USDCAD LONGFX:USDCAD On the weekly time frame price has fulfilled a bullish order block right after taking out our inducement level ,fulfilling the price stop hunt to create new higher highs. On the daily chart price showed an entry setup of a CHANGE OF CHARACTER ,in the approaching weeks the price will creating new movements to the upside.Entry setups can be searched for starting from now going forth.
AWAIT ENTRY UPDATES FROM ME
SMC-ICT
Gold Directional Bias Gold has delivered as outlined in my previous post i will leave links to those. now gold has broken structure and is in a buy program. as the dollar continue to fall i anticipate gold to seek buyside liquidity. first using our fvg from the low of 1947 to the high of 1939 as an inverted fair value gap that want to see act as support seeking our first target of 1967 buyside and the others there after. so what does this mean? this title says daily directional bias so this is and will be used as for me as a roadmap to take longs. when i see intraday setups i will post those. thanks and stay tuned
GLOSSARY Smart Money Concepts – Complete Terms!It’s taking the world by a storm.
Smart Money Concepts is what has become famous lately.
Now I’ve been trading for 20 years and even I have learnt to adapt and adjust SMC to my trading strategy.
I guess we have to evolve and adapt with what there is.
Anyways, today I’ve written a complete Glossary on Smart Money Concepts terms for you.
Enjoy!
SMART MONEY CONCEPTS GLOSSARY
Break Of Structure (BOS) (CONTINUATION)
A BOS is when the price breaks above or below, and continues in the direction of the trend. (CONTINUATION).
Break Of Structure Down
When the price breaks and closes BELOW the wick of the previous LOW in a DOWNTREND.
Break Of Structure Up
When the price breaks and closes ABOVE the wick of the previous HIGH in an UPTREND.
Buy Side Liquidity (Smart Money SELLS)
Where an Order Block forms where Smart Money SELLS into retailers (dumb money) BUYING orders – Pushing the price DOWN.
Change of Character (CHoCH) (REVERSAL)
Refers to a much larger shift in the underlying market trend, dynamic or sentiment.
This is where the price moves to the point where there is a change in the overall trend. (REVERSAL)
Change of Character Down
When the price breaks and closes below the previous uptrend.
Change of Character Up
When the price breaks and closes above the previous downtrend.
Daily bias
Tells us which direction, trend and environment the market is in and what we are looking to trade.
Daily bias Bearish
When the market environment is DOWN and the trend is DOWN – we look for shorts (sells) in the market.
Daily bias Bullish
When the market environment is UP and the trend is UP – we look for long positions (buys) in the market.
Discount market <50%
The market is at a discount when the price trades BELOW the equilibrium level. We say the price is at a discount (low price).
Equilibrium
Equilibrium is a state of the market where the demand and supply are in balance with the price. We say the price of the market is at fair value.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
A 3 candle structure with an up or down impulse candle that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market.
Fair Value Gap Bearish
A 3 candle structure with a DOWN impulse candle that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market.
Between candle 1 and 3, do NOT show common prices. The price needs to move back up to rebalance and fill the gap.
Fair Value Gap Bullish
A 3 candle structure with an UP impulse candle that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market.
Between candle 1 and 3, do NOT show common prices. The price needs to come back down to rebalance and fill the gap.
Levels of liquidity
The area of prices where smart money players, identify and choose to BUY or SELL large quantities.
E.g. Supports, resistances, highs, lows, key levels, trend lines, volume, indicators, psychological levels.
Liquidity
The degree, rate and ability for an asset or security to be easily bought (flow in) or sold (flow out) in the market at a specific price.
Liquidity sweep (Liquidity grab)
Smart money buys or sells (and sweeps or grabs liquidity) from traders who enter, exit or get stopped.
Market down structure
When the price makes lower lows and lower highs.
Market structure
Indicates what a market is doing, which direction it’s in and where it is more likely to go.
Market Structure Shift (MSS)
MSS shows you when the price is breaking a structure or changing the direction in the market.
Market up structure
When the price makes higher lows and higher highs.
Order block
Large market orders (big block of orders) where smart money buys or sells from different levels of liquidity.
