SMC
EURCHF at Key Support: Will Buyers Step In?OANDA:EURCHF has reached a significant support zone, marked by prior price rejections and strong buying pressure. This area has historically acted as a key demand zone, indicating the potential for a pullback if buyers regain control.
The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms a rejection from this support zone, there is a high likelihood of an upward move. I anticipate that if rejection occurs, the market may head higher toward the 0.94320 level, which represents a logical target within the current market structure.
If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
EUR/USD Longs from 3hr demand zone My bias for EUR/USD (EU) aligns with my outlook on other dollar pairs, as the Dollar Index (DXY) has been trending lower, reinforcing the bullish momentum for EU, GU, and Gold.
Currently, there’s a clean 3-hour demand zone that caused a break of structure to the upside—this is the move I’m looking to capitalize on. My expectation is for price to continue higher and target the pool of liquidity resting above.
That said, if price shows a shift in character to the downside on the higher timeframes (HTF), I’ll reassess and look for potential opportunities to capitalize on that move instead.
Confluences for EU Buys:
✅ Price is in a strong bullish trend, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows.
✅ The Dollar Index (DXY) remains bearish, supporting this bullish outlook.
✅ Liquidity above that price is likely to target.
✅ Clean 3-hour demand zone that remains unmitigated.
Alternative Scenario:
If price drops below the 3-hour demand zone, I’ll look for my next buy opportunity at the clean 6-hour demand zone around 1.03000, where price would be in a more discounted area.
Stay sharp and trade smart—have a great trading week! 🤺
GBP/USD Longs from 1.25800 up to the 7hr supplyFor this week, I expect GBP/USD to retrace back to the clean, unmitigated 18-hour demand zone before pushing back up toward the 7-hour supply zone that I previously marked. If this move doesn’t play out as expected, I anticipate price will first mitigate the 7-hour supply zone before slowing down and distributing within my point of interest (POI).
From there, I’ll be watching for a short move back to the 18-hour demand zone, where I plan to enter buys and continue trading in alignment with the overall market trend. Since price is currently near both POIs, I’ll be keeping a close eye on this setup.
Confluences for GU Buys:
✅ Strong bullish trend with consistent breakouts to the upside.
✅ 18-hour demand zone remains unmitigated and was the origin of the last bullish move.
✅ 7-hour supply zone above that also needs to be mitigated.
✅ The Dollar Index (DXY) has been very bearish, further supporting GBP strength.
Alternative Scenario:
If price reacts strongly from the 7-hour supply zone and breaks below the 18-hour demand, I’ll shift my focus to my next buy zone around 1.25200.
Wishing everyone a profitable trading week—let’s finish it in BLUES! 🔵
XAU/USD Gold Buys from 2,900 back upGold has been in a strong bullish uptrend for the past few weeks, so I’m not surprised that price has once again reached all-time highs. As anticipated, price mitigated the demand zone and continued pushing upward.
For this week, I expect price to accumulate and retrace back down to my 11-hour demand zone, where I anticipate signs of weakening before a new bullish move to the upside. Since this demand zone was responsible for the recent break of structure, it has become my point of interest (POI).
Confluences for Gold Buys:
✅ Price remains in a strong bullish trend, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows.
✅ The clean 11-hour demand zone that initiated the last upside move remains unmitigated.
✅ There is liquidity resting above, including the newly formed trendline, which is likely to be taken.
✅ This setup aligns with the overall bullish trend, reinforcing my long bias.
Alternative Scenario:
If price fails to hold at the 11-hour demand zone and breaks the major low, we could see a temporary bearish phase or a potential reaction from the 7-hour demand zone instead.
Wishing everyone a great trading week! 🔥📈
SPAIN35 in Strong Uptrend - Continuation Toward 12,819?OANDA:ESPIXEUR is trading within a strong uptrend, supported by a rising trendline that highlights bullish momentum. The price has consistently made higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the trend continuation structure.
I anticipate that if the index maintains its current upward momentum, it could move toward the 12,819 level. This setup aligns with the broader bullish trend, supported by the sustained price action above the trendline and recent breakout behavior.
Traders should monitor for potential pullbacks toward the trendline for opportunities to join the trend, with confirmation signals such as bullish candlesticks or strong buying volume.
GBPNOK at Key Demand Zone: Rebound Toward 14.0198?FOREXCOM:GBPNOK reached a significant demand zone, marked by prior strong price reactions and buying pressure. This level has historically acted as a support zone, indicating the potential for a bullish reversal if buyers regain control.
The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms a rejection from this demand zone, we could see a move upward toward the 14.0198 level, which aligns with a logical retracement.
Traders should watch for bullish confirmation signals, such as bullish engulfing candles or higher lows, before entering long positions.
COPPER at Key Resistance: Will Sellers Push Toward 4.5230?PEPPERSTONE:COPPER has reached a significant resistance level, marked by prior price rejections and strong selling pressure. This area has historically acted as strong supply, suggesting the potential for a bearish reversal if sellers regain control.
