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Bitcoin – ATH Sweep or Breakout?Bitcoin is pushing into a critical decision point as it challenges the previous all-time high near 110k. After a strong push out of a rounded bottom formation with clean higher lows, price has now broken above the last visible resistance area and is hovering just under the ATH liquidity. This rally has been aggressive, but the reaction here will determine whether this move becomes an extended breakout or a classic trap. Liquidity and Key Resistance The ATH zone around 110k carries a large pool of liquidity, and price is now testing it for the first time since the breakout. We’ve already had a clean break above the prior resistance zone, but we haven’t yet seen a confirmed close above ATH with convincing volume. If price manages to close strongly above this level on the 4H or daily chart, that would be a sign that bulls are in full control. Until then, the possibility of a sweep and rejection remains firmly on the table. Sweep Scenario and Downside Levels If we fail to close convincingly above the ATH and instead see a wick through followed by a strong reversal, that would confirm the sweep. In that case, I’d expect short setups to activate quickly, with downside targets sitting around 105k. This level marks the structure support below the most recent breakout, and would be a logical point for price to rebalance before continuing any broader uptrend. A rejection from current levels would also trap late longs and provide fuel for a quick retracement. Bullish Breakout Scenario If we do get that proper breakout above 110k, backed by strong volume and continuation candles, the upside opens fast. There’s very little structure above the ATH, so price could move cleanly up into the next round psychological target around 115k. This move would confirm continuation of the higher timeframe trend and offer short-term breakout retests for potential long re-entries. Volume and Candle Confirmation Are Crucial At this stage, the setup is binary and all about confirmation. A clean 4H or daily close above ATH with follow-through volume will flip the bias fully bullish. But if we get signs of exhaustion and a failed breakout attempt, the sweep setup becomes highly probable. Waiting for confirmation here is key, rather than trying to front-run the move. Conclusion Bitcoin is sitting right at a high-stakes level. We either continue into price discovery toward 115k if momentum follows through, or we see a classic liquidity sweep and rejection back into 105k. The clean structure and recent higher lows support both sides of the argument, but execution will depend on how price reacts around the ATH. Either way, this zone is the key pivot for the next major swing. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
TRADENATION:BTCUSD
by TehThomas
49
EURJPY Weekly Analysis (MMC + SMC) - Trend Expansion + Target🧠 Contextual Overview: EURJPY has been on a strong long-term bullish rally, fueled by institutional demand and consistent volume expansion patterns. This pair is approaching a critical macro resistance/reversal zone around the 175–176 level, where historically large players have shown interest in redistributing or taking profit. This analysis uses the MMC (Market Mechanics Concept) integrated with SMC (Smart Money Concepts) to provide a complete perspective on price structure, order flow, and volume behavior. 📊 Structural Breakdown: 🔹 1. Volume Expansion as a Leading Indicator Volume precedes price — this is a foundational MMC principle. The recent aggressive impulse to the upside is backed by clear volume expansion visible on higher time frames. This type of movement indicates smart money accumulation and commitment, rather than retail-driven volatility. A key insight: Volume Expansion typically signals trend continuation, not reversal—unless a liquidity grab or divergence shows up in reversal zones. 🔹 2. Break of Structure (BOS) Confirms Trend Continuation A clear BOS occurred when price violated previous swing highs around the 165–167 range. This BOS suggests a new bullish leg is forming, confirming the market has transitioned from consolidation (accumulation) to distribution (markup phase). 🔹 3. Current Price Path: Heading into a Key Reversal Zone (175–176) This zone has been mapped based on previous supply imbalances and historical resistance. Price may tap into this zone before we see either: A clean continuation above (indicating absorption of supply), or A rejection or smart money sell-off pattern (distribution, divergence, or exhaustion candles). Institutions tend to execute significant moves in these areas — watch for liquidity sweep traps and break-of-structure (BOS) on lower timeframes for confirmation. 🧱 Support Zones & Safety Net: 🔸 Major Support: 155–157 Zone This is a historically significant demand block, respected multiple times since 2023. A drop into this region could offer a prime long-term swing entry, should price reject the reversal zone. Also acts as invalidity for current bullish structure. A weekly close below this would signal a potential trend shift or deeper correction. 📉 Technical Patterns & Confluences: Trendline Breakout + Retest occurred from 2024 into early 2025. This is a classic break-and-retest continuation pattern, confirming bullish interest from smart money. Price consolidated (reaccumulation) and exploded upward with volume expansion, aligning with Wyckoff theory’s markup phase. Strong candles with minimal upper wicks = clear sign of institutional commitment. 