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The Swiss franc *might* go lower, but only so farThe Swiss Franc has always been one of my favourite currencies to trade because it abides by support and resistance lines... except when the SNB intervenes.... ouch that one hurt. In any case, what you are seeing here are arrows point up from very strong resistance lines stretching back several months. The A arrow points up from the weakest support, the second arrow points up from declining support and the I arrow points up from monthly support. Either way, the USDCHF will bounce up from one of these lines, though as a caveat, a break below and I'd be closing off all your CHF positions. RSI and CCI are overbought, a confirmation from the MACD would confirm buying opportunity. Selling CHF also pays overnight premium.
Long
by maccabean
EURCHF At Key Technical Level Prior to ECB MeetingThe Swiss franc has seen some action as traders move in and out of safe-haven assets, no matter what the Swiss National Bank implements (franc futures has a .82 correlation with gold). With the ECB hinting that more quantitative easing is possible ahead of the rate decision March 10, the SNB may feel obliged to intervene to stop any significant appreciation in the franc. Thomas Jordan, Governor of the SNB, has said that negative interest rates have their limit; so, probable line if action would be a direct FX intervention. Traders are not pricing in any significant change in monetary policy from the ECB, so that may cause the EURCHF to rebound from its oversold, intraday position. Price action is stagnating within a demand zone, and minor upside potential to 1.0935 and 1.0960 is seen leading into March. However, I don't foresee the SNB doing anything drastic (which may be highly dependent on the lengths the ECB is willing to go). I expect future near-term CHF strength, causing price action to test the bottom of the demand zone. If this breaks, expect the pair to trade lower to 1.0860. If the risk environment worsens, gold could trigger more safe-haven demand pushing EURCHF to 1.0830. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com Update status
by CommoditiesTrader
Trade of the day. Buy USDCHF. Oversold.This could be a very profitable trade. The way I see it is that the price is oversold, dropping to fundamental support. Now, this is important, if the SNB anticipates larger QE by the ECB, they will drop the interest rate further into negative territory. This could be a huge event as the SNB believes the currency is already severely overvalued. The SNB will hit the market like they did a year ago with this announcement. I recommend buy stops with stop losses below long term support.
Long
by maccabean
USDCHF: Massive downtrend failure screams longThe previous analysis on this pair failed and led to a massive paradigm shift in the markets, which struck me with clarity. I'll look for long positions in this pair on any chance that I get. The quarterly chart has an uptrend signal that will confirm by year end's close, as long as it's above 0.9324. There's resistance above, let's see how price reacts to it. I'll update with my entry once I'm in with sufficient reasons. If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
SLong
by IvanLabrie
2
USDCHF: SNB might suprise everyone again...soonI'll be entering shorts this week before the close, the potential is very good, even if only the 'local' trend signal goes in effect and hits the target. If this trend signal works, a larger 18 week decline will become valid, and we could expect a very sharp drop towards 0.75972. This is also illustrated by a modified Schiff Pitchfork that I drew using key highest low and lowest high pivots. You could use traditional highs and lows too, but I find the highest lows and lowest highs more telling, since they reveal what the last bastion of the buyers or sellers was in each leg. A very good idea derived from Tim West's teachings. Fundamentals are bearish for the dollar, and we also have the commercial futures traders on our side, on this and the Euro longs, so I think this setup is of considerably high probability. Should you take it, good luck! We'll need it when dealing with the SNB bag of tricks. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
USDCHF: Potential nested impulse - UpdateThere's an active daily time at mode uptred at play here, and the price seems to be forming a pair of nested impulses in EW terminology. This is secondary in my analysis but I suspect that we will see a correction take place, allowing us to enter a long position with excellent risk/reward tomorrow. The fibonacci retracement levels or the low volume support area below might stop the decline. I'll update with the setup, London might give more clues, hopefully not triggering a setup before I wake up. Good luck, Ivan. UPDATE: Correction almost complete! It looks like we might have an excellent buy opportunity soon. UPDATE 2: Entered and already closed 75% of the position. Looking to scale in on a retracement. Potential daily target:
Long
by IvanLabrie
11
