EURCHF on its way to ATL1. Be aware that the SNB (Swiss National Bank) had set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 CHF per EUR for some years to keep Switzerlands economy in place, because we rely on exports.
2. This synthetically set level can be seen in the period from 2012-2013 where the price basically did nothing for weeks and was just kept alive at that rate
3. On 15.01.2015 this synthetic minimum price was abolished and the price dumped instantly to under the equilibrium, even to 0.96 EUR per CHF. Historical moment!
4. Notice the bearish retest in 2018, what a beautiful rejection there at the last support from 2015.
5. Around start of the pandemic in march 2020 we had a bullish retest of support at bullish weekly OB indicated by the "tick" in green.
6. At the moment we broke this support and I am expecting another break and retest of this 3-month support @ 1.0418.
7. Last but not least, there is a big liquidity pool resting around the sell stops at 1.0234 , above and below. Probably will act as a magnet for price action and a big stop hunt happening there.
CONCLUSION:
--> EUR is at the brink of doom here, holding at the last support in its entire history to the Swiss Franc.
--> the narrative behind the weakness of EUR is the non-stop-printing of new money during the pandemic caused by the ECB
--> add the relatively stable condition of the swiss economy regarding the rest of europe into the mix, and you have enough reasons to sell your EUR to CHF
As a swiss-based trader, wanted to have a look at my personal exchange rate for buying things abroad or taking bigger investments like land and real estate in cheaper european countries. Applying some fundamental knowledge here, but mostly the chart explains itself with its price action. Hope this chart gives some clarification and insight!
