Smcconcepts
XAUUSD Unclear Double Sided Scenario Alternative CountXAUUSD is showing two directions bullish and bearish. Both directions are valid as they do not violate Elliott Wave Theory rules/guidelines.
Bullish scenario
We are done moving in the downside direction. As a flat correction on a bigger timeframe or higher timeframe. And what we are seeing now is a series of ones to the upside. If you look at the 1 to 4-hour timeframe analysis we have 1-2-3 sequences and waiting for a 4 before executing the long idea. To go long for the long term we might want to wait for a deeper pullback for 2wave 2 before buying.
Bearish scenario
The downside is not yet over we have to complete the fifth wave phase at the 1.618 Fibonacci level for the extended wave 5. To trade this situation you enter at the current price and use the marked purple level as the invalidation level. It's a risky bet but it can pay off. If can consider both directions and still come out a winner but we have to micro-manage to see the price reach a certain level and let it run.
GJ ( GPYJPY ) Tuesday Equity open Entry 2nd August buy limitAnalysis conclusion is made by seeing the Bullish Momentum, ICT Model can be applied. Ive seen this happen before in my backtesting I'm overall confident even though we are opposing the trend for this Scalp
we can target the 1 Hour Range EQ ( 50% ), im going to move SL To entry as seen at 1:1 and im targeting the Institutional level which also sits at a 15M Orderblock.
Feel free to join in the trade and let me know if you have any questions.
DXY - Bearish OB on H1Comment Ideas and/or any reasons why you would or wouldn't take this trade!
Going short on DXY.
Setup 1 :
Sell Limit @ 107.219
S/L: 107.495
T/P: 105.476
Profit/Loss = 6.32
Setup 2 (Lower-Risk):
Sell Limit @ 107.319
S/L: 107.531
T/P: 105.476
Profit/Loss = 8.69
Why?
- Retraced back up past 0.79 & 0.759( OTEs ) on Fib filling market imbalance left from previous sell
- Market imbalance left behind from previous buys (FVGs)
- Current momentum is Bearish
- Strong rejection from Bearish OB
Why not?
- DXY did not break market structure to make a new low - not required but good to have as confirmation for direction
- DXY has the potential to break bearish OB and create a new high - New low has not been made on higher timeframes
- Lower timeframes are not as reliable as higher ones
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Remember, only risk up to 5% of your account per trade. There are two potential setups for this trade so if you are going to take one, it is almost always better to place a lower-risk trade that you might miss than a high risk one that has a higher risk
This material is for educational purposes ONLY.
Trade smart.
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Glossary:
OTE = Optimal Trade Entry (Most opportune place to enter a trade)
OB = Order Block (Where price is likely to make a reversal)
FVG = Fair Value Gap (Gaps left when only sellers/buyers were moving price down/up)
Still Valid - EURJPY Bullish OB on D1Bullish OB was formed on the EURJPY chart and price has come down to test it, where do you think it will go?
Comment Ideas and/or any reasons why you would or wouldn't take this trade!
Going long on EURJPY .
Setup:
Buy Limit @ 138.529
S/L: 137.871
T/P: 143.858
Why?
- Current overall momentum is bullish
- Retraced back up past 0.79 & 0.759( OTEs ) on Fib filling market imbalance left from previous sell
- Market imbalance left behind from previous buys (FVGs)
- We are already seeing some rejection from Bullish OB
- D1 Structure tends to be more reliable than lower timeframes
Why not?
- EURJPY has the potential to break Bullish OB and create a new low
- EURJPY created new swing low on lower TF.
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Remember, only risk up to 5% of your account across all open positions.
This material is for educational purposes ONLY.
Trade smart.
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Glossary:
OTE = Optimal Trade Entry (Most opportune place to enter a trade)
OB = Order Block (Where price is likely to make a reversal)
FVG = Fair Value Gap (Gaps left when only sellers/buyers were moving price down/up)
🇺🇸 US30 - NY Session - 26th July 2022 🇺🇸 US30 - NY Session - 26th July 2022
Narrative - Looking at both sides of the market in this session due to bearish 4h OF and HTF bearish intent as well playing the bullish LTF swing range and LTF OF ranges. Will prioritise trading with LTF OF due to the conflicting nature of the LTF swing range and 4h OF..
EURUSDSellers seem to be maintaining momentum to plunge price;
The 1.040 level looks promising for injecting sell orders!!
