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EUR/USD About to Trap the Bears? Final Push Before the Drop! EUR/USD is showing a solid short-term bullish structure, with a move initiated from the demand base around 1.1560, fueling a strong rally toward the current level near 1.1770. Price is now approaching a significant supply zone between 1.1790 and 1.1875, previously responsible for the last major bearish swing. This area also aligns with projected Fibonacci levels (25%-100%), reinforcing its relevance as a possible inflection point. This movement suggests there’s still room for price to push higher, likely completing the final leg of this bullish cycle before a more convincing short setup develops. At this stage, Fibonacci levels are not acting as firm supports, but rather as hypothetical pullback projections: once price enters the 1.1800–1.1875 area, it will be key to monitor for signs of exhaustion. A rejection here may initiate a bearish retracement toward 1.1670–1.1650, in line with the 62–70.5% fib levels. Retail sentiment remains highly contrarian: 76% of traders are short, positioning themselves too early against the trend. This imbalance adds fuel for a potential continuation higher, as the market may seek to "squeeze" these premature shorts. Additionally, the COT report confirms growing institutional interest in the euro, with non-commercials increasing their net longs, while USD net long exposure continues to shrink. Seasonality adds further confluence: late July is historically bullish for EUR/USD, suggesting one final leg up could materialize before a typically weaker August. ✅ Trading Outlook EUR/USD is technically aligned for a final push toward the 1.1800–1.1875 premium zone, where a potential short opportunity may arise. The rally is currently driven by overextended retail shorts and supportive institutional flows. Only after price interacts with the upper supply zone should reversal signs be evaluated, with correction targets around 1.1670–1.1650. The ideal play: wait for confirmation of bearish intent in August, when seasonal weakness typically kicks in.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
XAUUSD LIVE OUTLOOK – JULY 23, 2025Good evening, traders—let’s get this right, no mistakes. Gold hit 3,438, then pulled back and found support exactly in the 3,380–3,390 zone. Here’s your precise update: 🔸 HTF OVERVIEW (H4 → H1) New High & Liquidity Sweep: A clean breakout to 3,438 invalidated every old supply. Primary Demand: Price settled into the 3,380–3,390 H4 order block (untested FVG beneath). H1 confirms this blue zone as the critical buy area. Invalidated Supply: No valid sell zones until we carve fresh structure above 3,438. 🔹 LTF PRECISION (M30 → M15) M30 Flow: Spike to 3,438, then instant drop into 3,380–3,390. Volume spiked on the decline, then eased as price held. M15 Structure: Inside 3,380–3,390, watch for a clean BOS above 3,395—that’s your bull‑bear pivot. Until then, this zone is the edge of the knife. 🎯 KEY ZONES & TRIGGERS Buy Zone #1 (Live): 3,380–3,390 Confluence: H4 order block + unfilled FVG + H1 swing low Trigger: M15 BOS above 3,395 and retest. Buy Zone #2 (Backup): 3,350–3,360 For a deeper pullback—untested H4 demand. Sell Zone: 3,420–3,438 Confluence: unfilled H4 FVG + premium supply Fade only on clear M15 rejection (pin‑bar/engulf). Decision Pivot: 3,395 Above = bullish continuation; below = stand aside. ➡️ ACTION PLAN Longs: Enter on M15 close above 3,395 and retest; targets at 3,420 then 3,438. Shorts: Only on rally into 3,420–3,438 with a decisive rejection candle. Invalidation: A sustained break below 3,380 warns of a deeper flush toward 3,350–3,360. 🚀 CALL TO ACTION If this nailed your edge, smash that Like, Follow @GoldFxMinds for daily sniper updates, and Boost this post so your fellow traders don’t miss these live levels! Drop a 🔥 if you’re ready to strike the next move. Disclosure: I’m part of TradeNation’s Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their chart feed. — GoldFxMinds
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Crude Oil Rebound Incoming? Key Demand Zone 📈 1. Technical Analysis – Daily Chart (CL1!) The price has returned to a demand zone between 64.60 and 65.30, an area that previously triggered strong bullish reactions. The July 22nd candle shows a clear lower wick, indicating potential buyer absorption and a possible short-term reversal. The next key resistance lies between 67.80 and 68.80, which aligns with a well-defined supply zone. Daily RSI remains weak but shows signs of bullish divergence, suggesting potential accumulation. Bias: bullish from current levels, targeting 67.50 – 68.00. Invalidation on a daily close below 64.40. 2. Institutional Sentiment – COT Report (CFTC, July 15, 2025) Non-Commercials (Speculators) Long: 308,915 (↓ -24,223) Short: 146,488 (↑ +22,724) Net Position: sharply declining → bearish divergence in speculative sentiment Commercials (Hedgers) Long: 857,803 (↑ +66,342) Short: 1,046,199 (↑ +18,118) Net Position: still negative, but improving → reduced hedging = less downside pressure 📉 Interpretation: Funds are closing longs and adding shorts, showing bearish positioning. However, commercials are slowly reducing their hedging exposure, which could indicate short-term stabilization if the technical support holds. 3. Seasonality Periods analyzed: 20, 15, 10, 5, and 2 years July historically shows negative average returns: -0.71% (20Y) -1.26% (15Y) -1.37% (10Y) The seasonal pattern indicates continued cyclical weakness into August. 📌 Interpretation: The summer period typically brings seasonal bearish pressure, which aligns with current 2025 performance. 🌐 4. Macro & Fundamentals EIA inventory builds for 3 consecutive weeks → demand weakness in the U.S. No additional OPEC+ cuts announced → supply remains ample Stable inflation data in the U.S. and China → no uptick in energy demand Overall macro data is neutral with a slightly bearish short-term bias
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
USDJPYDate: July 22,2025 Session: Tokyo and London session Pair: USDJPY Bias: Long 1. Clean liquidity pool left unswept from last week's NYC Open (Thursday). Took this trade earlier today but looks like price wanted to consolidate in the liquid pool its currently in. I still hold the same idea and think the sweep will definitely take place sometime this week. Now looks like the perfect time to enter. If Asia session cant get it done its up to London and New York session. Entry:147.534 Stop Loss:147.215 Target:148.768 RR:3.89
Long
by Dave1147