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SMH - 4Day Semi Outter Space View - Semi's Show WeeknessSemi Outter Space View (Get it...semi :) LOL Not Ready Yet - I'm waiting for $140+ to buy Puts - Update coming at SMH $140 SMH Semiconductor ETF is referred to as a leading indicator at times as it shows slowing of high growth tech aspects of the economy. The SMH ETF has companies which make chips for AAPL, and AAPL is a component of SPY. So these tickers are connected in this way. Can you see the repeating pattern? I see we have ascending wedge, followed by breakdown correction. Then steady increase into flat bottom wedge, breakout into another ascending wedge. Ascending wedge breakdown (small white one), into final blue ascending wedge. We are currently at end of pattern. Middle of January 2020 there is no more room. To me this implies we are going to see a correction by then or before. We have a "good pattern" for all wedges in chart. Rising Wedge - "Breaks downward 60% of time. Price should touch (at a minor high or minor low) each trendline at least five times to outline a good pattern. That's 3 touches of one trendline and 2 of the opposite." thepatternsite.com If we were in a downtrend, with ascending wedge, it could be a bullish reversal. In an uptrend, an ascending wedge is like an airplane stalling. No more lift going straight up equals falling outta the air. I do not have any active position in SMH. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
SShort
by MoneyPatterns
THE WEEK AHEAD: ANF, BBY EARNINGS; XOP, EWZ, GDX, SMHIt's a short market week here, but this is what we've got ... . EARNINGS: HPE (43/33): Announces Monday after market close. ANF (85/80): Announces Tuesday before market open. BBY (70/42): Announces Tuesday before market open. HPQ (50/36): Announces Tuesday after market close DE (34/29): Announces Wednesday before market open. Of these, ANF and BBY appear most appealing from a volatility contract standpoint. The setup pictured here is an ANF 16 short straddle in the December 20th month, paying 2.87 (.72 at 25% max) versus 15.93 spot (18.0%), with the defined risk 11/16/16/21 iron fly paying 2.60 with a buying power effect of 2.40 (.65 at 25% max). The BBY December 20th 65/80 short strangle is paying 1.75 (.88 at 50% max), with the correspondent 60/65/80/85 iron condor in the same cycle paying 1.60 (.80 at 50% max). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: TLT (36/12) SLV (29/20) GLD (23/11) USO (21/33) XLE (19/20) As with last week, short duration premium selling remains less than ideal here, so either hand sit, keeping powder dry, or look to deploy in longer duration setups. Here's what's on my list for longer duration setups in which at background implied volatility is higher: XOP: January, where the at-the-money short straddle is paying 2.20 versus 21.05 spot (10.5%) EWZ: March, where the at-the-money short straddle is paying 5.12 versus 43.16 spot (11.9%) GDX: March, where the at-the-money short straddle is paying 3.14 versus 26.76 spot (11.7%) SMH: May, where the at-the-money short straddle is paying 17.95 versus 130.92 spot (13.7%) BROAD MARKET: SPY 10/13 IWM (7/16) QQQ (7/16) As with the exchange-traded funds, you're looking at either hand sitting on shorter duration setups or going out farther in time to get paid, with the expiries in which the at-the-money short straddle is paying greater than 10% in September for SPY and June for both IWM and QQQ (ugh). FUTURES: /6B (67/12) /NG (41/60) /6C (30/5) /SI (29/18) /GC (23/11) Cable I get, but what's with the Loonie? VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: With the January, February, and March contracts trading at 16.68, 17.76, and 18.05 respectively as of Friday close, VIX term structure trades in those expiries remain viable. For all other short volatility trades, I'd wait for a VIX pop above 20 to consider starting to add short position, as well as consider taking off some risk if we see another drop back into the 2019 lows at 12. It finished Friday at 12.34 ... .
