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SMH

The place on a chart where the bulls come out to party - AND WHYThe SMH is the semi conductor exchange traded fund (EFT). This chart is a perfect example of the place where traders can generally count on a bull bear battle. When price is falling, the human nature tendency is to think what's happening now will continue to happen in the near term. All charts act and react the same way. In fact, Mrs. Market is simply running a test of an important area where it will be "show time" for a bull bear battle... This example is a "breakup candle low" which is an important spot on all charts, all time frames where a test is normal as is a bounce, at least for a trade, or more... This and many other concepts are discussed InsideTheNumbers LIVE and our nightly common sense market analysis videos on YouTube
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by mktforecast
The Day Ahead: Premium Selling in IWM, QQQ, FXI, GDXJ, SMHIt's Fryyyydayyyy ... (which is when I tend to do all my "stuff"). Well, unless you've been hiding under a rock (no judgment here), you'll know that premium-selling in broad market isn't very good here, with IWM IVR/IV at 12.3/19.7%, QQQ at 9.1/20.1%, and SPY at 6.8/14.4%. That sub-25 IVR is telling you that broad market IV is in the bottom quarter of its 52-week range which for premium-sellers is kind of drag. Your premium-selling options in this environment (at least from a premium selling perspective) are to (a) do nothing; (b) sell your go-to delta and duration for whatever the market is paying, knowing that you might get assigned at the strike or have a poo pile to manage toward expiry; or (c) go longer-dated to get paid something decent with the probability of profit (POP) and or probability of touch (POT) that you're used to. Since I'm trying to create cash flow here (at least in the retirement account), I generally opt for (c), since I'm not fond of cleaning up poo piles with a great deal of frequency and like high POP/low POT. With that goal in mind, I generally target the shortest duration <16 delta strike that is paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Currently, the shortest duration <16 delta strike paying that in IWM is the December 15th 164 (14 delta, bid 1.65); in QQQ, the December 15th 325 (14 delta, bid 3.26); and in SPY, the Jan 19th 400 (16 delta, bid 4.24), so I'll look to add short put rungs in those durations or greater. Because broad market sucks so hard though, I'll also be venturing out into the exchange-traded fund space to see if I can scrounge up any premium there. Currently, FXI (IVR 11.3/30.8%), GDXJ (7.6/30.3%), and SMH (17.6/28.7%) are at the top of my screener when sorted for 30-day IV, but you can see that IV is also at the low end of the 52 week range in that space, too. The ideal is to sell in both high IVR/high IV with IVR >50/IV>35% for ETF's, but there is nothing currently in the space with those metrics, so -- as with broad market -- you're options are the same: (a) do nothing; (b) sell your go-to delta/duration with the chips falling where they may; or (c) sell longer duration with your go-to POP/POT. Here are the shortest duration <16 strikes paying around 1% of strike price in credit for these underlyings: FXI, Dec 15th 22.85, 13 delta, bid .29 (don't know what the odd ball strike is about). GDXJ, Nov 17th 29, 12 delta, bid .31. SMH, Nov 17th 130, 13 delta, bid 1.35. I would note that there is a highly options-liquid ETF with >50% IV, and it's TQQQ, with an IVR of 17.3 and a 30-day IV of (wait for it) ... 70.5%. It's a leveraged instrument, so I would exercise caution trading it with the expectation that, for example, the 16 delta (the 2 times expected move strike in non-leveraged stuff) is a "safe" strike to sell with limited assignment risk, a high probability of expiring worthless, and/or not being an in-the-money headache toward expiry. As long as you're familiar with all these "warts," it's probably okay to play small. That being said, it won't be particularly buying power efficient on margin; it looks like my broker's requiring that it be cash secured (most underlyings require 20% of the strike price or thereabouts in buying power), so the buying power requirement makes it "less sexy" in spite of its high IV. Lastly, I would be neglectful were I to not mention the single name space for premium-selling here, but my general order of preference in selling premium (particularly in the retirement account) is (a) broad market; (b) exchange-traded funds; and (c) single name (in that order). Here are the top 30-day IV, highly options liquid single name underlyings at the moment that are trading at >$20/share and with a 30-day>50%. There isn't a ton here and (as with everything else), IV is at the low end of its 52-week range (I mean 1.0? c'monnnn, you're killing me here, smalls): AFRM (Tech/Software)), IVR/IV 1.0/75.5% RIVN (Automaker/EV), 5.5/65.5% TSLA (Automaker/EV), 11.3/52.7%
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SMH November 17th 122.5 Short Put... for a 1.34 credit. Comments: Adding a rung out in the November monthly so that my October rung doesn't look so lonely ... . It's actually because SMH 30-day IV is still fairly decent at 31.6%; the only options liquid ETF's with better IV are GDXJ (35.2%) and FXI (32.0%). Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the semiconductor exchange-traded fund.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
SMH Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: when price clears 151.71 Volume: with daily volume greater than 13.30M Target: 167 area Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; 146.62 gets you 3/1 Risk/Reward. This swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by tradepatiently
1
SMH Update (daily chart)SMH recently peaked at 151.71 on May 30, leaving behind two gaps for potential fill in an area of low volume (yellow volume profile highlight). I am expecting a selloff into the gap areas, which also are at key fib levels. 5/30: peak = 151.71 143.89 = 76% fib (Touched today, and 5.2% off peak) 139.05 = 61.8% fib ( 8.3% off peak) 135.14 = 50% fib (10.9% off peak) The volume profile is based on quarter to date activity, March - today, June 5. I do not expect a bounce off today's low, the 61.8 % or 50% fib areas look more realistic to me.
