My July And Long-Term Bias on Gold (Xauusd)FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Monthly View On Gold
Currently Gold is at a monthly time frame premium level, which means we can see sell moves on lower time frames anytime from now.
However, when you follow the monthly order flow and price delivery on Gold, you will discover that, prior to this current leg move to the premium draw on liquidity, gold took out sell-side liquidity first before making the move up.
And right now, price has formed a triple top liquidity draw above through the wicks of the 3 leg moves to the premium zone.
I expect price to keep going higher, at least to take out the liquidity at the triple top above.
Also, price is currently at a bullish order block, which can help to push the price higher.
Weekly Time Frame
On Weekly, price is currently at a discount level of the range and currently reacting to the discount PD array of FVG serving as a support for price. Which might hold and push price higher.
Overall, for July, I expect Gold to be bullish.
The only reason price might drop is to rebalance an imbalance below the price, which is less likely to happen this month.
But, hey, this is a Financial market where market makers determine the direction of price delivery they want.
What do you see on your chart for Gold?
Smcconcepts
A Comprehensive Guide to Order BlocksOrder Blocks Explained
Now we'll look at one of the important concepts we utilize to find our precise entry points:
order blocks.
So, what exactly is an order block? An orderblock is a visible spot on the chart where a
large order is being placed on the market. You'll notice the order being placed, followed
by a quick move from that region, leaving behind imbalances and a structures would be
broken
The candle before that impulsive move is what we call an "order block," but I want you to
remember that order blocks are essentially areas of supply and demand in the markets,
and we'll go over that later in an other idea.
Essentially, an order block is the fingerprint that market makers and
institutions leave behind on the charts that informs us of their activity and intent
which we can capitalise on. Unlike retail traders, the capital available to market
makers and institutions is enough to move the market and affect price. For this
reason, there are differences in the ways that market makers and retail traders go
about trading in the financial markets.
The first difference to understand is that market makers and institutions
cannot simply place a buy or a sell trade. Due to the high amounts of volume
behind each trade they place (millions of lots), a single buy or sell from institutions
would crash the market. For this reason, they have to hedge each position. In other
words, each time they place a buy, they have to place a sell at the same price, and
vice versa. For example, if a buy is placed at 1.34610, and price moves up 100
pips, the buy trade will be 100 pips in profit, whereas the sell trade from the same
price will be 230 pips in loss. Essentially there is an equal floating profit and loss.
The second difference between retail traders and market makers is that
market makers and institutions do not trade with a stop loss, therefore, the floating
loss in the sell trade from the example above won’t close itself. Therefore, once the
market is at a desirable high, market makers will close the buy positions in profit,
let the price trickle back to their entry point, and close the sell trade at breakeven.
Bullish Orderblock (Demand)
Looking at this textbook example, we can see that the red block was the last bearish candle before the impulsive move, the candle would normally consist mostly body with very minimal wicks, This is what we call our bullish order block. To mark out our OB we draw a zone from the top of the candle to the bottom, but you may also include the wicks.
Bearish Orderblock (Supply)
Looking at this textbook example, we can see that the red block was the last bearish candle before the impulsive move, the candle would normally consist mostly body with very minimal wicks, This is what we call our bullish order block. To mark out our OB we draw a zone from the top of the candle to the bottom, but you may also include the wicks. Looking at this textbook example, we can see that the grey block was the last Bullish candle before the impulsive move, the candle would normally consist mostly body with very minimal wicks, This is what we call our Bearish order block. To mark out our OB we draw a zone from the top of the candle to the bottom, but you may also include the wicks.
HOW TO TRADE USING ORDERBLOCKS
First stage is identifying your higher time frame directional bias. Whether you are looking for intraday or Swing entries you still need to understand which way the market is moving for the pair that you are focusing on. Essentially you want to identify Order blocks from weekly down to the hourly and work off there. However, the more experience you gain, you may find that you can trade intraday moves by having a short term directional bias from lower time frames and finding entries on an even lower time frames. Either way, the concept is exactly the same.
From above we can see a clear break of structure, this is the first thing we look for before looking for OBs. Reason for this, we want to find the candle that created this move, this candle is our OB. The OB is generally the last opposing candle before the move. So if its a bearish break, the OB is a Bullish candle. However, we need to understand what kind of BOS we look for and how to refine our OBs.
HOW TO REFINE ORDER BLOCKS
There are a few ways to refine the OB. The easiest would be moving left from the OB until you find the candle before the impulse which is still within the OB candles range.
Example:
As we can see above, the green candle following the OB hasn't overly moved or broken the range of the OB. This is now our refined OB. You can do this on all time frames. Alternatively, you can locate your OB, and you can refine down the time frames and find a clear open OB within the OB.
