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Gold Futures - Potential Springtime ReversalGold futures have been on a rally, but recent price action suggests a potential shift. Could we be witnessing a Wyckoff distribution forming? Understanding Wyckoff Distribution The Wyckoff distribution pattern occurs when large institutions begin selling off their positions to retail traders before a downtrend begins. This phase is often characterized by sideways price movement, false breakouts, and key "Signs of Weakness" (SOW) that hint at an impending sell-off. A Recent Sign of Weakness in Gold Futures A possible sign of weakness in gold futures was observed recently when prices gave a false break out at what retail traders would label "key levels". Historical Seasonal Trends: Spring Reversals Looking at historical data, Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI.com) has tracked seasonal gold price patterns for over 40 years. Their findings indicate that gold often experiences price reversals during the spring months. This aligns with the idea that we could be heading into a seasonally weak period, increasing the likelihood of a distribution phase playing out. What Traders Should Watch For As Gold rallies back towards a new all time high we should be aware that it may be just a false break to form the final phases of a distribution schematic. This would form an upthrust, and upthrust after distribution, followed by a sharp retracement back into the range and ultimately leading to a sell off and market reversal. Final Thoughts While nothing is certain, the combination of the financial institutions footprint and historical seasonal data suggests gold traders should proceed with caution. Whether you’re trading futures or investing in physical gold, staying aware of these patterns can help you make informed decisions. Do you think a Wyckoff distribution is playing out in gold? Share your thoughts in the comments!
COMEX:GC1!
by renegadeforex
How should we analyze ETHUSDT? I have written about the reasons Ethereum has been the most talked-about asset during this downturn. ↪ Each time it showed a decline, the drop was sharp and rapid, consistently forming new lows. As a result, it has significantly lost trust among retail investors who were primarily focused on buying. Here is the daily chart of Ethereum. The overall structure and range are formed using two supply zones as key levels along with a single range. I am currently using two key levels as my primary reference: 1. The support zone that held during the decline in early February. 2. The resistance zone that formed when the previous low was broken. ✔ Despite the new low being established, I have set the range as shown above because it is still too early to confirm a complete breakdown of the lower range. ✔ As shown in the chart above, we have yet to see a full-body candle close below the lower range. Additionally, the key level at the bottom continues to provide support. If we do see a decisive full-body close below the lower range and the key level no longer holds as support, we can conclude that the liquidity sweep at the lower range has failed to remove sufficient liquidity. A Range Sweep typically occurs when there is a well-defined range with clear highs and lows. It refers to a scenario where price temporarily breaks out (or breaks down) beyond this range but closes back inside, leaving a wick. This movement goes by different names, such as Range Sweep, Stop Hunt, and Fake Out, but they all serve a distinct purpose. The Role of Smart Money in Liquidity Sweeps Market-controlling entities, often referred to as Smart Money, tend to move in the opposite direction of retail traders. Their primary objective is to eliminate as many retail positions (liquidity) as possible before triggering a sharp price reversal. Retail traders generally follow simple trading patterns: • They tend to chase price moves, entering long positions as the price rises and short positions as it falls. • They often place stop-loss orders at the most recent swing high (for shorts) or swing low (for longs). Smart Money exploits this predictable behavior by targeting these stop-loss orders to clear liquidity and then reversing the price direction. Key Liquidity Concepts • BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity): Liquidity from short positions’ stop-loss orders resting above key highs. If price touches these levels, a reversal may occur. • SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity): Liquidity from long positions’ stop-loss orders resting below key lows. If price touches these levels, a reversal may occur. Liquidity Sweep in Action Liquidity sweeps follow this mechanism: 1. Price breaches a key level (either a high or a low). 2. Stop-loss orders trigger, increasing liquidity. 3. Smart Money absorbs liquidity and reverses price direction. Understanding this concept and identifying liquidity sweeps in real-time can significantly enhance your market analysis and trading strategies. Keep an eye on these setups, as they can provide high-probability trade opportunities. The explanation about liquidity sweeps became a bit lengthy in the middle. Ultimately, I still see Ethereum’s current price action near the daily low as part of an ongoing liquidity removal process. If it breaks above the trendline resistance and the key level within the internal range supply zone, signaling a trend shift, we could target a move up to the range high of $4,100. ▩ Key Takeaways from This Perspective: The Method and Purpose of Liquidity Sweeps To successfully trade the movements that follow liquidity sweeps, it’s crucial to understand that positions should not be taken during the liquidity removal process itself. If liquidity is being swept on a higher time frame (HTF), the top-down analysis approach should be used to identify reversal price action on the middle and lower time frames (MTF, LTF) before entering a trade. In my next analysis, I will likely discuss how to correctly follow price reversals after liquidity sweeps and how to position accordingly. Thank you.
