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EURUSD 3 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - Taste of Trade WAR!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 3 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment " Strike the bound, and the free will take heed " Market Volatility and Geopolitical Strategy: Assessing the Implications of a Trump Presidency Recent market movements underscore a critical narrative: A second Trump administration carries significant potential to reignite the trade policy volatility that defined his first term. Historical precedent offers a clear lens—within weeks of taking office in 2017, President Trump implemented tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, upending decades of trade consensus. Investors initially dismissed these measures as negotiation tactics, but markets are now pricing in a more structural shift. As of this week’s open, risk-on sentiment reflects renewed acceptance of Trump’s uncompromising stance, particularly following his social media assertion that “the pain from tariffs will be worth the price.” A Businessman’s Approach to Geopolitics Trump’s career as a dealmaker suggests a presidency anchored in transactional realism. His administration’s “America First” doctrine—evident in the rapid escalation of the U.S.-China trade war—demonstrates a willingness to weaponize economic policy to recalibrate global alliances. This strategy aligns with a proverb often cited in Egyptian diplomacy: “Strike the bound, and the free will take heed.” By aggressively targeting key partners (the “bound”), the U.S. signals resolve to broader adversaries (the “free”), including Europe and emerging economies. Strategic Outlook for Investors With 205 weeks remaining in a hypothetical term, market participants should prepare for sustained turbulence. The 2018-2019 trade war eroded nearly $1.7 trillion in global equity value; a second iteration could prove more disruptive given today’s fragmented supply chains and inflationary pressures. In conclusion, while Trump’s policies may inject short-term uncertainty, they also recalibrate the playbook for global engagement. Investors who disentangle rhetoric from actionable strategy will be best positioned to navigate this paradigm. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹At Swing Extreme 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹With Risk-On sentiment, market opened with a gap down reaching the extreme Swing Low. 🔹The expected move is done with the market open. More development is required on LTFs. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is to continue bearish as long the Risk-On sentiment is still active and no soft tone from Trump in regards to Tariffs. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Swing turned bearish signaling the 4H/Daily bearish continuation. 🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, but currently the Risk-On sentiment is the main theme (Technical will follow sentiment) so not currently expecting a valuable pullback phase for the bearish BOS. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set for price to continue bearish and fulfill the Daily Bearish continuation.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 3-7 Feb 2025 W6 - Weekly Analysis - Tariffs Impact & NFP This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 3-7 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart Analysis Daily Chart Analysis 4H Chart Analysis Economic Events for the Week Market Sentiment On February 1, 2025, President Donald Trump announced the imposition of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, effective immediately. The tariffs include a 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. These measures are intended to address issues such as illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and trade imbalances. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the situation to assess the potential economic impact of the new tariffs. The primary concerns include: Inflation: The tariffs are expected to raise the cost of imported goods, which could contribute to higher inflation rates. This development may influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions, potentially leading to adjustments in interest rates to manage inflationary pressures. Economic Growth: The increased costs for businesses and consumers may dampen economic growth. The Fed will need to balance the risks of slowing growth with the potential for rising inflation when considering future policy actions. In summary, the imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has introduced significant uncertainty into the markets. Investors are concerned about the potential for increased costs and supply chain disruptions, while the Federal Reserve is evaluating the implications for inflation and overall economic growth. Weekly Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Internal Bearish 🔹In Swing Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS) 3️⃣ 🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase. 🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicates that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS. 🔹Price currently looking to target the liquidity built up during September 2024 and maybe reaching the Weekly supply zone (In INT structure Premium). 🔹Price had tapped into the Weekly Demand formed from the Bullish CHoCH last week. Is this demand enough to initiate the INT Pullback or with the current market sentiment and USD expectation to strength in the short-term we will continue Bearish following the Bearish Swing and INT Structures to target the Weak INT Low and Weak Swing Low? 🔹Expectations for price react from the current Weekly demand and then target the Weak INT Low to target the Weak Swing Low. Daily Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and currently mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone. 🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹Currently price tapping into a Daily/Weekly Demand Zones which could provide some bounce / or reversal for price to continue up (Depends on market Sentiment and if tariffs will trigger Risk-Off and USD Strength or it’s already priced in from last week strength in USD). 🔹Expectation is set to Bearish and more LTF development required to have a clear view. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing EQ 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Price managed to create a Bearish iBOS indicating that the Swing Pullback started. 🔹After the iBOS, we expect a Pullback. 3️⃣ 🔹Price currently tapping into the Daily/Weekly demand which could provide a short-term pullback (waiting for at least a Bullish CHoCH to confirm). 🔹Expectation is set to have a reaction from the Daily / 4H Demand zone to facilitate the pullback (Aligns with the Daily/Weekly expectations) then we will continue bearish to facilitate the Daily / Weekly expectations of bearish move. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
NZDSGD - In a Clear Support Zone - Buying Opportunity Ahead?OANDA:NZDSGD is inside a key support zone that has previously acted as a strong demand level, leading to bullish momentum. The recent decline into this area suggests a potential opportunity for buyers to step in. A bullish confirmation, such as a strong rejection pattern, bullish engulfing candle, or long lower wick, would increase the likelihood of an upward move. If buyers regain control, the price may head toward the 0.76630 level. This setup indicates a potential short-term rebound within the broader market structure This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation, like a rejection candle or volume spike before jumping in. Please boost this post, every like and comment drives me to bring you more ideas! I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments. Best of luck , TrendDiva
Long
by TrendDiva
2
EURUSD 31 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday Analysis - ECB CPI - US Core PCEThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 31 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment The combination of the Fed's steady rate policy and the administration's aggressive trade measures has led to a cautious market outlook. Investors are balancing optimism about domestic economic resilience with concerns over potential disruptions from international trade tensions. Federal Reserve's Decision: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate. Fed's Outlook: Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans to adjust rates and highlighting the need to assess the economic impacts of forthcoming policies from the Trump administration. Presidential Response: President Donald Trump criticized the Fed's decision, attributing ongoing inflation issues to the central bank's policies and pledging to address inflation through measures such as enhancing energy production, deregulation, and trade adjustments. Economic Reports today: ECB CPI Expectations and US Core PCE. Overall, while the U.S. economy continues to exhibit strength, uncertainties stemming from trade policies and geopolitical factors are contributing to a mixed market sentiment. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback. 🔹Price managed yesterday to create a Bullish CHoCH but again demand failed today which again adds the confluence that the Daily and 4H bearish move is in control and there is a HP that we are going to break the 4H INT Low. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to target the Strong INT Low to facilitate the 4H Bullish Swing Pullback and the Daily Bearish Continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹At Swing Extreme Discount 2️⃣ 🔹Price managed yesterday with US News and Lagarde Press Conference to create a Bullish BOS. 🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, where price pulled back to the Bullish Swing Extreme. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish based on the Daily Bearish Continuation, 4H Swing Pullback and the current market sentiment.
