SNOW Snowflake Options Ahead Of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the Head and Shoulders bearish chart pattern:
or played the reversal last time:
Now looking at the SNOW Snowflake options chain ahead of earnings , i would buy the $150 strike price Calls with
2022-12-16 expiration date for about
$10.30 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Snowflake
Selling SNOW at trend of lower highs.Snowflake - 30d - We look to Sell at 179.69 (stop at 191.11)
Daily signals are bearish.
The primary trend remains bearish.
The trend of lower highs is located at 180.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 151.11 and 141.11
Resistance: 165.00 / 170.00 / 180.00
Support: 155.00 / 145.50 / 140.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
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SNOW WOLFE WAVE DAILYThere is a daily wolfe wave setup that triggered on November 11 on the day of CPI. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the green perforated line, as shown in the chart. Projected targets are defined by identifying the apex of the wolfe wave and projecting a vertical line toward the green perforated projection tgt which is extending from left to right; however, the apex does not converge and as a result, identifying price targets short term should rely on moving averages or open gaps. The next major moving average is the 200 day ma which is 180.
SNOW: Resistance Becomes Support with Earnings Gap UpWhen this company IPO'd it was the big stock of the year. Alas, there has to be more to a company than a cute name.
SNOW had its earnings report late in the season and it gapped up on the news. The gap jumped over resistance, so it is not likely to fill easily. Resistance becomes support for this type of gap. This can suggest that SNOW may be a company beyond recovery and into potential long-term growth.
SNOW: The sun looks to melt this awaySnowflake
Short Term - We look to Sell at 193.62 (stop at 220.84)
This stock surged after earnings report on premarket. We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. A move higher faces tough resistance and we remain cautious on upside potential. Selling spikes offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 132.14 and 120.00
Resistance: 194.00 / 240.00 / 320
Support: 130.00 / 110.00 / 80.00
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SNOWFLAKE-BULLISH OPPORTUNITYA short-term buy opportunity from Snowflake. The company lost more than 62% from its peak in November 2021 and is now trading around the $154 price level. The fundamentals for Snowflake are not good and a new test of the $110 support level may be expected in a long run. In the short term, the price may continue its uptrend to the 0.236 fibo or around the $180 price level.
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3/13/22 SNOWSnowflake, Inc. ( NYSE:SNOW )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $55.263B
Current Price: $180.42
Breakdown price: $185.00
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $231.00-$193.25
Price Target: $51.20-$48.80 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 111-120d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $SNOW 6/17/22 180p
Trade price as of publish date: $26.75/contract
SNOW price target after Disappointing Growth ForecastSnowflake is facing strong competition from Microsoft's Azure and Amazon's Web Services.
Snowflake expects product revenue for fiscal 2023 to grow between 65% and 67%, lower than 2022's 106%.
In Q4 SNOW posted total revenue of $383.8 million, beating analysts' average estimate of $372.6 million.
In 2021 they had 592Mil in revenue and negative earnings of 539Mil. The market cap was 81.075Bil yesterday.
SNOW Snowflake went public in September 2020 at $120 a share.
After the Disappointing Growth Forecast and a head and shoulders bearish chart pattern, my price target is $185!
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SNOW poised to meltAnother money losing covid era IPO with failed double top. This company reports "earnings" on March 2. The last 3 annual reports have posted larger losses than the prior year. The era of fed induced stimulus and QE with bubblelicios low interest rates is over. This stock looks to be printing a death cross in the coming days same as NOW and CRM. Look out below!!
Snowflake Analysis 10.02.2022Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
SNOWFLAKE ($SNOW) longNote:
- NYSE:SNOW
- High Tight Flag
- Hot sector
- Chart setting up nicely
- EMAs coming together
- Fundamentals are great
Disclaimer and Info:
- No guarantee for the correctness of information or calculations
- No advice or investment advice
- Fiscal Year ends January 31.
- All numbers in '000 US dollars (1.234 = 1.23 million USD)
Company profile from TradingView:
Snowflake, Inc. provides cloud data warehousing software.
It provides SQL data warehouse, zero management, and broad ecosystem products.
It offers data warehouse modernization, accelerating analytics, enabling developers and monitoring and security analysis solutions to federal government, financial services, healthcare, media and entertainment, retail and CPG , gaming, education and technology industries.
The company was founded by Marcin Zukowski, Thierry Cruanes and Benoit Dageville in 2013 and is headquartered in Bozeman, MT.
