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EURUSD 28 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday - US Durable Goods & ConfidenceThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 28 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Tariff Discussions Continue: President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant focused on tariff policies in their recent statements. Bessant's Proposal: Bessant suggested a universal tariff starting at 2.5%, with a gradual monthly increase of 2.5%, potentially reaching up to 20%. Trump's Tariff Plans: President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceutical producers, and industries like steel, aluminum, and copper. Trump's Push for Higher Tariffs: Trump expressed a desire for tariffs significantly higher than 2.5%, contradicting Bessant's proposal. This added further uncertainty to the market. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback. 🔹Price is currently mitigating the 4H Demand and we could see some bullish move to facilitate the LTF pullbacks only. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to facilitate the Daily Bearish Continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback Phase 2️⃣ 🔹Swing structure turned bearish after mitigating the Daily Supply zone. 🔹With the bearish BOS, a pullback is expected during the session today as we are mitigating the 4H Demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set to continue bearish to facilitate the 4H Swing pullback and Daily Bearish continuation.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 27 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday - EU Lagarde / US Home SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 27 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Tariffs will remain a key driver of market volatility, heavily influenced by Trump's shifting tone. While the market initially welcomed a "risk-off" sentiment following his announcement of a modest 10% tariff on China—interpreted as avoiding a full-blown trade war—Trump has since shaken markets by imposing a 25% tariff on Colombia. There are also rumors circulating that similar measures could target Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday, February 1. Tariffs are likely to be the primary market mover for the foreseeable future, so it's essential to stay vigilant and mindful of potential rumors. Trump’s unpredictability isn’t going anywhere 😁—adapt accordingly! 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹Currently price at a Daily Supply Zone that can initiate at least INT Structure Pullback and may extend to Swing Pullback to at least Swing EQ (50%)/Daily and Weekly Demand. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is price to initiate a pullback for the Bullish INT structure and then continue bullish from demand to target the Daily INT High/Weekly Liquidity. 🔹With today market open, price created a Bearish CHoCH to initiate the INT Structure Pullback. 🔹More development required on LTFs/Intraday Analysis. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback Phase 2️⃣ 🔹After the Bullish iBOS we expect a Swing Pullback, INT structure turned bearish to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback. 🔹With the bearish iBOS, a pullback is expected during the session today. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set to bearish to facilitate the Swing pullback to at least the Swing EQ/4H-Daily demand zone which is well positioned in Swing Discount. I’m looking for: 🔹Shorts from the INT structure Supply Zone positioned within the 4H Supply Zone only if we didn’t mitigate the 4H Demand. 🔹Longs from the 15m Demand within the 4H Demand zone for the 15m Bullish Swing and 4H Bullish INT Structure continuation.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 27-31 Jan 2025 W5 - Weekly Analysis - EU&US Interest RateThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 27-31 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart Analysis Daily Chart Analysis 4H Chart Analysis Economic Events for the Week Market Sentiment Weaker Dollar Sentiment: A softer tone on tariffs reduced market fears of escalating trade wars. This decreased safe-haven flows into the USD, as such rhetoric often bolsters the dollar's demand during heightened global uncertainties. Improved Global Trade Outlook: Easing trade tensions generally supports global economic activity, benefitting risk-sensitive assets like the euro. The USD could weaken as investors seek higher-yielding opportunities outside the U.S. Market Expectations for the Federal Reserve: If the U.S.-China trade relationship stabilizes, it could lower inflationary pressures caused by tariffs, potentially leading to a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve. This would further weaken the dollar. Lagging Economic Growth in Europe: While the euro could see short-term gains, its long-term strength depends on the eurozone’s ability to address its economic challenges. Structural issues in major economies like Germany and Italy could cap the euro’s upside. Upcoming important news: EUR & USD Interest rate decision, FOMC Meeting and PCE. Weekly Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Internal Bearish 🔹In Swing Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS) 3️⃣ 🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase. 🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicates that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS. 🔹Price currently looking to target the liquidity built up during September 2024 and maybe reaching the Weekly supply zone (In INT structure Premium). 🔹Expectations of price to continue bullish to sweep the liquidity/mitigate supply zone while putting in consideration that we can have a pullback after the bullish CHoCH to weekly newly demand formed. Daily Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish approaching the weekly demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and currently mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone. 