Semiconductors vs. Nasdaq: Key Indicator of Tech MomentumIntroduction:
The ratio between semiconductors NASDAQ:SMH and the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:QQQ serves as a key indicator of tech sector momentum and near-term risk sentiment. When SMH outperforms QQQ, it signals a "risk-on" environment, reflecting strong demand for semiconductors and overall tech sector health. Conversely, if QQQ outperforms SMH, it suggests a "risk-off" environment, pointing to concerns over weakening chip demand.
Analysis:
Risk Sentiment: The SMH-to-QQQ ratio provides insights into tech momentum. A higher SMH performance often indicates robust chip demand, a positive signal for the broader tech sector. On the other hand, when QQQ outperforms, it signals caution, possibly reflecting waning demand for semiconductors.
Bullish Outlook: Recently, the SMH-to-QQQ ratio has formed a higher low, reinforcing a bullish outlook for semiconductors. This higher low is a positive sign not just for the semiconductor industry but for the broader market as well, as semiconductors often lead market rallies.
Conclusion:
The recent bullish signal in the SMH-to-QQQ ratio suggests tech sector strength, with semiconductors likely leading the way. This is a critical metric for assessing near-term market momentum, so traders should keep a close eye on this ratio to gauge potential shifts in sentiment. What’s your take on this trend? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SMH-to-QQQ ratio and the higher low formation)
#Semiconductors #Nasdaq #TechSector #SMH #QQQ #RiskOn
SMH
Bearish Reversal in VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)The NASDAQ:SMH ETF shows a significant price decline, with a recent drop of 5.40%, as highlighted by the red bar. This price action suggests a bearish reversal after hitting a high of 283.07. The current support level is around 200.49, marking an 18.88% drop from the recent high. Additionally, the Darvas Box indicates a range between 247.16 and 283.07, suggesting potential consolidation in this area before the next directional move. The downward trend aligns with overall market corrections in the semiconductor sector, which could present a short opportunity if price breaks below key support levels. Traders should keep an eye on macroeconomic factors influencing this sector, as well as earnings reports that might impact semiconductor stocks. NASDAQ:ASML
Opening (IRA): SMH Nov 15th 190/215/280/305 Iron Condor... for a 4.13 credit.
Comments: IV remains "adequate" here at 39.1%. Selling the 16 delta short options and buying the wings 1/10th of the price of the underlying out from there ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 20.87
Max Profit: 4.13
ROC at Max: 19.79%
50% Max: 2.07
ROC at 50% Max: 9.90%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll up untested side on side test.
Semis may be ready to surge.NASDAQ:NVDA has reclaimed most daily supply and may trade into the earnings high if it can reclaim this week's range. NASDAQ:SMH has similarly reclaimed the daily 50 SMA and will go higher upon confirmation of the daily 100 SMA supply. Higher prices in semiconductors, such NASDAQ:AVGO as well, may help NASDAQ:QQQ follow AMEX:SPY to a new all-time high.
SMH maybe forming an island gap reversalSMH lately broke above its downward trend that looked promising as a turning from this long ward slide we have been in. Selling may not be over yet
After gapping up into more bullish territory it held for a day, stock gapped back down again
Forming an island gap
We could see the stock come back down into its original trading territory
SPY is currently trading very high at the moment. As SPY contracts we should also see SMH falling as well.
$AMD in “W” Formation?NASDAQ:AMD looks to be developing a “W” formation, similar to a double bottom. There are quite a few of these formations on charts especially in the “Semis.”
AMD stands out to me and looks to have a measured move from the breakout point (top of middle of “W” measured an equal move higher, see chart). The breakout looks to me to be $157.82 for a possible entry. I have an alert set early at $155.25 so I can evaluate an earlier entry. All TBD.
The target price looks to be very close to the previous high or about an 18% move. Again, all TBD.
If I take this trade, I will update the post. Note, this is “looking” like a setup to me, it is not yet a trade. Thanks for looking.
Is NVDA the catalyst for the market?NVDA just had a bearish crossover of the 20 & 50 MA (Daily chart)
Last time we saw this bearish moving average formation was in early August.
NVDA proceeded to fall sharply in the coming days.
All eyes on the market leader. All eyes on the QQQ.
Will the Q’s be the demise of SPY?
If Nvidia sees anymore weakness you can be sure it will have other semis following suit.
Risk to reward in the near term is clear.
SMH fails to break through resistanceSMH rallied to key resistance and failed to break through. Gapped down next trading day. Looking to make another attempt at the resistance.
SMH gapped down with volume after failing to break through
started to recover as smart money took over in later day trading
RSI is now below its SMA smoothing line
If this pattern holds trying to break through we may not see selling off with volume until we reach trend support
SMH now testing outer boundariesSMH experienced a significant rally and now showing signs of weakness and a potential reversal coming.
experienced a short lived false breakout back in Aug 22
We are now back in breakout zone again this time with more candles indicating more bulls coming in than last breakout
RSI is now trending flat as price continues to rise, signs of rsi divergence signaling reversal maybe coming
Overall SMH looks to be showing weakness in the rally and most likely turning around to sell off soon.
