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SMH

Opening (IRA): SMH 2 x July 19th 210/215 Short Put Vertical... for a 1.00 in credit. Comments: Part two of delta adjustment trade ... . Instead of rolling up the 205/215 short put vertical, I closed it out (See Post Below), and then re-erected a 2 x 5 to delta balance against my call side, whose short leg is at the -32 delta strike. This doesn't increase buying power effect, since the 2 x 5 is equivalent to the 1 x 10 on the call side. The end result is a 2 x 210/2 x 215/255/265 iron condor, -5.79/3.42 delta/theta on which I've netted 3.36 in credits.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines
Closed (IRA): SMH July 19th 189/199/275/285 Iron Condor... for a 1.17 debit. Comments: Mixing and matching profitable put wing with profitable call wing from iron condors put on at different times (See Posts Below) to de-risk running into NVDA earnings on 5/22. (NVDA is around 21% of SMH holdings). The resulting setup is a July 19th 205/215/255/265 on which I've collected a net 3.23 in credits; delta/theta -.28/3.45. I'll look at doing a delta adjustment post-earnings if necessary.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SMH July 19th 205/215/275/285 IC... for a 2.17 credit. Comments: An additive delta adjustment to the current SMH IC I have on. (See Post Below). With the original setup's short call aspect converging on -25 delta and the short put converging on +10, selling a skewed IC with the oppositionally delta'd short call/short put (i.e., at the +25 short put and the -10 delta short call) to bring back the position back to net delta flat with 63 days until expiry. 4.40 total credits collected with a current delta/theta of 1.02/5.81.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SMH July 19th 189/199/255/265 Iron Condor... for a 2.23 credit. Comments: A small engagement trade in the semiconductor ETF (31.5% 30-Day IV). Going somewhat wide here with the deltas, with the short option legs camped out at 16 delta on both sides. I generally like to collect one-third the width of the wings in credit for these, but am going a little more long-dated than usual, so want to give it a smidge more room to be wrong. The assumption here is neutral, with the bet being that it slops around between my short option strikes. I'll generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or adjust sides on approaching worthless or on side test. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 7.77 Max Profit: 2.23 ROC at Max: 28.70% ROC at 50% Max: 14.35% Delta/Theta: .37/3.01
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
Opened (IRA): SMH May 17th 198 Monied Covered Call... for a 192.24 debit. Comments: Opened this in late Friday's session as it floated to the top of my IV screener with IVR/IV at 106/39. Sold the -75 delta call against 100 delta of long stock, with a resulting cost basis of 192.24/share. This is to emulate a 25 delta short put and to take advantage of call side IV skew while having "built-in" position defense via the short call. Will look to add at intervals, assuming IVR/IV remains high, generally taking profit at 50% max and defending via roll out of the short call. Metrics: BPE/Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares: 192.24 Max Profit: 5.76 ($576) ROC at Max: 3.00% ROC at 50% Max: 1.50% Variants: Short Put: May 19th 200 Short Put, 4.65 at the mid, 195.35 (cash secured), 25.70 (on margin). 2.38% ROC at max, 1.19% at 50% max for cash secured; 18.09% ROC at max, 9.05% at 50% max on margin (which is why you stick with the short put on margin; it's more BP efficient). Synthetic Short Put: May 19th 110/200 Short Put Vertical, 4.50 at the mid, 85.50 (cash secured), paying .15 to bring in BPE by more than half, 5.26 ROC at max, 2.63% at 50% max. This would only make sense in a cash secured environment from a BP efficiency standpoint; the naked short put remains more BP efficient on margin than either the covered call or the "synthetic naked short put" spread. Standard Short Put Vertical: May 19th 190/200 Short Put Vertical, 2.03 at the mid on BPE of 7.97 (both cash secured and on margin), 25.57% ROC at Max; 12.74% ROC at 50% max.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
SMH breaks above its updward, reversal likelySMH has gone on a wonderful tear the last year and has recently showing signs that it is way overbought and due for a correction. From a 1W period we see that SMH has broken above year long upward trend. This is a first for SMH to do over the last year The ETF has gone through some notable contractions like from Aug - Oct of 2023. This occured without breaking above the trend. RSI 20 is now also for the first time showing that it has reached above 70 in over a year. We should expect a decent contraction or elongated pull back in time to correct fore this over purchasing it went through. Tighten your stop losses to protect against downside risk.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by ratchet-mint
Semiconductor Pullback Imminent?The semiconductor index has been one of the best performing areas of the market over the last few quaters, and has continued to be strong since the late October bottom. The index is coming into overhead fibonacci resistance, and with weakening momentum starting to show up, similar to July last year, a pullback here looks likely. It seems hard to imagine with all of the AI lead optimism, but this sector could see some retrace back to the 3100s to reset sentiment. If the indicated resistance region is broken, the next likely targets are substantially higher. Will be monitoring for a reversal pattern to emerge and confirm the time has come to exit longs and consider a short trade.
TVC:SOXShort
by CycleTargets
Opened: SMH March 15th 169/175/199/205 Iron Condor... for a 2.07 credit. Comments: 30-day IV at 27.8%. (Higher would be better, but you can't have everything). Collecting 1/3rd of the width of the wings in credit. 2.07 credit on BPE of 3.93; 52.7% ROC at max; 26.3% at 50% max. As usual, will generally look to take profit at 50% max; adjust sides on side test. This is probably my last trade in the March monthly, since 45 DTE is kind of the wheelhouse for this stuff, and the March monthly is at 43 DTE. I'll mostly hand sit from here until month end, with most of the trades being adjustments.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines
2
Opening (IRA): SMH March 15th 176 Monied Covered Call... for a 172.42 debit. Comments: While I'm waiting for a July contract to open up in broad market instruments (IWM, QQQ, SPY), shopping around the ETF space for premium. Relative to broad market, SMH IV isn't horrible (the 30-day is currently at 29.3%). Selling the -75 delta call against long stock, to emulate a 25 delta short put and to take advantage of call IV skew (32.9% on the call side; 27.2% on the put). 3.58 max on BPE of 172.42; 2.08% at max; 1.04% at 50% max. Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out the short call to reduce cost basis further if it doesn't get there.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
TESLA & SMCI: the tail of Semis vs EV stocks.Tesla has had a beautiful bounce off support. This bounce comes on the back of a strong market, charging higher. If Tesla can hold above $195 it may move for the gap fill. Caution to the wind with Tesla as it has triggered a very bearish breakdown. SMCI is one of the best performing Semis. Its gone completely parabolic on its earnings. after gapping up 30% on its pre guide, its now up another 10% in the afterhours. The semis seem to have an unlimited amount of capital flowing into them. Look for an intra day short opportunity (day trade) on SMCI
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Trading-Capital