NYSE:ANF
by NaughtyPines
SMH - Ready to Fail - Waiting for Short EntrySMH is following the trend with SPY, GOOGL, and AAPL. All are topped out, 70 RSI or higher, highly correlated, and susceptible to trade news. AAPL, GOOGL, and SMH all have plenty of gaps to fill below. I do not think some of the lower ones get filled. However, most gaps do get filled eventually given time. In my opinion, we are just waiting for a catalyst for knock all these stocks down. SPY is highly composed of AAPL and GOOGL. SMH normally acts as a leading indictor, but SPY is more inflated than SMH. This leads me to believe that we are on schedule for a pullback by December 1st or before. I am waiting for a short position to enter. I will be using a standard Put. About $250 or less risk, for $1400 reward if we pullback to $120 for SMH. Once we get closer I will update chart. Please do your own research and evaluate your own risk. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
SShort
by MoneyPatterns
SMH - To Go Short or Go Long? You DecideI'd like everyone's input. Kind of like a forum if we could. Explain what your seeing from your perspectives and back it up with technical info, etc. I'm currently short the SMH with some 11/22 $129 puts, but I'm considering only holding half of them through $NVDA earnings tonight. I personally don't think they'll outperform...especially since they've had an incredible run in the past month. This is why I'm leaning bearish on SMH and the market as a whole. GLTA. What's your perspective?
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by StockPickingEnthusiast
SMH - Shaking my head?The primary pattern is definitely bullish going back to the December lows. Since the selloff in May, each pullback in the SMH does not reach the support trendline. Unfortunately, prices have created a new high creating a bearish divergence with the RSI indicator. The dashed purple line shows an intermediate trendline since the price has found strength on the pullbacks. A break of this intermediate line around $120 could lead to additional weakness bringing the price back to the primary trendline around $113. Semiconductors have been the second strongest tech industry YTD behind only Hardware but they have been slipping over the last six months. Performance weakness may continue.
SShort
by Chartimistic
THE WEEK AHEAD: ORCL, GDXJ, TBT, TLT, SMH, OIHEARNINGS ORCL (50/29) releases earnings on Wednesday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's New York session. Pictured here is a non-standard short strangle, with the short call side doubled up in order to compensate for greater than one dollar wide strikes: 1.30 credit, break evens at 48.70/58.15, and delta/theta of -5.52/58.15. As of Friday close, the June 21st to July 19th monthly volatility contraction is from 46.6% to 29.3% or about 29.7%. Look to manage intratrade by rolling the untested side toward current price on approaching worthless with a 50% max take profit target. Generally, I don't play stuff this small that doesn't have dollar wides, since rolling intratrade can be a headache, as can rolling out, since there is limited strike availability. It's really another aspect of liquidity, which is not only about the width of markets intraexpiry, but also about the availability of expiries out in time, as well as strikes. BROAD MARKET EEM (27/20) QQQ (23/20); NDX (24/20) IWM (23/19); RUT (25/19) SPY (21/15); SPX (19/15) EFA (16/13) With 33 days to go in the July cycle and 61 to go for August, we're kind of in the "in between" for the 45 days 'til expiry sweet spot, so I would wait until August comes closer into view for either broad market or sector if you want to keep things in that 45 days 'til expiry wheelhouse. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (62/31), TBT (52/24), TLT (51/12), SMH (50/31), OIH (49/40). SINGLE NAME WITH EARNINGS IN THE REAR VIEW A lot of earnings start kicking off in the July cycle, so would wait to play these as earnings announcement volatility contraction plays instead of wading in here and getting caught in a volatility expansion. ME PERSONALLY To keep things simple, mundane, and boring throughout the summer months, I'm looking to just to play broad market for the next couple of cycles -- SPY/SPX, QQQ/NDX, and IWM/RUT. (See, e.g., RUT Sept Iron Condor below).
NYSE:ORCL
by NaughtyPines
2
OPENING: SMH JUNE 21ST 107/110/126/129 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.09/contract credit. Another premium selling play, small, defined in the semicon exchange-traded fund with implied volatility at nearly twice that of the broad market ... . Collecting slightly greater than one-third the width of the wings. Will look to take profit at 50% max. The naked 110/126 short strangle in the June cycle is currently paying 2.78. Metrics: Max Profit: $109/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $191 Break Evens: 108.91/127.09 Delta/Theta: -2.39/1.19
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by NaughtyPines