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Smartmoney

Played it perfectly: grabbed long liquidity and rode down to ourHey everyone! Move unfolded exactly as we planned: Minor price spike – a classic false breakout to collect liquidity in the long zone. No valid short formation, so I stayed sidelined during that spike. Once long liquidity was swept, the market reversed sharply downward—right toward our objective. Price then steadily slid to our lower target, closing the trade with the planned profit. 📊 Key takeaways: Don’t force entries without clear setups. Liquidity grabs in line with your overall scenario are powerful signals. Patience and discipline remain the ultimate edge. What are your thoughts? Share your experiences with similar liquidity hunts!
Short
by SimonCryptoShmel
Mechanical rangesMany traders will talk about things like "Smart Money Concepts" (SMC) and think they have found something new. The truth is, everything in trading stems back to Liquidity. There is no "Algo" nobody is out to get you specifically. The market is always right, where you position yourself is your own choice. I have written several posts on mechanical trading, recorded a number of streams. The more mechanical you can make the process, the less the emotions have a chance to kick your ass. Let me give you a very simple method of being able to identify the ranges. Ignore the timeframes as this will work on any of them, on most instruments. (I say most, as some behave differently due to how it attracts liquidity). Lets assume high end crypto such as Bitcoin (BTC) and of course Forex in the general sense, stocks, commodities etc. This is simple - only 2 rules. You start by zooming out and giving yourself a general feel for the trend. Let's say this looks to be an uptrend - we now need to understand the rules. An opposing candle can simply be defined by a different colour. If the trend is up (Green) and we see a red candle - then it's an opposing candle. The inverse is true, if we are down and the trend is Red. Then a Green candle would be opposing. This is only half of the story. The second rule is a pullback candle or even a sequence of candles. This simply means either the very same opposing candle that doesn't make a new high or low (depending on the trend up not making fresh highs or down not taking new lows). In this image, you can see we have in one candle both an opposing and pullback in one candle. This means we can now mark the high of the range. Working backwards to identify the swing range low. This easy method means I can draw a range exactly the same and mechanically every single time. Giving me a mechanical range. We could then get a lot more technical by looking for liquidity, 50% of the range or places such as supply or demand areas. But these are all for other posts. For now, getting a range on the higher timeframes means you can work down and down into a timeframe you are likely to want to trade on. These ranges will give clues to draws and runs of liquidity. This will also help identify changes in the character and fresh breaks of structure. Here's another post I posted on the mechanical structures and techniques. More in the next post. Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
11
Gold:bullish wedge inside a rising channel-double trap for bearsInside the major upward channel, gold formed a falling wedge — and, of course, faked a breakdown. But the move reversed quickly: price reclaimed the wedge, surged on volume, and held above the key 3363–3368 area. This isn't just a bounce — it's a structural reclaim in line with the broader trend. Price is now in the upper part of the rising channel and has broken a local downtrend line, reinforcing the bullish signal. Consolidation around 3380–3395 might be the last pause before acceleration. Above that lies a volume gap — no resistance until 3452. MACD is flipping bullish, RSI turning upward, and volume confirms smart money presence. Classic: trap below, breakout above. As long as 3363 holds — longs remain in control.
