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EURJPY | MarketoutlookThe policy divergence between the US Fed and SNB supports the pair at lower levels.   Jobless claims dropped to 227,000 for the week ending October 19, down from 242,000 the week before, suggesting some stability in the labor market. The four-week moving average rose by 6,750, reaching 231,000, which indicates that jobless claims are still showing fluctuations despite the recent decline.    The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 47.8 in October, up from 47.3 in September. However, this still shows that manufacturing activity is contracting for the fourth month in a row. On the other hand, the Flash Services PMI rose to 51.5, indicating modest growth in the services sector, which is important since it makes up a large part of the U.S. economy.
Long
by DCFX-TA
USDCHF - Dollar will continue to grow after FOMC?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of upward correction, we can see the supply zone and sell within that zone with appropriate risk reward. The bottom of the ascending channel will be the target of this move. The Federal Reserve recently reduced its interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 4.75%. The Fed’s statement indicates that the “labor market has cooled,” whereas the previous statement had only mentioned a “slower job market growth.” Additionally, there appears to be a slight decline in confidence regarding inflation reduction. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, emphasized that he will remain in his role until the end of his term. When asked about fiscal policies, Powell stated that such matters are outside the Fed’s authority. He added that if the economy remains strong and inflation does not reach the 2% target, monetary policy adjustments may occur at a slower pace. He also highlighted that the policies of any administration or Congress could have significant economic impacts, but these effects will be evaluated alongside other factors. The recent report on Switzerland’s consumer inflation index indicates that the global landscape has not changed significantly from the pre-COVID era. After the inflation shock of the COVID period, some banking officials speculated that the world was entering a new phase where zero or negative interest rates were unlikely, and the neutral rate would be higher. However, there is no strong evidence to support this claim, especially with the major transformations anticipated from the growth of artificial intelligence. Furthermore, many analysts believe that the risks associated with de-globalization and demographic arguments are not as compelling. In September, the Swiss National Bank revised its inflation forecast for 2025 from 1.1% to 0.6% and also adjusted the interest rate. The inflation forecast for this year was revised down from 1.3% to 1.2%. The next meeting of the Swiss National Bank is scheduled for December 12, and if current conditions persist (including energy prices and exchange rates), a 50-basis-point rate cut could become a strong option. Deutsche Bank also sees an increasing likelihood of a return to negative interest rates, noting factors that could lead to higher risk and a stronger Swiss franc. These challenges are not exclusive to Switzerland; Europe as a whole is facing similar issues. Deutsche Bank has indicated that, currently, inflation in Europe does not pose a significant problem.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Will USDCHF reverse its course due to the new SNB's prospect?Macro theme: - Swiss inflation unexpectedly slowed to 0.6% in Oct—the lowest in over three years—raising expectations that the SNB may opt for a more significant 0.5% rate cut in Dec to keep inflation within its 0-2% target range. - Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% but issued a slightly more hawkish statement. Technical theme: - USDCHF broke the descending channel after testing both EMAs, which just golden crossed each other, indicating a bullish momentum exists. - USDCHF may retest the broken descending trendline, confluence with the support level around 0.8693-0.8700 before resuming its upward movement to retest 0.8825. - On the contrary, a closing below 08626 may prompt a deeper correction to a nearby support around 0.8550. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
USDCHF Reaffirms Bearish Bias after Timid SNB & US PCEThe Swiss National Bank was the first major institution to shift to monetary easing and remains at the forefront after its third consecutive rate cut this week. However, it stuck with the small 0.25% increments, which are meager compared to the Fed’s jumbo 0.5% pivot and aggressive easing path. Furthermore, with rates already at 1%, the SNB easing runway may not be very long. Today’s US inflation figures favor the Fed’s dovishness, as headline PCE decelerated to 2.2% and the lowest in more than three years. These dynamics weigh on the pair and reaffirm the bearish below the EMA200. This sustains risk for further losses below 0.8333 and levels not seen since at least 2015, although sustained weakness below it is hard. Core PCE ticked up to 2.7% y/y and the Fed’s frontloading may fuel further persistence in price pressures and lead to fewer cuts later on. On the Swiss front, policymakers may not be able to avoid larger rate cuts. Inflation dropped to 1.1% in August and they expect further deceleration to 0.6% next year, while the elevated Franc harms exports and ads to the pressure for bigger policy moves and/or FX intervention. Despite the post-pandemic shift, the SNB has generally sought to keep the Swiss Franc from appreciating and has kept rates below zero for most of the past ten years. As a result, we can see another effort surpass the EMA200 and pause the bearish bias. This would bring the 38.2% Fibonacci of the May-September slump into the spotlight, but we are cautious around the ascending prospects as the upside looks unfriendly. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
2