NASDAQ:SMH
by UnknownUnicorn13101
SMH NVDA SPY & QQQ | Long Term Outlook Resistance Guide- SMH weaker than QQQ today potentially setting daily lower high but bears need more follow through at the moment - NVDA still potential 4h head and shoulders pattern if we confirm more downside - SPY very nearing 0.618 fib resistance we saw some money rotate from tech into SPY in the last two days making breath better - QQQ bull flag confirm still super strong every trend is healthy no closed just at the golden pocket resistance. Most likely scenario is weekly consolidation in the next coming weeks.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by ArcadiaTrading
SMH Weekly Update (post split)I'm updating my prior SMH weekly chart, since we had a 2 for 1 split in SMH last week and it totally messed my chart up. Key points (dates are all weekly): 3/27: 131.79 (most recent peak) 4/24: 118.57 ( most recent low) -10.03% off the peak 5/1 close: 124.38 -5.6% off the peak Gann confluence line 1: 121.71 -7.6% off peak Gann confluence line 2: 114.46 -13.1% off peak The green trend lines indicate an apex forming right along the Gann rays (salmon colored lines) suggesting a directional resolution is near. After extending to the purple point D, which is almost a 1.218 Gartley extension, support appears to be holding at the 121.71 Gann Confluence support line. This line is also the top ridge of the Ichimoku cloud which can also serve as support. Should SMH rise off this support, then we would have had a 7.6% correction off the most recent high. Should current support break down, we would see a target of Gann support 2 which is 114.46, or 13.1% off most recent peak. Pros for upside breakout: A possible rate cut currently being predicted by SOFR futures as early as June or July. Banking turmoil could also call for a pause or cut. A reduction in rates would also signal easier monetary conditions which would benefit growth oriented stocks for a near term spike. Pros for a breakdown: Further hawkishness in the FED, combined with Bank Solvency fears. Seasonality: from 2004 to 2023 the SMH has finished the month of June higher only 42% of the time, the worst month in the year. Observation: The 12 month RSI, while positive at 57.16, is declining from a near term double top, and showing some weakness in trend. I would watch for continuing weakness in SMH momentum on the daily chart, as well as the breadth inside the SMH holdings. You can do this with flipcharts on the Barchart.com site. Presently, while I see a few stalwarts, I am also seeing a lot of breakdowns inside the SMH ETF. For example, MCHP, a very well run company with solid financials, just reported good earnings beats, yet it sank below its 200 day MA and has a weak daily RSI(9) of 42.11. Personally, I would not long any semiconductors until late summer and signs of turmoil have resolved.
NASDAQ:SMH
by UnknownUnicorn13101
SMH Semiconductors update (weekly) Key areas to watch Semiconductors finally showing some topping pattern, amidst topping RSI (12) that failed to reach the high 70 channel and a shrinking trend of volume. In effect, weakening momentum. The first level is 244.71, which is a Gann confluence and also a prior pivot (left yellow circle), and is a 7.1% decline off the most recent peak of 263.57. This would take it to the top of the red cloud which could serve as some support. The second level to watch is 229.18 (right yellow circle) , which is another Gann Confluence, and also a prior pivot, which would be 13.04% off the peak of 263.57. This would take SMH well into the cloud, which could create some future resistance. Seasonality is at play, so I would expect a rebound in late summer, although there are many factors which could disrupt any projections any farther out and I do not feel worth making now.
NASDAQ:SMH
by UnknownUnicorn13101