EURUSD 3-7 Feb 2025 W6 - Weekly Analysis - Tariffs Impact & NFP This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 3-7 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
On February 1, 2025, President Donald Trump announced the imposition of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, effective immediately. The tariffs include a 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. These measures are intended to address issues such as illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and trade imbalances.
The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the situation to assess the potential economic impact of the new tariffs. The primary concerns include:
Inflation: The tariffs are expected to raise the cost of imported goods, which could contribute to higher inflation rates. This development may influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions, potentially leading to adjustments in interest rates to manage inflationary pressures.
Economic Growth: The increased costs for businesses and consumers may dampen economic growth. The Fed will need to balance the risks of slowing growth with the potential for rising inflation when considering future policy actions.
In summary, the imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has introduced significant uncertainty into the markets. Investors are concerned about the potential for increased costs and supply chain disruptions, while the Federal Reserve is evaluating the implications for inflation and overall economic growth.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Internal Bearish
🔹In Swing Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS)
3️⃣
🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase.
🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicates that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS.
🔹Price currently looking to target the liquidity built up during September 2024 and maybe reaching the Weekly supply zone (In INT structure Premium).
🔹Price had tapped into the Weekly Demand formed from the Bullish CHoCH last week. Is this demand enough to initiate the INT Pullback or with the current market sentiment and USD expectation to strength in the short-term we will continue Bearish following the Bearish Swing and INT Structures to target the Weak INT Low and Weak Swing Low?
🔹Expectations for price react from the current Weekly demand and then target the Weak INT Low to target the Weak Swing Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone.
3️⃣
🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and currently mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone.
🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low.
🔹Currently price tapping into a Daily/Weekly Demand Zones which could provide some bounce / or reversal for price to continue up (Depends on market Sentiment and if tariffs will trigger Risk-Off and USD Strength or it’s already priced in from last week strength in USD).
🔹Expectation is set to Bearish and more LTF development required to have a clear view.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing EQ
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹Price managed to create a Bearish iBOS indicating that the Swing Pullback started.
🔹After the iBOS, we expect a Pullback.
3️⃣
🔹Price currently tapping into the Daily/Weekly demand which could provide a short-term pullback (waiting for at least a Bullish CHoCH to confirm).
🔹Expectation is set to have a reaction from the Daily / 4H Demand zone to facilitate the pullback (Aligns with the Daily/Weekly expectations) then we will continue bearish to facilitate the Daily / Weekly expectations of bearish move.
Economic Events for the Week
