Get started

Smartmoney

Gold Price Action Analysis – Using MMC (Mirror Market Concepts) 🔍 Overview: In this idea, we dive deep into XAU/USD's (Gold) short-term bearish move using a blend of Mirror Market Concepts (MMC) and Smart Money Concepts (SMC). The 15-minute chart provides an excellent visual of market psychology shifting, with CHoCHs, supply-demand zones, SR flips, and the Black Mind Curve highlighting the story of price. 🧩 Market Structure Breakdown: 🔵 1. Major Resistance Zone Formed Price pushed aggressively upward but met strong rejection near the major resistance zone. This zone acts as a ceiling for the bullish momentum—setting the first signal for a possible reversal. 🔵 2. Black Mind Curve Activated A descending Black Mind Curve was plotted to reflect the psychological shift from bullish to bearish. Price failed multiple times to break above this curve, highlighting strong internal weakness. The Black Mind Curve visually reinforces the bearish tone and offers a roadmap for probable lower highs. 🔵 3. Minor Resistance + SR Interchange As price dropped, it created a minor resistance. When price returned to this area and rejected it, this confirmed an SR Flip (Support-Resistance Interchange)—a classic MMC feature. Mirror Market Concepts suggest that old demand often mirrors into new supply. That's exactly what happens here. 🔵 4. Major CHoCH: Change of Character A decisive break of the bullish structure signaled a Major CHoCH, confirming bearish order flow. This is the moment smart money starts repositioning for shorts—liquidity has been grabbed above previous highs, and the direction shifts. 🔵 5. 50% Retracement After the impulsive drop, price retraced nearly 50%—a key area of interest for MMC traders. This level often acts as a decision point. In this case, price rejects the retracement, creating an ideal zone for re-entries. 🔵 6. Targeting the Demand Zone The projected target lies in a prior demand zone, which mirrors earlier supply structure. This aligns with MMC’s principle of "market reflection"—what was resistance becomes support again, and vice versa. 🎯 Trade Bias: Bearish Entry Confirmation: After CHoCH + rejection from 50% level + re-alignment with Black Mind Curve. SL: Just above the 50% retracement or last minor high. TP: At the marked target zone near historical demand. 🧠 Why MMC Works Here: MMC helps you see the market in reverse—where previous zones mirror and reflect. Combined with smart money triggers like CHoCHs, BOS, liquidity sweeps, and SR flips, this makes for a precise trading model that goes beyond basic support and resistance. The beauty of MMC is that it reveals where the crowd is wrong and where the real momentum lies. 🔑 Key Takeaways for Traders: The Black Mind Curve helps visualize hidden resistance paths. CHoCHs are crucial in understanding market intent. MMC allows traders to anticipate instead of react. High probability setups form where multiple MMC/SMC elements converge. Always wait for confirmation, not assumption.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
GBP-JPY Resistance Cluster! Sell! Hello,Traders! GBP-JPY made a retest Of the resistance cluster Of the rising and horizontal Resistance lines around 193.989 And we are already seeing a Bearish reaction so we will be Expecting a further bearish Move down Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TopTradingSignals
1
USD/JPY Breakdown: Is 140 the Next Target? Smart Money Says Yes!USD/JPY is currently in a highly interesting technical and macro phase, characterized by divergences between price action and institutional positioning, negative seasonal signals, and retail sentiment that goes against what would typically be expected in a reversal scenario. Let’s break it down: 1. Institutional Positioning (COT Report) The COT data reveals a mixed picture with bearish implications for USD/JPY: On the USD side, non-commercial traders continue to increase their net long exposure (+2,044 new long contracts this week). However, this rise is almost equally offset by +1,975 new shorts, indicating indecision and hedging activity. For the Japanese Yen, non-commercials (speculators) are significantly rebuilding long JPY positions, while commercials have started covering their short exposure. 📌 Implication: The net flow favors the Yen, meaning bearish pressure on USD/JPY. The increase in JPY long positions reflects expectations of a stronger Yen in the short to medium term. 2. Historical Seasonality Seasonal data reinforces the bearish bias: In May and June, USD/JPY has historically posted negative returns. The 5-year average shows -0.57 in May and -0.76 in June, with both the 2Y and 10Y averages confirming a similar downward seasonal pattern. 📌 Implication: The current seasonal window does not favor a USD rebound vs. the Yen. Historically, the likelihood of downside increases into early summer. 3. Retail Sentiment Retail traders are heavily long, with 64% positioned long on USD/JPY versus 36% short. 📌 Implication: From a contrarian perspective, this is a bearish signal. Markets tend to move against retail positioning, adding further downside risk. 4. Price Action & Technical Structure (Daily Chart) On the weekly chart: Price broke the key 144.00 support decisively, closing the week at 142.81. Structure shows lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend. RSI is falling but still above oversold levels, leaving room for further downside. First demand zone: 141.50–142.20. A confirmed break could open the way to 140.00–139.80. Key resistance on any pullback: 145.00–146.00. 📌 Implication: The confirmed break of support activated a bearish continuation setup, unless short-term bounces offer new sell opportunities near resistance. 5. Market Depth Market depth shows a strong cluster of long orders above current levels, while short volumes appear fragmented. This suggests any short-term rally could face aggressive selling between 144.50–145.50. 🎯 Conclusion & Operational Outlook The overall context points to a high probability of further downside in USD/JPY over the short to medium term: Smart money is rotating toward the Yen. Seasonal patterns historically support a drop in May–June. Contrarian retail sentiment adds additional bearish weight. The weekly chart confirms a break of structure, opening space below 141.50.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