FED POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR EURUSD (Dec Meeting)Hi All! As I did back in August with the september meeting, I have decided to create a possibility of different Scenarios for the EURUSD pair for the month of December. I have outlined 3 scenarios based on the price range seen and recheable so far this year, this would give you a good idea of where to buy, sell or hold positions if you are thinking about trading in Dec. As ALWAYS! please be careful what you do, this is not for beginners but Im sure it would be a great time to try a few things with demo money as well. In a nutshell... IF THE FED RAISE THE RATES - the question here is not will you?, or, will your not? The question is, how much? and for how long? - investors will have to digest the FOMC minutes to make sure they understand how much the FED is prepared to raise and what is it going to be the path of increases. in every outcome there is an idea of what would happen if the rate hike is symbolic, when I say Symbolic I mean so small that is just to show they are taking some action but not enough to make Institutional investors change their mind about the Euro. IF THE FED HOLDS ON THE RATE HIKE - this would just take us to the same place we are at the moment, important to watch that pivot line (green) because we will continue to pass over and below this line for a long time and only the ECB decisions on the EURO QE purchasing program will decide what moves the pair (and puntualities like Greece, migrant crisis and also fundamental news) IF THE FED DECIDES TO LOWER THE RATES - this is the less of all outcomes, chances of this is nearly zero and this is why I havent mentioned it on the chart but there still a possibility, if this happens, forget about parity, the Euro and other majors would instantly take over the dollar and we could see levels we havent seen for 2-4 years. Crazy eh? well... we know central banks can be crazy (remember SNB flash crash begining this year) So... here we go, no only the action of increasing will move the market, but also how much is increased and for how long, watch out for inflation and unemployment as these will be the triggers. any questions? - ask me here or on my twitter account @SolidSnakeUk89
by SolidSnake
1
A long term trade that will 100% pay off. GuaranteedAs Swiss franc is exposed to events in Europe (high correlation to EUR) plus negative interest rate that will likely increase, ie becoming more expensive to store funds in CHF, Swiss banks will likely become less and less of a safe haven as other currencies become more attractive or even perhaps Gold. Also, don't forget with new tax and bank secrecy laws, Switzerland is becoming less and less a destination for offshore funds. In any case, Switzerland has a manufacturing sector to protect and preventing the CHF to increase further will be a job for the SNB. On the other hands, the US economy is shaking off the winter blues and looks to increase rate in the next six months perhaps making it a destination for global funds as a carry trade.
Long
by maccabean
1
CHF: Index chartWeekly and daily paint a bearish picture for the Swiss franc overall. It's interesting to see how well time at mode has mapped the different moves, timing or predicting price and time levels. Next week after the close a weekly uptrend signal will have expired, but the interesting part is that the target has been exceeded and an interesting high might have been reached. I'm long GBPCHF, but might consider adding other short CHF trades next week. Negative rates, plus the SNB wanting to devaluate their currency is an interesting feature, for potential carry trades that might set up here. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
10
My trade idea for USDCHFOvervalued Swiss franc? On march 19th, 2015 SNB left benchmark interest rates @ -1.25% and -0.5% and -0.75% on deposits, to discourage holding investments in Swiss Franc. The bank believes that the Franc is overvalued and should continue to weaken overtime. The SNB revised down growth in the Swiss economy to 1% from 2%. They believe that a stronger Franc keeps inflation rates at its negative territory levels, which is not good for the economy. The SNB added that it will interfere in the FX market in case things go against the monetary policy. Federal Reserve Policy? The Fed is on its wheel to drive interest rates up by this year as Janet Yellen expects. I believe however that a rate rise this year might be too early, and could cause slow down the U.S. economy with fundamental figures showing hick ups that are blamed to be from bad weather conditions in January, the second quarter's data will suggest whether the blame on weather is valid or not. The first positive indication was the faster than expected US CPI. Even though I don't believe a raise in interest rates might happen this year, the overall trend believes it so we shall follow that or else we will get wiped out if we got stuck on our thoughts. Divergence This divergence in monetary policies suggest a great opportunity for us to profit on the long term by buying the USD and shorting the Swiss franc. Regardless of when the Fed will raise interest rates, it is closer to doing that than the SNB. If the Fed rises interest rates, investors will more likely shift from equity markets to money markets which will boost the USD. Percentage Gains/ Losses In 2014 the USD CHF offered investors an 11.4% return on Investment. If it was held for the whole year. In 2015 the pair fell by 4% until May. This fall could be a retracement for a higher bound. Chart - I personally like to trade price action, on medium term bias. - The green lines suggest major resistance level, that if cleared could take price to test the succeeding levels. - Red lines suggest major support levels. - The trend filter is green and suggesting an uptrend. -Prices tested the 200 moving average and pinned above it, without a daily candle close. This suggests a downside risk. - The 0.95282 level is an area of major resistance, if cleared we could test the 0.97, 0.98, 0.99 and finally the 1.00 round level. This would however take place by Q3 of this year. - Prices also cleared and closed above the 0.38 Fib level. -I believe that the USD have gained strongly over the course of this week, and it should rest before it could pass the first green resistance line. TRADE Target Price: 0.94233 SL: 1.924 TP: I don't set Take profits, as I leave prices to move with the trend, profits are locked in when the upward retracement reaches the 38% fib level.
Long
by hussein.ahmed
EURCHF: Confirmed daily buy signal, potential weekly tradeYou can see the projected targets in the chart. The daily signal got fired today when range expanded strongly out of the mode. I'll place a small market order now, and try to capture a retracement as a scale in. If the weekly signal triggers, we might be in the presence of a very large uptrend. You can follow Nick Coulby's work for more detailed wave counts. He's been following this pair with me for some time. Cheers to Anil Mangal as well, he's been in this trade for some time now, since the correction completed on April the 20th. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
EURCHF: Potential great long entryI had this chart inside my EURNZD roadmap chart, but decided to publish it to keep track of the moves as they unfold. Time at mode signals an uptrend, I decided to attempt labeling this with EW, but it was a pretty complex exercise, so I will adapt my friend's Nick Coulby's (www.tradingview.com) wave count to my time at mode chart for illustration. There's a nice clear wave 4th completion, it'd seem, in the form of a falling wedge C wave. A move below the wave 1 high would invalidate this uptrend, if it were to be an impulse, with waves 1 and 3 being equal, leaving the 5th wave a chance for either being an extension (and reaching the 1.618 level above) or a stubby short fifth, with extension in waves 1 and 3. I'll take profits partially when retesting the 0 level in my fib tool to make this a risk free hold.
Long
by IvanLabrie
6
NZDCHF: Monthly map - Potential long term NZD weakness aheadInformational chart only. If we cross the level price sits at confidently, we might retest lower areas, around the 0.63043 mark. I'll update with a shorter timeframe short entry. Currently in the middle of a very strong decline with no pause. Looks to be impulsive behavior after a long term consolidation. The triangle in CCI is wild speculation, but makes me think this consolidation phase is over. Among other factors, derived from observing multiple currency pairs.
by IvanLabrie
9
GBPCHF: intermediate term uptrendGentlemen, the SNB has done it again! As you can see, this isn't the first time their sudden intervention causes a disruptive gap which ruined thousands of people in one day. RIght now, there is a clear uptrend in place, showing new highs every 5 candles, and nice accumulation before sudden bursts of impulsive upwards action. There are hints at the possibility of the SNB buying back some Euros, which if they materialize, will fuel the ascent weakening the Swiss Franc vs the recently bullish Pound. If the Swiss National Bank does indeed pursue this route, then going long GBPCHF will be the ideal carry trade this year, as long as they don't modify their monetary policy and the BoE does hike interest rates as expected. I'll be looking at long opportunities only for the time being.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
Is the Swiss Franc to Blame for Gold's Pullback?The Swiss franc is lower on the day amid speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to actively weaken the currency. As you can see by the comparison, gold tracks the Swissy rather closely. Interestingly enough, gold's all-time high of $1,923 ended at about the same time the SNB decided to peg their currency to the euro. When the peg was first introduced, the single-largest daily inflow in the GLD occurred but had been wound down throughout the last few years. Traders matched that inflow into the GLD when the SNB pulled the plug on the peg. However, I think the SNB is playing with fire. They have already taken a 60 billion CHF hit to their FX reserves due to the abrupt end of the euro peg. Furthermore, it became too expensive to keep the peg on the euro, so the SNB will likely hint at intervention as a means to keep traders from piling into it. This could work in the short-term, but these methods usually do not have lasting effects. With a balance sheet of almost 90 percent of GDP, the SNB's bluff will likely be called out in the long-run. The franc has been a "safe" haven for investors, whether the central bank likes it or not. If global turmoil continues to strengthen, I expect the franc, and presumably gold, to increase throughout the year. Keeping in mind, there is a 40 percent weekly appreciation that has to be digested. The correlation should be watched further.
S
by CommoditiesTrader
13
Has the EURUSD-train left the station?Good question. A pretty weak currency, versus, clearly, the strongest. USDOLLAR is flying high, and the greenback has seen increases in 11 of the last 13 weeks. This is certainly reflected in the EURUSD which is dropping like a stone, and where there may be some time between significant setups, simply because of the speed of the drop. SNB’s stunt resulted in a further boost, which has pushed the price down below 1.1650 - the lowest price in 10 years. Momentum is so heavily bearish, and after SNB has pulled the peg, the largest bull in the EUR is gone. I have missed the train a couple of times, but with just a bit of positive announcements on Thursday from "Super Mario", and his friends, a general pullback in the EUR could easily happen. Here is the EURUSD one of the pairs I would look towards. The Friday (16/01) candle has formed a candle with a large lower shadow, while Monday's (19/01) candle, have formed an inside bar. This suggests, that this could be the next swing low, either due to profit-taking, or expectations for the ECB meeting on Thursday - or a combination of both. Whether or not the bulls will take momentum here, the next few days will tell. Should this happen, I do not think that the bulls will keep the momentum to break 1.20. This is a key level, combined with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, and probably, the 50ema will also come into play here. I expect that the bears will defend this level reasonably well, and therefore I look for 1.20 to jump on EURUSD train. If this scenario unfolds, I do not see why we should not fall to 1.14 and maybe even lower. Conversely, I think we should break above 1.25 before we can talk about a decent trend change, and I begin to consider buying. The break of 1.25, however, is reasonably unlikely within a reasonable time. Fundamental analysis is not my strongest side, but I'm afraid that expectations for the meeting on Thursday is too high, and if the ECB is not able to meet the expectations, EURUSD will fall further, and the train will move on. However, I am also very careful about jumping the gun. Either way, I look forward to the ECB meeting on Thursday. As always, further discussions, comments and feedback are always welcome. Happy Trading // Laban132
Short
by Laban132