SMH
SOXS - Thank you We began entries today, given the degenerate squeeze brought to us by
FED wingmen Black Rock and VanGuard.
We'll embrace the .382 level when it trades, even should it fall short in
the 18s, it's 200% off the Wall.
A close over 6.98 will see further additions.
Out first adventure came off an average of 6.12 :)
Hunt, Kill - Profit.
xoxo - Hunter Killer
SOXS - Lower Fills to Gap @ .382We have placed out orders from 7.00 Inversely to 6.00.
.382 will provide first in the series.
We are closely watching the VIX Reaction @ 19.80.
At the moment we've seen a 2 Tick Front Run.
In the next 2 days, the Indices will reverse.
- HK
$SMH Flirting with Danger Zone w/ Implications for the MarketSMH has been a clear leadership area in the market. But the ETF is flirting with a technical breakout failure on a large timeframe.
Of such things big tops are potentially made. This gives the broad market a yellow-light status.
SOXS - Hopefully you joined the BIDFollowers know we nailed the LOWS and indicated a LARGE BUY SIDE
Program that remains in trade.
Higher targets well above, dead ahead.
QQQ - 363 the Level for breakdownClose under 363 on 3XQ's and the reversal will be fulfilled.
Targets below are significantly lower/
SMH may try to make up some ground on a FAB Funding for USA.
Short lived BS Noise.
ES has trade sub 4441, should it close beneath, we have
a confirmed reversal.
VIX has a Micro target today of 20.55 for SEP CT.
TLT will complete Gap Fills.
DX remains stubbornly tight 92 - 93.
Energy Complex seeing Crude Oil in 57-62 range after RTs complete.
6501 held for now, we closed SELLs in heavy position from 6956.
Now it's a waiting game on War Drums.
SOXS - .382 Test Ahead - winner winner chicken dinner SMH FailNice trade setup here.
Enjoy the Ride.
More Coming, buying all retraces.
Higher Targets Ahead.
Semis cooked on Trade.
SOXS - .382 Test Ahead @ 18.72200% Upside here.
Large Volume on Lows.
Panic reversal has setup.
NQ will be the first to fail on Inflation Trade.
FED told us so this week and last.
Digi $'s come home to roost a bit.
Hot CPI assures a D U N K in time, as CON.fidence in BTD
begins to fail.
Volumes at extremes, Divergences at extremes, Valuations at extremes.
Correction ahead for NQ/TECH/SMH as Semis see Geopolitical Risk.
SMH - To short or to press - This is the Question..Top of the ascending channel.. Doesn't mean it won't overshoot but I like the probability here..
(Opinion Only)
Micron internals improvingTechnical Analysis
From the beginning of May, MU has been kept in a range; however:
RSI has been making higher lows where price has been retreating at the same support level.
OBV is confirming the uptrend in volume within the consolidation range.
These two bullet points support a bullish case for MU.
Trade analysis
I expect MU will try to test the roof of the consolidation range at $85.5 approximately; after, a re-test of the 50sma as support could signal a potential buy.
TSM breakout + measured move The chart shows a descending triangle, with a breakout.
The breakout yesterday and today, have been on strong intraday volume.
A measured move can be made by adding the height from the double bottom (purple circles), to the area of the breakout. Using the green arrows to represent the potential move, which takes us to $152 approximately. Which is coincident with the extended move of the fibonacci retracement lines at 61.8%.
$135 and $142 are potential resistance zones, where we could see some profit taking.
$AMD Breakout Hasn't Even Started YetThe chart speaks for itself. Since Su assumed the helm of $AMD the price movement has been predictable. Long periods of consolidation followed by breakouts and long term uptrends. Will the pattern play out again? I believe so. I started a position at $84, added to it above the mid channel around $87 and I'll be looking to fill my position at a close above resistance around $97. Thoughts?
$NVDA Bearish candlesticks pattern targeting 650 620Shooting star or big doji its bearish pattern on daily candles - Bearish signal can be triggered below 720 - Overbought indicators - Expected Split at 20 Jul so its risky trade to short prior to the split process but technically its overbought and can be corrected to the level of previous major breakout levels. cancel short idea above ATH Only!
