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SMH

KEY TOP WATCH $QQQ Equilibrium Pattern Tomorrow - QQQ equilibrium pattern is going to be key break for which direction market is going the next couple days, - XLF KRE bear break to new lows will break QQQ equilibrium bear and then drag SPY down even more. - Yellen flip flop - no deposit guarantee yesterday to today it will be. (the more they flip flop back and forth the more we see them as less confident) - SOXX / SMH semi sector also helping QQQ with such a strong move up, QQQ bear break will likely mark a temporary top on this sector. need to see NVDA drop too.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ArcadiaTrading
FOMC Price Reaction Analysis, Support & Resistance, $SPY/$QQQ- Looking for a hourly Bear flag on SPY and QQQ after this huge move down. - XLF and KRE top watch to see if we break fear lows/52 week low. Fear would likely come back in if we do break the lows - looking for SOXX/SMH to go from lead bull turning into lead bear - Rate hikes is a head wind more for QQQ then SPY, so after Powell saying no rate cuts this year, we would likely see QQQ lead to the down side as well just like it lead to the upside. - FOMC reaction day after is always the real move, so tomorrow we need to see if bears can follow through or todays just a small reaction move.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ArcadiaTrading
XLK Update (daily chart)XLK is at a key area of resistance at Gann 145.11. It either breaks through this resistance next week to seek the Gartley 1.618 extension near the Gann line (151.77), or it repels downward to form a short term double top. I note that SOX index appears to be at a level of resistance, although it's ETF counterpart SMH appears in the clear above the Ichimoku cloud. I would watch the RSI (9) trend, which took a turn downward on Friday, although I'm discounting that observation a little since Friday was a weird day with options expiration. XLK is worth watching, since it is one of the few S&P sectors that is currently showing strength.
AMEX:XLK
by UnknownUnicorn13101
SMH - It's not as bad as you think.....SMH closed today at 234.30, above the Ichimoku Cloud and well above the downtrend channel set from 2022 high to low (grey shaded area). SMH has clearly broken out of this channel, has successfully retested. I see next low at 232.40, which is a Gann confluence line, and then a move back upwards (point D). The reason I see a bounce is that the RSI is approaching oversold on the daily at the confluence line. Have we broken the bear downtrend? Looks like it to me. In order to resume the bear trend, we would at least need to drop at least to 175 (another Gann Confluence line), which would only take us to approximately the top of the down channel. That would be a 25.6% drop from today's close. If we want to continue the bear trend, then we would need to take out 166.97, the October low, which would be a 28.7% decline from today's close. Is it possible that we drop another 25 - 28% from here? Of course, anything is possible. However, I don't see it as probable, unless there is a BLACK SWAN event, which no one can predict in any event (by definition). I know that many semi companies have laid off employees, and taken their pill. So future earnings reports may exceed expectations, although product demand remains an uncertainty. But I don't see a 25% drop from here in Semis on organics alone.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by UnknownUnicorn13101
Nvidia Sell SignalNvidia just put in a reversal signal on the Daily chart as it hit major resistance. This semiconductor has been a powerhouse mover and has single handily been lifting the Semis sector higher. Now that this stock may show some near term sell pressure we could see the sector as a whole pullback. The only thing that Im being mindful of when it comes to NVDA is that it has yet to report earnings. As a technical analyst I'm a bit dissatisfied that Nvidia came so close to filling the technical daily gap at 230.46 but never managed to fill it which leads me to think there may be a possibility it has 1 more gasp at a rally to fill the gap before rolling over. None the less distribution is being observed in a time when yields and dollar may be spiking again.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Trading-Capital
3
Opening (IRA): SMH Feb/March 170/154 Short Put LadderComments: My broad market positions are getting a little crowded and busy, so deploying some buying power into some sector ETF's, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. 30-day isn't bad here at 36.3%, but this isn't exactly as weak as it has been, so it's possible that a better entry could be had. Because of that, I'll look to potentially add should better opportunities present themselves. The goal here is to collect premium and/or to reduce cost basis in shares that you might be eventually assigned and not necessarily to get ideal entries; there is, after all, some "slop"/room to be wrong with these. That being said, being patient and getting paid something decent for a lower strike is always a good thing, since a lower strike means a smaller buying power effect. February 17th 170: 1.74 credit March 17th 154: 1.54 credit
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
VOLUME FLOW: SEMI'S ($SMH) AGAINST THE BROADER MARKET ($SPY)VOLUME FLOW INDEX: Both $SPY (broader market) and $SMH (semi-conductor industry) are currently in a neutral trend as measured by their 13 Day EMA envelope (top box). Both are also residing in similar places within their longer term downward trends. It is only when we take a look at volume as measured by the Volume Flow Index (VFI) that we can uncover some relative differences that could prove meaningful in the near term. Volume has yet to breach zero line (white horizontal histogram) to the upside in broader market ($SPY, see left lower box). Volume has breached the zero line in the semi-conductor sector($SMH, see lower right box), as illustrated by the yellow vertical line. This would indicate good 'force' behind the recent semi-conductor rally as measured by 'volume follow through' which I would consider a measure of 'conviction'. This could be indicative of a near term preference for the semi's amidst an overall run to defensives in the broader market OR it could just be that semi's are a little bit stickier than the rest of 'growth' and still have some downside wood to chop. Given the semi's association with 'Growth' this divergent volume trend seemed counter-intuitive to the prevailing narrative so I thought I would share. (Not financial advice)
NASDAQ:SMH
by Firewalker_Charts
Warning VIX model is now set up to SOAR My work posted a few days back call for a drop to below 20 .Today we saw this and I was 85 % plus net long goint into this morning in trow spy qqq smh aapl and calls I HAVE SOLD EVERYTHING net gain 3.5 to 4.6 % I am now back to 100 % cash the net gain for 2022 is now back above 64.2 % . I stated this rally would be very strong into jan 3/10 2023 see 1973 chart dec 15 . The issue is now that the VIX did not get up to mid 24 /27 as I had hoped . So what is next well we had 4 days below the bb bands which on odds rallies min back into it and we saw that today . I do NOT like the pattern in the vix see the arrows and this formation the last 4/5 times the VIX SOARED > I am flat and I will not short . I am NOT SURE with this setup I must PROTECT GAINS as everyone else takes losses of min 20 % see forecast dec 2021 model min drop 20% for 2022 well 2023 I think we will see another 16.8 to 21 % drop I am working on the cycles as well as the SPIRALS . best of trades WAVETIMER
TVC:VIX
by wavetimer
2
sticks n stones may break my bones but chains n whips excite me.whats so problematic about nasdaq futures right now is the fundamental ask behind what i call good or bad credit (cheap/long v. expensive/short) and sellers are facing raising rates, which is willing to be fed by more 0 or negative rates in future. if you study the actual hawkish language behind the feds stance you will find its actually soft. the reason we had a runoff on the balance sheet last dec. (its been 11 months) was the incredible 2021 rally that was based on outdated models of payment and consumer discretionary spending, vehicles, travel and the like came to the fore as a broken way of paying 2020 debt. this is carrying over to a nightmare scenario around american saftey net spending (human infrastructure) which is insolvent. if us equities are going to keep the lights on they are going to leverage everything against additional spending while debt is cheap. bear nasdaq.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by cerealpatterns
4
Soxs is the ticket out of povertyDefended support, on high volume, trendline support, Capitulation already took place, inverse head and shoulders break, semis are overpriced and garbage again after 40% rally. Come with me as we milk this one last time into vix 45 If this market keeps going up slowly or continues consolidating I will keep adding 3month and 10 year yields are inverted like hell and people are buying 2000 pe stocks into a recession god help us all The fact that Bitcoin still has buyers sickens me
AMEX:SOXSLong
by Okbronpbro
SMH ETF (Global Semiconductor’s trend”..20/Oct/22VanEck ETF which “tracking /invest” on 25 global major semiconductors stocks. Probably found its “base” @ around 148.90 - P/s. Probably the “next recession” might be caused by “geopolitical tensions” cause by 2 big brothers..A kinds of “wars e.g chips war, trade war, or “actual war”....” Probably an “Imposed /sanctioned by” a “freedom democracy/free trade” country toward “a so called not a democracy country”..
NASDAQ:SMH
by SteveTan
SOXL / SMH - CREATING A BULLISH REVERSALBACKGROUND: SOXL (3x ETF) created a great reversal pattern back in JUNE - JULY 2022. It's tempting to ignore it because it ultimately failed on 8/26/22. Nonetheless, it was a great technical entry point when the price broke above $17. CURRENT PRICE ACTION: The reason I'm pointing out what happened in JUNE - JULY is because SOXL ETF is forming another BULLISH reversal (early stage) having just passed above last Friday's (9/30) high and entering back into the $9.50 - $10.50 range. The two previous reversals (8/26, 9/13) had failed. Yet the job of a trader is to not HOPE or PREDICT, but rather TRADE the signals and MANAGE RISK ACCORDINGLY . GAMEPLAN: I'm watching if the price closes above $10.35 (approx.) within the next few days. I'm anticipating some price action around this level. Any close above $10.35 can follow with some pullback. In fact this is a GREAT entry point for the bears if we were to follow trend alone. However, the reversal that happened from $9.50 and the bounce that's happening on the NASDAQ (potential double bottom) can signal a potential reversal in the market (short-term). There are two potential bullish reversal scenarios: 1. Straight up(rare) 2. Chop sideways and build a larger reversal base (as happened in JUNE - JULY) LOOK-OUT FOR: What comes out of the FED emergency meeting. As mentioned in my previous post on the status of the DOW JONES - I think the analysts at the FED see the same. The FED will either blink and change its' stance or the market is taking another big leg down... Be safe all and thank you for reading.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by andremkv
2