SNOW
3/13/22 SNOWSnowflake, Inc. ( NYSE:SNOW )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $55.263B
Current Price: $180.42
Breakdown price: $185.00
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $231.00-$193.25
Price Target: $51.20-$48.80 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 111-120d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $SNOW 6/17/22 180p
Trade price as of publish date: $26.75/contract
SNOW price target after Disappointing Growth ForecastSnowflake is facing strong competition from Microsoft's Azure and Amazon's Web Services.
Snowflake expects product revenue for fiscal 2023 to grow between 65% and 67%, lower than 2022's 106%.
In Q4 SNOW posted total revenue of $383.8 million, beating analysts' average estimate of $372.6 million.
In 2021 they had 592Mil in revenue and negative earnings of 539Mil. The market cap was 81.075Bil yesterday.
SNOW Snowflake went public in September 2020 at $120 a share.
After the Disappointing Growth Forecast and a head and shoulders bearish chart pattern, my price target is $185!
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NOW failed to break neckline on head & shoulders= DEATH CROSS!!!Death cross officially printed last week, along with the Nasdaq. This is a SELL signal! Next stop $480. The PE has come all the way down to 491 lol. As multiples continue to compress on these high flyers this stock has a long road to go with many bounces and failed attempts to rally. Without help of the fed's perpetual 14 years of QE and artificially low interest rates these companies will have to learn to live within a budget without benefit endless free cash in this mother of all bubbles stock market casino!
SNOW poised to meltAnother money losing covid era IPO with failed double top. This company reports "earnings" on March 2. The last 3 annual reports have posted larger losses than the prior year. The era of fed induced stimulus and QE with bubblelicios low interest rates is over. This stock looks to be printing a death cross in the coming days same as NOW and CRM. Look out below!!
Snowflake Analysis 10.02.2022Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
NYDIG&Affiliate companies approved bitcoin Patrick Sells, the NYDIG's chief innovation officer, said the Bitcoin payment plan was aimed at letting companies offer a benefits package to prospective employees.
The New York Digital Investment Group, or NYDIG, has launched a benefit program allowing employees of participating companies to convert a portion of their paychecks into Bitcoin.
In a Tuesday announcement, the NYDIG said several firms involved with sports, entertainment and digital currencies would be among the first to offer the crypto payments, including Everbowl, MVB Bank, StretchZone, crypto analytics firm The TIE, crypto mining firm Iris Energy and Fertitta Entertainment — the conglomerate behind restaurant giant Landry's and the National Basketball Association’s Houston Rockets. Company employees who participate in NYDIG’s Bitcoin Savings Plan can choose how much of their pay will be converted into Bitcoin (BTC), with no transaction or cold storage fees.
NYDIG chief innovation officer Patrick Sells said the BTC payment plan was aimed at letting companies offer a benefits package to prospective employees interested in “protecting their financial futures.” According to a recent survey conducted by the firm, 36% of workers under 30 said they would be interested in receiving part of their salary in BTC, with roughly 33% opting for an employer offering payment plans in crypto as opposed to those solely in fiat or other benefits.
"Offering cutting edge benefits helps ensure that we are appealing to the new generation entering the workforce and allows us to attract and retain some of the best talent in the industry,” said Fertitta Entertainment owner and CEO Tilman Fertitta.
Related: Crypto salaries are becoming a popular way to attract young talent
Coinbase launched a similar offering in September for workers to deposit their salary payments directly to the crypto exchange, only requiring users to set up direct deposits through a supported payroll company on the exchange’s app, or through their company’s human resources department. A number of professional athletes also announced in 2021 that they would be using Strike or Cash App to convert some of their earnings into crypto.
SNOW: BOUNCE CANDIDATE?SNOW :
I put SNOW in the bounce candidate and potential continuation upward list. Why?
1. We retraced 50% of the move that started in May. This level is good to initiate a long trade because it allows you to place a stop loss not too far below the line.
2. Demark Sequential is on a 9 daily. (More details below on Demark indicators)
3. The chart looks like a big cup and handle and it seems that we are at the bottom of the handle. The top of the cup is 405. This one is very subjective though.
Depending on how markets open, I will look for a long entry . Swing trade .
My initial target will be 320-330, then I'll reassess. The success of the trade will depend on how Nasdaq behaves so I'll be careful and monitor the indexes closely.
If the trade fails, another interesting level will be around 268.
Note:
DeMark Indicators are designed to anticipate turning points in the market.
A Buy Setup occurs when there are 9 consecutive closes less than the close four days earlier.
Trade safe!
10-15% correction is possible..!All the information you need for entry, stop loss, and target is provided!
Reward to risk ratio 2!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
SNOWFLAKE ($SNOW) longNote:
- NYSE:SNOW
- High Tight Flag
- Hot sector
- Chart setting up nicely
- EMAs coming together
- Fundamentals are great
Disclaimer and Info:
- No guarantee for the correctness of information or calculations
- No advice or investment advice
- Fiscal Year ends January 31.
- All numbers in '000 US dollars (1.234 = 1.23 million USD)
Company profile from TradingView:
Snowflake, Inc. provides cloud data warehousing software.
It provides SQL data warehouse, zero management, and broad ecosystem products.
It offers data warehouse modernization, accelerating analytics, enabling developers and monitoring and security analysis solutions to federal government, financial services, healthcare, media and entertainment, retail and CPG , gaming, education and technology industries.
