The Black Mind Curve helps visualize hidden resistance paths.
CHoCHs are crucial in understanding market intent.
MMC allows traders to anticipate instead of react.
High probability setups form where multiple MMC/SMC elements converge.
Always wait for confirmation, not assumption.
EURJPY: Bearish Continuation
Balance of buyers and sellers on the EURJPY pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the sellers, therefore is it only natural that we go short on the pair.
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EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will the Bears Strike Back from 1.14? 📍1. TECHNICAL CONTEXT
EUR/USD is trading around 1.1405, inside an ascending channel and right within a supply zone (1.1370–1.1470), which already triggered a rejection on April 16. Price action currently shows hesitation, with three consecutive candles at the top of the channel and RSI divergence, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum after an overextension.
The bullish trendline from April remains intact and validated, but the upside is narrowing. Likely scenario: bullish exhaustion followed by a pullback towards 1.1270–1.1220, with a potential retest of both the trendline and the lower boundary of the channel.
📊2. COT REPORT (USD & EUR) – Updated to May 20
USD Index: Non-Commercials added +2,044 net longs, but also +1,975 new shorts. Open Interest rose by +2,207 → a more active market, but still mixed. Net exposure remains neutral to slightly bearish for the dollar.
EURO FX: Non-Commercials cut -3,587 longs and added +6,814 shorts, while Commercials increased longs by +16,796. Speculative funds are gradually shifting short on the Euro, while Commercials continue to hedge long.
→ Combined read: Large speculators are reducing their Euro exposure and staying cautious on the Dollar. Short-term pressure on EUR/USD remains bearish, though no macro reversal yet.
📉3. SENTIMENT & POSITIONING
Retail sentiment shows 71% of traders are short EUR/USD — a classically contrarian signal. However, price is now sitting in a liquidity cluster where smart money might exploit a final squeeze before a real reversal.
Market depth shows strong imbalance, with long orders stacked above current price — suggesting potential stop hunt already triggered or about to fade.
🧭4. SEASONALITY
Historically, May is a bearish month for EUR/USD: -0.0079 on 20-year average, and -0.0163 on 10-year average. Seasonality supports late May weakness and potential downside continuation into early June.
✅ TRADING OUTLOOK
📌 Primary Bias: short-term corrective bearish, waiting for clearer reversal signals.
📌 Key Reaction Zone: 1.1400–1.1470 → structural short area, already tested.
📌 Bearish Target: 1.1270 > 1.1210 (golden pocket + trendline confluence)
📌 Setup invalidation: daily close above 1.1470 with volume → possible extension to 1.1550/1.1580
📌 Macro support: Commercials remain long on the Euro → underlying structure still bullish, but too early to fade short-term bearish momentum.
USDCAD: Long Trade with Entry/SL/TP
USDCAD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long USDCAD
Entry - 1.3731
Sl - 1.3673
Tp - 1.3833
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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GOLD Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD made a retest a
Horizontal resistance
Of 3,366$ and we are
Already seeing a local
Bearish reaction so a
Further local pullback
Is expected with the
Target being 3,337$ level
Sell!
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GBPCAD: Expecting Bearish Continuation! Here is Why:
The price of GBPCAD will most likely collapse soon enough, due to the supply beginning to exceed demand which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair.
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EURNZD: Bulls Will Push Higher
Looking at the chart of EURNZD right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move up seems to be quite likely.
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EURUSD: Short Signal Explained
EURUSD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell EURGBP
Entry - 1.1383
Stop - 1.1438
Take - 1.1272
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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GOLD Short Setup – OB Rejection + FVG Play to Weak Low 📉 XAUUSD | 4H Short Setup – Classic Smart Money Reversal Zone
Gold is giving us a prime reversal opportunity off a stacked supply zone, aligning with:
🔵 79% Fibonacci Retracement
🟪 High-Timeframe Order Block (OB)
🚫 Failure to create a new high (bearish intent confirmed)
Let’s break it down:
🔻 1. Price Structure Insight
Clean swing high printed near 3400
Retraced down to a discount zone, then sharply reversed
Price now tapping into a premium supply zone between 70.5% – 79% Fib
🟣 2. Key Zone Confluence
📍 Order Block: The final up-candle before a massive drop = institutional sell zone
📍 Fibonacci Levels: 70.5%–79% = premium sell levels
📍 Internal Liquidity: Price swept local highs before stalling
📍 Strong High Above: Untouched = inducement for future sweep (or rejection fuel)
Everything screams Smart Money Sell Setup 📉
🎯 3. Trade Idea
Sell Entry: Around 3,348
Stop Loss: Above OB & Strong High ~ 3,390
Take Profit: 3,120 (clear weak low = liquidity pool)
⚖️ 4. Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR)
📥 Entry: 3,348
🔒 SL: 3,390
💰 TP: 3,120
✅ RRR ≈ 1:5.4
Perfect textbook SMC setup—high confluence + asymmetric RRR = 🔑
🧠 5. Why This Setup Works
Retail traders are lured into longs after bullish push
Smart Money taps OB, rejects hard at premium
Target: internal liquidity resting at weak low (3120)
This creates a controlled sell-off that avoids grabbing the strong high
🟢 Drop a “GOLDEN SHORT 🪙💥” if you caught this setup before the crowd
💾 Save it for reference – this is how institutions trap liquidity
📤 Share with your trading fam — this setup is 🔥🔥🔥
EURCAD (Supply/Demand + OTE + Liquidity)Hello traders!
