Super positive view of SMCIOn the last Friday, SMCI stock showed clear ABC pattern with decreasing near by 0.618.
However, there were not strong bound with weak buying. So, it is fifty fifty.
It could be start of big 3 wave or just stopping by the support line.
In addition, it depends on Nvidia stock movement.
SMCI
Members Daily Analysis - May 22 2024Markets Sold off: IWM (Small caps) underperformed.
Most commodities hit on the downside: Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil
Natural Gas surging & squeezing
NVDA pumping on earnings: Our SOXL calls will print.
SemiConductors i'll be trading tomorrow. NASDAQ:ON , NASDAQ:SMCI , NASDAQ:ARM
Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) Growth Fueling Investor's Support Alset Capital Inc. has announced that Cedarcross International Technologies Inc. has signed a $26 million contract with an arm's length counterparty to distribute 64 Nvidia H100 HGX 8GPU servers, generating $26 million in revenue for Cedarcross.
Nvidia's H100 GPU Servers are used in "Transformational AI Training", offering up to 7x higher performance for High Performance Computing applications. Cedarcross continues to demonstrate its ability to secure competitive pricing and expedited lead times for highly sought-after Nvidia H100 GPU servers through key industry partnerships, including with Earthmade Computer Corp., an authorized distributor of Super Micro Computer, Inc.
The estimated gross margin from this agreement will be approximately $2.3 million. The company has also increased its consideration payable pursuant to its extended engagement with Omni8 Communications Inc. DBA Omni8 Global ("OMNI8 Extended Term") to assist Alset in developing a corporate marketing strategy, providing marketing and public relations advisory services, and assisting with various other public relations efforts. Alset shall pay OMNI8 Global an additional $180,000 for the OMNI8 Extended Term, which will run for two months and commence on May 8, 2024, and the date the OMNI8 Extended Term is accepted for filing by the TSX Venture Exchange.
Super Micro Computer ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) is in a rising trend channel in the medium and long term, with rising trends indicating positive development and increasing buy interest among investors. The stock closed Wednesday's trading session up 15.81% with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 59.77 which is primed for further gains.
SMCI accumulation phase. Patience will be rewarded.Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) gave us an excellent sell opportunity two months ago (March 08, see chart below) that allowed us to short on time and target perfectly the 1D MA100 (red trend-line on the chart below, green trend-line on the one above):
The 1D MA100 has so far held twice successfully but even if it breaks, don't be alarmed as this will most likely be part of the standard multi-month Accumulation Phase when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, which when completed sends SMCI as high as +417.86% from the bottom (that was the % rise during the last two mega rallies).
As a result, the time to buy this stock is now. Hold and you will be rewarded. It can potentially reach as high as $3500, even though $1500 certainly is good enough and more plausible on the medium-term.
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SMCI Super Micro Computer Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the SMCI 10X call:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SMCI Super Micro Computer prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 750usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-8-16,
for a premium of approximately $209.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
✏️ Weekly Report: Volatility makes Cash the King againGENERAL COMMENTS
Today, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates unchanged, highlighting the ongoing challenges in curbing inflation. Initially, this announcement propelled the markets upwards, but a sharp downturn occurred in the final hour, leading to a decline as the day concluded.
The erratic market behavior demonstrated today makes it increasingly challenging to maintain positions in momentum stocks, and the majority of this quarter's earnings reports have been underwhelming. This situation underscores the strategy that cash remains paramount, complemented by selective, quick trading opportunities, as depicted in the following charts.
I will begin tonight's chart analysis with the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ).
NASDAQ:QQQ
The Qs are forming a bearish formation. What is worrying is that this is below the 50D Simple Moving average. As trading is a probabilities game, we can conclude that this leads to probabilities being lower that we continue to the downside. However, the direction of the general market indexes are very well influenced by the fundmental story of the economy health.
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NASDAQ:SMTC
SMTC is up $4 from the $33 Buy Point (alerted in previous versions of this idea - go and check. Believe and Follow). This peaked yesterday with about +20% profit since the alert last week. Of course the way I manage this is never to let this to turn into a loss. My general go to tool is to take half here.
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NASDAQ:KLAC
KLAC fell back to $687 after missing earnings. This of course stopped me out - but at no loss, since I move stopped up to break-even.
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NASDAQ:SMCI
The stock missed its earnings and suffered a severe reaction of a gap down and drop -20% on the intraday.
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NASDAQ:NVDA
NVDA slashed below the 50D SMA and this stopped me out. Waiting and watching this TML during its base building period.