Swiss franc edges lower after Swiss central bank cuts ratesThe Swiss franc is showing limited movement on Thursday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.8483, down 0.24% on the day. In the US, it’s a busy day with US GDP, unemployment claims and durable goods orders. As well, Federal Reserve Chair Powell and several FOMC members will deliver remarks. The Swiss National Bank lowered its cash rate by 25 basis points to 1%, its third straight reduction. The cash rate is now at its lowest level since early 2023. The move was not a surprise and the Swiss franc has showed a limited reaction to the rate announcement. The SNB statement noted that inflation has “decreased significantly”, in part due to the appreciation of the Swiss franc and that inflation, which has fallen to 1.1%, was lower than expected. The statement added that further rate cuts “may become necessary” to ensure price stability. The stronger Swiss franc has raised the possibility of a currency intervention by the SNB and investors were on the look-out for any hints from the SNB at today’s meeting. The statement didn’t point to any intervention plans, noting that the central bank “remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.” The Swiss franc’s safe haven status has made it an attractive asset at a time of market volatility but this is hurting the critical export sector. The SNB could step in if the Swiss franc continues to appreciate. The SNB has become a frontrunner among central banks in cutting interest rates, a result of its success in taming inflation. Other major banks have also lowered rates but are still concerned about the upside risk of inflation and have not chopped rates as aggressively as the SNB. USD/CHF is testing support at 0.8475. Below, there is support at 0.8444 0.8536 and 0.8567 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUDCHF: RBA and SNB Can Send Pair even higherIn this article, I will take a closer look at AUD/CHF, and the reason for focusing on this pair is the potential divergence between the RBA and the SNB, which could push the pair even higher. The RBA is expected to hold rates at 4.35%, as inflation slightly increased year-on-year to 3.8% in the second quarter, up from 3.6% in the first quarter. On the other hand, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may once again cut rates, which could help keep AUD/CHF in an uptrend. Looking at the wave structure, we have seen a very nice ABC setback down to 0.5605, which ended in mid-September. Ideally, we are now in a new impulsive phase. However, for this current leg up to be completed, we need to see five waves up, and based on the subdivisions, that is not the case yet. In fact, a wave four correction could appear in the next few days, presenting an opportunity to join the uptrend. Support can be found around the 0.5780 area, which also aligns with the previous wave B swing area. The price should not fall below 0.5729, otherwise the wave count will become invalid.
Long
by ew-forecast
AUD/USD sinks ahead of GDPThe Australian dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6732 in the European session, down 0.88% today at the time of writing. Australia’s economy has been sputtering and the markets aren’t expecting much change from second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. GDP is expected to trickle lower to 1% y/y, down from 1.1% in Q1, which was the weakest pace of growth since Q4 2020. Quarterly, the market estimate for GDP stands at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in Q1. GDP-per-capita is expected to be negative, another indication that economic activity remains subdued. Australia has been hit by a drop in iron ore and core prices and exports fell by 4.4% in the second quarter, which doesn’t bode well for the Australian dollar. The GDP is unlikely to change the Reserve Bank of Australia’s plans when it meets on Sept. 24. The central bank is closely watching inflation, which remains stubbornly high, as well as the labor market. Governor Bullock has said she has no plans to lower the cash rate from its current 4.35% for the next six months. The RBA has stuck to its “higher for longer” stance and has maintained rates since November. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates on September 18, with a 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut and a 31% likelihood of a half-point cut. Ahead of the meeting is a crucial employment report on Friday. The previous jobs report was much weaker than expected and triggered a meltdown in the financial markets. Another weak jobs report would raise the likelihood of a half-point cut, while a solid release will cement a quarter-point cut. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6780 and is testing support at 0.6737. Below, there is support at 0.6708 0.6809 and 0.6852 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USDCHF: Elliott Waves and Dovish SNB Are Pointing HigherUSDCHF turned higher this year, after breaking some important trendline connected from 2022 highs on a daily chart, where a breakout can lead to higher prices within a big triangle range. One of the reasons why Swiss franc is that weak compared to others is because SNB surprised and cut rates twice after inflation has softened. So as long as FED sticks to current rates, USDCHF may do well, but this cycle may change later this year when FED finally cuts if data convince them that inflation is back at normal levels again. But for now, we have to focus on the current trend and pattern which seems to be pointing higher, on USDCHF. Looking at the 4-hour chart, it looks like pair recently pulled lower into a higher degree corrective setback, temporary (A)-(B)-(C) corrective decline, where wave (C) appears completed because of five subwaves down from wave (B). We also see some nice reactions higher, from new low and back above 0.900 where overlap confirms the resumption of an uptrend. However, there can be some intraday setback as pair comes into a channel resistance now, near 0.9050. But sooner or later we think the channel will be out and more upside ahead, while the market is above 0.8826, the short-term invalidation level.