The company was founded by Marcin Zukowski, Thierry Cruanes and Benoit Dageville in 2013 and is headquartered in Bozeman, MT.
Main sources for data:
- Investor Presentation 3Q Fiscal 2022
- Trading View
- Own calculations
Customers (customers >$1M):
FY2021Q3: 3,554 (65)
FY2021Q4: 4,139 (77)
FY2022Q1: 4,532 (104)
FY2022Q2: 4,990 (116)
FY2022Q3: 5,416 (148) --> YOY Growth: 52% all customers // 128 % customers >$1M
Net Revenue Retention (NRR):
Net Revenue Retention (NRR) also known as Net Dollar Retention (NDR) is an important SaaS metric. NRR is one of the most important key KPIs from the software and service industry. Ultimately, it measures how much of the previous year's turnover was lost through layoffs and how much Annual Recurring Revenue ( ARR ) was gained through account expansion of existing SaaS-customers. The net effect of lost sales (revenue churn) and additional sales from received customers (account expansion) is the Net Revenue Retention.
In order to calculate the NRR, you need at least two comparison periods for the company. Typically, one compares the ARR of the previous year with the current value of the Annual Recurring Revenue. If the additional expenses of the existing customers can more than compensate for the loss of sales through terminations, one speaks of net-negative revenue churn or positive net revenue retention, which then takes a value of over 100%.
Calculation of the Net Revenue Retention (NRR) or Net Dollar Retention (NDR): Expressed mathematically, the NRR or NDR is the percentage of sales in a previous period or base period that could be realized in the current period. This includes additional sales from existing customers, cost reductions for customers and terminations. The net revenue retention rate can also assume values below 100%, which means that the customer cohort of the previous year spent less on average in the current year.
The goal of most SaaS-companies is therefore a net dollar retention of over 100, which would mean that the additional sales of existing customers could overcompensate for losses due to terminations (account churn) and budget cuts (revenue churn). If the NRR is above 100, i.e. the customer cohorts are spending more and more money and new customers can be won at the same time, software companies can grow particularly dynamically.
FY2022Q1: 168%
FY2022Q2: 170%
FY2022Q3: 173%
Non-GAAP Product Gross Margin:
FY19: 58%
FY20: 63%
FY21: 69%
FY22: 74% (est.)
FY2021Q3: 70%
FY2021Q4: 70%
FY2022Q1: 72%
FY2022Q2: 74%
FY2022Q3: 75%
Rule of "40":
The "Rule of 40" ( aka . "Rule of Forty") is one of the simplest and most important SaaS and software metrics. This KPI was developed by the US-based software venture capital fund Bessemer Venture Partners.
It tries to relate the growth and profitability of a company. The revenue growth and the free cash flow margin (also (non-GAAP) operating margin or adjusted EBITDA margin) are added as a measure of profitability. If the sum of the two values results in a value greater than 40 , empirical data are used to assume that this is a very healthy company. The rule of 40 is particularly meaningful for software or subscription companies with high gross margins.
The background to the relationship is that a company that is growing rapidly but is still losing money can be just as attractive or even more attractive than a company that is profitable but only grows more slowly. In addition, companies can often actively decide whether they want to give up profitability in order to grow even faster or save marketing costs and instead accept slow growth but deliver more EBIT .
At the same time, a situation in which a company is neither profitable nor grows significantly faster than 20% can quickly become threatening. Often these companies do not achieve sufficient economies of scale and operating leverage to be profitable and sustainable in the long term.
Therefore, the following applies quite casually: Either grow quickly or make a profit! If both of these don't work, the company often find itself in a dead end.
FY2021Q3: 88%
FY2021Q4: 93%
FY2022Q1: 95%
FY2022Q2: 96%
FY2022Q3: 112%
Sales Efficiency (aka Magic Number):
The "Magic Number" is a KPI of the sales efficiency of SaaS and subscription companies. It goes back to the venture capital fund Bessemer Venture Partners, which specializes in SaaS companies in the US.
To calculate the Magic Number, the newly acquired Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) is annualized and related to sales and marketing expenses.
Calculation: Specifically, you subtract the sales of the previous quarter from today's sales and multiply the difference by 4. Because the additional quarterly sales will accrue every year from now on, so it becomes ARR or annually recurring sales. This annualized turnover is now calculated from the marketing expenses of the previous period - because these have caused the increase in sales - and the result is a number that is usually between 0.5 and 2.
FY2021Q3: 1,14
FY2021Q4: 0,92
FY2022Q1: 1,00
FY2022Q2: 1,04
FY2022Q3: 1,36
If the magic number is below 0.5, there is probably no product market fit. No invest in marketing is needed.
If the magic number is between 0.5 and 0.75, you are probably spending the right amount in marketing and sales and the amount should rather be optimized operationally.
If the magic number is above 0.75 or even above 1, you should definitely try to spend even more money on acquisition, i.e. via marketing and sales.
SNOW: Time for a big move back to ATH?SNOW looks ready for a move. Daily close over 377.87 can send this to $392 and possible $405 with some volume. Don't think the great R:R is until a confirmation over 377.87. $375.29 you can use, but odds of it failing at 377.87 are high. If it gaps over, you could buy the gap fill in morning or buy gap support for a possible big move.