SMC
NEHT25 Trend Continuation - Will Buyers Push Toward 963$?PEPPERSTONE:NETH25 is demonstrating strong bullish momentum, supported by a well-respected ascending trendline. The consistent series of higher highs and higher lows suggest that buyers remain in control, with price action steadily advancing.
A potential pullback toward the trendline support could provide an opportunity for buyers to step in, maintaining the overall uptrend structure. If the market continues to respect this trendline, we can anticipate a continuation toward the 963.00 level as the next upside target.
This setup aligns with the expectation of a bullish continuation, offering a potential long opportunity if price consolidates or forms a higher low near the trendline.
If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
EUR_USD STRONG BREAKOUT|LONG|
✅EUR_USD made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 1.0440 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we will be expecting
A further bullish continuation with
The target of retesting the
Horizontal resistance above at 1.0533
LONG🚀
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GOLD Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD made a bullish
Rebound from the support
Below just as I predicted
And is now going up again
But Gold will soon hit a
Horizontal resistance
Level of 2942$ which is
Also an all-time-high
So we will be expecting
A local bearish correction
Sell!
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EURUSD 14 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday - EU GDP - US Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 14 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
1. Impact of CPI and PPI on Inflation Expectations
CPI Outcome: The headline CPI rose to 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.9% forecast), while core CPI increased to 3.3% YoY, signaling persistent inflationary pressures 10. However, the market reaction was muted due to mixed signals.
PPI Analysis: The headline PPI exceeded forecasts (3.5% YoY), but key components linked to core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred metric) suggested a potential moderation. Analysts noted that softer PCE data next week could ease Fed tightening fears, supporting risk assets like the Euro.
Investor Positioning: Futures traders now price in 33 basis points of Fed cuts in 2025, up from 29 basis points pre-PPI, indicating growing optimism about disinflation.
2. Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs: Negotiation vs. Trade War
Tariff Announcement: Trump’s directive to formulate reciprocal tariffs (e.g., 25% on steel/aluminum) was not immediately implemented, with a delayed enforcement timeline (potentially April). Markets interpreted this as a negotiation tactic rather than an escalation into a trade war.
Market Reaction: The USD weakened (DXY fell to 107.25) as investors focused on the negotiation window and avoided panic-driven safe-haven flows. The Euro benefited from reduced trade-war fears, rising to $1.0469 in early Asian trade.
3. Geopolitical Optimism and Risk Sentiment
Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks: Reports of potential territory swaps and Trump’s mediation efforts bolstered risk appetite. A resolution could alleviate Eurozone energy and supply-chain pressures, supporting EUR/USD.
Equity Market Stability: European stocks (e.g., Euro STOXX 50) pared losses, with sectors like utilities and healthcare outperforming. This resilience reduced demand for the USD as a safe haven.
4. Central Bank Dynamics
The ECB is expected to cut rates further (market pricing in 3 cuts in 2025), while the Fed maintains a cautious "higher-for-longer" stance. However, softer PCE expectations may narrow this divergence, favoring EUR/USD.
5. Key Risks and Catalysts Today
U.S. Retail Sales & Industrial Production:
Forecasts suggest a 0.2% MoM decline in retail sales (first drop in 5 months) and slower industrial production growth. Weak data could amplify USD selling.
Tariff Negotiation Updates: Any hints of tariff implementation timelines or retaliatory measures from the EU/China may reignite volatility.
Final Sentiment Summary
Short-Term Bias: Cautiously Bullish for EUR/USD.
Support Factors: Soft PCE expectations, delayed tariffs, and geopolitical optimism.
Investors will monitor retail sales data and tariff rhetoric for intraday momentum shifts. A softer PCE print next week could solidify bullish sentiment, while tariff escalation remains the primary risks.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play.
🔹Currently price is sweeping Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed).
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High. A decent pullback is also expected if the Liq. is enough and market sentiment is aligning with the pullback (Requires market Fear/ Risk-Off).
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹Swing structures continued Bullish with 2 Bullish BOS yesterday (High Volatility).
🔹The current 15m Bullish structures confirms for me the 4H Bullish Swing continuation and we are targeting high.
🔹After the recent 15m Swing BOS, we expect a pullback.
Current structure doesn’t have much clear demand zone (the 70% of the structure is a 4H Demand zone).
🔹Price expected to have a pullback to the recent demand identified (Not well positioned as it’s in premium) or to structure EQ (50%)/Discount to continue Bullish and target the Weak Swing High.
🔹I want to note that the 4H had swept Liq. above 30 Jan High which could initiate a decent pullback on price after that aggressive move up.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation of price to continue Bullish as long the Swing Low hold and pullbacks are contained within the structure.