by ew-forecast
USDCHF Tests Critical Resistance on Dovish SNBHaving pivoted away from its tightening cycle in March, the Swiss National Bank delivered the second straight rate cut last week, making it a frontrunner in the shift to monetary easing. Officials also lowered their inflation forecasts, creating scope for more moves ahead. Its US counterpart on the other hand, is reluctant to pivot due to stubborn inflation and Fed officials see just one cut this year. This monetary policy divergence is beneficial for USD/CHF, which surges after the SNB back-to-back rate cut. It now tries to take out a pivotal resistance cluster, comprising of the EMA200 (black line), the 38.2% Fibonacci of the last decline and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Successful effort will give control back to the bulls and allow them to look towards the 2024 peak (0.9225-46), but this may prove elusive in the near term. On the other hand, with two rate cuts already under their belt, Swiss policymakers may become less bold. Furthermore, the Fed may have adopted a higher for longer stance, but still sees less restrictive stance ahead and markets are more optimistic, pricing in two rate cuts within the year. Overbought conditions indicated by the RSI and the aforementioned critical resistance confluence, can put pressure on USD/CHF. So a pullback that would challenge 0.8825 would not be surprising, but deeper losses towards and beyond 0.8730 are not compatible with the monetary policy dynamics. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Long
by FXCM
EUR/CHF: Navigating SNB Cut and French Election DynamicsHey Traders, In today's trading session, we are closely observing the EUR/CHF pair for a potential selling opportunity around the 0.95500 zone. This level is identified as a key support and resistance area, aligning with the ongoing downtrend. The pair is currently in a corrective phase, approaching the trend line near the 0.95500 level. Recent Developments: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy Adjustment: Yesterday, the SNB implemented a 25 basis points rate cut. This move typically signals a dovish monetary stance, which might initially weaken the Swiss Franc. French Elections: As we approach the French elections, demand for the Swiss Franc is anticipated to remain robust. Political uncertainty often drives investors towards safe-haven currencies like the CHF. Given these dynamics, we expect the recent SNB rate cut's impact on the Swiss Franc to be temporary. The heightened demand for the Franc amid electoral uncertainty should bolster its strength, making the 0.95500 zone a critical level to watch for potential selling opportunities in the EUR/CHF pair. Best Regards, Joe
Short
by JoeChampion
2
USD/CHF downtrend pauses for breath ahead of SNBThere is quite a bit of uncertainty with today's SNB rate decision, over whether they'll cut or hold. And that has seen the 1--day implied volatility level more than double its 20-day average. The market is clearly in a downtrend on the daily chart, having broken key support on Tuesday. Prices are now consolidating above the weekly S1 pivot on the hourly chart. If the SNB do cut and spark a rebound on USD/CHF, the preference is to step aside and seek evidence of a swing high. This is because we now know the SNB no longer want a weaker currency, so any upshot today is likely to be temporary. And this scenario would be preferred as it allows for an improved reward to risk ratio. However, as the decline of the inflation rate rate is slowing, growth was stronger than expected and the SNB do not want a weaker currency, a hold seems more likely. In which case, a move towards 0.88 is on the cards near the high-volume node of the prior uptrend and the lower 1-day implied volatility band.
Short
by CityIndex
USD/CHF – flat ahead of SNB rate decisionThe Swiss franc is almost unchanged on Wednesday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.8838 in the North American session, down 0.04% on the day. Switzerland’s central bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday and the markets are on edge. Will the Swiss National Bank lower rates or hold? The SNB last met in March and that meeting was memorable, as policy makers shocked the markets with a quarter-point cut, bringing the cash rate to 1.50%. Investors had expected the SNB to continue to maintain rates at the March 21st meeting, but the SNB decided to respond to declines in inflation and growth and became the first major central bank to lower rates this year. The Swiss franc took a bath and fell 1.2% against the US dollar the day of the March meeting, its second-to-worst daily performance this year. The Swissie proceeded to lose more ground in the following weeks but has recovered almost completely. Economists are split 50/50 on whether the SNB will cut on Thursday, while the money markets have cut expectations of a rate cut to 60%, compared to 80% just one month ago. The ultra-cautious SNB has been mum, with no public comments from Bank policy makers over the past three weeks, which has only intensified the suspense. Inflation has been steady in the upper half of the SNB’s target range of 0% to 2% and Swiss growth has been steady, which would support the case to hold rates. On the other hand, exports have been weak and the Swiss franc has appreciated 3.3% against the US dollar since May 30th. A rate cut by the SNB could weigh on the Swiss franc and make Swiss exports more attractive on world markets. The uncertainty ahead of the SNB meeting makes this a live meeting and could translate into volatility from the Swiss franc on Thursday. There is support at 0.8809 and 0.8777 0.8860 and 0.8892 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Swiss franc climbing, eyes Swiss inflationSwiss franc has extended its gains on Monday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.8961 in the North American session, down 0.68%. The Swiss franc posted its strong weekly gain of the year last week, rising 1.35%. The Swissie jumped over 1% on Thursday after Swiss National Bank President Jordan hinted that the central bank could intervene in the currency markets in order to keep a lid on inflation. Thomas’ comments gave a boost to the Swiss currency, which has sagged in 2024. Even with last week’s strong gains, however, the Swiss franc has plunged 7.1% against the US dollar. The Swiss franc weakened after the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates in March. A weaker Swiss franc helped make Swiss exports more competitive on world markets, but the currency’s sharp descent may have become too much of a good thing, as it is feeding inflation and raising concerns at the central bank. The Swiss franc’s downswing has had a strong impact on market expectations for a rate cut at the June 28th meeting. In early May, swap markets priced a 66% probability of a rate cut, which has fallen to around 40%. The SNB isn’t likely to make good on Jordan's threat to buy Swiss francs unless the currency continues to show a sharp depreciation, but last week’s jump shows how comments from central bankers can cause sharp swings in the currency markets. Switzerland releases May CPI on Tuesday. This is the final economic release prior to the central bank’s rate meeting and could be a major factor in the SNB’s rate decision. Swiss CPI is expected to tick up to 0.4% m/m in May, compared to 0.3% in April. USD/CHF is testing support 0.8966. Below, there is support at 0.8909 0.9061 and 0.9118 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Last Leg (Update) - USDCHF Year So FarHey everyone!! Here I talk about USDCHF and give a little update on my Trade Idea "Last Leg To The Finish Line" Since it went over so well and continuing to follow suit, I wanted to do a Video Update on the idea to give a little insight on what I was seeing as the pair unfolded for the year and what I'm looking for in the near future!! Please let me know what you think and thank you so much for all the Support!! .. It all started with a little Double Bottom on the Hourly Chart
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
When policies and triggers divergeFundamentals & Sentiment The outlooks of SNB and RBA go in opposite directions, with SNB staying one of the most regulators and RBA not considering cutting rates until August. On the triggers side, we've got strong employment data from Australia today. From the other side, the SNB has cut the interest rate, while the market expected Hold with 63% odds. Finally, CFTC data shows AUD being stretched to the downside which is another reason to buy AUD. Technical & Other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: D Trigger: 1h Medium term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: Rectangle height, June 2023 highs Risk: 0.79%
Long
by Cherry94
USD/CHF H4 | Potential bullish bounceUSD/CHF could fall towards a pullback support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 0.89483 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 0.89076 which is a pullback support that lies underneath the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 0.90296 which is a level that aligns with the 100.0% Fibonacci projection level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
Swiss franc slides after SNB lowers ratesThe Swiss franc has tumbled on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank lowered interest rates. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8987, up 1.35% on the day. Earlier, the Swiss franc fell as low as 0.8994, its lowest level since November 23. There has been plenty of speculation as to when the Fed and other major central banks will lower interest rates, but in the end the Swiss National Bank that took the plunge first, with a quarter-point cut on Thursday. The move was a surprise as investors hadn’t expected the SNB to cut rates until June at the earliest. The SNB lowered the cash rate from 1.75% to 1.50%, sending the Swiss franc sharply lower. SNB President Thomas Jordan said after the meeting that the rate cut was in response to an “effective” battle against inflation. Inflation has been falling and is currently at 1.2%. The central bank also revised lower its inflation forecast to 1.4% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. The SNB also noted that the appreciation of the Swiss franc had dampened growth. We could add that the strong Swiss franc has also dampened inflation and allowed the SNB to shift policy and start lowering rates. The Federal Reserve held the benchmark rate at a target range of 5% to 5.25% on Wednesday, as was widely expected. The Fed maintained its projection of three rate cuts this year and revised its GDP forecast for 2024 to 2.1%, up from 1.4% in December. Fed Chair Powell noted that inflation was falling and the US economy was strong, but cautioned that the Fed would not start to cut rates until it was clear that inflation was moving sustainably towards the 2% target. The markets have priced in an initial rate cut for June, with a probability of around 75%. USD/CHF has pushed above 0.8918 and tested resistance at 0.8982 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.9095 0.8876 and 0.8812 are providing support
by OANDA
Analysis of RBA, BOJ, FOMC, SNB, BOE and the week aheadWeek of the 18th March (H4) DXY: Stay below 50% (103.70) to maintain bearish view, could trade down to 102.40 support NZDUSD: Buy 0.61 SL 30 TP 100 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6580 SL 40 TP 80 (Tuesday: RBA Decision) USDJPY: Riskier: Sell 148.50 SL 80 TP 200 (Tuesday: BOJ Policy Decision) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2760 SL 50 TP 100 (Thursday:BOE Voting) EURUSD: Sell 1.0860 SL 30 TP 60 (If DXY strengthens) USDCHF: Sell 0.8860 SL 35 TP 105 (Thursday: SNB decision) USDCAD: Buy 1.3455 SL 30 TP 13 (Tuesday: CPI data) Gold: Bounce off 2150 to retest high of 2200
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
CHFJPY: Is the high in?Starting to see Yen strength materialise, with the BoJ looking to get out of the current cycle. Surely Yen can't go much lower against all of the G10, so expecting some moves in the coming week. We've been failing at the 171.8 high for weeks so this looks like consolidation to me now, ready for a push down. Starting this week with the CHF PCI data this Tuesday, expecting to start seeing signs of cuts from the SNB so this could be a cross that moves.
Short
by Finchcliffe
AUDCHF: Will the SNB signal cuts?Of all the National Banks, analysts are expecting the SNB to be one of the first to cut, the CPI this week on Tuesday could indicate a cut is coming. Looking at price action on this pair, we've broken out of the downward channel, albeit we've struggled ton break resistance, but equally we've retested the channel boundary multiple times and so far failed to break it, so this looks like we're in the region of a medium term reversal. I'm looking for Buy entries on this pair, we need to break 0.58 to confirm the reversal, but I think there's longs to be had with LTF confirmations.
Long
by Finchcliffe
USDCHF Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCHF for a buying opportunity around 0.88100 zone, USDCHF was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.88100 support and resistance area. Adding a fundamental layer there is a contradictory between the inflation in the US and in Switzerland, Fed is concerned about the inflationary pressure and heading towards a rate hike meanwhile it's easing in Switzerland. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
EURCHF Technical Trends and SNB Policy DynamicsLooking ahead to the upcoming week, our strategic focus centers on EURCHF, as we actively evaluate a potential buying opportunity within the 0.94600 zone. The technical analysis reveals that EURCHF has been consistently advancing in an uptrend, showcasing a noteworthy upward trajectory. Currently, the currency pair is in the midst of a correction phase, steadily approaching the critical 0.94600 support and resistance area. Adding a numerical dimension to our assessment, let's consider the recent policy decisions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) from December 15, 2022, to the most recent update on September 21, 2023. The SNB initiated a significant shift by setting the interest rate at -0.25% on September 22, 2022, and has since made subsequent adjustments. The recent decision last Thursday, on September 21, 2023, reflects the SNB's choice to maintain interest rates unchanged, citing a backdrop of easing inflation. This dovish stance by the SNB not only aligns with the technical analysis pointing towards a correction in EURCHF but also sets the stage for a potential continuation of CHF weakness. The confluence of technical indicators, recent policy decisions, and numerical data heightens our interest in monitoring EURCHF for a buying opportunity. As we progress through the upcoming week, our strategic approach is to navigate and capitalize on the evolving market dynamics, leveraging the identified buying potential within the specified numerical zone.
Long
by JoeChampion