Which camp are you in? SPY based off of Elliot Wave TheoryBased on the Elliot Wave theory, there are three things that I think ya'll should check out. We are close to a correction but one of them is a two year bear market and the other is a 2-3 month correction before the next impulse wave to the upside. If you guys don't know anything about Elliot Wave theory, I highly recommend reading up on it. There are rules that must be followed but its pretty simple once you study it for a couple of days. Anyways if we sit below 320 on the SPY, we are in for a melt down that basically back tracks to March 2020 lows. If we bounce from 360, we're in for a big ride up to all new highs (SPY 500). But...that maybe the last leg of a real bull market that started in the 1990s (the beginning of digital age).
The question is what camp am I in? I think the Fed wants inflation. And I think there is inflation. I literally paid close to $80 for 15lbs of Brisket at Costco when it used to be $35 a year ago. Chicken just got really expensive too. Cost of food is up. I think the Fed wants to raise interest rates. The Fed knows it doesn't have ammunition to soften the blow when a true problem erupts e.g. 2008 crash. With Fed Funds rate at 0, there is no room for mistakes. So my answer is we are in for a big pull back down to 320 but less steep like 2020 and the start of the big correction ABC like 2003 - 2008.
Which camp are you in? What are your thoughts? Please like and share.
SMH about to breakoutSMH (the Geek) was resting in the small 4 day week moving laterally but was ready to breakdown on Thursday. But the jobs numbers on Friday being moderately light vs expectations made one more month of positive news for the market signaling "transitory" inflation. That was the turning point as mentioned in my last weeks report. An engulfing candle on Friday and an uptrend MACD makes this extremely bullish. After Fridays action, I see Geek moving higher as 3/4 of the stocks in the group got pummeled way under 21 day ema. This put those stocks this coming week trading above 8 day ema at least. Its possible that it can rest here for a couple of days as well.
SOX, SMH needs to hold hereTheres a saying that SEMIs lead the market. $SMH finally broke an upper band trendline that took alot of work to do because of very little volume. Its tired and wants to rest. This is an important test but bids need to come back. Will June be the month when buyers pile back in? My gut tells me we hit 252 this week then break down again or at least stay above the band. Stocks that had great earnings but got slaughtered will do well. $SMH will be range bound till July earnings.
SMH is getting ready for a rallyFor me both tech QQQ and Semiconductors SMH are forming bottom. Any dip would be a good buying opportunity in my opinion.
AMD will not disappoint, 93.75 TGTAs I previously mentioned on my SQ analysis, Semis have been hit hard regardless of great earnings. With semis currently oversold, I see semis run up for the next two weeks along with the likes of AMAT, TSM, QCOM, NVDA, ON, and IIVI. AMD beat earnings and has been taking INTC customers for the past 2 years. INTC is in panic mode trying to regain back their market share. AMD server/pc chips are faster and much reliable and cheaper. Semi shortages is an issue but with current earnings handily beat expectations, I don't see this as an issue moving forward as demand outweighs shortages. See EBAY, StockX, and FB markets for GPUs and CPUs. People still buy them at over 200% retail. China, Taiwan, US coming out of Covid pandemic, ramps up chip production in Q2. A bullish Doji on Friday with good volume. Shorts will get squeezed out at 83.52.
SQ classic ABCD pattern with strong earnings will test 275 againSQ has been hammered along with the rest of tech/semi/fintech for the past 2 weeks. With IWM classic bounce off upward trend line with volume and SOXX reversal due to oversold conditions, I can see tech and semi bounce this week for a bull run back to highs. Energy money will flow back to tech while it rests due to overbought conditions and job numbers being abysmal this past Friday. Be cautious of Dow and S&P, it needs to rest but not get sold to maintain uptrend.
$SMH Tests Trendline Support as Chip Demand BoomsSMH is at an interesting juncture. The world will be defined by chips. Demand is soaring. Supply will eventually catch up. This pattern is typically part of a continuation in a trend. But it needs to continue to hold the trend to capitalize on the A-T breakout to come.
