Snap
OPENING: SNAP AUGUST 21ST 21/30.5 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 1.26/contract credit.
Notes: High rank/implied running into earnings. Looking to take profit at 50% max or otherwise manage on side approaching worthless or side test ... .
Defined Risk Alternatives: August 21st 17/25/25/33 iron fly, paying 4.00 (1.00 at 25% max) (a "stays within expected move" play) or an 18/21/28/31 iron condor, paying 1.05 (.52 at 50% max).
Snapchat's market cap is $36 billion? How?Snapchat is worth $36 billion and they've been burning ~$300 million a quarter for almost 15 straight quarters.
It's kind of impressive at this point.
I think Uber is another company that gets away with this. I would be curious to hear any and all bull cases.
My quick thoughts on Snapchat before earningsThis is one of those stocks that I have always watched and the price action is pretty impressive. It STILL has not taken out its IPO-day highs and it's gone through years or harsh drawdowns followed by v-shaped recoveries. It is has not been an easy stock to hold for anyone long-term.
With that being said, I marked some important levels such as the Volume Profile most significant point of shares traded on a weekly basis since its IPO. I also marked its IPO day highs.
For the bulls to take this to the moon and gain complete control, it seems something has to happen on the fundamental side: positive and growing free cash flow. That means they can continue at their existing rate and reinvest in the company. If not, well, I think it could drop back to the 20s or teens.
THE WEEK AHEAD: SNAP, TWTR VOL CONTRACTION PLAYS; GDXJEARNINGS:
Bunch of options liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week:
IBM (27/36/<10%), Monday, After Market Close
SNAP (43/79/18.1%): Tuesday, After Market Close
MSFT (29/38/<10%): Wednesday, After Market Close
TWTR (44/69/15.8%): Thursday, Before Market Open
INTC (24/39/<10%): Thursday, After Market Close
AMZN (70/55/12.5%) (Thursday, After Market Close) and TSLA (48/109/25.4%) (Wednesday, After Market Close) also announce, but options aren't the most liquid here, even though it's tempting to play all that juice in TSLA, with 30-day at 109% and the August 21st at-the-money short straddle paying a 25.4% of the stock price (which has gone parabolic).
From a buck banging standpoint, SNAP and TWTR look to be the potentially most productive for pure volatility contraction plays. Pictured here is an August 21st 20/29 directionally neutral short strangle, which was paying 1.39 as of Friday close. For those of a defined risk bent, consider something akin to the 18/21/28/31, which was paying slightly greater than one-third the width of the wings at 1.10 or a similar setup.
The TWTR August 21st 31/41 was paying 2.06 with a one-third-the-wing-width setup preliminarily being something like the 29/32/40/43, paying 1.21.
Naturally, strikes may have to be adjusted, depending how the underlyings move running into earnings.
EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK AND SCREENED FOR 30-DAY >35% AND AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE >10% OF STOCK PRICE:
XLE (28/44/10.3%)
GDXJ (23/55/12.0%)
EWZ (17/44/10.3%)
XOP (15/56/10.2%)
Relative to the past few weeks, volatility has dried up here quite a bit. The August monthly has 33 days left in it, so part of the "not paying" part has to do with duration. My tendency here would be to hold off, waiting until September duration (61 days) comes into range; it's still a little bit lengthy if you want to stick to stuff in that 45 day give-or-take wheelhouse.
BROAD MARKET:
Only IWM (33/37/8.3%) currently has a 30-day in excess of 35%, and that ain't saying much, with the at-the-money short straddle paying less than 10% of the value of the underlying.
IRA SHOPPING LIST/DIVIDEND YIELDERS:
Only EWZ (17/44/10.3%) has a 30-day >35%, along with the August at-the-money short straddle paying >10% of the stock price metric. I've already got a small short put ladder stuck out there (See Post Below), but aren't very tempted to add with the implied being so low within the 52-week range -- in the 17% percentile.
AMPL:BTC long opportunity at 78.6% Fib retracement level.@ 78.6% Fib retracement (~0.000179 BTC)
Green IchiCloud forming.
Higher low set.
Inverse head and shoulder formation emerging again (clearer on the 5min chart).
Have the sell pressure ended?
Buy on confirmation: When AMPL goes above green 50 SMA and holds.
---
PRISM Oscillators Set (Momentum/Acceleration Analysis)
pRSI STOCHS in an oversold state (green background)
pRSI entering Bullish phase again, piercing above its 30 VWMA; supported by hidden bullish divergence.
Snap-Osc (yellow) in the positive, pulling AJ-ribbon upwell into the positive, which in turn have pulled the momentum oscillator up back into the positive again.
Looking at the hourly chart:
Looking at the 3 hourly chart:
Bullish perspective of BTCUSD (Daily Chart)Main Chart
BTC need to close above this updated dotted yellow trendline to confirm a long.
Long-term Resistance (solid white line) up just above ~10000 USD.
Lossa bullish W-ing like accumulation patterns.
PRISM Oscillator Set
Stochs presently oversold (Green Background)
Red pRSI (Main-Oscillator) resting back to the baseline.
Acceleration/Jerk Ribbon creeping sideways in the positive.
For Altcoins vs. BTC analysis, see:
Altcoin pump ahead? BTC Dominance bearish.BTC.D have fallen below the white dotted support line -- continue to get rejected by the red 21 EMA, and remaining under the green 50 SMA and orange 200 SMA.
PRISM Oscillator signals (red background) Stochs oversold, with (lime/orange) acceleration/jerk (AJ) ribbon plunging into the negative with snap-oscillator (yellow/pink) getting rejected by the 0 line and remaining in the negative.
Snapchat trend forecast July 2020a very large increase since 2017, which confirms the upward trend, a very good investment for the next 2 months
Snap possible passHello. Here what I think about SNAP. Friend asked me if we should do something about this stock. It seems like it has upside down head and shoulders now. Which is a bullish reversal sign for long near term. You can see clearly the setup on chart and probably future upside path. 3rd path maybe greater. But for now, I would target $28-29 per share. We will see how much snap made during the quarterly report, I would assume a lot of people were snapping while on lock down. I might get into trade as well. If I would, I would get a month long option here. ( some correlation for quarterly report needed. If it pops, sell the option ). However, my friend buy and sell share, so less risk. Options require timely sell, shares requires time :)
SNAP: at the "make or break" level i was going to close my long SNAP - but on a second look, we're at the critical level from all the way back to the 2017 IPO times .. marked with the red dotted line @ $23.3 ' ish
the chart shows some anxious sellers (non-believers 😊 ?) who preferred to bail as soon as SNAP hit the > $24 levels - but then we saw no follow thru - so in my view, there's a good chance the demand / bulls takes over - and we should get the result of that really soon.
i may be wrong - but if that happens and the longs manage to push above the safety level $24.10, SNAP may be on to a nice breakout and new highs.
will hold the position for now.
BTC:USD - Inverse head and shoulderBTC looks like it is ready to rebound on the hourly.
Confirmed if price breaks out above yellow dotted line.
Bullish PRISM Oscillators signals (Daily Chart):
Stochs Oversold State
S-Osc in the positive.
Acceleration heading into positive, expecting to pull momentum up towards the positive.
Cyber Ensemble Signals (Daily Chart):
Long-term trend of the yellow dotted line: