A less risky way to play SNB interventionSNB is currently under pressure with the current attack of the 1.20 floor on EUR/CHF. Not maintaining this floor would represent a serious credibility risk for the Swiss central bank. According to recent comments from Danthine and Jordan they will do everything to maintain the floor even using "unconventional measures" (like negative interest rate or ultimately printing money).
Playing on EUR/CHF is now highly speculative and risky. One alternative to play an SNB intervention would be to go on a proxy pair, GBP/CHF looks relatively ideal.
Fundamentals:
SNB highly probable intervention, BoE about to hike the rates in 2015
Technicals:
Current bullish trend, price testing a strong support zone and the 200 periods EMA, the stochastic oscillator comes in confirmation too showing a limited downside potential. We have two possible entries materialized by supports lines 1.5110 and below 1.4973.
Trade setup:
Aggressive entry long limit @ 1.5110
Alternative entry long limit @ 1.4975
SL@ 1.4900
TP@ 1.58
Snb
EURCHF Long - triple (higher) bottoms at previous demand areaEntered EURCHF long at 1.2060 (76.4% of Sep H-L fib level - 1H bars seem to be adhering generally albeit with occasional false breakouts)
1.2050 was previous bid zone - triple bottom from Sep 14 onward
Also market seemed to established the floor since Q4 2012 after SNB's 1.20 commitment
Target 1.2110/20 area - between top of daily cloud (1.2110) and previous high in Sep (1.2117)
Stop loss right below Sep low at 1.2044
Risk:Reward = 1:2
Portfolio wise, also trying to balance out the heavy EUR short.
Do Swissies Know Something? | $USD $CHF #SNB #FED #Forex $EURFriends,
At this point, markets seem to have leveled off. In fact, USD started to rally, as it gains strength against most other currencies, except against the EURUSD, whose high of 1.38981 has remained unchallenged even after US markets closed.
A look at a reverse correlated USDCHF, my predictive analysis and forecasting system remains neutral for the time being, while a prop pattern has emerged to indicate a probable rallying from the current level.
I have defined a probable range of support (0.87522 to 0.87271), which should offer a significant support. A rallying from this range should concern the prospective or vested bear, unless price broke and closed below the lower value.
A bullish scenario opens to an immediate mod/high-probability primary target @ 0.89792, and a low-probability secondary target @ 0.91374.
OVERALL:
A prop pattern calls attention to a potential reversal at these levels. A reverse correlation with EURUSD or positive correlation with GBPUSD is worth the glance. However, other charts, such as XAUUSD and USDollar have also posted similar signal of probable reversal at current price levels. While a prop pattern offers a signal of a potential reversal against a forecasting system that remains bearish, the net objective directional bias remains NEUTRAL for now.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Prop Trader
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
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Disclaimer:
- All my predictive analyses, forecast and signals are based on unshared proprietary patterns, strategies and market research results, which shall remain unshared and unknown to you, the reader. So, do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster