SMH: Not Smart to Long Semiconductor Index Right NowIt is not a smart decision to open long positions in the semiconductor sector right now (TSM, NVDA, ASML, INTC, AAMT, AMD... etc).
As the chart show, the overall performance on SMH is still on the downside trend, blocked by the resistance line on the necklace of the head-shoulder pattern.
But it doesn't mean that it is time to short the semiconductor sector, it is better to stay neutral and see if we have the chance to buy the cheap chip in around 200 USD.
If the market wouldn't give us the chance to buy in deep, then we can try to create the new positions again when SMH breaks through the resistance and goes with a new uptrend.
SMH
STX Insider Selling of $86 Million Coupled with Potential H&S Insider selling of $86 Million final three days of December.
I anticipate an attempt at regaining $63 on Monday by this one and this is where I plan to initiate a short position by using February or March Puts.
Disclaimer: Not trading advice.
STX
AMD priming Basing here nicely as long as it holds above 74 it remains bull bias. Weekly view here needs close over 86. AMD just released its new GPU's which look promising and can compete against $nvda new RTX 3000's series GPU's. I will be curious to see if they can have adequate supply for the demand, something $nvda has failed at with its new GPU's. 88.71 94.28(ATH) are my next areas of interest must hold above 74.
Teradyne - Cup & Handle + Measured MoveTeradyne made a cup & handle, which continues to see strength.
Cup & Handle -- Measured Move
Making a measured move from the floor of the cup, to the resistance which was all time highs, we get a 18 points (12% aprox.) potential move.
Trade
Would follow the 5sma (green line) to take profits for 50% of my position, the other 50% if it takes the Resistance 1 level.
There are also other semiconductors making ATH, which is adding to the strength in the industry overall.
SMH Existing Long Position (Wave 5 Bullish)Updates on existing Long position on SMH from last week that have moved in the money. SMH is unfolding into wave 5 that could reach 190-195. The key is to stretch existing profits on SMH with the daily chart that shows SMH terminal wave 5 rally is in progress.
SMH Existing Long Position (Wave 5 Bullish)Updates on existing Long position on SMH from last week that have moved in the money. SMH is unfolding into wave 5 that could reach 190-195. The key is to stretch existing profits on SMH with the daily chart that shows SMH terminal wave 5 rally is in progress.
Breakdown of Semiconductors Simple view of this critical sector breaking through key technical trendlines.
Our first bearish sign was the break earlier in August, which held, and rallied back above the original broken trendline. That quickly stopped as momentum ran out, and it's now breaking through multiple trendlines with bulls at max long. This can potentially fall significantly given the overweight bullish positioning and the stretched overbought price.
$ATOM Breaking out $ATOM forming a rounding bottom with a handle/pennant at the top as it retests 52 week highs. Very bullish this stock long term as it has speculative technology in semiconductors that could really boost top line of this small company. You can see after recent ER real volume came into the stock. I love that action and am looking for continuation. Stay long stock here, options spread is too wide for me.