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NYSE:GS
Up $7 from the $419 buy point with stop raised to $416 just in case.
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NYSE:CRM
CRM is prone to go lower if the market continues falling. A break below $266.50 is great place to short.
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NYSE:LLY
Gapped up on good earnings. The next technical buy point is $801 accommodated with heavy volume.
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NASDAQ:MRNA
Earnings are due out tomorrow. If earnings are good then zooming through the $116 on good volume is a great technical buy point
SMCI simple movementSMCI is following a very even descending resistance line .
As per the chart watch out for a breakout and only make an entry upon breakout of this resistance line
as per recent earnings its good value at the moment (770 ) to get in and accumulate
it can come down to 710 and next support is 670
anything between that value is a very good value to accumulate
so far the earnings are bullish but technically SMCI is in bear trend so please take care of your stop losses
620 is STOP loss
SUPER MICRO COMPUTER, TINY COMPUTER BIG REJECTION TRENDQuick chart.
Price targets marked.
It needs to break over that massive trend otherwise, I'd be careful as a bull.
Support is somewhat weak until we reach that 450 level.
Bigger support comes in lower at around 236.
But both are fairly strong levels.
RSI is kind of getting up there and showing signs of maybe this being an exit move to the upside before a drop.
Yes, there is upside.
Short term trend is climbing right to to 930.
But honestly, It's really hard to tell, and it might reject at a lower target that is more short term than the 930 mark.
879?
Overall remaining neutral because I'm not really sure.
Good luck with your decision on the stock!
Potential short term bounce in SMCIWill the anchored vWAP of $716.80 on the daily chart for SMCI (anchored from the low on 31st October 2023) be defended after Friday's close dipped beneath it? The 15 minute open at 4am this morning ($747.04) looks like a potential intraday key level at this stage...
Super Micro Tanks 19% After Failing to Provide Financial ResultsSuper Micro Computer ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) experienced a significant drop in its stock price after failing to provide any preliminary financial results. The data center computer specialist announced the date for its next quarterly earnings report, which is scheduled for release after the market close on April 30. However, unlike in recent quarters, SMCI did not offer an early look at its results. As a result, SMCI stock plunged below a key support level, flashing a huge sell signal.
NASDAQ:SMCI is based in San Jose, California, and is better known as Supermicro. The company has been the beneficiary of hyperscale cloud service providers investing in servers for artificial intelligence applications. SMCI stock was added to the S&P 500 last month.
In recent years, Super Micro has released preliminary results with the announcement of its quarterly earnings date, including the last two fiscal third quarters. However, this time, the company did not offer any early look at its results.
In morning trades on the stock market, SMCI stock's value dived 18% to 757.51. With this move, it gapped below its 50-day moving average line, a key support level, in above-average trading volume. SMCI stock had been holding to that level during the recent market turmoil. Super Micro stock is 19% below its 10-week moving average, which is a sell signal for a longtime winner even if it's just 2% below the 10-week line.
On Jan. 19, Super Micro shares skyrocketed 35.9% to close at 423.36 after the company disclosed preliminary results with its fiscal-Q2 earnings report date. That sparked a run that finally peaked at 1,229 on March 8.
Analysts are predicting Super Micro earnings of $5.84 a share on sales of $4.01 billion for the fiscal third quarter ended March 31. If this is accurate, it would translate to year-over-year growth of 258% in earnings and 212% in sales.
$AMD Recognize where and whyThis is a chart I created several weeks ago. I find these points of inflection fantastic for support or resistance depending on the PA of course. I've drawn these on several tickers and the outcome is almost always the same. This is just information. Do what you want with it.
DELL pushes price with a big earnings beat LONGDELL reported earnings 27% beyond the estimates and traders reacted. The indicators show
that relative volume was about 10X the running moving average. The RSI dual time frame
indicator ( by Chris Moody) showed a 50-level cross-over on 2/22 one week before earnings.
That was the best early entry and price is up 20% higher since then. The question is whether
is is overextending and so will retrace. The mass index indicator is suggestive of a reversal.
Overall, I will watch price action for bullish continuation while considering the possibility
of a short sell into a retracement if it evolves. No matter volatility is increased I intend
to make the best possible trade in response to what develops.
DELL leaps out of the shadows of SMCI LONGDELL has risen and is now at its all time highs. Apparently, its server intrastructure business
this thriving. It is chasing SMCI and does not have the high valuation ratios that make
SMCI look overextended. The indicators document the up trending price action. A price
forecast algorithm has DELL rising into a high pivot on April 18th with 35% upside to that
forecasted pivot. I am adding to my DELL position here for the anticipated two week trade.
