Smcanalysis
Week of 4/13/25: AUDUSD AnalysisDaily bias is bullish, prior week ended bullish with a V shape recovery showing that bulls are in control. As always our MTF internal structure dictates our immediate bias (bullish) and until it breaks, we're continuing our longs.
Price is reaching an important level at the extreme of the HTF supply level so once price gets there, it's good to see what happens next.
Major News: Unemployment Claims - Thursday
WEEK OF 4/6/25: EURUSD AnalysisLast week ended bullish for the pair, but there is a correction occuring at the moment so we will follow the MTF internal structure (bearish) until it reaches the daily and 4h POI to look for bullish price action.
Internal MTF structure is always king and we will need that to shift before looking for longs.
Major news: Inflation - Thursday
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Ethereum Analysis - Bull Trap - Don't Buy!COINBASE:ETHUSD recently tapped into the 1,800$ order block, but rather than signaling a bullish reversal, this level appears to be pure inducement. There is no fair value gap above this zone, meaning there’s no true imbalance that price needs to mitigate. This suggests that smart money is not positioning for higher prices here, but instead using this level to lure in retail longs before engineering a deeper move to the downside.
The broader market structure remains bearish, with price continuously making lower highs and lower lows. While many traders may see the 1,800 order block as a support level, the absence of a fair value gap indicates that this area lacks real institutional interest. Instead, it serves as a liquidity pool where market makers can absorb buy orders before driving price lower. The true liquidity targets lie below, particularly around the 600$ levels, where a significant number of stop losses and liquidation points are resting. These levels act as magnets, and until they are taken, the probability of a sustained bullish move remains low.
Additionally, the inefficiencies left in the previous sharp upward move suggest that price still has unfinished business to the downside. Smart money thrives on liquidity, and the clean lows below 600$ offer an attractive area for a deeper sweep before any meaningful bullish expansion can take place. This is a classic case of market manipulation, where early longs are baited into the market just before a significant downside move clears out weaker hands.
Once liquidity has been swept from the 600$ regions, the probability of a true reversal increases. At that point, institutional players will have accumulated enough liquidity to justify a move higher. The most logical upside target following this sweep is the 2,700 order block, which aligns with a previous imbalance and a major area of institutional interest. However, until the sell-side liquidity is fully taken out, any attempt at longs is premature and likely to result in being used as exit liquidity for smart money.
In conclusion, the current price action is a textbook example of liquidity engineering. The move down into 1,800$ was a carefully orchestrated inducement to trap buyers before a deeper price correction. The most probable scenario is a continued decline to sweep liquidity below 600$, at which point smart money will begin repositioning for a true bullish move toward 2,700. Until then, every attempt to push higher is likely just part of a larger manipulation cycle designed to fuel the next major market move.
EURGBP Market Structure Analysis on 4 Hour Timeframe4H swing is bullish => current is pullback
M15 swing is bearish.
Currently giving CHoCH reversal signal.
We can look for buying opportunities in this area.
More carefully, we wait for the price to break the top to confirm the 15-minute reversal frame.
Week of 3/30/25: EURUSD Weekly AnalysisEURUSD has healthy price action with the MTF switching to bullish, once MTF aligns with the daily, we're definitely good to go on longs. For now waiting for price action to show us that it wants to move higher.
Major news: NFP Friday
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Week of 3/30/25: AUDUSD Weekly AnalysisWeekly analysis this week, price has been congesting and tightening the last 2 weeks, expecting hopefully a good move this week to breakout of consolidation.
Starting the week with a bearish bias.
Major News: NFP Friday
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MY IDEAL MOVE FOR MNQ1!so MNQ recently broke the bearish daily gap that it had been struggling with for awhile which i expected to happen by the end of this month, and in turn it created a bullish daily imbalance. There are 2 moves that i am expecting right now, the first is for it to either stay in a range for the next 2 days and create a weekly gap, and after we fill the gap next week we push towards ATH's. And the second move is for it to fill the daily gap in these next two days and have a slow and weak approach towards ATH's or completely disrespect the daily and just range. SO MARKET RANGE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS IS IDEAL (for me)
USDCHF - towards 0.90810?OANDA:USDCHF is currently approaching a key support level that has acted as a strong base for upward price movement. Recent price behavior suggests this level could once again turn into a significant demand zone.
If we see confirmation of bullish sentiment—such as increased buying activity or reversal candlestick patterns—there’s potential for the price to go towards 0.90810, aligning with the current trend. If the support is broken, it may point to a reversal in momentum, potentially leading to further declines.
I am prepared for potential volatility to adjust the risk management accordingly.