GOLD Short Setup – OB Rejection + FVG Play to Weak Low 📉 XAUUSD | 4H Short Setup – Classic Smart Money Reversal Zone Gold is giving us a prime reversal opportunity off a stacked supply zone, aligning with: 🔵 79% Fibonacci Retracement 🟪 High-Timeframe Order Block (OB) 🚫 Failure to create a new high (bearish intent confirmed) Let’s break it down: 🔻 1. Price Structure Insight Clean swing high printed near 3400 Retraced down to a discount zone, then sharply reversed Price now tapping into a premium supply zone between 70.5% – 79% Fib 🟣 2. Key Zone Confluence 📍 Order Block: The final up-candle before a massive drop = institutional sell zone 📍 Fibonacci Levels: 70.5%–79% = premium sell levels 📍 Internal Liquidity: Price swept local highs before stalling 📍 Strong High Above: Untouched = inducement for future sweep (or rejection fuel) Everything screams Smart Money Sell Setup 📉 🎯 3. Trade Idea Sell Entry: Around 3,348 Stop Loss: Above OB & Strong High ~ 3,390 Take Profit: 3,120 (clear weak low = liquidity pool) ⚖️ 4. Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) 📥 Entry: 3,348 🔒 SL: 3,390 💰 TP: 3,120 ✅ RRR ≈ 1:5.4 Perfect textbook SMC setup—high confluence + asymmetric RRR = 🔑 🧠 5. Why This Setup Works Retail traders are lured into longs after bullish push Smart Money taps OB, rejects hard at premium Target: internal liquidity resting at weak low (3120) This creates a controlled sell-off that avoids grabbing the strong high 🟢 Drop a “GOLDEN SHORT 🪙💥” if you caught this setup before the crowd 💾 Save it for reference – this is how institutions trap liquidity 📤 Share with your trading fam — this setup is 🔥🔥🔥
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will the Bears Strike Back from 1.14? 📍1. TECHNICAL CONTEXT EUR/USD is trading around 1.1405, inside an ascending channel and right within a supply zone (1.1370–1.1470), which already triggered a rejection on April 16. Price action currently shows hesitation, with three consecutive candles at the top of the channel and RSI divergence, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum after an overextension. The bullish trendline from April remains intact and validated, but the upside is narrowing. Likely scenario: bullish exhaustion followed by a pullback towards 1.1270–1.1220, with a potential retest of both the trendline and the lower boundary of the channel. 📊2. COT REPORT (USD & EUR) – Updated to May 20 USD Index: Non-Commercials added +2,044 net longs, but also +1,975 new shorts. Open Interest rose by +2,207 → a more active market, but still mixed. Net exposure remains neutral to slightly bearish for the dollar. EURO FX: Non-Commercials cut -3,587 longs and added +6,814 shorts, while Commercials increased longs by +16,796. Speculative funds are gradually shifting short on the Euro, while Commercials continue to hedge long. → Combined read: Large speculators are reducing their Euro exposure and staying cautious on the Dollar. Short-term pressure on EUR/USD remains bearish, though no macro reversal yet. 📉3. SENTIMENT & POSITIONING Retail sentiment shows 71% of traders are short EUR/USD — a classically contrarian signal. However, price is now sitting in a liquidity cluster where smart money might exploit a final squeeze before a real reversal. Market depth shows strong imbalance, with long orders stacked above current price — suggesting potential stop hunt already triggered or about to fade. 🧭4. SEASONALITY Historically, May is a bearish month for EUR/USD: -0.0079 on 20-year average, and -0.0163 on 10-year average. Seasonality supports late May weakness and potential downside continuation into early June. ✅ TRADING OUTLOOK 📌 Primary Bias: short-term corrective bearish, waiting for clearer reversal signals. 📌 Key Reaction Zone: 1.1400–1.1470 → structural short area, already tested. 📌 Bearish Target: 1.1270 > 1.1210 (golden pocket + trendline confluence) 📌 Setup invalidation: daily close above 1.1470 with volume → possible extension to 1.1550/1.1580 📌 Macro support: Commercials remain long on the Euro → underlying structure still bullish, but too early to fade short-term bearish momentum.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
EURCAD (Supply/Demand + OTE + Liquidity)Hello traders! We have valid 705 fib level, there we can expect reversal + mitigation demand zone. Now price go to local correction. In local 0.5 fib level you will see big volume like confirmation before impulse till Demand. Entry: confirmation on LTF in POI Target: First problem zone is OB 4H MAIN MOVE IN SHORT - TILL 0.5 of GLOBAL FIB LEVEL. SEE PRIVOIUS IDEA. Demand zone also can be like fuel, so Have a profitable day and don't forget to subscribe for more updates! If you like this idea drop a like, leave a comment.
Short
by Hastur_smc
USD-CHF Free Signal! Buy! Hello,Traders! USD-CHF is once again Retesting a horizontal support Level around 0.8189 and the Pair seems to have formed A H&S pattern, so we are bearish Biased, however, a local bullish Rebound from the support Is possible so while risky A long trade still makes sense With the Take Profit of 0.8238 And the Stop Loss of 0.8184 Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TopTradingSignals
1