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Gold Futures - Potential Springtime ReversalGold futures have been on a rally, but recent price action suggests a potential shift. Could we be witnessing a Wyckoff distribution forming? Understanding Wyckoff Distribution The Wyckoff distribution pattern occurs when large institutions begin selling off their positions to retail traders before a downtrend begins. This phase is often characterized by sideways price movement, false breakouts, and key "Signs of Weakness" (SOW) that hint at an impending sell-off. A Recent Sign of Weakness in Gold Futures A possible sign of weakness in gold futures was observed recently when prices gave a false break out at what retail traders would label "key levels". Historical Seasonal Trends: Spring Reversals Looking at historical data, Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI.com) has tracked seasonal gold price patterns for over 40 years. Their findings indicate that gold often experiences price reversals during the spring months. This aligns with the idea that we could be heading into a seasonally weak period, increasing the likelihood of a distribution phase playing out. What Traders Should Watch For As Gold rallies back towards a new all time high we should be aware that it may be just a false break to form the final phases of a distribution schematic. This would form an upthrust, and upthrust after distribution, followed by a sharp retracement back into the range and ultimately leading to a sell off and market reversal. Final Thoughts While nothing is certain, the combination of the financial institutions footprint and historical seasonal data suggests gold traders should proceed with caution. Whether you’re trading futures or investing in physical gold, staying aware of these patterns can help you make informed decisions. Do you think a Wyckoff distribution is playing out in gold? Share your thoughts in the comments!
COMEX:GC1!
by renegadeforex
EUR/USD: Bearish Outlook – Targeting 1.03630 & Below 📊 Market Structure & Key Levels EUR/USD is currently rejecting a key supply zone (1.0450 - 1.0480), showing strong signs of continued downside pressure. The pair is in a bearish trend, with price action confirming lower highs and lower lows, as seen in the Prime Market Terminal charts. 📉 Key Levels to Watch: Supply Zone: 1.0450 - 1.0480 (Strong resistance & liquidity zone) Demand Zone: 1.03630 - 1.03219 (Institutional liquidity target) Extended Bearish Target: 1.02687 (Deep liquidity grab area) 🔍 Trade Setup: Bearish Bias Towards Key Support Levels 📌 Entry: Sell between 1.0450 - 1.0480 🎯 TP1: 1.03630 (Liquidity Zone) 🎯 TP2: 1.03219 (Institutional Liquidity Grab) 🎯 TP3: 1.02687 (Extended Downside Target) ❌ SL: 1.05150 (Above Key Resistance) 📉 Why This Trade? (Prime Market Terminal Analysis) ✔️ Bearish Market Structure – The 1D & 4H trend remains bearish, confirming a downward trajectory. Supertrend is bearish, and price is trading below the 72 EMA & 288 EMA, showing weak bullish momentum. ✔️ Liquidity Targets Identified – Market depth analysis from Prime Market Terminal reveals a lack of strong buy orders above 1.0450, suggesting that sellers dominate. ✔️ Volume Profile Analysis – The visible range (VPVR) highlights a high-volume node at 1.03630, making it a strong area for price to seek liquidity. ✔️ Commitment of Traders (COT) Data – Institutional positioning indicates an increase in short contracts for the EUR, aligning with the bearish trend. ✔️ Order Flow & Market Depth – Prime Market Terminal shows institutional sellers stacking sell orders at 1.0450, while liquidity pools rest below 1.03630 and 1.03219, making these ideal targets for price. 📰 High-Impact News to Watch ⚠️ HICP Flash Inflation Data (EUR - March 3, 2025) – Any deviation from expectations could drive EUR volatility. ⚠️ ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD - March 3, 2025) – A stronger-than-expected report could strengthen USD and drive EUR/USD lower. ⚠️ Fed's Musalem Speech (March 3, 2025) – A hawkish stance could accelerate EUR/USD downside pressure. 📌 Final Thoughts: Follow the Trend & Manage Risk! EUR/USD remains firmly bearish, with liquidity resting below 1.03630. The confluence of institutional positioning, bearish trend confirmation, and market depth insights support a sell bias. Watch price action at key levels and manage your risk accordingly! 🔥 What’s your bias? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 🔥
Short
by LDForex_