Smctrading
SMC analysis with BTCEarly grind with BTC today. Bias for today is bearish and i'm riding this baby going down. Price reached the 50% of premium range which means it is now ready to go back to it's higher tf trend which is bearish. My trade just got tagged in so now let's wait and see. hopefully tp will be hit as it is the discount zone in 4 hr tf ...
A Comprehensive Guide to Order BlocksOrder Blocks Explained
Now we'll look at one of the important concepts we utilize to find our precise entry points:
order blocks.
So, what exactly is an order block? An orderblock is a visible spot on the chart where a
large order is being placed on the market. You'll notice the order being placed, followed
by a quick move from that region, leaving behind imbalances and a structures would be
broken
The candle before that impulsive move is what we call an "order block," but I want you to
remember that order blocks are essentially areas of supply and demand in the markets,
and we'll go over that later in an other idea.
Essentially, an order block is the fingerprint that market makers and
institutions leave behind on the charts that informs us of their activity and intent
which we can capitalise on. Unlike retail traders, the capital available to market
makers and institutions is enough to move the market and affect price. For this
reason, there are differences in the ways that market makers and retail traders go
about trading in the financial markets.
The first difference to understand is that market makers and institutions
cannot simply place a buy or a sell trade. Due to the high amounts of volume
behind each trade they place (millions of lots), a single buy or sell from institutions
would crash the market. For this reason, they have to hedge each position. In other
words, each time they place a buy, they have to place a sell at the same price, and
vice versa. For example, if a buy is placed at 1.34610, and price moves up 100
pips, the buy trade will be 100 pips in profit, whereas the sell trade from the same
price will be 230 pips in loss. Essentially there is an equal floating profit and loss.
The second difference between retail traders and market makers is that
market makers and institutions do not trade with a stop loss, therefore, the floating
loss in the sell trade from the example above won’t close itself. Therefore, once the
market is at a desirable high, market makers will close the buy positions in profit,
let the price trickle back to their entry point, and close the sell trade at breakeven.
Bullish Orderblock (Demand)
Looking at this textbook example, we can see that the red block was the last bearish candle before the impulsive move, the candle would normally consist mostly body with very minimal wicks, This is what we call our bullish order block. To mark out our OB we draw a zone from the top of the candle to the bottom, but you may also include the wicks.
Bearish Orderblock (Supply)
Looking at this textbook example, we can see that the red block was the last bearish candle before the impulsive move, the candle would normally consist mostly body with very minimal wicks, This is what we call our bullish order block. To mark out our OB we draw a zone from the top of the candle to the bottom, but you may also include the wicks. Looking at this textbook example, we can see that the grey block was the last Bullish candle before the impulsive move, the candle would normally consist mostly body with very minimal wicks, This is what we call our Bearish order block. To mark out our OB we draw a zone from the top of the candle to the bottom, but you may also include the wicks.
HOW TO TRADE USING ORDERBLOCKS
First stage is identifying your higher time frame directional bias. Whether you are looking for intraday or Swing entries you still need to understand which way the market is moving for the pair that you are focusing on. Essentially you want to identify Order blocks from weekly down to the hourly and work off there. However, the more experience you gain, you may find that you can trade intraday moves by having a short term directional bias from lower time frames and finding entries on an even lower time frames. Either way, the concept is exactly the same.
From above we can see a clear break of structure, this is the first thing we look for before looking for OBs. Reason for this, we want to find the candle that created this move, this candle is our OB. The OB is generally the last opposing candle before the move. So if its a bearish break, the OB is a Bullish candle. However, we need to understand what kind of BOS we look for and how to refine our OBs.
HOW TO REFINE ORDER BLOCKS
There are a few ways to refine the OB. The easiest would be moving left from the OB until you find the candle before the impulse which is still within the OB candles range.
Example:
As we can see above, the green candle following the OB hasn't overly moved or broken the range of the OB. This is now our refined OB. You can do this on all time frames. Alternatively, you can locate your OB, and you can refine down the time frames and find a clear open OB within the OB.
So here on the picture, that little candle with big wicks is our OB, however within that candle on a lower time frame, there is a clear OB and this is now our refined OB. You can go down by as many time frames as you like.
TIP: If you are happy with the RR from a particular time frame OB, then Simply use that one. Don't get greedy and don't use lower time frames if it makes you anxious.
UNDERSTANDING BREAK OF STRUCTURE (BOS)
There are two types of BOS, we prefer a full body break.
This is very simple to understand as shown below:
HOW TO TRADE USING ORDERBLOCKS
Safer entry
Identify your Point of interest on the higher time frame. In this example it was the hourly, however as mentioned, this concept can be applied to any time frame. The higher time frames such as 4 hourly or daily are more more swing entries with hourly and lower being intraday.
So here we can see our higher POI. Now from here, you can look deeper into that OB so you have an idea as to where price could potentially go before reversing. Once you find your OB, you can set an alert at the Open of your OB. This frees up your time, meaning you dont need to sit and stare at the screen. The reason we trade is to for our free time, so why waste time staring and waiting.
Once price taps your higher time frame OB, go to a lower time frame. This is up to you and what you are comfortable with, some prefer 1 min some prefer 15 min its up to you. But what we look for is a BOS and an OB on the lower time frame. Once we find our OB we set a limit order at either THE OPEN of the OB or 50% of the OB. This again is up to you.
Once we set the order and set our target to our higher time frame High in this example.