SMCI Critical level IncomingSMCI saw a nasty down move today with the market.
Semiconductors led the downside move today.
It seems massive amount of capital rotated out of the market today.
This low float volume stock can unwind in a sharp way if this support is breached.
Remember dip buyers will likely start to accumulate as semis are coming from All time high bull market.
Everyone is watching the potential head & shoulder pattern that could trigger with more weakness.
Correction Coming for AI? AI technology has been recognized as the new future since the end of 2022. The rapid advancements in AI and its stock prices sparked debates regarding the sustainability of its current valuations.
Indeed, AI technology has a long runway ahead, but like all journeys, it will eventually encounter a bend. In today's tutorial, we are going to study its fundamental and technical reasons why we may have to prepare for a windy and bumpy ride ahead.
E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: NQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $5.00
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Super Micro Computer's AI Server AscendancyIn the bustling landscape of AI server providers, Super Micro Computer Inc. ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) emerges as a beacon of innovation and efficiency, securing its spot in the prestigious S&P 500 index. With close alliances with tech giants like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Super Micro rides the crest of the AI server boom, revolutionizing the market with its agile product development and cutting-edge liquid cooling technology.
Unveiling the Advantages:
Unlike its competitors, Super Micro boasts unparalleled agility in product launch, courtesy of its strategic partnerships with Nvidia and AMD. This advantage propels Super Micro to the forefront of AI server supply, fueling a staggering 289% surge in its shares within a single year. Analysts laud the company's ability to swiftly manufacture, assemble, test, and ship server racks, often within mere weeks, positioning it as a key supplier in the realm of generative AI applications.
Revenue Surge and Market Projections:
Super Micro's meteoric rise isn't merely a fleeting trend; rather, it's a testament to its robust revenue growth, which more than doubled in the final quarter of 2023. Projections paint a rosy picture, with analysts foreseeing triple-digit percentage growth until at least the September quarter of 2024. Bank of America forecasts a substantial increase in Super Micro's share of the AI server market, projecting a rise to 17% by 2026.
Valuation and Risk Factors:
Despite its stellar performance, Super Micro ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) faces scrutiny over its lofty valuation, currently trading at 40 times expected earnings—a significant leap from its PE of 15 just months prior. This valuation hike heightens the risk of a potential selloff should the company falter in meeting future earnings expectations. However, with its proven track record and innovative edge, Super Micro remains poised to navigate these challenges adeptly.
The Liquid Cooling Revolution:
In tandem with the surge in AI server demand, Super Micro ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) spearheads the adoption of liquid cooling technology—an indispensable solution for data center operators grappling with the escalating heat generated by AI chips. Super Micro's proprietary liquid cooling tech, boasting a 40% reduction in power consumption compared to traditional air cooling methods, positions it as a frontrunner in the race towards enhanced efficiency and sustainability in data center operations.
Challenges on the Horizon:
While Super Micro basks in its current success, analysts caution against complacency, highlighting the looming threat of intensified competition from industry heavyweights. Moreover, the company's strategy of offering products at lower rates to gain market share could potentially undermine its profitability in the long run. Nonetheless, with its penchant for innovation and adaptability, Super Micro remains well-equipped to navigate the evolving landscape of AI server provision.
Technical Outlook
NASDAQ:SMCI shares after starting off the day well ended up plummeting by 6.96% despite its inclusion in the S&P 500. Trading with a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 53 indicating there isn't much overbought lately.
SMCI Super Micro Computer Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought SMCI ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SMCI Super Micro Computer prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 480usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-3-1,
for a premium of approximately $42.90.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
MRVL has a melt-down trader reaction to mediocre earnings LONGMRVL on the 2H chart had been in a trend up since February 29th when it broke out of the
high volume area of the profile in a pre-earnings run . Earnings were reported and MRVL
more or less matched the analyst's forecasts. Price sold-off in the aftermath of trader
disappointment. I held a large position of both shares and options but sold off half of
the positions two days ago to capture some profits. I see MRVL as still above VWAP
and so in buying territory and now at a price level supported by the first upper anchored
VWAP line as well as the upper boundary of the high volume area. It is a strong stock which
I do not believe will make a full Fibonacci retracement. I will now add back into my
position half of what I sold a few days ago. and expect a bullish continuation. On a lower
time frame, I have guidance from the inside bars that price is printing in the after hours.
When regular trading arrives on Friday, I will buy call options for mid-April striking
$85 (OTM).