Smcconcepts
GBPUSD Establishing strength for bear sentiment GBPUSD at extreme(weekly supply zone) hits daily supply zone and moved away indicating a potential bear sentiment if it holds possible target would be 1.25563 or 1.25165 - 1.24511 in to demand zone.
GBPUSD might take liquidity at 1.26531 before dropping.
weekly time frame overview | USDCHF supply zone in control USDCHF established a potential weekly supply imbalance ( w potential imbalance ) in between two zones W supply zone and W demand zone indicating more strength for bear sentiment and also a possibility for a range between this two zones.
if the w potential imbalance remains the W supply zone will be in control.
also if the W demand zone will take control the w potential imbalance will be raided out giving strength to W demand zone thus a bullish sentiment.
EURUSD Long term short ideas from 1.10500 (or 1.11000)This idea is based on my higher time frame bias that I have marked out from a while back, as we are steadily approaching a key level on the HTF. I'm going to be expecting EU to melt back down towards 1.07500 or lower to fill in major imbalances that have been left from before. In addition to this, we are entering the 0.78 region of the fib range which is a more premium zone to sell.
As of now I will be waiting for price to slow down momentum and start showing some signs of weakness, in order for give us a a better sign that price is ready for a reversal. Ideally I want to wait for the 8hr supply on top of the daily however, if we see our lower time confluence i.e. Wyckoff distribution & CHOCH, I will be then looking to enter and hold on an intra-day basis.
Confluences for long term EURUSD shorts are as follows:
- EU is overall bearish on the higher time frame like the (monthly and weekly)
- This is a pro trend trade that will be following the overall market trend.
- Internal structure is also bearish as we have CHOCH on the higher time frame with a BOS.
- Price is approaching a daily supply zone that has caused a BOS to the downside.
- Price is also entering the 0.78 area of the fibonacci range good sign for a potential reaction.
- Lots of FVGs on the higher time frame below as well as major pools of liquidity points.
- Price has also swept lots of liquidity to the upside and has take out most of trend line Liq.
P.S. Personally, I see price most likely reacting off the 8hr supply above the daily, just because there was a previous consolidation that still holds some liquidity above it. Hence why I will be waiting for that to get swept to mitigate the institutional candle that was left by the 8hr POI.
DXY 4H HIGH SWEPTDue to DXY 4H high being swept and not breaking structure a weak low was created, as a result there is now liquidity to be taken at that weak low which will cause DXY to potentially move to the downside in order to mitigate an extreme demand zone. As a result if this happens we can expect currencies such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD to move to the upside.
EUR/USD APPEARS BULLISHWith the DXY temporarily bearish to facilitate a pullback on its 4H leg of price we can expect EUR/USD to be moving bullish Aswell as they are negatively correlated. We need to be vigilant and aware of the fact that supply zones lie ahead meaning that we will be open to sells as we approach those zones. The supply zones may end up causing 4H BoS or further bearish structure to merely mitigate extreme demand zone.
EUR/USD both bullish and bearishEUR/USD seemed to react with a very high amount of momentum to the downside. With such a high momentum move it appears demand zones may potentially fail and a break of structure on the 4H may be approaching. On the flipside 4H bullish structure may hold as lower time frame structures may align and give reason for us to go bullish. If we go bullish, we may go bullish to simply mitigate 4H internal supply zones or to form a new higher high and higher low continuing bullish 4H market structure.
USD/CAD to take daily highWith the 4H now having multiple breaks to the upside and us closing in on the daily high, it appears we may now be able to create a new higher low within the next few days. However, we need to keep in mind that we never actually mitigated a meaningful strong daily demand zone, so price may actually reverse and look for a deeper daily pullback mitigating the daily extreme before taking the daily weak high.