The benefit of using a safer entry over a risk entry:
- More confirmation for the trade
- May get a better RR for the trade
Cons:
- More time consuming
- Sometimes it may not form a BOS on the lower time frame and price may just shoot from the higher time frame OB. So you may miss trades.
Risky entry
This method is very simple. Once you locate your Higher time frame OB, you simply go down the time frames till you find an OB within the higher time frame OB which is clear. Once you find your OB, mark it out. Use an OB which gives you and RR you are comfortable with. Same as before you can set a limit order at the OPEN or the 50% mark of the OB with your stop loss below the low of the OB or the overall low and target the recent high or low depending on if you are buying or selling.
With this style of entry, it is of course riskier. This method is ideal when there is high momentum in the direction you are aiming for. If its more within a consolidation period, it is not worth trying a risk entry.
Either way you go about, you get similar results and its all dependent on your risk appetite and how you are comfortable trading. Trading is personal to you, you dont need to follow what everyone else is doing. You need to what you are comfortable with doing and how you are happy about going about it.
PSYCHOLOGY
This way of trading is all about precision and finding the market at the perfect time of reversal. However, don't get too greedy with the RR, there is nothing wrong with sacrificing a few PIPS and rr for a safer trade.
having a pip stop loss, is not the goal, having a safe trade and saving capital is the main goal. Our percentages are always gonna be crazy even with a 10 pip stop, so dont always look for a smaller stop if there isn't one available.
Focus on yourself and what you are comfortable with. Don't trade time frames that you are not happy trading. the goal is not to be replicas of Vertex traders. The goal is to be you and be yourself as a trader. Be selfish and think about yourself and your own growth.
FAQ
When do we delete orders? When TP is hit or if there is a new BOS leaving another OB
Best timeframes? Any that makes you comfortable . if lower time frames make you anxious, don't use it. You want to be calm and relaxed when trading, not on edge.
Best pairs? Main indexes or pairs.
AUDUSD FULL MARKET ANALYSIS & BREAKDOWN This is an in-depth market analysis on AUD/USD with signal opportunities levels.
AUD/USD trading ranges was clearly explained for different timeframes.
It holds too much value and contains valuable lessons that you definitely do not want to miss.
Check it out and make sure to like, share and comment in the section below.
Context within the Fair Value Gap and FOMC #7Market context for FOMC
Market is within an accumulative range with a short term buy side, for a bearish move, made a previous bottom with a liquidity that will likely be taken to see Bitcoin rising on a strong reaction to the upside.
Let's see how the FOMC will work within the liquidity left in the market.... !
CHFJPY Looking for BUYCHFJPY is exhibiting a bullish trend on both the daily (D1) and 4-hour (H4) timeframes. It is currently positioned above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), as depicted in the provided chart. After conducting an analysis on the higher timeframes, I proceeded to examine the lower timeframes (H1, M30, and M15). My plan is to initiate a buy trade in the discount area of the H4 swing if the price reaches the demand zone. I will ensure a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (R:R) of more than 1. Additionally, I will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to avoid entering when it indicates overbought conditions.
GBP/JPY Potential Forecast|HTF Analysis| Wednesday, 12 July 2023Hi everyone!
-GBP/JPY give us a nice bullish price delivery previous week and for now is changin the direction (switch in orderflow)
-It have a lot of liquidity and IMB below him so that can be your potential target.
-If you are gonna enter on supply use confirmations.
I hope you will have a great trading day.
EU 4H analysis. Overall looking for longs.This is more a me predicting how price is going to move so if anything changes or doesn't go how I'm expecting I will update the analysis.
Right now I'm expecting price to break above which will create an inducement zone. Once that's taken out and we see a bearish choch we can expect the 4H to give us a pull back before the internal switches bullish. You can take shorts in the mean time only targeting weak internal structure.
Once we have a bullish choch on the 4H I will be looking for lower timeframe confirmation on the 15min to get long targeting the weak 4H taking partials and eventually hitting the overall target being the weak Daily high
NB: The previous bearish BOSs did not have internal structure because of what price showed on the Daily. This is more advanced multi-timeframe analysis so I wont go into the details. If you would like to understand let me know and I'll prepare a tutorial over the weekend
BTCUSD AnalysisBitcoin on weekly supply zone resistance, after rejecting from it the first time, obviously bitcoin is at the zone the second time, seeing the momentum weekly candle, Bitcoin might retrace 50% of the momentum candle.
the possibility for bitcoin to take out the weekly supply zone(sell zone) is 50% compare to possibility for Bitcoin to retrace 50% of the momentum candle is 75%.
the best location to trade Bitcoin is at the 50% of the momentum candle to go Bullish in to the weekly supply zone.
Also note that the weekly bias for Bitcoin is bullish (on ascending trend line)
EURUSD SELL to BUY setup Hey trading view its been a long time ,
this my EURUSD SETUP for the next week ,
Most likely we are still going bearish im targeting the buy OB at 1.07675 ,
Everything is explained on the chart ,,
Along with a simple forecast for the possible scenarios ,,
SHORT AT THE SHORT TERM ,,
LONG AT THE LONG TERM ,,
if you like the setup give it a BOOST & FOLLOW for mare ,,
TRADE SAFELY .
EURUSD SHORT ENTRYHey folks! if u missed out on the first entry supply zone after price made a change of character on 15 mins to align back to the H4 CHoCH, not to worry as theres a second supply zone to take a short from now. Our short term target for EURUSD is 1.0844 and our stop loss should be around 1.0925. Remember to always apply proper risk and money management on all trades. Love to see your comments