🔹The current Daily supply zone could provide an intraday pullback to daily demand formed to continue bullish and target the INT High as this is the weekly liquidity currently to be targeted. Also, I put in consideration that the structure is bearish and we should be continuing down to target the Weak INT low. But I want to see more development on LTF to confirm this scenario. 🔹Expectations is set to continue bullish with cautious on the bearish scenario. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹Currently price at a Daily Supply Zone that can initiate at least INT Structure Pullback and may extend to Swing Pullback to at least Swing EQ (50%)/Daily and Weekly Demand. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is price to initiate a pullback for the Bullish INT structure and then continue bullish from demand to target the Daily INT High/Weekly Liquidity. 🔹More development required on LTFs/Intraday Analysis. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 24 Jan 2025 W4- Intraday Analysis - EU & US PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 24 Jan 2025 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Nothing much changed in sentiment since Tramp inauguration, yesterday Trump ease the tone on tariffs which gave optimism in the market (Risk Off) and weakened the dollar across the board. Dovish ECB Policy Expectations: Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB policy meetings. Economic Concerns: Subdued inflationary pressures and concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook. US Dollar Strength: Dollar appreciates following news that President Trump intends to review tariff policies. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹As expected, price created a bullish BOS as per the Daily/Weekly requirement for a pullback. 🔹Price didn’t mitigate any supply after the BOS so there is a high probability that we will continue up till we reach the 4H or Daily supply to initiate a BOS pullback phase (Can’t be ruled, we always have the expectation that a pullback will start at any time after any break of structure). 🔹Price mitigated the 4H demand within the 4H bullish INT structure and currently targeting the 4H Weak INT high. 3️⃣ 🔹My expectations is set for price to continue bullish till we mitigate a 4H/Daily supply. 🔹Will be following the LTF to follow the expectation of bullish continuation while putting in consideration the probability of a bearish move for the bullish BOS pullback phase that can start anytime. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish / ii Structure Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹After the Bullish BOS, price still holding bullish respecting the Bullish INT Structure. 🔹INT Structure Strong low liquidity swept and price mitigated the 4H demand zone to continue bullish. 🔹** 15m Swing is currently the 4H swing and I started mapping the ii Structure until I can reset my 15m Swing with a bigger price range. 3️⃣ 🔹Currently ii Structure is bullish and we are in continuation phase to target the Weak INT High. 🔹Expectations is that price to continue bullish and to mitigate the 4H/Daily Supply zone to maybe initiate a pullback phase.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 23 Jan 2025 W4- Intraday Analysis - US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 23 Jan 2025 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Nothing much changed in sentiment since Tramp inauguration Dovish ECB Policy Expectations: Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB policy meetings. Economic Concerns: Subdued inflationary pressures and concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook. US Dollar Strength: Dollar appreciates following news that President Trump intends to review tariff policies. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹As expected, price created a bullish BOS as per the Daily/Weekly requirement for a pullback. 🔹Price didn’t mitigate any supply after the BOS so there is a high probability that we will continue up till we reach the 4H or Daily supply to initiate a BOS pullback phase (Can’t be ruled, we always have the expectation that a pullback will start at any time after any break of structure). 🔹Currently price is within a 4H FLIP zone that caused the BOS. Which could keep price bullish to target the weak INT high. 3️⃣ 🔹My expectations is set for price to continue bullish till we mitigate a 4H/Daily supply. 🔹Will be following the LTF to follow the expectation of bullish continuation while putting in consideration the probability of a bearish move for the bullish BOS pullback phase that can start anytime. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Price created a bullish BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback phase. 🔹We didn’t mitigate any supply zone to initiate the Swing Pullback Phase yet so we could continue bullish. 🔹Price is currently within the 4H FLIP zone and at the INT Structure extreme. 🔹The last defined demand zone within the INT structure failed and there is a probability that the INT structure could turn bearish to fulfill the BOS requirement for a Pullback Phase. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is still bullish until we have a confirmed bearish iBOS to initiate the Pullback Phase. 🔹Longs: As the demand failed, I’ll be waiting for a shift in the OF to bullish and demand to start holding to target the Weak INT High. 🔹Shorts: Will be waiting for bearish iBOS for pullback phase.
by Amr-Sadek
Wheat- In a Clean Resistance Zone, can it reach 542.00?Wheat is already within a critical resistance zone that has times before led to bearish reversals. In any case this area, marked by previous price rejections, could once again attract selling pressure. If bearish confirmation occurs—through rejection wicks, bearish engulfing candles, or a decrease in buying volume—we could see a decline toward the 542,00 level. However, a breakout above this resistance would invalidate the bearish outlook and suggest potential for further upward movement. So keep an eye on that. Wait for clear signs of rejection before considering short positions.
PEPPERSTONE:WHEATShort
by TrendDiva
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