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EURCHF MAJOR ZONENot really a call therefore i put this idea as educational. The EURCHF seems to be at a very important resistance where the major sell off occurred at the end of 2014-15. There seems to be a lot of news indicating that the CHF will weaken further due to the negative interest rates and the SNB allowing the further depreciation of their currency - but in my opinion the TA will tell - on the higher time frames i think we should look for a divergence and couple it with the upcoming chf news this week for a SELL . A major opportunity with low risk compared to the reward and if we're wrong.... oh well. I think the euro will go back to the zone... no doubt , but just not yet.
by RickyChand
1
2018 Macro Outlook - EURCHF Bearish BiasWe have a rather bullish meeting minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB) last week, but as long as ECB maintains its easing policies, upside on the Euro may be limited. Combining with the technical aspects on the chart, we are seeing an ending diagonal structure forming, with a divergence on RSI as well. Adding on, we do see price hit the minimum expected areas based on fibonacci extension between 100% - 123.6% too. These reasons provided me the conviction in looking for a longer term trade to the downside on this pair. I will be following up and tracking this thread regularly throughout the year. Make sure you follow this idea to get notified whenever there is an update on this idea. Have a great trading year ahead!
Short
by KarYong
2
2018 Macro Outlook - USDCHF Bullish BiasBased on the macro and fundamental analysis of the US Dollar, I'm personally holding a bullish bias for 2018/19. Price may not rally straight from here, but I would rather look for buy opportunity for the longer term, and would be more aggressive in taking profit for any short trades. I will be following up and tracking this thread regularly throughout the year. Make sure you follow this idea to get notified whenever there is an update on this idea. Have a great trading year ahead!
Long
by KarYong
6
Longer term idea for the EuroSwissA longer-term bullish idea on the EURCHF - D1 - This pair looks to have recently broken out of a trading channel to the upside, I'd ideally like to see some sort of pullback to re-test the top of the channel & possibly the bullish trend line before looking to get long. Ultimately there is some Fib confluence in the yellow area on the chart, which also happens to line up nicely with the area the EURCHF was trading prior to that snap decision by the SNB in 2015 to de-peg the franc - this would be my target area to take profits on this trade should it play out of the coming weeks/months. Let's see how it plays out!
Long
by bmck1
CHFUSD: Swiss Franc going sideways from hereIn this chart I analyze the recent uptrend in the Franc. It appears to have ran into a wall, where the election day's low and the Brexit low sit, as well as a massive volume level, which will take time to break. I'd rather be flat here, and wait, we can look to buy dips in this or the Euro, or Gold or Silver probably meanwhile. This can serve as a hedge against our long positions in equities. I still see opportunity on the long side, not so much in the index, but in undervalued securities. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
USDCHF is almost ready for upward breakoutFrom April 2002 to August 2014, USDJPY is trading below the 200 week moving average. since 2014, it is trading above the 200 w moving average and the bollinger band width is tightened. this is a setup for a breakout and I will suggest an upside breakout. USDCHF have already reject to go futher south in two event EURCHF Floor Setup and Abandon event. At this moment SNB is running a massive currency risk. Her asset surges up from 40% of GDP in 2012 to 102% of GDP in 2016 and main exposure in foreign currency. so far compare to other currency like EUR, GBP, JPY.... the depreciation of CHF is very limited. USDCHF seems forming a bottom and set up for a breakout. the DXY is going to consolidate for a while, when USD surge again, look for sign of USDCHF breakout. a nice move should be expected.