If the price confirms a rejection within this supply zone, I anticipate a move downward toward the 4.5230 level. This setup suggests the possibility of a retracement after the recent upward movement.
Traders should look for bearish confirmation signals, such as bearish engulfing candles or strong rejection wicks, before entering short positions.
EURUSD 24-28 Feb 2025 W9 - Weekly Analysis - US GDP / PCE Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 24-28 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
Inflation Data Dominates
Hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI/PPI initially fueled inflation fears, but signs of moderation in underlying PPI components raised hopes for softer PCE data next week.
Investors see a growing chance of Fed rate cuts in late 2025, limiting USD strength.
Tariff Noise vs. Market Calm
Trump’s tariff threats (e.g., reciprocal steel/aluminum duties) were largely dismissed as negotiation tactics, easing fears of an immediate trade war.
Markets expect delays in implementation, reducing near-term volatility.
Geopolitical Progress Supports Risk Sentiment
Reports of progress in Ukraine-Russia peace talks (e.g., territory swaps) reduced safe-haven demand for the USD, indirectly boosting the Euro.
Stabilizing energy prices and supply chains further supported the Eurozone outlook.
Central Bank Divergence
The Fed remains cautious, emphasizing data dependency, while the ECB signals potential rate cuts later in 2025.
Short-term EUR resilience stems from reduced trade-war risks and improving Eurozone economic data.
Focus on Upcoming Catalysts
This week PCE inflation report (Fed’s preferred gauge) will test disinflation optimism.
Weak U.S. retail sales/industrial production amplified concerns about slowing growth, weighing on the USD.
Key Takeaways
Bullish Drivers:
Progress in geopolitical tensions.
Softening inflation expectations ahead of PCE data.
Tariffs seen as negotiation tools, not immediate threats.
Bearish Risks:
A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.
Overall Sentiment:
Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD this week, with upside hinging on sustained risk appetite and confirmation of disinflation trends.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Internal Bearish (Pullback Phase)
🔹In Swing Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS)
3️⃣
🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase.
🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous weeks analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS.
🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after volatile week.
🔹With the previous week solid Bullish close, the Demand did hold and there is a high probability that price could continue Bullish to facilitate the INT structure pullback phase.
🔹If price to continue Bullish, price will be targeting the liquidity above Dec 2024, INT Structure EQ (50%) at 1.06933 to target the Weekly Supply in premium before continuing down to target the Weak INT Low.
🔹Expectations is for price to continue Bullish if it managed to break 1.05333 27 Jan High to facilitate the INT structure pullback.
Daily Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone.
3️⃣
🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone.
🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low.
🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH.
🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase.
🔹Previous week I mentioned “if the Daily formed a Bullish CHoCH (Currently above the recent mitigated Supply) this will shift my outlook to the Weekly Scenario of a deep pullback of the Weekly INT Structure to at least the Structure EQ (50%). MTF required to shift Bullish to confirm”. And with that happened I’d shifted to Bullish expectation and there is expectations of a deep pullback within the Daily Bearish INT structure.
🔹The expected targets for the current bullish move is 1st to sweep the liquidity above the equal highs (17 Dec & 27 Jan) 2nd Break of the Strong INT High to facilitate the Daily Bearish Swing pullback and the Weekly Bearish INT pullback.
🔹Currently Supply is failing and Demand is holding confirms the short-term Bullish scenario and setting my expectations for continuing Bullish. Price had pulled back to the recent Daily Demand and continued Bullish.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply)
🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%)
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹As expected yesterday, price managed to continue Bullish after reaching the INT-INT structure EQ (50%) in a solid impulsive move aligns with the Swing continuation move.
3️⃣
🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme where we are getting the current corrective Bearish OF.
Economic Events for the Week
USD-JPY Will Grow! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-JPY has almost
Reached a horizontal
Support level of 148.530
After trading in a strong
Downtrend for some time
So a local bullish correction
Is to be expected with the
Aim of retesting the
Target level above at 149.665
Buy!
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CHF-JPY Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CHF-JPY keeps falling down
But will soon hit a horizontal
Support level of 165.280
And as the pair is locally
Oversold we will be expecting
A local bullish rebound and
And a move up
Buy!
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CADCHF - Short Setup at Key ResistanceOANDA:CADCHF Is getting closer to a resistance zone that has times before lead to strong bearish momentum. A confirmation of selling pressure, such as a bearish engulfing pattern or multiple rejection wicks at the resistance level, would increase the likelihood of a downward move.
If sellers take control at this zone, the pair could move downward, with a target around the 0.63200 level.
NOT financial advice - just my view on support and resistance zones, Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management!
Best of luck! Again!
GBP_JPY SUPPORT AHEAD|LONG|
✅GBP_JPY is set to retest a
Strong support level below at 187.066
After trading in a local downtrend from some time
Which makes a bullish rebound a likely scenario
With the target being a local resistance above at 189.186
LONG🚀
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