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AUDNZD at Key Resistance: Will It Drop To 1.10650?OANDA:AUDNZD is at a significant resistance area that has consistently acted as a barrier for bullish momentum. The recent price action suggests a potential for sellers to step in and drive prices lower from this zone. If rejection signals, such as bearish engulfing candles or upper wicks, appear, I expect a move toward 1.10650. A break above this resistance, however, could indicate a shift in market sentiment. Traders should wait for confirmation before entering short positions and ensure proper risk management. If you have any thoughts or agree with this analysis, I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments!
Short
by TrendDiva
EURUSD 10 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - Tariffs!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 10 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment My Weekly Analysis HERE still the same as Tariffs is the main theme but market reaction is the key. Is the market got used to the Tariffs news so reactions will be soft and fade or we are going to see more fear in the market with Tariff War ? 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs are staying Bearish. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Price reached the Weak Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS. 🔹INT Structure continuing Bearish following the 4H Continuation. 🔹With today open, market created a new Bearish iBOS due to Tariffs announcements. 🔹Current INT High is the 4H CHoCH which could be taken out as liquidity for continuation down. 🔹Price currently reached the Supply zone that caused the Bearish iBOS and we could see continuation down targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹For me, I’d prefer to short from the 4H Supply after sweeping the 15m INT High (4H CHoCH). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
DXY (Dollar index) short from 108.800My DXY analysis aligns with the expectation of a bearish move, which suggests that my pairs—EU and GU—could push higher. However, before that, we may see a minor pullback as price moves toward a demand zone. Price has recently broken structure to the upside, leaving behind a fresh demand level. Once price reaches this area, I anticipate accumulation before a potential move upward. I will look for opportunities to capitalize on this movement across the pairs I trade, such as Gold, EU, and GU. The price action has been very clean so far, which is promising, and we can expect more of the same as we move further into Q1. Have a great week ahead and remain vigilant!
TVC:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1
EUR.USD Longs from 1.02600My EU long idea is based on the strong bullish pressure seen after price filled last week’s gap. I’ll be looking for buying opportunities once price mitigates my 11-hour demand zone near the bottom. However, I’ll remain cautious since this area has already been mitigated in last week’s forecast. If price pushes higher instead, I expect it to mitigate the 6-hour supply zone, which originated from a Break of Structure (BOS) and was reinforced by a Change of Character (CHOCH). From there, potential short opportunities could arise around 1.03800 for a move back down. Confluences for EU Buys: - EU has been very bullish, making this a pro-trend setup. - The market structure remains strong, forming higher highs and higher lows. - There is significant liquidity to the upside along with well-defined supply zones. - The clean 11-hour demand zone previously caused an impulsive move, making it a strong area of interest. Note: If price breaks below the 11-hour demand zone, I expect EU to turn bearish for a short period. Have a great trading week!
Long
by Hassan_fx
EURUSD 10-14 Feb 2025 W7 - Weekly Analysis - US CPI/PPI/PowellThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 10-14 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart Analysis Daily Chart Analysis 4H Chart Analysis Economic Events for the Week Market Sentiment Mixed Labor Market Signals The February 7 NFP report showed 143K new jobs (below expectations of 170K), signaling potential cooling in the labor market. However, strong wage growth (0.5% MoM, 4.1% YoY) and a 4% unemployment rate (down from 4.1%) suggest lingering inflationary pressures. Markets may interpret this as a "Goldilocks" scenario: cooling job growth could delay Fed rate hikes, but elevated wage inflation keeps stagflation risks alive. Tariff Volatility and Trade Uncertainty Trump’s tariffs (10% on China, delayed 25% on Canada/Mexico) dominate market psychology. While tariffs are a negotiation tool, their sudden implementation and reversal create uncertainty. For example: Automotive and energy sectors face direct risks due to integrated North American supply chains. Consumer goods (e.g., electronics, produce) may see price hikes, amplifying inflation fears. Retaliatory measures from China add to global trade tensions. Week major news events Fed’s Powell testifies ECB Lagarde Speech US CPI, PPI and Retail Sales EU GDP Given the forecasts and the recent NFP report showing slower job growth, market sentiment could be cautious. If the CPI and PPI readings come in higher than expected, it could reinforce concerns about inflation and lead to USD Strength. Investors might seek safe-haven assets. Conversely, if the CPI and PPI readings are in line with or lower than expectations, it could provide some relief to the markets and support a more positive sentiment which will lead to Weaker USD. Weekly Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Internal Bearish 🔹In Swing Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS) 3️⃣ 🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase. 🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS. 🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after a volatile week. 🔹Price still looking bearish to target the Weak INT low to target the Weekly unmitigated demand. Ultimately targeting the Swing Weak Low. 🔹Noticing that the Bearish INT Low didn’t pullback to at least the INT Structure EQ (50%) so there is a chance that price could hold the current Weekly Demand to fulfil the i-BOS pullback phase which will require MTF to confirm this scenario. 🔹Expectation is set to Bearish continuation targeting the Weak INT Low and the unmitigated Weekly Demand. Daily Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone. 🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH. 🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase. 🔹Expectations is price to continue Bearish to target the Weak INT Low and hopefully we get a confirmed close which is fulfilling the Weekly target of continuing Bearish. 🔹Notice that if the Daily formed a Bullish CHoCH (Currently above the recent mitigated Supply) this will shift my outlook to the Weekly Scenario of a deep pullback of the Weekly INT Structure to at least the Structure EQ (50%). MTF required to shift Bullish to confirm. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs are staying Bearish. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek