SMC - Swing Structure / Supply & Demand / LiquidationWe either wait for the box below to get mitigated (a 15m POI refined in the 5m..) or we go straight to the 4h Inside Bar Box and then we need a bit more confirmation to short. but both ends we are happy with, alerts are set and now we can play the waiting game :)
Smcconcepts
BTC FORECAST I had a forecast on *BTC* ( Bitcoin ) last month and my sentiment is that;
we are likely to start going bullish on BTC...
_could hit 37k .... but for now I don't trust the big figures of the BTC from 45k upwards but, we also have higher chances of reaching that on the run_
we have two demand zones, the current one we just mitigated is around *19k to 16k* and this the one that I feel is likely to start the bullish move
the second demand zone lies around *11k and 9k*
although this zone shows nicely on the monthly view but.. I see this second zone as a weak zone due to the low impulse coming from it as seen clearly on the weekly...
But we have this first demand to be a very valid one and is like to start the BTC bullish move.
it has a vice inefficient price action on it way up, it also broke structure and we have a nice impulse coming from it.
I feel if BTC moves below 16K I don't know what could happen next. it could mean the end of BTC
as of now 11k is a death path for BTC... I would advice any investor to start investing in BTC now.
StefanFX.......
EURUSD OVERALL MONTHLY BIAS EURUSD finally got to an all time demand zone at
1.0154 & 0.9563
A premium zone that is likely to shift the overall trend of EU to beign bullish.
EXPECTATION
we might experience consolidation on EU due to DXY still beign bullish for awhile..
also expecting dxy buys to reach it's climax soon..
then we might start getting a clear shift on EU and probably other USD cross liars too.
EURUSD (London Session Forecast)Price is Bearish on all time frames (Daily, 4H, 15m). There has been a BOS on both the Daily & 4H so we can expect to see a pullback. 15m Price action suggests we could see a trend change soon as price starts to descend suggesting weakness. The high probability trade will be to wait for the 15m to switch Bullish and then trade both the 4H and Daily pullbacks.
Simple Bullish Momentum Opportunity on AUDNZD1. Monthly momentum up (2 confirmations)
2. Weekly low likely to form between Monday - Wednesday (ideally into one of our two zones)
3. Structure shifting upwards
4. Waiting for 4h confirmation for main entry
5. Optional scale ins on 30m once the move is initiated.
Any questions? Let me know in the comments
Simple Block to Block Trading SetupLogic
1. Failed to close below monthly level last week
2. High probability of reaching next daily level of significance
3. Waiting for 4h or 1h break of structure to confirm directional shift
4. Entry on retrace & confirmation
Let me know if you have any questions!
EURUSD (London Session Forecast)Daily & 4h remains Bearish. There was a recent BOS on the Daily so its reasonable to expect price to pullback in the near future. The 15m has recently switched bullish and currently respecting a minor Demand Chain. There is also 4h Supply that is in the way of price breaking to the upside. If price runs the high causing 4h Supply to fail, I will then look to position myself long and trade the daily pullback.
CADCHF Forecast - High RR, High probability ScenariosMonthly & Weekly level cluster, strong weekly rejection closes and 4h structure breaking to the upside. Already in one position from the low, ideally waiting for a retrace to into the zone marked, or potentially a little lower before anticipating upside.
It's possible we don't abide by either of these scenarios and go down once more before a move up, but there's a very high probability of price going higher. Fundamental catalysts can influence this but as always, we want to keep our minds clear and not fill it with too much information, otherwise we'll become emotional and make silly decisions.
Remember, as with any forecast things can change and the most important thing is to stay reactive - never marry a prediction. Behaviour always comes first.
EURUSD (London Session Forecast)There has been a recent BOS to the downside on both the Daily and 4H. So it's reasonable to expect a pullback on those time frames. The 15m has now switch Bullish suggesting that the pullback is now in play. If price returns to my Demand levels I will look to take longs.
AUDUSD (Asian Session)Daily and 4h are bearish. 15m currently Bullish, however price is running into 4h Supply. If I see a strong reaction to 4h Supply and the 15m switches bearish I will look to take shorts. Important - RBA announcement later today, so wont be taking any trades 1h before or after the news.