🎯 Trade Strategy & Scenarios: 🟢 Bullish Continuation Scenario: If price breaks above 176.000 with volume and closes weekly bullish, expect continuation toward 180.00+ in coming months. Watch for: Clean BOS above the reversal zone Volume expansion confirmation Retest of breakout level (176–174) for safe re-entry 🔴 Bearish Rejection Scenario: If price rejects the reversal zone with bearish engulfing or divergence, expect a retracement back toward 165–162 short-term, and possibly 157–155 long-term. Lower time frame structure shift (BOS to the downside) will confirm early exit from bulls or reversal setups for bears. 🧠 Psychological Perspective: Smart Money uses reversal zones to entice late buyers before triggering liquidity grabs. Reversal zones serve as liquidity magnets, often leading to false breakouts before true direction is revealed. Retail traders often buy into strength at these levels, providing liquidity for institutional exits. 📌 Summary: ✅ Trend: Strong bullish ✅ Structure: Clean BOS with volume confirmation ✅ Next Key Level: 175–176 (Reversal Zone) ✅ Strategy: Monitor for rejection/continuation; align with volume + structure ✅ Volume Behavior: Expansion supports trend continuation 🔖 Final Thoughts: The EURJPY pair presents a highly educational and strategic opportunity. Whether you trade intraday or swing, this zone (175–176) will define the market direction for the next few months. Use volume, structure shifts, and institutional behavior to guide your trades, not just candlestick patterns.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
GOLD (XAUUSD) 4H Technical Analysis – Channel Breakout & Target🧠 Executive Summary: The GOLD market has completed a key structural shift following a successful bearish trendline breakout, and is now trading within a well-formed ascending price channel. Price action has recently bounced from the channel support area, which aligns closely with a retested zone that was previously resistance. All signs now point to a potential continuation of the bullish leg—but only if the current structure holds. This analysis outlines the technical foundation, key trading zones, price action psychology, and risk management factors that define this setup. 🔍 Technical Breakdown 🔸 1. Trendline Breakout – The Structural Shift The bearish trendline, which previously capped multiple upside moves throughout June, has finally been broken. The breakout was accompanied by higher volume and larger bullish candles, indicating momentum. After the breakout, price pulled back near the trendline and respected the newly flipped support zone. This forms a classic Breakout–Retest–Continuation pattern, one of the most reliable in trend reversal scenarios. 🔸 2. Formation of Ascending Channel – A New Bullish Structure After the breakout, price action established a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows, confirming the birth of a new ascending channel. The channel support (around 3,320–3,330) has been tested multiple times and held strong. The channel resistance lies between 3,390–3,400, which is now the next short-term target if bulls maintain control. The channel offers both trend direction and entry timing opportunities as price bounces between its boundaries. 🔸 3. Retest Zone – Buyer’s Territory The price is currently bouncing off the mid-channel zone, where the previous downtrend resistance overlaps with current channel support. This confluence area is where smart money often enters after institutional accumulation at the base (around 3,270). The bullish wick rejections around this zone signal a likely continuation toward the upper channel. 📈 Price Behavior & Market Psychology What’s happening here isn't just lines and candles—there’s a psychological story unfolding: Fear drove the market lower, respecting the bearish trendline until late June. Hope and buyer aggression surged once the breakout confirmed. Now we’re in the "belief" phase, where traders await confirmation of the new trend. Many are watching for entry confirmation at support zones, and as long as fear doesn’t return (i.e., price breaking below 3,320), the structure remains valid. 🧭 Key Technical Levels to Watch Level Type Price Range Notes Major Support Zone 3,270–3,285 Key buyer zone, invalidation of bullish case below this Channel Support 3,320–3,330 Retest zone after breakout, current active level Mid-Channel Area 3,350–3,360 Decision zone – price may build momentum here Channel Resistance 3,390–3,400 First bullish target, potential breakout area Breakout Target 3,420–3,440 If price breaks channel resistance with volume 🧮 Trade Setup Ideas (Educational – Not Financial Advice) 🟢 Long Setup Option 1: Entry: Upon confirmation above 3,340–3,345 with bullish engulfing candle or breakout bar. Stop-Loss: Below 3,320 or slightly below channel support. Take Profit: Partial at 3,390 (channel top), full at 3,420–3,440 breakout zone. R:R Ratio: 1:2.5+ (highly favorable) 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Risk Management) If price closes below 3,320 with momentum, expect a revisit to the 3,270–3,285 support. This invalidates the current bullish channel structure and might bring in short-term bearish pressure. Avoid long positions until new structure is formed. 🧠 Educational Takeaway for Traders This analysis highlights the importance of: Structure-based entries: Instead of chasing candles, you wait for confluence and entry triggers. Multiple timeframe confirmation: Higher timeframes also show bullish bias, giving confidence to 4H trades. Risk management: The current setup allows tight stop losses relative to potential reward, making it attractive. By combining trendline breakouts, channel formations, and support/resistance flips, you significantly increase the probability of a successful trade. 📌 Final Thoughts: Gold is giving traders a clean and structured opportunity. The market has shown strength through structure, not just random price spikes. With the ascending channel intact and price respecting support zones, there is a solid foundation for a bullish continuation toward 3,400 and beyond. But as always, confirmation is key. Wait for price action to validate your bias, and never ignore risk management.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
1
EURUSD – Bearish Reversal Confirmed After Structural BreakEURUSD has shifted out of its bullish environment after a sustained rally inside a clean ascending channel. Price recently rejected a resistance zone that capped previous buying pressure and has now started to rotate downward. This marks the first serious challenge to the trend and sets the tone for a potential bearish phase. Channel Breakdown and Price Behavior The ascending channel had been respected for several sessions, guiding price upward with consistent higher highs and higher lows. The recent breakdown from this structure is significant, as it shows the market is no longer willing to support higher prices within that controlled environment. This type of breakout often signals a loss of momentum and increased volatility in the opposite direction. Break of the Low and Shift in Structure After breaking the channel, price also took out a major internal low, which had previously held during retracements. This is a key signal of a structural shift, confirming that the uptrend has been interrupted. When price breaks a low that buyers had been defending, it shows sellers have stepped in with conviction and are likely aiming lower targets. Short-Term Target and Reaction Zone The first area of interest sits just below current price where a support shelf and price inefficiencies line up. This zone, marked with the dollar sign symbol on the chart, may attract a short-term reaction. If buyers are still present, this is where they would likely try to step in. However, the rejection from resistance and the structural break suggest this level could eventually give way. Imbalance Zone Below and Liquidity Target If that support fails, the next high-probability draw is the large untested imbalance sitting further below. This zone has remained untouched since the rally began and represents unfinished business for the market. Price often seeks out these inefficiencies, especially after trend shifts, making it a natural target for sellers if momentum continues. Conclusion EURUSD is showing clear signs of bearish pressure after rejecting resistance, breaking structure, and leaving behind unmitigated downside targets. As long as we remain below the broken low, the path of least resistance points lower. The imbalance zone below remains the key destination unless the market shows signs of reversal higher. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Short
by TehThomas
58
AUD-USD Very Strong Uptrend! Buy! Hello,Traders! AUD-USD is trading in a Very strong uptrend and The pair broke a key horizontal Level around 0.6540 which Is now a support and we Are already seeing a rebound So we are bullish biased And we will be expecting A further move up Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TopTradingSignals
1
Bitcoin - Rejection From Major Resistance, Eyes on 103.8K SupporBitcoin is once again reacting to a major resistance zone around 108.8K, a level that has consistently rejected price in the past. The market attempted a breakout but failed to sustain momentum, forming multiple wicks and signs of weakness near the highs. This repeated rejection suggests that sellers are still in control up here and that this zone remains a strong ceiling for price. Immediate Downside Scenario With bearish pressure building at resistance, price is now pulling back and eyeing the first key support level around 103.8K. This zone previously acted as a significant base, with an imbalance overlap and structural demand from past price action. If price taps into this zone and buyers defend it, we could see a recovery bounce and potentially another retest of the upper resistance. Breakdown Risk and Bearish Expansion However, if 103.8K fails to hold, this opens the door for a deeper correction. The next logical downside target would be in the 98K region, where a higher timeframe imbalance sits and where price last found strong demand during the last major push up. This would also align with a full sweep of recent liquidity build-ups below. Bullish Recovery Path In the bullish case, holding 103.8K could initiate a rebound back toward the 108.8K resistance. This would likely depend on a solid reaction and displacement from the support zone, potentially forming a new higher low structure. For bulls to regain full control, we would need to see a clean breakout above the resistance zone with continuation. Key Zones to Watch The red resistance zone near 108.8K remains the clear invalidation for further upside, while the grey support block around 103.8K is the first major level that could decide the short-term trend. If that breaks, the purple demand zone near 98K is a high-probability area for price to find support again. Conclusion Bitcoin is still stuck between a strong resistance ceiling and a critical mid-range support zone. The rejection from the top signals that we may see downside in the near term, but whether this turns into a full reversal or just a retracement depends entirely on how price reacts around 103.8K. Hold it and we bounce, break it and we likely drop toward 98K. Keep watching how price behaves at these levels to gauge momentum and direction. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Short
by TehThomas
47
GOLD Short From Resistance! Sell! Hello,Traders! GOLD made a bullish Rebound from the support Below just as we predicted in Our previous analysis but Gold is still trading in the Downtrend as the lower lows And higher highs are intact And the structure is healthy So after the price retested the Horizontal resistance above Around 3,310$ we are Likely to see a further Bearish move down Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by TopTradingSignals
3