by bruceyam
LONG EURCHF - SNB BID INTERVENTION @ THE 1.08 HANDLELong EURCHF - 9/10 Conviction: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan has said in the past that FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher when we were around this level previously. 2. Ive been looking for a way to effectively play long euro positioning based on the view that the ECB has come to an end of its record easing cycle, EURAUD bids felt pain in the front end of the week before popping following ECB thus I think EURCHF is a better suited proxy given the ultra low vol. 3. Volatility is also v low so risk of downside is limited, plus SNB are clear they will can intervene so the chance of long-term losses with this trade are close to 0, especially when you look at the price action 4. Over in rates the 3m euroswiss futures differential (dec-march) are implying a 2bps cut with dec -0.76 vs mar -0.78, whilst the 3m euribor implies 0.5bps of hikes with dec -0.31 vs mar -0.315.. both in recent months have experienced significant selling as rate cut hopes have plunged as inflation begins to show some footing especially in Energy. Trading Strategy - buy EURCHF <1.081 dips 1.09/1.096TP: 1. Buy EURCHF on any dips into the 1.081 level, 100pips TP but it is also advisable to take 50 or by looking at the intra day (1hr) moves even taking 10-20pips is possible several times a day as the market constantly moves higher after ANY dipping below the 1.08 handle. - i wont be running a stop on this trade given what my opinion of the SNB's commitment is and the very low IV and HV
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
22
LONG EURCHF - SNB BID INTERVENTION @ THE 1.08 HANDLELong EURCHF - 9/10 Conviction: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan has said in the past that FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher when we were around this level previously. 2. Ive been looking for a way to effectively play long euro positioning based on the view that the ECB has come to an end of its record easing cycle, EURAUD bids felt pain in the front end of the week before popping following ECB thus I think EURCHF is a better suited proxy given the ultra low vol. 3. Volatility is also v low so risk of downside is limited, plus SNB are clear they will can intervene so the chance of long-term losses with this trade are close to 0, especially when you look at the price action 4. Over in rates the 3m euroswiss futures differential (dec-march) are implying a 2bps cut with dec -0.76 vs mar -0.78, whilst the 3m euribor implies 0.5bps of hikes with dec -0.31 vs mar -0.315.. both in recent months have experienced significant selling as rate cut hopes have plunged as inflation begins to show some footing especially in Energy. Trading Strategy - buy EURCHF <1.081 dips 1.09/1.096TP: 1. Buy EURCHF on any dips into the 1.081 level, 100pips TP but it is also advisable to take 50 or by looking at the intra day (1hr) moves even taking 10-20pips is possible several times a day as the market constantly moves higher after ANY dipping below the 1.08 handle. - i wont be running a stop on this trade given what my opinion of the SNB's commitment is and the very low IV and HV
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
LONG EURCHF: POSSIBLE SNB INTERVENTION AT THE 1.08 HANDLELong EURCHF: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan says FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher/ Rate cut possible another 50bps. 2. Plus EUR vs CHF september rate expectations are skewed for a long EUR carry going forward + already EUR is more attractive than CHF (-0.4% vs -0.75% depo) - 1m CHF Libor currently pricing 25bps at 19% vs 1m EUR libor pricing 25bps at 12%. 3. Volatility is also v low so risk of downside is limitted, plus SNB are clear they will can intervene so the chance of long-term losses with this trade are close to 0. Trading Strategy - buy EURCHF <1.0799 dips 1.081/5TP: 1. Buy EURCHF on any dips below the 1.08 level, maximum of 100pips TP but much more advisable to take 50 or by looking at the intra day moves even taking 10-20pips is possible several times a day as the market constantly moves higher after ANY dipping below the 1.08 handle. - i wont be running a stop on this trade given the SNB's commitment and low IV and HV.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
7
EURCHF: SNB JORDAN - EYE & BUY 1.05/8, 80% SEPT CUT, STRONG CHFSNB President T. Jordan comment highlights: - If Needed, Can Cut Rates Further - 50bps to 1.25% possible until negative rates turn less effective - €˜Big Concern€™ Over Significantly Overvalued CHF in 2016 risk-off dominated year - CHF 3m Libor prices 80% chance of a 25bps cut (-0.75 to -1.00%) within 3 months (was only 40% before brexit) - Low bond yields not ideal for foreign-reserve management - Swiss central bank president currently doesn’t see need to act/ adjust policy, despite risks - Survey shows CHF needs to rise to 1.05 before rate cut President T. Jordan G20 Quotes: 1. “We are monitoring the situation very carefully: what are the consequences for inflation and growth in Switzerland, what are our policy options,” 2. Regards to ECB/ BOE future policy - “The franc remains significantly overvalued, it’s a big concern for us.” 3. “The low level of interest rates is of course not ideal for foreign-currency reserve management, but monetary policy is expansionary everywhere,” Jordan said. “That’s an environment we can’t change and we have to adjust our investment policy accordingly.” 4. “There clearly are risks,” but “whether they materialize or not is not in the hand of Switzerland,” he said. “It depends on the decisions Europe will take and how strongly they will affect the global economy and financial markets” and “we hope, of course, that sensible decisions will be taken.” Trading strategy: 1. Looking at the 1.08 level it looks like there is some clear SNB defence of this level, which is consistent with the SNB's comments that they have intervened at this level in the past (e.g. brexit). - So an easy strategy is to buy any <1.08 dips, with a 1.088-1.09tp as it looks as if there is some consistent buying from the 1.08 level to the 1.09 level so take advantage of this trend , lower the better, as it certainly looks as if the SNB is engaging in intervention at this level and will continue to do so - even if not officially as in the past with the 1.20 level. 2. Bloomberg Poll see's a definite SNB 25bps cut if the EURCHF drifts to the 1.05 level - so beyond buying 1.08 dips with perhaps 1lot, i advise strongly buying 1.05 and less dips with say 2-4lots based on heavy FX intervention directly or rate based if we were to such low levels. TP can be placed at the 1.08-9 level still - In terms of cutting capacity, also polled by BBG showed that the SNB has room for another 50bps of cuts before its negative policy may turn counterproductive - so this strategy is sound for now.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
BREXIT AND GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: BUY USDJPY - HOW TO TRADENow that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the market hunted for risk off. Further, as with GBP it seems entities over the weekend have increased their JPY exposure to account for the increased percieved risk within the market causing UJ to open lower at 101.6 - However, over the weekend the BOJ had a meeting with other Japanese officials to discuss their plan (an easing plan likely) to combat 1. their inflation problem and now 2. the JPY's safe haven demand strength - both of which are cured by 8/10 aggressive easing policies by the BOJ - Thus I expect the BOJ to hold and emergency meeting this week announcing these changes to have immediate affect as UJ at 100 severely puts the brakes on their inflation growth target. - Further, as previously mentioned the BOE, SNB, FOMC and ECB (among others) have all said since the brexit vote that they are prepared to provide liquidity to markets and their rhetoric has been very dovish. - Thus the BOJ's new easing package which is likely to be aggressive e.g. 20bps rate cute and a large increase QE, will help depreciate the currency through increasing supply and reducing jpy demand. Further, the supportive/ dovish stance of the worlds central banks (particularly BOE and FOMC) will help ease risk aversion which in turn SHOULD reduce JPY demand therefore helping UJ trade better to the upside. So my trading plan for UJ is to buy at levels <102 - 101/2 is ideal (we are unlikely see 99 or 100 again as the risk-off impetuses have died). UJ should hold this range between 101.2 and 103 until CB meetings are in place - I will be holding UJ in the long term through to 110-115 at least. I have 8/10 long conviction for UJ Volatility update: Current UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade at 37.5%, which is surprisingly 3-4x higher than it was last week (the risk and volatility may not be over). 1wk UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade at 20%, significantly lower than current at 37.5% - I think this is a function of the central bank meetings expected this week which are inflating current volatility, with 1wk far vols lower as the events will have elapsed already. 1m UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade up on the week at 15.5% though the time curve is flattening meaning UJ vol is falling over time - lower vols = better conditions for UJ buying. Current UJ Option demand is skewed significantly to the downside, with Puts 40% vs calls 36% thus puts are in demand by about 10% more than calls - this supports nearterm risk-off views (RR -4). USDJPY as a measure of market risk. I still suggest using UJ as a measure of GBPUSD market risk - the volatility seemingly isnt over, and with near term uncertainty high, it is prudent to track UJ and use breaks of its 101.2-103.2 range as signals of net risk on or risk-off commitment .e.g. UJ higher risk on (jpy selling), UJ lower risk off (jp buying). The risk off move for GU imo is lower in this environment, and the risk-on move is higher. Thus, IMO UJ and GU are sync'd, and the two should be used as a tool.
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
BREXIT & GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: SHORT GBPUSD - HOW TO TRADEGBPUSD - At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day. - GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU too low for the brexit vote. On the back of this I expect the following for GU this week: 1. I have a 8/10 short conviction on GU and ultimately believe it will trade <1.30 by weeks end for the following reasons: - - As on friday, the bearish movements we saw on GBP were 90% fast money trades and NOT real/ slow money positioning (due to different regulations and trading strategies) therefore, this week, slow/ real money will now be able to get behind the short sterling move thus providing momentum for GBP to move lower and sub 1.30. *Fast money is hedge funds and slow money is asset managers* - David Cameron UK PM also resigned following the result, thus putting further downside expectations on GBP in the near-medium term particularly as it as all come at once. - Also the BOE plans to increase its QE by 66% 350bn to 600bn to support markets but this printing increasing GBP money supply affect puts downward pressure on the GBPUSD. - Further, members of the European parliament have asked and put pressure on the UK to make their exit faster than previously expected, this puts further uncertainty around the brexit and increases the negative impact it may have on the economy and therefore the GBP speculation is made further bearish. - As pictured I had expected the 1.356-1.382 range that had held at the end of last week to hold for the next 24hrs and for GU to trade relatively flat (24hrs for people to make decisions on positioning) however it looks like corporations and other entities have derisked their GBP exposure over the weekend hence we opened 300pips lower at 1.342. - With this range broken we now trade in no mans land, thus with all the negative biases my target from now is for GU to drift towards the lows set from last week for now - If the market changes significantly within the next few hours (e.g. trades back into range) i will update this view. - My target for GBP is <1.30 with a terminal value of 1.25 within the quarter - though i consider that the supportive (no hike) policy of the FOMC will ease GBPUSD losses somewhat. This in mind shorts at these levels are fair 1.34. Alternatively, I also encourage my favourite tactic of shorting/ fading any GBP rallies to 1.38/39 however the chance of GU realising such upside imo is only 50%, with bid trading dominating Volatility update: Current GU ATM 50 delta vols trade at 25%, which is surprisingly 2x higher than it was last week (the risk and volatility may not be over). 1wk GU ATM 50 delta vols trade at 30%, significantly higher than last week also. However 1ms trade 20.49% and are significantly lower than they were last week (illustrating the event risk that has elapsed). Current GU Option demand is skewed significantly to the downside, with Puts 27.5% vs calls 22.5% thus puts are in demand by about 20% more than calls - this supports current short views (RR -5). 1wk GU demand is also skewed in favour of downside coverage, with puts at 33% vs calls 28%, (RR -5%) with puts being demanded apprx 3% more than calls - supporting the near terms view of short GU USDJPY as a measure of market risk. I still suggest using UJ as a measure of GBPUSD market risk - the volatility seemingly isnt over, and with near term uncertainty high, it is prudent to track UJ and use breaks of its 101.2-103.2 range as signals of net risk on or risk-off commitment .e.g. UJ higher risk on (jpy selling), UJ lower risk off (jp buying). The risk off move for GU imo is lower in this environment, and the risk-on move is higher. Thus, IMO UJ and GU are sync'd, and the two should be used as a tool.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
is the snb weakening their currency?The British Pound has been getting crushed by the Swiss Franc since 11/21 but starting 4/8 the Pound has managed a nice counter-trend rally. The reasons for traders to flock to the Franc for the Pound are more than I wish to list in this post. Any currency can manage a counter trend rally, but if the fundamentals are against that currency, the rally will quickly run out of steam. If the Pound breaks through the 1.4100-1.4150 level, it currently occupies and starts a rally to the 1.47 area the technical damage is substantial, and we declare the downtrend over. From a fundamental standpoint, there is no apparent reason for the market's sudden change of heart. One possible explanation is an intervention by the Swiss National Bank who don't like to see their currency become two strong since it makes exports expensive and can be harmful to the economy.
Long
by positionforex
CHFJPY: Want to short oil? Here's a nice proxy pair...CHFJPY is offering a terrific reward/risk opportunity in the daily chart. As you can see I have marked a level of net short positioning for oil futures traders, as well as added the oil line chart as an overlay to the comittment of traders report data indicator so you can see what happened the last time commercial hedgers' net short positions reached these levels. I anticipate downtrend continuation naturally, and as you can see, this pair is a good alternative to outright shorting oil futures, and if you factor in pips instead of % distance, it can outperform the oil shorts, with potentially lower risk (considering the way the chart's setup). As a sidenote, commercial traders are now net short the Swiss Franc, which is good incentive too. (They have been wrong in the Yen, but large specs have captures all major moves in it and are net long and increasing longs currently). Entry is either a new daily low, or a retracement to the red triangle tip with stops above the red line or using 1 to 3 times the daily ATR value. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
USDCHF: Quarterly uptrend almost confirmed but weekly is bearishIn my previous publication I shared an optimum level to go long USDCHF using the quarterly uptrend stop loss. Currently we have retested this key level, and rallied, but we approach a heavy resistance zone and the weekly chart presents a confirmed 13 week decline which aims for 0.93084. I had added the FOMC key levels, which represent support and resistance levels derived from price action around the Fed's meetings and minutes release dates. They let us anticipate direction and targets for the moves in this and other pairs heavily affected by their decisions. Any of these levels presents an opportunity to fade the retest utilizing an ATR based stop loss. In this case, I'd be looking to short USDCHF higher, anticipating the completion of the weekly downtrend target, but I'd be extremely careful when approaching the quarterly mode (or more frequent price) at 0.9476. When and if March closes without retesting said level, a quarterly uptrend will then become active, and we will be able to long this pair safely, and aim for 1.3000 in the future. Let's see how price behaves, follow the reaction to key levels, and the market reactions to news events and you will be in good shape. Happy Easter! Ivan Labrie
by IvanLabrie
4