by Amr-Sadek
WHEAT – Signs of Weakness, Could a Short Be Next?PEPPERSTONE:WHEAT is within a clear resistance zone that has times before led to bearish reversals. In any case, this zone marked by previous price rejections, could once again attract selling pressure. If bearish confirmation occurs—through rejection wicks, bearish engulfing candles, or a decrease in buying volume—we could see a decline toward the 544,00 level. However, I’ll be watching for strong support reactions or signs of exhaustion before confirming the next move. Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management! What’s your take on the potential trend of this chart? I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments. Best of luck , TrendDiva
PEPPERSTONE:WHEATShort
by TrendDiva
EURUSD 30 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday Analysis - ECB Rate / LagardeThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Federal Reserve's Decision: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate. Fed's Outlook: Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans to adjust rates and highlighting the need to assess the economic impacts of forthcoming policies from the Trump administration. Presidential Response: President Donald Trump criticized the Fed's decision, attributing ongoing inflation issues to the central bank's policies and pledging to address inflation through measures such as enhancing energy production, deregulation, and trade adjustments. Heavy Economic Reports today: Starting with EUR Unemployment, GDP, ECB Interest Rate / Lagarde Press Conference to US GDP and Core PCE. Overall, the market sentiment reflects a blend of caution and anticipation as investors monitor the interplay between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the administration's fiscal initiatives. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback. 🔹Price is currently mitigating the large 4H Demand zone but failing till now to do something significant (At least a Bullish CHoCH). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to target the Strong INT Low to facilitate the 4H Bullish Swing Pullback and the Daily Bearish Continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Swing is continuing bearish with a new bearish BOS. 🔹After a BOS we expected a pullback which already reached the Swing Premium and mitigated the 15m / 4H supply zones. 🔹No clear INT structure within the Swing but the Fractal is currently bearish indicating the bearish swing pullback could be over and we are currently forming the Swing continuation phase to target the weak Swing Low. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue bearish (4H INT low to be broken) but to be cautious that we still within the 4H demand that is not fully mitigated.
by Amr-Sadek
EUR/JPY - Smart Money Concept (SMC) Breakdown!# **📉 EUR/JPY - Smart Money Concept (SMC) Breakdown! 🔥** 🔎 Price at Key Decision Zone! We are seeing a **triangle formation**, indicating a potential breakout soon. Based on SMC concepts, we have two possible scenarios: 🚀 **Case 1 (Red Path - Bullish Fakeout & Sell-off)** - Price may **break above resistance** into the supply zone (169-172) - This could be a **liquidity grab**, trapping buyers before a sharp rejection - A **sell-off** follows, targeting **144-148** 📉 **Case 2 (Blue Path - Immediate Breakdown)** - Price fails to break resistance and **rejects instantly** - A strong breakout to the downside confirms a bearish move - Targeting the **144-148 demand zone** 📌 **Key Levels to Watch:** 🔺 **Liquidity Grab Zone**: 169-172 🔻 **Bearish Breakdown Zone**: 160-164 🟢 **Potential Reversal Area**: 144-148 💡 **Question for Traders:** - Will we see a **bullish trap before a crash** or a **direct breakdown**? - Are you **selling from resistance** or waiting for confirmation? 🔥 **Comment below your views & trade setups!** 🚀 --- This keeps it
by Greenfireforex
EURUSD 29 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday - US Interest Rate / PowellThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Tariff Discussions Continue: Still the main factor currently that effects the market and supporting USD with Trump insistence to apply Tariffs Plan. Powell Press Conference: Today Rate decision is already priced in but the market is waiting for Powell press conference to give clues on what will be the Fed plan with Trump's recent announcements as on one hand, he has expressed a strong commitment to reducing inflation; on the other, his proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect on February 1, 2025, are anticipated to exert upward pressure on prices. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback. 🔹Price is currently mitigating the 4H Demand and we could see some bullish move to facilitate the LTF pullbacks only. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to facilitate the Daily Bearish Continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback Phase 2️⃣ 🔹Swing structure turned bearish after mitigating the Daily Supply zone. 🔹With the bearish BOS, a pullback is expected, currently INT structure is bearish and mitigating the 4H Demand. 🔹Price currently at the extreme of the Bearish INT structure and there is a HP that the Strong INT High could be taken out in order to facilitate the 15m Bearish Swing Pullback Phase. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set neutral due to the following: US Interest Rate decision and Powell Press Conference. We are currently within the 4H demand and it’s tough to follow the 15m Bearish INT Structure and Short. Not yet Bullish iBOS to indicate that the 15m Swing Pullback is starting.
by Amr-Sadek