But technically, 4H chart shows that levels ranging 1.023-1.025 have proven to be a strong resistance for Buyers as Sell Orders have proven to be around these areas and price might need not get to 1.040 levels. These resistant levels have clearly shown institutional foot prints conducting re-distribution and this is worthy of note owing to the fact that these lurking foot prints are becoming more conspicuous after ECB just recently hiked interest rates by 50bps on July 21st, 2022.
Commitment of Traders report as displayed by Chicago Mercantile Exchange suggests the net position of categorized traders on the future contract of the Euro FX gravitating towards the shorts as Price is seen to be trading around a key resistance earlier expounded around the technicals.
Of course, there are intricacies to the analytical decisions drawn but for the sake of summary, this might provide a compass to figuring out sniper entries. Yes, Sniper Entries.
In my Opinion, Expectations of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve will see #EURUSD plummeting; breaking through parity level.
It just might get worse for Euro.
#InterestRates #Commodity #Currency #forextrading #futures #TradehoodAcademy #Institutionallevels
EURUSD | BEARISHNESSSellers seem to be maintaining momentum to plunge price;
The 1.040 level looks promising for injecting sell orders!!
But technically, 4H chart shows that levels ranging 1.023-1.025 have proven to be a strong resistance for Buyers as Sell Orders have proven to be around these areas and price might need not get to 1.040 levels. These resistant levels have clearly shown institutional foot prints conducting re-distribution and this is worthy of note owing to the fact that these lurking foot prints are becoming more conspicuous after ECB just recently hiked interest rates by 50bps on July 21st, 2022.
Commitment of Traders report as displayed by Chicago Mercantile Exchange suggests the net position of categorized traders on the future contract of the Euro FX gravitating towards the shorts as Price is seen to be trading around a key resistance earlier expounded around the technicals.
Of course, there are intricacies to the analytical decisions drawn but for the sake of summary, this might provide a compass to figuring out sniper entries. Yes, Sniper Entries.
In my Opinion, Expectations of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve will see #EURUSD plummeting; breaking throught parity level.
It just might get worse for Euro.
#InterestRates #Commodity #Currency #forextrading #futures #TradehoodAcademy #Institutionallevels
Potential Bullish Opportunity on GBPCHFAlthough the price has reached a weak 4H POI from Mar 2020, but the price has shown a great change of character (or change of trend) combined with a break of structure, showing that the price is potentially making a reversal to the way up.
Plus, the bullish trend that break the structure is strong and left a few of demand zones behind. (Which is also the blue and gray rectangle I marked)
Additionally, there is a trend liquidity when the price is on the way down to the POI, meaning that some orders right there has to be filled.
Look in lower time frame for further confirmation.
SMC - Swing Structure / Supply & Demand / LiquidationWe either wait for the box below to get mitigated (a 15m POI refined in the 5m..) or we go straight to the 4h Inside Bar Box and then we need a bit more confirmation to short. but both ends we are happy with, alerts are set and now we can play the waiting game :)
BTC FORECAST I had a forecast on *BTC* ( Bitcoin ) last month and my sentiment is that;
we are likely to start going bullish on BTC...
_could hit 37k .... but for now I don't trust the big figures of the BTC from 45k upwards but, we also have higher chances of reaching that on the run_
we have two demand zones, the current one we just mitigated is around *19k to 16k* and this the one that I feel is likely to start the bullish move
the second demand zone lies around *11k and 9k*
although this zone shows nicely on the monthly view but.. I see this second zone as a weak zone due to the low impulse coming from it as seen clearly on the weekly...
But we have this first demand to be a very valid one and is like to start the BTC bullish move.
it has a vice inefficient price action on it way up, it also broke structure and we have a nice impulse coming from it.
I feel if BTC moves below 16K I don't know what could happen next. it could mean the end of BTC
as of now 11k is a death path for BTC... I would advice any investor to start investing in BTC now.
StefanFX.......
EURUSD OVERALL MONTHLY BIAS EURUSD finally got to an all time demand zone at
1.0154 & 0.9563
A premium zone that is likely to shift the overall trend of EU to beign bullish.
EXPECTATION
we might experience consolidation on EU due to DXY still beign bullish for awhile..
also expecting dxy buys to reach it's climax soon..
then we might start getting a clear shift on EU and probably other USD cross liars too.
EURUSD (London Session Forecast)Price is Bearish on all time frames (Daily, 4H, 15m). There has been a BOS on both the Daily & 4H so we can expect to see a pullback. 15m Price action suggests we could see a trend change soon as price starts to descend suggesting weakness. The high probability trade will be to wait for the 15m to switch Bullish and then trade both the 4H and Daily pullbacks.