Order Block Bearish
A strong selling or a supply zone for smart money.
Order Block Bullish
A strong buying or a demand zone for smart money.
Order block events
Large market orders where smart money buys or sells from certain events i.e. High volume, supports, resistances, highs, lows, key levels, Break Of Structure, Change of Character, News or economic event.
Point Of Interest (POI)
POI is an area or level in the market where there is expected to be a large amount of buying or selling activity i.e. Order blocks.
Premium market >50%
The market is at a premium when the price trades ABOVE the equilibrium level.
We say the price is at a premium (high price).
Sell Side Liquidity (Smart Money BUYS)
Where an Order Block forms where the Smart Money BUYS into the retail (dumb money traders orders – Pushing the price UP.
Smart Money
These are the smart, informed, and savvy financial institutions that invest (buy and sell) their large capital into different financial markets.
Smart Money Concepts
SMC is a more sophisticated method of price action to spot, identify and locate where smart money is buying and selling their positions
Sweep Buy Side Liquidity (Smart Money SELLS)
Smart Money SELLS into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from retail traders who are short (get stopped) and for long traders who buy and enter their trades.
Sweep Sell Side Liquidity (Smart Money BUYS)
Smart Money BUYS into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from traders who are long (get stopped) and for short traders who enter their trades.
Feel free to print this out and have it as a guide to your Smart Money Concepts trading journey.
All the best!
Gold Update Intradayso looking at this chart we see quite a few things going on. lets point out the obvious which is the equal highs of 1935 that to me is the draw on liquidity. The market structure on gold appears to support a move to the top side after we have had a market shift today as displayed on the chart(MSS) i anticipate gold to continue long. this is also supported by my previous daily directional bias chart which i will link down below.
TARGET on Woolies hit at R64.00 next target R70.93 - SMC M Formation formed on Woolies.
Broke below the trendline and the signs were all bearish.
21>7
Price >200
Target R64.00 which it hit.
But now it looks like there is upside to come due to SMC.
SMC (Smart Money Concepts)
First we look for LOL (Levels Of Liquidity).
This is where there is strong volume of buying or selling from the big boys.
We can see three LOLs.
1. 200MA -which the price is now above and could stay above
2. Previous support level
3. Hammer to the upside and Change of Character (reversal to uptrend)
New target with SMC is R70.93
The probability of the trade idea is low because we are fighting the greater trend that is down, but it's worth looking at with SMC.
WHY you don't JUST Take The TradeIn the frenzied world of financial trading.
It gets to a stage eventually where we will hesitate to take the trade.
Even though you have the plan, strategy and mindset to a T.
Something could trigger you to not take the trade.
So why does this happen?
There are a multitude of reasons, but here are four reasons you might not take the trade.
Reason #1: Market Moved Too Much
Even I miss the mark sometimes.
Either I get distracted by writing something for you.
Either I wake up late past 10 am.
Either I am flying or at the beach.
And then… The market moves too much and I miss the trade.
This is life and this can catch us off guard.
There is no excuse in the bigger scheme of things because the market will move with or without you.
Just like time waits for no man. Neither does the market.
We need to be more disciplined, more determined and should be like a sniper when it comes to trading the markets.
Reason #2: You’re Scared to Lose
This one applies to three types of traders.
Either you’re new to the market and don’t want to lose money.
Or you’ve been in the market and you just can’t programme your mind to lose money.
Or you have already lost money and you have an even bigger fear of losing even more money.
Trading, by its very nature, involves risks. But sometimes, the fear of potential losses can overwhelm us, leading to indecision and missed opportunities.
Emotional trading is a surefire way to erratic decision-making and inconsistent results.
So if you’re scared to lose, risk less.
If you’re scared to lose, paper trade until you feel more confident.
If you’re scared to lose, work on risk psychology through journals and reading.
Or just reading an article like this. It may help you.
Reason #3: Too Much Money to Spend
Some markets are expensive!
If you’re new to trading and you try to trade a world index or a futures contract like Brent Crude – brace yourself.
It might spook you away from trading because it’s too much to spend.
But then there are markets that aren’t expensive to trade like Forex, local and some international stocks.
Stick to those and lower your risk to 1.5% or even 1% risk per trade.
Balancing risk and reward is a delicate art in trading.
Reason #4: No Trust Yet in the System
Confidence is not easy to gain with trading strategies.
I never believed in my system for years. Why?
Because I thought the past results truly meant nothing for the future performance of the markets.
Then as trading became more logical and as I saw that financial markets is nothing more than psychology and demand and supply, the confidence in the system went up.
People will be people.
Before plunging into trades, it’s beneficial to familiarise yourself with the strategy and make sure you backtest them and study them like a trading engineer and statistician.
Your confidence will grow and eventually you’ll get to the point where you will.
JUST TAKE THE TRADE.
sell setup for gold after the 5 waves ended on the daily TF we have on the 4h Tf the end of wave 5 with a broken ending diagonal.
so potential short opportunities are there.
the only confirmation for selling gold is to break the strong low highlighted on the chart.
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don't forget your risk management
follow for more :))
Unexpected Daily Choch EU UpdateThere are lots of things that can happen now. Best to keep expectations of where price could go to a reasonable level. IMO unexperienced traders should only target weak structure points and not liquidity points as those might not be taken, but I leave that decision to you.
Waiting for more information on Monday and Tuesday for a follow up analysis but for now best to target weak 4H structure points
Dirty context in a week of FOMC and ECB conferencesI expect price to be pretty calm today. I see more likely a return to the orange trendline followed by its breakout to take an entry in one of the many candidates I have drew.
I will most likely just watch the price action of today and don't execute any trade.
Hulamin Asc Triangle and Bearish FVG showing up signs to R5.40Ascending Triangle has formed since 13 June 2022 on Hulamin.
There are higher lows and same highs.
This means, momentum is pushing on up.
Other indicators include:
7>21 >200
RSI<50 - Higher lows
Target R3.59 and then R5.40
SMART MONEY CONCEPTS:
Now with Smart Money Concepts, we have something interesting.
A LARGE Bearish FVG (Fair Value Gap) has formed on the weekly chart.
What is a Bearish FVG?
A 3 candle structure with a down impulse candle that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market.
Between candle 1 and 3, do NOT show common prices.
The price needs to move back up to rebalance and fill the gap.
During this process, it will rebalance and head on up to R3.59. Also the resistance will be broken, which will give way for the price to move to the next target of R5.40.
Confirmation entry on a Break Block (5m) + FVG (4H) confluencePrice already reacted to the BB (5m/ Yellow Border Square) + FVG (4H - Yellow Background Square) confluence and created a CHoCH. I expect price to react and continue pushing up after touching one of the two EQL zones.
I will risk 0.25% of my account size if in case price triggers both of my stoploss, I will still have another 0.5% to use because I think price will go bullish this week the next one.
GBPNZD strong upside push to 2 after C&H breakoutCup and Handle formed on GBPNZD.
The price broke out which gave a great entry signal.
We could even wait for the price to retrace back to the Brim level and get an even better entry.
7>21>200 - Bullish
RSI >50
Target will start off at 2.198. But once it breaks higher, we'll see more formations.
Smart Money Concepts
Sell Side Liquidity formed just below the handle of the cup.
Smart Money BUYS into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from traders who are long (get stopped) and for short traders who enter their trades.
Still trying to grab more LiquidityYesterday the price did an Asian Session Manipulation where Smart Money bought at 1.08000 and sold on the Asian highs at 1.08300.
Today I think that Smart Money might be interested in the EQH zone that was created on the previous structure. The same zone that they used to sell yesterday.
What I'm trying to say is that the said zone is important because it has a 15m order block (yellow borders), the pyschological level of 1.08300 and EQH.
The only reason I don't like this setup is because the Order Block was used already at least 3 times. In that case, the setup that I shared yesterday will have be more likely to be activated.
Good Luck.
Going with recapitalizationThe price started a clear recapitalization of a higher time frame range.
Have several confirmations, BOS, OB, OTE level and buy side liquidity to be taken.
What is against the trade is that clear Exposed liquidity marked with yellow, and could take me out, that's why I leave more SL.