We have valid 705 fib level, there we can expect reversal + mitigation demand zone.
Now price go to local correction. In local 0.5 fib level you will see big volume like confirmation before impulse till Demand.
Entry: confirmation on LTF in POI
Target: First problem zone is OB 4H
MAIN MOVE IN SHORT - TILL 0.5 of GLOBAL FIB LEVEL. SEE PRIVOIUS IDEA.
Demand zone also can be like fuel, so
Have a profitable day and don't forget to subscribe for more updates!
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EUR_AUD WILL GO DOWN|SHORT|
✅EUR_AUD price grew again
To retest the resistance of 1.7640
But it is a strong key level
So I think that there is a high chance
That we will see a bearish move down
SHORT🔥
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Dow Jones Index Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
US30 index keeps going up
But the price will soon hit
A strong horizontal resistance
Level around 42,876 from where
We will be expecting a local
Pullback and a move down
Sell!
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EUR-AUD Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-AUD made a retest
Of the key horizontal
Resistance level of 1.7640
From where we are already
Seeing a bearish pullback so
As we are locally bearish
Biased and we will be
Expecting a further
Bearish move down
Sell!
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AUD_USD LONG FROM RISING SUPPORT|
✅AUD_USD is trading along
The rising support line
And as the pair will soon retest it
I am expecting the price to go up
To retest the supply levels above 0.6460
LONG🚀
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GBP/USD Ready to Explode or Collapse? All Eyes on 1.3600British Pound (CFTC - CME)
Commercial traders increased their long positions by +1,839 contracts and short positions by +3,597. Net exposure remains negative, but the significant short increase suggests active hedging and risk management.
Non-Commercial traders (speculators) reduced their longs by -1,396 and increased their shorts by +1,827, signaling weakening sentiment toward the GBP.
Open Interest rose modestly by +465 → showing renewed engagement, though there’s clear divergence between Commercial and Non-Commercial positioning.
Implication: Net pressure remains bearish, but there's evidence of short saturation from Commercials, possibly hinting at a consolidation phase or reversal ahead.
USD Index (ICE Futures)
Non-Commercials increased both longs (+2,044) and shorts (+1,975), signaling indecision.
Commercials slightly increased long exposure (+689), while shorts remained mostly flat (-114).
Implication: The dollar shows cautious strengthening, but with no strong directional conviction. A period of ranging price action is likely.
2. Retail Sentiment
67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with only 33% long.
Volume favors short positions as well: 7,727 lots vs. 3,866 long.
Implication: From a contrarian perspective, the excessive short bias among retail traders supports a short-term bullish scenario, possibly driven by a short squeeze or liquidity run.
3. Historical Seasonality
May shows a historically bearish tendency:
10-Year Avg: -2.22%
5-Year Avg: -1.60%
2-Year Avg: -0.65%
Implication: Seasonal bias remains negative, but should be interpreted alongside COT and sentiment data to avoid misleading signals.
4. Technical Analysis
Price is currently trading inside a weekly resistance zone between 1.3513 and 1.3600, following a strong bounce from a dynamic support.
A previous structure break failed to follow through → bull trap was avoided.
The weekly RSI is rising from neutral levels, suggesting momentum is shifting upward.
Previous demand zones around 1.3176 and 1.3047 held well.
Implication: A potential breakout is forming, but it occurs near a key technical level. Without strong volume or fundamentals, the area may trigger a sell reaction.
5. Market Depth
There is a heavy cluster of short orders above current price, while long orders appear scattered and less aggressive.
This creates a liquidity magnet effect, which may lead to bullish spikes towards 1.3550–1.3600 before any meaningful distribution.
Implication: Potential upside extension in the short-term to hunt stops, followed by a bearish reaction.
🎯 Operational Outlook
Main Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish short-term, Bearish (Seasonal) mid-term
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 1.3550–1.3600
Support zone: Ascending trendline and 1.3340–1.3176
Likely Scenarios:
Price may spike toward 1.3550 to clear liquidity before facing rejection.
A confirmed weekly close above 1.3610 opens the door to 1.3750.
A drop below 1.3340 confirms structural reversal and bearish continuation.
AUDNZD: Long Trading Opportunity
AUDNZD
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long AUDNZD
Entry Point - 1.0821
Stop Loss - 1.0797
Take Profit - 1.0866
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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