S&P 500 - Elliott Wave Bearish BreakdownThis S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) daily chart highlights a potential bearish Elliott Wave structure following rejection from a key resistance zone.
- The market encountered strong resistance near the 5,600 level, leading to a sharp decline.
- A five-wave impulsive bearish structure appears to be forming, with Waves (1) and (2) already completed.
- If this pattern continues, Waves (3), (4), and (5) could drive prices lower, targeting key support levels in the coming weeks.
Traders should watch for confirmation of Wave (3) acceleration, as it is typically the strongest wave in an impulse. A break below recent lows could confirm further downside, while a strong bounce from lower levels may indicate a correction or trend reversal.
Risk management remains crucial, as volatility can increase during corrective and impulsive waves. Keep an eye on macroeconomic factors and technical confluences for additional confirmation.
SMP
SPX Technical Analysis BreakdownHere is my technical breakdown of SPX on the 4 HOUR time frame...
We started the month of May with an up-trend trend line bounce on a key support level which saw SPX climb slightly passed the support zone to surpass another key zone
After this climb, we saw it accumulating in a RANGE from 14th May - 29th May, where it eventually broke to the downside. Normally this is a trade we would enter as it's a big volume range break, however, it broke downwards to touch a key support zone. In my experience this is NOT a trade worth taking as they are opposite confirmations.
Later in July we finally got the RANGE trade we were looking for, when 17th June - 5th July we saw it's ACCUMULATING RANGE break with large volume to the UPSIDE. This trend was worth entering as it was heading towards a key resistance area, a great place to exercise your exit strategy.
Once SPX hit the key resistance zone it bounced off and formed a downward trend line that would also be hit later down the line, confirming its relevance.
When SPX hit the resistance line it found plenty of BULL TRADERS on the key SUPPORT level and bounced back up to touch the key RESISTANCE level on 20th AUGUST, where once again it touched the downward trend line.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR NOW -
I'm watching to see if SPX enters the resistance zone and breaks the trend-line and exits the zone, that's two confirmations for an uptrend which makes me confident in the long trade.
On the other side, i'm waiting for the trend to retest key support zones where I will be waiting for a key zone breakout or bounce back to the resistance level.
SMP- Downward momentum short $48.33 to $44.13 or lowerSMP looking nice breakdown short setup. All the moving averages clustering beneath it. If it continues it break, it has long way to go. On the option side we would consider $50 September puts
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- May 22, 2017
Pattern/Why-Downward momentum short
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $48.33
Exit Target Criteria- $44.13 7 lower
Stop Loss Criteria- $%0.23
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)