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SMH

Which camp are you in? SPY based off of Elliot Wave TheoryBased on the Elliot Wave theory, there are three things that I think ya'll should check out. We are close to a correction but one of them is a two year bear market and the other is a 2-3 month correction before the next impulse wave to the upside. If you guys don't know anything about Elliot Wave theory, I highly recommend reading up on it. There are rules that must be followed but its pretty simple once you study it for a couple of days. Anyways if we sit below 320 on the SPY, we are in for a melt down that basically back tracks to March 2020 lows. If we bounce from 360, we're in for a big ride up to all new highs (SPY 500). But...that maybe the last leg of a real bull market that started in the 1990s (the beginning of digital age). The question is what camp am I in? I think the Fed wants inflation. And I think there is inflation. I literally paid close to $80 for 15lbs of Brisket at Costco when it used to be $35 a year ago. Chicken just got really expensive too. Cost of food is up. I think the Fed wants to raise interest rates. The Fed knows it doesn't have ammunition to soften the blow when a true problem erupts e.g. 2008 crash. With Fed Funds rate at 0, there is no room for mistakes. So my answer is we are in for a big pull back down to 320 but less steep like 2020 and the start of the big correction ABC like 2003 - 2008. Which camp are you in? What are your thoughts? Please like and share.
AMEX:SPY
by CTRLZEEE
1
SMH about to breakoutSMH (the Geek) was resting in the small 4 day week moving laterally but was ready to breakdown on Thursday. But the jobs numbers on Friday being moderately light vs expectations made one more month of positive news for the market signaling "transitory" inflation. That was the turning point as mentioned in my last weeks report. An engulfing candle on Friday and an uptrend MACD makes this extremely bullish. After Fridays action, I see Geek moving higher as 3/4 of the stocks in the group got pummeled way under 21 day ema. This put those stocks this coming week trading above 8 day ema at least. Its possible that it can rest here for a couple of days as well.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by CTRLZEEE
2
SOX, SMH needs to hold hereTheres a saying that SEMIs lead the market. $SMH finally broke an upper band trendline that took alot of work to do because of very little volume. Its tired and wants to rest. This is an important test but bids need to come back. Will June be the month when buyers pile back in? My gut tells me we hit 252 this week then break down again or at least stay above the band. Stocks that had great earnings but got slaughtered will do well. $SMH will be range bound till July earnings.
NASDAQ:SMH
by CTRLZEEE
AMD will not disappoint, 93.75 TGTAs I previously mentioned on my SQ analysis, Semis have been hit hard regardless of great earnings. With semis currently oversold, I see semis run up for the next two weeks along with the likes of AMAT, TSM, QCOM, NVDA, ON, and IIVI. AMD beat earnings and has been taking INTC customers for the past 2 years. INTC is in panic mode trying to regain back their market share. AMD server/pc chips are faster and much reliable and cheaper. Semi shortages is an issue but with current earnings handily beat expectations, I don't see this as an issue moving forward as demand outweighs shortages. See EBAY, StockX, and FB markets for GPUs and CPUs. People still buy them at over 200% retail. China, Taiwan, US coming out of Covid pandemic, ramps up chip production in Q2. A bullish Doji on Friday with good volume. Shorts will get squeezed out at 83.52.
NASDAQ:AMD
by CTRLZEEE
1
SQ classic ABCD pattern with strong earnings will test 275 againSQ has been hammered along with the rest of tech/semi/fintech for the past 2 weeks. With IWM classic bounce off upward trend line with volume and SOXX reversal due to oversold conditions, I can see tech and semi bounce this week for a bull run back to highs. Energy money will flow back to tech while it rests due to overbought conditions and job numbers being abysmal this past Friday. Be cautious of Dow and S&P, it needs to rest but not get sold to maintain uptrend.
NYSE:SQ
by CTRLZEEE
AMAT LongAMAT has been stair-stepping higher in a bull trend lately. In my opinion AMAT has been a leader in one of the stronger industry groups within tech (semiconductor equipment). Yesterday it printed an inverted hammer after failing to make a significant push below the previous low on 4/19. This is the line in the sand. Today it opened near those lows but pushed higher and out of the short-term downtrend on impressive volume. It has consistently found buyers at the 20-day EMA (see arrows) - this area has regularly been a great spot to initiate a long. Today represents a low-risk entry with a stop at the previous day's low (red dotted line).
NASDAQ:AMATLong
by mroberts1204
SMH: Not Smart to Long Semiconductor Index Right NowIt is not a smart decision to open long positions in the semiconductor sector right now (TSM, NVDA, ASML, INTC, AAMT, AMD... etc). As the chart show, the overall performance on SMH is still on the downside trend, blocked by the resistance line on the necklace of the head-shoulder pattern. But it doesn't mean that it is time to short the semiconductor sector, it is better to stay neutral and see if we have the chance to buy the cheap chip in around 200 USD. If the market wouldn't give us the chance to buy in deep, then we can try to create the new positions again when SMH breaks through the resistance and goes with a new uptrend.
NASDAQ:SMH
by jimcurrywang