So here on the picture, that little candle with big wicks is our OB, however within that candle on a lower time frame, there is a clear OB and this is now our refined OB. You can go down by as many time frames as you like.
TIP: If you are happy with the RR from a particular time frame OB, then Simply use that one. Don't get greedy and don't use lower time frames if it makes you anxious.
UNDERSTANDING BREAK OF STRUCTURE (BOS)
There are two types of BOS, we prefer a full body break.
This is very simple to understand as shown below:
HOW TO TRADE USING ORDERBLOCKS
Safer entry
Identify your Point of interest on the higher time frame. In this example it was the hourly, however as mentioned, this concept can be applied to any time frame. The higher time frames such as 4 hourly or daily are more more swing entries with hourly and lower being intraday.
So here we can see our higher POI. Now from here, you can look deeper into that OB so you have an idea as to where price could potentially go before reversing. Once you find your OB, you can set an alert at the Open of your OB. This frees up your time, meaning you dont need to sit and stare at the screen. The reason we trade is to for our free time, so why waste time staring and waiting.
Once price taps your higher time frame OB, go to a lower time frame. This is up to you and what you are comfortable with, some prefer 1 min some prefer 15 min its up to you. But what we look for is a BOS and an OB on the lower time frame. Once we find our OB we set a limit order at either THE OPEN of the OB or 50% of the OB. This again is up to you.
Once we set the order and set our target to our higher time frame High in this example.
The benefit of using a safer entry over a risk entry:
- More confirmation for the trade
- May get a better RR for the trade
Cons:
- More time consuming
- Sometimes it may not form a BOS on the lower time frame and price may just shoot from the higher time frame OB. So you may miss trades.
Risky entry
This method is very simple. Once you locate your Higher time frame OB, you simply go down the time frames till you find an OB within the higher time frame OB which is clear. Once you find your OB, mark it out. Use an OB which gives you and RR you are comfortable with. Same as before you can set a limit order at the OPEN or the 50% mark of the OB with your stop loss below the low of the OB or the overall low and target the recent high or low depending on if you are buying or selling.
With this style of entry, it is of course riskier. This method is ideal when there is high momentum in the direction you are aiming for. If its more within a consolidation period, it is not worth trying a risk entry.
Either way you go about, you get similar results and its all dependent on your risk appetite and how you are comfortable trading. Trading is personal to you, you dont need to follow what everyone else is doing. You need to what you are comfortable with doing and how you are happy about going about it.
PSYCHOLOGY
This way of trading is all about precision and finding the market at the perfect time of reversal. However, don't get too greedy with the RR, there is nothing wrong with sacrificing a few PIPS and rr for a safer trade.
having a pip stop loss, is not the goal, having a safe trade and saving capital is the main goal. Our percentages are always gonna be crazy even with a 10 pip stop, so dont always look for a smaller stop if there isn't one available.
Focus on yourself and what you are comfortable with. Don't trade time frames that you are not happy trading. the goal is not to be replicas of Vertex traders. The goal is to be you and be yourself as a trader. Be selfish and think about yourself and your own growth.
FAQ
When do we delete orders? When TP is hit or if there is a new BOS leaving another OB
Best timeframes? Any that makes you comfortable . if lower time frames make you anxious, don't use it. You want to be calm and relaxed when trading, not on edge.
Best pairs? Main indexes or pairs.
AUDUSD FULL MARKET ANALYSIS & BREAKDOWN This is an in-depth market analysis on AUD/USD with signal opportunities levels.
AUD/USD trading ranges was clearly explained for different timeframes.
It holds too much value and contains valuable lessons that you definitely do not want to miss.
Check it out and make sure to like, share and comment in the section below.
According to the plan, the market in search of liquidity #6I don’t know if you are observing how we are decomposing the market in its micro and macro movements, describing its market need.
We are analyzing the weekly market context, as we can observe the last top in which the manipulation for the bearish reaction that is happening at this moment was on July 10th, the reaction was well defined because before the downward reaction the market presented a beautiful accumulation at the edges, always leaving liquidity for price attraction.
What we can observe in the movement is that the market has great potential to continue its bullish position due to its majority structure keeping it attractive to reach the monthly liquidity gap level above 32422.
For this, we are observing the potential for price to react in the short-term position in the average region of 28000 to 29000, as it presents a good configuration to maintain an interesting upward movement.
Criterion with excellent probability, market is in our region, after a solid parameter and entry configuration we will be signaling, as everything is according to plan.
We at GPBots are committed to demonstrating this excellent work, thank you!