TVC:GOLDLong
by TotoshkaTrades
2
GBPUSD short re-entryGBPUSD – I Got Clipped. Now I’m Coming Back With Intent. 📅 Monday | June 23, 2025 Yes — I got stopped out. That’s execution, not failure. Clean sweep of Asia’s high. Textbook. Liquidity taken. Weak hands shaken. Now the real move can begin. 🔁 This 1H close is my greenlight for re-entry. I don’t hesitate when the market gives me the same setup twice — It’s still: ✅ Downtrend dominant ✅ Upthrust confirmed ✅ Sellers stepping back in ✅ Price under key rejection zone If this bar closes bearish, I’m short again — this time with full intent. 📉 Target: 3r+ and beyond 🔥 London
Short
by theeOperator90
GBP/JPY in Trouble? Smart Money Rotates Into Yen📊 1. COT Analysis JPY (Japanese Yen): Non-Commercial Net Long: +54,615 – showing strong long accumulation since March. Recent Changes: Long: -5,319 Short: +1,235 ➡️ Mixed signals short-term, but overall net long positioning remains strong. Speculative funds are still heavily favoring the Yen, suggesting potential continued strength. GBP (British Pound): Non-Commercial Net Long: +51,634 (111,076 long – 59,442 short) Recent Changes: Long: +7,404 Short: -9,015 ➡️ Specs are still net long on GBP, but exposure has slightly decreased. The divergence with the Yen is narrowing. 🔎 COT Summary: Both currencies are being bought by speculators, but the JPY has shown more consistent long-term positioning. Net momentum appears to shift in favor of Yen strength, pointing to potential downside for GBP/JPY. 📅 2. Seasonality – June Historically, June is a weak month for GBP/JPY, especially over 20y, 15y, 5y, and 2y windows. Monthly average return is negative across all major historical timeframes (e.g. -1.2415 over 10 years). ➡️ Seasonality reinforces a bearish bias for June. 🧠 3. Retail Sentiment Short: 52% Long: 48% ➡️ Retail positioning is balanced, slightly skewed short. Not a strong contrarian signal, but also doesn’t support a bullish breakout scenario. 📉 4. Technical Analysis Current Structure: Ascending channel from mid-May → currently testing lower boundary. Key Zone: 195.600–196.520 is a major supply zone with multiple rejections. Recent Candle Action: Bearish pin bar + engulfing candle → strong rejection from resistance. Downside Targets: First: 193.076 Second: 191.439 Break of the channel would further confirm a trend reversal. ➡️ Price action supports a short scenario with high reward-to-risk toward lower zones.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
EURJPY Just Broke Out – Is This the Start of a Summer Rally?📊 1. COT Report – Euro & Yen EUR (Euro FX – CME): Non-Commercials: Long: +5,968 | Short: -4,293 → Net Long increasing Commercials: Long: +11,480 | Short: +24,451 → Net Short → Speculators are clearly bullish on the euro. JPY (Japanese Yen – CME): Non-Commercials: Long: -5,319 | Short: +1,235 → Net Long decreasing Commercials: Long: +31,893 | Short: +25,462 → Hedging, but still net short → The yen continues to be sold, especially by institutional players. 📌 EUR/JPY COT Summary: Speculators are buying EUR and selling JPY → strong bullish bias on EUR/JPY. 🧠 2. Retail Sentiment 80% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY, with an average entry at 161.50 Current price is around 167.20 → retail is heavily underwater ✅ Strong contrarian bullish signal 📉 3. Technical Analysis Price broke out of a long-term range, printing new yearly highs RSI is overbought but with no active bearish divergence Price sits inside a major supply zone between 166.50 and 168.00, where previous rejections occurred A potential pullback to the 164.60–164.15 area aligns with ascending trendline support 🟡 Likely Scenario: A healthy technical pullback to 164.50–165.00 to cool off RSI, followed by a continuation higher if supported by momentum and COT positioning 📅 4. Seasonality June is historically a bullish month for EUR/JPY: 5-year avg: +1.167% 2-year avg: +2.41% → Seasonality supports more upside into early July 🌍 5. Macro Context BoJ remains dovish, no sign of imminent tightening ECB is steady but relatively less dovish → rate differential still favors the euro No signs yet of verbal intervention from Japan.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
10