Long
by Taegwon_V_Trader
EURAUD Bullish Momentum in Play — Targeting 1.69500OANDA:EURAUD is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, with price action respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. The recent bounce off the midline suggests buyers are maintaining control, supporting a potential continuation of the uptrend. As long as the price remains above the support level and the channel's lower boundary holds, the bullish structure remains intact. A potential upside target is 1.69500, aligning with the upper boundary of the channel. A break and close above this level could signal further bullish momentum. However, a breakdown below the green support zone would invalidate the bullish scenario and may open the door for a deeper pullback. Remember, always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management. Best of luck!
Long
by TrendDiva
3
EURCAD at Key Resistance Zone - Potential Drop to 1.50180OANDA:EURCAD has reached a significant resistance zone, marked by prior price rejections, suggesting strong selling interest. This area has previously acted as a key supply zone, increasing the likelihood of a bearish reversal if sellers regain control. If the price confirms resistance within this zone through bearish price action (e.g., wicks or rejection candles), we could see a move toward 1.50180, which represents a logical target based on recent structure. However, if the price breaks and holds above this resistance area, the bearish outlook may be invalidated, potentially opening the door for further upside. Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management. Best of luck!
Short
by TrendDiva
3
EURUSD Approaching Key Resistance – Will Sellers Step In?OANDA:EURUSD is approaching a significant resistance zone, highlighted by previous price reactions and strong selling interest. This area has historically acted as a supply zone, where sellers have stepped in, leading to notable price reversals. The current price action suggests a potential bearish reaction if the resistance holds. If sellers maintain control, we could see a decline toward the 1.03940 level, which represents a logical target based on the current market structure. Confirmation signals—such as a bearish engulfing candle, rejection wick, or increased selling volume—would strengthen the bearish outlook. However, if the price breaks above this resistance zone and sustains momentum, the bearish outlook may be invalidated, signaling a potential shift in favor of buyers. Monitoring how price reacts to this zone is crucial for identifying entry opportunities. As always, applying proper risk management is essential given the potential for volatility. Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management. Best of luck!
Short
by TrendDiva
2
GBPUSD Approaching Major Resistance — Potential Sell SetupOANDA:GBPUSD is approaching a significant resistance zone, a level where sellers have consistently stepped in, leading to notable bearish reversals in the past. This area is marked by strong selling interest and historical price reactions, increasing the likelihood of a bearish move if sellers regain control. The current price action suggests that if the pair confirms resistance through signals like bearish engulfing candles, long upper wicks, or increased selling volume, we could see a downward move toward 1.25770—a logical target based on previous price behavior and market structure. However, if the price breaks above this zone and sustains, the bearish outlook may be invalidated, opening the door for further upside. Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management. Best of luck!
Short
by TrendDiva
1
AUDCAD at Key Support Level – Potential Rebound to 0.89950OANDA:AUDCAD has reached a significant support zone, marked by previous price reactions and strong buying interest. This area has historically acted as a key demand zone, increasing the likelihood of a bounce if buyers step in. The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms support within this zone, we could see a bullish reversal. A successful rebound could push the pair toward the 0.89950 level, a logical target based on the recent market structure. Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management. Best of luck!
Long
by TrendDiva
1
USDCHF - Sell Setup at Key Supply ZoneOANDA:USDCHF has reached a key supply zone, highlighted by strong selling interest. This area has historically acted as a resistance level, increasing the likelihood of a bearish reversal if sellers step in. The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms resistance within this zone, we could see further downside movement. A successful rejection could push the pair toward 0.89940, a logical target based on prior price behavior and the current structure. However, if the price breaks and holds above this resistance, the bearish outlook may be invalidated, potentially leading to further upside. Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management. Best of luck!
Short
by TrendDiva
5
SPAIN35 Bullish Momentum in Play — Targeting 13,700FUSIONMARKETS:E35 is trading within a clearly defined ascending channel, with the price maintaining strong bullish momentum. This suggests the uptrend may continue, with the upper channel boundary serving as a potential target. A short-term pullback could present an entry opportunity if buyers show strength through bullish candlestick patterns like a bullish engulfing or hammer formation, potentially driving the price toward the 13,700 level. However, a break below the channel's lower boundary would invalidate the bullish outlook and may indicate a shift in market direction. Remember, always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management. Best of luck!
FUSIONMARKETS:E35Long
by TrendDiva
1
STOXX50: Maintains Bullish Momentum - Is 5,688 the Next Target?ICMARKETS:STOXX50 remains within a well-defined ascending channel, with the price showing a rebound from the midline of the channel. This suggests a continuation of the uptrend, targeting the upper channel boundary. A short-term pullback could offer a potential entry opportunity. If buyers step in and confirm strength through candlestick patterns like bullish engulfing or hammer formations, momentum could drive price higher toward the 5,688 level. A breakdown below the channel's lower boundary, however, would invalidate the bullish outlook and signal a potential shift in market direction. Remember, always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management. Best of luck!
ICMARKETS:STOXX50Long
by TrendDiva
1