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De acordo com o plano, o mercado em busca de liquidez #6
Não sei se vocês estão observando como estamos decompondo o mercado em sua micro e macro movimentação, descrevendo sua necessidade de mercado.
Estamos analisando o contexto do mercado semanal. Como podemos observar, o último topo em que ocorreu a manipulação para a reação bearish que está acontecendo neste momento foi em 10 de julho. A reação foi bem definida, pois antes da reação de baixa, o mercado apresentou uma linda acumulação nas pontas, deixando sempre liquidez para atração de preço.
O que podemos observar na movimentação é que o mercado tem grande potencial para continuar sua posição altista, devido à sua estrutura majoritária manter atrativo alcançar o patamar da lacuna de liquidez do mensal na proporção acima dos 32422.
Para isso, estamos observando o potencial de preço reagir na posição de curto prazo na média da região dos 28000 a 29000, já que apresenta uma boa configuração para manter uma movimentação de alta interessante.
Critério com excelente probabilidade: o mercado está na nossa região. Após um parâmetro sólido e configuração de entrada, estaremos sinalizando, pois está tudo de acordo com o plano.
Nós da GPBots estamos empenhados em demonstrar esse excelentíssimo trabalho. Obrigado!
My Next Week View On GBPUSDFOREXCOM:GBPUSD
GBPUSD is still bullish.
But since we just took out external liquidity, I will wait till it retrace back inside the bullish range to rebalance an imbalance or find support at the 4H order block.
I will be buying GBPUSD at any of the discount PD arrays on 4H.
I will keep buying GBPUSD till we reach the 1.30043 level on weekly and monthly or till we have a shift in market structure on 4H.
Looking at the fact that we are currently at weekly and monthly premium, i expect price to give a some sort of retracement on 4H for smart money to accumulate more positions at any of the 4H discount arrays like FVG, Order Block etc, giving price the necessary support it needed to push up deeper into higher time frame premium arrays.
Usdcad Ready For a Bullish RunMy usdcad bullish view
FOREXCOM:USDCAD
Weekly: Usdcad is bouncing off weekly order block with old high above serving as a draw on liquidity.
4HR: Price took out sellside liquidity and created a shift in market structure leaving behind a clear order block and fair value gap.
Above price, we have multiple buyside liquidity and fair value gap which serve as a draw on liquidity for price.
I expect price to fill the fair value gaps above and take out the buyside liquidity.
Entry: I will set my buy limit order at around 1.31662 ote level.
Stop loss: My stop loss will be place around 1.31128 zone below the swing low.
Take profits: My final take profits will be at 1.36516.
But I will take partials along the way as price take out each of those swing highs on the way.
Do follow me for more updates like this.
EUR/USD shortHello Traders , This is my opinion in EUR/USD
I see that:
1. We will take the PWH -LQ then we will go short and we can get Confirmation in 1min ( enough for me to get confirmation from 1 min not 15 min ) because we sweep the strong LQ
2. We will take buy from the 2nd order block ( that below as we can see in picture ) and we will target the PMH the (purple line)......
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Another Scenario:
1. We will take the PWH -LQ then go Higher to take PMH-LQ ,but we should go short after take PWH-LQ but not to 2nd order block.
ICT Power of 3 Strategy on GoldPower of 3 at work on Gold producing a 8.6RR move on 30/06/2023
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
AMD:
A: Accumulation
M: Manipulation
D: Distribution
Accumulation : Price range during Asian session, accumulating liquidity on both sides of long and shorts.
Manipulation : Price broke the low of the accumulation during London session to take out sell side liquidity and then fill the previous day imbalance.
Distribution : Price move away from the FVG leading to a shift in market structure on 5m time frame, plus a short pull back, follow by a massive move to the upside during the New York session to take out buy side liquidity above.
Fair Value Gap Strategy (FVG): GBPUSD 7.32x Reward TradeCheck out this 7.32RR trade I took today on GBPUSD.
OANDA:GBPUSD
Trade Process:
Daily is bullish with FVG serving as draw on liquidity.
1HR: Took out Sellside liquidity left with BuySide liquidity to take out.
15M: London Session open took out 15M sellside liquidity with high probability of taking out Buyside liquidity.
Entry: I used my fib to locate OTE at the FVG which is where i placed my buy limit.
Price retraced to pick my order and fly high to take out the buyide liquidity and the daily FVG.
EURUSD SHORT ENTRYHey folks! if u missed out on the first entry supply zone after price made a change of character on 15 mins to align back to the H4 CHoCH, not to worry as theres a second supply zone to take a short from now. Our short term target for EURUSD is 1.0844 and our stop loss should be around 1.0925. Remember to always apply proper risk and money management on all trades. Love to see your comments