Smart Money Just Flipped Bearish on USD/CAD. Are You Still Long?🧠 1. COT Context & Institutional Flows 🇨🇦 CAD COT Report (CME) – June 10, 2025 Non-Commercials (speculators): net short 93,143 contracts (19,651 long vs. 112,794 short), with a short reduction of -14,319 → early bearish unwinding. Commercials: net long 91,207 contracts (223,285 long vs. 132,078 short), with strong accumulation (+27,999 longs). 🔄 Net open interest change: +18,436 → renewed institutional interest on the long CAD side. 🇺🇸 USD Index COT Report (ICE) – June 10, 2025 Non-Commercials: net long 1,402 contracts (17,027 long vs. 15,625 short), with a +1,279 increase in longs → modest USD support. Commercials remain net short -35 contracts, no clear shift. 🔄 Total open interest +2,652 → mild bullish interest in USD. 📌 Implication: Strong institutional support for CAD, USD mildly supported. Net positioning favors downside pressure on USD/CAD. 💹 2. Technical Analysis & Price Action Primary trend: clearly bearish from the 1.38 zone. Current price: 1.3552, testing a macro demand zone (1.3470–1.3540). Daily RSI remains deeply oversold → possible technical bounce, but no reversal structure confirmed. Recent candles show lower highs and lower lows, with no bullish momentum. 📌 Implication: The bearish trend remains in control. A technical rebound is possible, but bias stays short as long as price trades below 1.3640. 📈 3. Retail Sentiment 77% of retail traders are long USD/CAD, with an average entry at 1.3646. Only 23% are short, positioned better at 1.3790. 📌 Implication: Retail is heavily long → contrarian bearish signal confirmed. 📊 4. Seasonality June is historically weak for USD/CAD: 5Y Avg: -0.0118 2Y Avg: -0.0081 The June seasonal curve shows a stronger downside acceleration into the second half of the month. 📌 Implication: Seasonality adds downward pressure into month-end.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
Retail is 86% Long on GBPCHF… But Smart Money Is Setting a Trap📊 1. RETAIL SENTIMENT Long Positions: 86% – Average Entry: 1.1196 Short Positions: 14% – Average Entry: 1.0999 Current Price: 1.1010 Analysis: Retail positioning is heavily skewed towards longs, with the average long entry significantly above the current market price. This creates vulnerability to downside pressure through stop-loss hunting or a bearish squeeze. Such extreme retail bias often acts as a contrarian signal: smart money may continue pushing the price lower to flush out retail traders before any meaningful reversal occurs. 🧾 2. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS – COT REPORT (June 10, 2025) 🔹 British Pound (GBP) Non-Commercials (Speculators): Net Long increasing by +7.4K → now at +51.6K Commercials (Hedgers): Net Short decreasing by -13.9K → now at -60.5K Total Open Interest: Decreased by -19K Interpretation: Speculators are maintaining strong long exposure on GBP, while commercials are covering some shorts—potentially signaling a short-term pause in bullish momentum. However, the drop in overall open interest suggests possible consolidation or short-term uncertainty. 🔹 Swiss Franc (CHF) Non-Commercials: Net Shorts reduced by -2.7K Commercials: Net Longs increased by +2.5K Total Open Interest: Increased by +5.6K Interpretation: The CHF is gaining strength. Commercial participants are increasing their long exposure while speculators reduce their shorts—this positive divergence supports a bullish outlook on CHF, especially against retail-heavy long pairs like GBP. 📈 3. CHF SEASONALITY – JUNE Average CHF Performance in June: 20-Year Avg: +0.0099 15-Year Avg: +0.0138 10-Year Avg: +0.0099 5-Year Avg: +0.0039 Analysis: Historically, June is a seasonally strong month for the Swiss Franc. This seasonal bias aligns with current macro conditions, reinforcing the bullish case for CHF. 📊 4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (Daily Chart) Pattern: Descending channel with a recent false breakdown and re-entry Key Support Zone: 1.0980–1.1000 → tested and defended with a bullish wick Target Resistance: 1.1170–1.1200 → prior retail cluster, supply zone, and average long entry Scenario: A confirmed breakout of the channel could trigger a short squeeze toward 1.1170–1.1200 📌 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK The current GBP/CHF setup is technically and sentimentally delicate. The price sits on a major daily demand zone, while sentiment and macro flows suggest downside pressure remains in play—but also allow room for a potential contrarian rally (short squeeze). 👉 Action Plan: Wait for intraday/daily confirmation: Go long above 1.1045 (breakout confirmation) → target 1.1170 Go short below 1.0980 (bearish continuation) → target 1.0860
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5