SMH tests major resistance levelSMH has rallied nicely the past 2 days and now reached major downward resistance level again. This is a crucial area for SMH to break in order for more rallying to continue
Resistance defined well during late August
ETF now presses up against resistance again
Volume declines as resistance is reached.
Overall I am expecting a reversal to start forming around here. Figure on SMH testing the level before retracting back down to lower levels again.
SMH forming a long downward trendSMH failed to make new highs after the last rally and now forming downward trend
At the peak of July 10 we have seen a continued decline in SMH overall
Latest rally peaked in August 21 coming in much lower than July 10
As SMH gradually sold off it also helped form a strong resistance line painting a long term grim picture
We are in late cycle investing at the moment. This is helping solidify that the longer term risk assets have begun
SMH is looking like the leader in the tech sell off so far. Recommend preparing your portfolio by rotating out of risk assets over to more defense ETFs
Is SMCI a buy? SMCI has lagged NVDA and many other semis.
Were now approaching a critical area...its make or break!
positive Daily divergence provides some hopes that were close to a near term bounce however after today semiconductor selloff the whole complex was shattered.
The fact that SMCI remained green while NVDA was down 10% should be a small win in itself...
The question is can it hold and build on this?
I do think its better positioned for a long than most semis.
No confirmed technical breakdown has occurred yet
AVGO may confirm the daily 10 SMA this week.NASDAQ:AVGO is on watch to confirm the daily 10 SMA ahead of its earnings this week, which are on Thursday at 4:15 PM EDT. Many names in the NASDAQ:NDX are heading into this week just below the daily 10 SMA, including NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA and the semiconductor ETF NASDAQ:SMH
If these names are able to build above Friday's high, they have space to trade up to the next daily supply.
SMH shows signs of bullish turn aroundSMH experiences a false breakout and tries to sustain it for a few periods with increased volume
SMH experiences first false breakout above
Tries to hold higher levels outside resistance
Increased volume is accompanied with this breakout
This gives a signal that bear drawdown has weakness in it and bulls maybe taking over soon.
SMH throws mixed signals compared to QQQSMH indicators, EMA crossover, and stock throws mixed signals
EMA remains below its SMA line
RSI breaks slightly above its SMA
stock price remains firmly inside lower resistance line
SMH is rather prone to false breakouts. So the RSI breakout above could be a fake out for sure. Prefer to wait for extra confirmation of new direction with SMH before making trades on it.
SMH is overall giving more bearish direction than bullish.
SMCI broke the daily consolidation.NASDAQ:SMCI broke the tight daily consolidation to the downside today, confirming a short entry at $600 after losing daily demand. I will keep it on watch tomorrow with any weakness in NASDAQ:SMH and NASDAQ:QQQ for a potential continuation play down to the next daily demand.
SMH closes lower on Monday tradingSMH starts showing direction as to where it is going... down.
3 separate points paint a clear downward resistance trend line
rejected hammer candle gave way for more selling
RSI still continues to trend down on multiple timeframes
SMH is starting to show signs of downward trend forming
Putting on a small put position to close in mid October. May expand on position if trend continues.
SMH shows signs of weakness for first time SMH rally is showing weakness in multiple places for first time.
EMA crosses below SMA for first time since rally started
RSI shows signs of price divergence by trending down while price makes higher highs.
This is more cautionary at this point and keep in mind. I wouldn't add to any bullish positions but instead tighten stop losses and seek to start taking some profits.
Short NVDA for a little +33%...This trade is purely psychological revenge...
Long AAPL and TSLA, short NVDA haha
NVIDIA's (NVDA) Stock Expected to Plummet to $82 Post Q2 Earnings
1. Overestimated AI Chip Demand
2. Data Center Growth Slowing Down
3. Vulnerabilities in the Gaming Sector
5. Product Innovation Fatigue
6. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
SMH rallies to new highs with room to goSMH rallied to new highs today and into higher trading area which originally appeared to be very overbought
1 hour interval shows both 10 and 20 RSI levels in overbought territory
2 hour interval shows 20 RSI having more room to grow.
initially exited riskiest positions figuring on this new high being way outside the bounds of normal
This is now looking to have some more room left in it.
expect a small pullback or pullback in time over the next day or two.
SMH held its ground above key support levelToday was an important day for semi conductors. In order to solidify a bullish pivot it needed to remain above a key support level.
SMH held above key support
lack luster moves across the market indicated indecision and caution amongst traders about the future being bullish or bearish
This could mark the sign of a turn around to the upside longer term
considering the recent rally and today's modest moves, this could be the distribution phase of the rally cycle which would mark a small pullback in the coming days
Intel Corporation (INTC) Stock: A Investment Opportunity ?Intel Corporation's recent earnings report has raised some concerns, but there are several reasons to remain optimistic about INTC stock.
Despite a challenging Q2, Intel is strategically shifting production to its high-volume plant in Ireland, positioning itself for long-term gains.
The company's focus on cutting-edge chip manufacturing and AI advancements highlights its commitment to innovation.
Moreover, Intel's diverse portfolio, including the promising Gaudi AI products, provides a solid foundation for future growth.
With strategic cost-cutting measures and a strong financial position, Intel is poised to rebound and deliver value to its investors.