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- Here is Crude Oil futures, on a 4H timeframe
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USD_CHF SUPPORT AHEAD|LONG|
✅USD_CHF is about to retest a key structure level around 0.9000
Which implies a high likelihood of a move up
As some market participants will be taking profit from short positions
While others will find this price level to be good for buying
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bullish correction
LONG🚀
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EUR-USD Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD is trading in a
Local uptrend and the pair
Made a bullish breakout of
The key horizontal level
Of 1.0440 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish continuation
Buy!
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GBP-NZD Will Go Down! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-NZD has made a retest
Of the horizontal resistance
Of 2.2220 and we are already
Seeing a bearish reaction so
We are bearish biased and
Therefore a local bearish
Pullback is to be expected
Sell!
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GOLD WILL HIT RESISTANCE SOON|SHORT|
✅GOLD will be retesting a resistance level soon at 2942$
Which is an all-time-high
From where I am expecting a bearish reaction
With the price going down but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
SHORT🔥
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SALIK (DFM) Wave 5 in playSALIK has undergone a significant correction of 18%, marking the conclusion of wave 4. There is now potential for wave 5 to commence, following a bounce from the Daily Demand Zone (DZ).
The 1.68 Fibonacci level indicates a target price of approximately 7.8, suggesting a potential increase of around 60%.
This could be a good opportunity to enter the market or add to your position
GBPAUD Approaching Support: Will Price Rebound to 1.9890?OANDA:GBPAUD is approaching a key support zone. Previously, this area has acted as strong demand, leading to significant bullish reversals. The ongoing bearish momentum suggests sellers are driving the price toward this level, where buyers may step in.
A bullish confirmation, such as a strong rejection pattern, bullish engulfing candles, or long lower wicks, would increase the probability of a rebound. If buyers regain control, the price could move toward the 1.98900 level. However, a breakdown below this zone could invalidate the bullish outlook, opening the door for further downside.
This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation, like a rejection candle or volume spike before jumping in.
Please boost this post, every like and comment drives me to bring you more ideas! I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments.
Best of luck , TrendDiva
GBP_USD RESISTANCE AHEAD|SHORT|
✅GBP_USD is set to retest a
Strong resistance level above at 1.2576
After trading in a local uptrend for some time
Which makes a bearish pullback a likely scenario
With the target being a local support below at 1.2450
SHORT🔥
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EURUSD 13 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday - US PPI, Tariffs & Peace TalksThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 13 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
The EUR/USD’s rise yesterday, despite hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI data, reflects a complex interplay of technical, geopolitical, and market sentiment factors.
Initial CPI Shock and Subsequent Rebound
The U.S. CPI rose 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.9% forecast), with core CPI hitting 0.3% MoM, triggering an immediate USD rally and EUR/USD dips.
Fed Policy Expectations vs. Market Positioning
Despite the CPI spike, Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed urgency for rate hikes, stating the Fed is “close but not there yet” on inflation. This tempered fears of aggressive tightening and limited USD upside.
Geopolitical De-escalation and Risk Sentiment
Reports of a potential territory swap deal reduced geopolitical risk aversion, weakening the USD’s safe-haven appeal and supporting the Euro.
Diverging Central Bank Policies
While the Fed’s cautious stance limited USD gains, the ECB’s restrictive policy (rates at 2.75% vs. Fed’s 4.5%) and improving Eurozone PMI data (manufacturing: 46.6; services: 51.3) supported EUR strength.
The EUR/USD rally was a corrective rebound driven by:
Technical triggers after oversold conditions.
Powell’s refusal to escalate hawkish rhetoric.
Geopolitical optimism overshadowing inflation risks.
Relative Eurozone resilience amid global trade uncertainties.
While CPI data initially favored the USD, the market’s focus shifted to policy stability and risk sentiment, allowing the Euro to recover. However, sustained EUR strength hinges on ECB rate cuts and tariff developments.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹The reaction from the recent 4H Demand Zone formed a Bullish CHoCH and a fresh Demand zone where price can pullback to after tapping the recent 4H Supply Zone.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to Bullish targeting the Liquidity above the Feb 5 and then Jan 30 before any considerable pullback to then continue to target the Weak 4H Swing High.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Sweeping Swing High
2️⃣
🔹With yesterday economic and geopolitics news, we had a mixed moves based on investors sentiment and their appetite to risk.
🔹INT structure continuing Bullish aligning with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase.
🔹Currently price in the process of creating a 15m Bullish Swing (BOS).
3️⃣
🔹With current Bullish INT Structure and the expected Bullish BOS on 15m and it’s alignment with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase, expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Bullish move.
🔹Having in mind that after the 15m Bullish BOS we will have a pullback which will provide opportunities to Long as Shorts currently are not viable for me.