Short NVDA for a little +33%...This trade is purely psychological revenge...
Long AAPL and TSLA, short NVDA haha
NVIDIA's (NVDA) Stock Expected to Plummet to $82 Post Q2 Earnings
1. Overestimated AI Chip Demand
2. Data Center Growth Slowing Down
3. Vulnerabilities in the Gaming Sector
5. Product Innovation Fatigue
6. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
SMH
SMH rallies to new highs with room to goSMH rallied to new highs today and into higher trading area which originally appeared to be very overbought
1 hour interval shows both 10 and 20 RSI levels in overbought territory
2 hour interval shows 20 RSI having more room to grow.
initially exited riskiest positions figuring on this new high being way outside the bounds of normal
This is now looking to have some more room left in it.
expect a small pullback or pullback in time over the next day or two.
SMH held its ground above key support levelToday was an important day for semi conductors. In order to solidify a bullish pivot it needed to remain above a key support level.
SMH held above key support
lack luster moves across the market indicated indecision and caution amongst traders about the future being bullish or bearish
This could mark the sign of a turn around to the upside longer term
considering the recent rally and today's modest moves, this could be the distribution phase of the rally cycle which would mark a small pullback in the coming days
Intel Corporation (INTC) Stock: A Investment Opportunity ?Intel Corporation's recent earnings report has raised some concerns, but there are several reasons to remain optimistic about INTC stock.
Despite a challenging Q2, Intel is strategically shifting production to its high-volume plant in Ireland, positioning itself for long-term gains.
The company's focus on cutting-edge chip manufacturing and AI advancements highlights its commitment to innovation.
Moreover, Intel's diverse portfolio, including the promising Gaudi AI products, provides a solid foundation for future growth.
With strategic cost-cutting measures and a strong financial position, Intel is poised to rebound and deliver value to its investors.
Opening (IRA): SMH Sept 20th 199 Covered Call... for a 192.24 debit.
Comments: (High IVR/IV at 108.2/47.6). Buying stock and selling -75 calls against to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out the short call for duration and credit on test.
SMH tests major resistance lineSMH approaches major resistance line after flash crash a few days ago
SMH rallies to major resistance line
20 RSI remains below 50 which is a bearish sign that the recent rally is running out
shorter timeframes show a dramatic drop in volume during the rally which is another bearish indicator
August and September are historically bad months for the stock market
I am expecting SMH to test the resistance line, possibly breakthrough then pull back before continues selling.
Not putting on any trades, waiting for confirmation.
SMH | SHORTNASDAQ:SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) Weekly Analysis:
Current Price Action:
SMH is trading at $218.43, down 9.10% for the week.
Price has breached the upward trendline support, indicating potential further downside.
Key Levels:
Bearish Line: $214.18
Target Price 1: $199.15
Target Price 2: $172.35
Target Price 3: $155.65
Target Price 4: $136.10
Support Zones:
Immediate support is expected around $199.15.
Further support levels are $172.35, $155.65, and $136.10.
Resistance Levels:
Resistance is at the broken trendline near $240, followed by the recent high around $300.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
RSI is at 53.98, trending downwards, suggesting weakening momentum.
Volume:
Volume is significant at 75.462M, indicating strong selling pressure.
Conclusion:
SMH's breakdown below key support levels and significant bearish momentum suggest further downside potential. Watch for reactions around $199.15 and $172.35 for potential entry points or further declines.
SMH breaks though support on increasing volumeSMH opened up selling off and continued to sell off through multiple periods.
Broke through support
Continued selling through multiple periods
Increasing volume while selling
Broke current upward trend its been on since May
Expect to see more selling to come
$INTC has its biggest run in a long timeNASDAQ:INTC has hit the 1st level.
We are being strategic and locking in some gains. We are over 10% profit mark in a few days & Intel is above the gap fill area, which was the 1st tranche of selling.
Still have a good sized position and wrote covered calls on 1/4 of the position.
NASDAQ:SMH NASDAQ:SOX
$INTC trade looking goodBuilt a larger than normal position on #Intel.
NASDAQ:INTC
The sell areas are highlighted by the yellow circles.
1st tranche around 34.5.
2nd tranche around 43.5.
3rd tranche around 49.
There will be a trailer left for a longer term hold/ This is with the hope that there is a turnaround in the company.
The last gap fill is in the low 60's.
NASDAQ:SMH
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Opening (IRA): SMH 2 x July 19th 210/215 Short Put Vertical... for a 1.00 in credit.
Comments: Part two of delta adjustment trade ... .
Instead of rolling up the 205/215 short put vertical, I closed it out (See Post Below), and then re-erected a 2 x 5 to delta balance against my call side, whose short leg is at the -32 delta strike.
This doesn't increase buying power effect, since the 2 x 5 is equivalent to the 1 x 10 on the call side.
The end result is a 2 x 210/2 x 215/255/265 iron condor, -5.79/3.42 delta/theta on which I've netted 3.36 in credits.
Closing (IRA): SMH 205/215 Short Put Vertical... for a .87 debit.
Comments: First part of an adjustment trade. Instead of rolling the short put vertical aspect of my 205/215/255/265 up to delta balance, I'm closing it out.
Then, I'll re-erect a 2 x 5 (the equivalent of a 10-wide) to delta balance against the call side, whose short leg is at the 32 delta.
Closed (IRA): SMH July 19th 189/199/275/285 Iron Condor... for a 1.17 debit.
Comments: Mixing and matching profitable put wing with profitable call wing from iron condors put on at different times (See Posts Below) to de-risk running into NVDA earnings on 5/22. (NVDA is around 21% of SMH holdings).
The resulting setup is a July 19th 205/215/255/265 on which I've collected a net 3.23 in credits; delta/theta -.28/3.45.
I'll look at doing a delta adjustment post-earnings if necessary.
Opening (IRA): SMH July 19th 205/215/275/285 IC... for a 2.17 credit.
Comments: An additive delta adjustment to the current SMH IC I have on. (See Post Below).
With the original setup's short call aspect converging on -25 delta and the short put converging on +10, selling a skewed IC with the oppositionally delta'd short call/short put (i.e., at the +25 short put and the -10 delta short call) to bring back the position back to net delta flat with 63 days until expiry.
4.40 total credits collected with a current delta/theta of 1.02/5.81.