Main sources for data:
- Investor Presentation 3Q Fiscal 2022
- Trading View
- Own calculations
Customers (customers >$1M):
FY2021Q3: 3,554 (65)
FY2021Q4: 4,139 (77)
FY2022Q1: 4,532 (104)
FY2022Q2: 4,990 (116)
FY2022Q3: 5,416 (148) --> YOY Growth: 52% all customers // 128 % customers >$1M
Net Revenue Retention (NRR):
Net Revenue Retention (NRR) also known as Net Dollar Retention (NDR) is an important SaaS metric. NRR is one of the most important key KPIs from the software and service industry. Ultimately, it measures how much of the previous year's turnover was lost through layoffs and how much Annual Recurring Revenue ( ARR ) was gained through account expansion of existing SaaS-customers. The net effect of lost sales (revenue churn) and additional sales from received customers (account expansion) is the Net Revenue Retention.
In order to calculate the NRR, you need at least two comparison periods for the company. Typically, one compares the ARR of the previous year with the current value of the Annual Recurring Revenue. If the additional expenses of the existing customers can more than compensate for the loss of sales through terminations, one speaks of net-negative revenue churn or positive net revenue retention, which then takes a value of over 100%.
Calculation of the Net Revenue Retention (NRR) or Net Dollar Retention (NDR): Expressed mathematically, the NRR or NDR is the percentage of sales in a previous period or base period that could be realized in the current period. This includes additional sales from existing customers, cost reductions for customers and terminations. The net revenue retention rate can also assume values below 100%, which means that the customer cohort of the previous year spent less on average in the current year.
The goal of most SaaS-companies is therefore a net dollar retention of over 100, which would mean that the additional sales of existing customers could overcompensate for losses due to terminations (account churn) and budget cuts (revenue churn). If the NRR is above 100, i.e. the customer cohorts are spending more and more money and new customers can be won at the same time, software companies can grow particularly dynamically.
FY2022Q1: 168%
FY2022Q2: 170%
FY2022Q3: 173%
Non-GAAP Product Gross Margin:
FY19: 58%
FY20: 63%
FY21: 69%
FY22: 74% (est.)
FY2021Q3: 70%
FY2021Q4: 70%
FY2022Q1: 72%
FY2022Q2: 74%
FY2022Q3: 75%
Rule of "40":
The "Rule of 40" ( aka . "Rule of Forty") is one of the simplest and most important SaaS and software metrics. This KPI was developed by the US-based software venture capital fund Bessemer Venture Partners.
It tries to relate the growth and profitability of a company. The revenue growth and the free cash flow margin (also (non-GAAP) operating margin or adjusted EBITDA margin) are added as a measure of profitability. If the sum of the two values results in a value greater than 40 , empirical data are used to assume that this is a very healthy company. The rule of 40 is particularly meaningful for software or subscription companies with high gross margins.
The background to the relationship is that a company that is growing rapidly but is still losing money can be just as attractive or even more attractive than a company that is profitable but only grows more slowly. In addition, companies can often actively decide whether they want to give up profitability in order to grow even faster or save marketing costs and instead accept slow growth but deliver more EBIT .
At the same time, a situation in which a company is neither profitable nor grows significantly faster than 20% can quickly become threatening. Often these companies do not achieve sufficient economies of scale and operating leverage to be profitable and sustainable in the long term.
Therefore, the following applies quite casually: Either grow quickly or make a profit! If both of these don't work, the company often find itself in a dead end.
FY2021Q3: 88%
FY2021Q4: 93%
FY2022Q1: 95%
FY2022Q2: 96%
FY2022Q3: 112%
Sales Efficiency (aka Magic Number):
The "Magic Number" is a KPI of the sales efficiency of SaaS and subscription companies. It goes back to the venture capital fund Bessemer Venture Partners, which specializes in SaaS companies in the US.
To calculate the Magic Number, the newly acquired Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) is annualized and related to sales and marketing expenses.
Calculation: Specifically, you subtract the sales of the previous quarter from today's sales and multiply the difference by 4. Because the additional quarterly sales will accrue every year from now on, so it becomes ARR or annually recurring sales. This annualized turnover is now calculated from the marketing expenses of the previous period - because these have caused the increase in sales - and the result is a number that is usually between 0.5 and 2.
FY2021Q3: 1,14
FY2021Q4: 0,92
FY2022Q1: 1,00
FY2022Q2: 1,04
FY2022Q3: 1,36
If the magic number is below 0.5, there is probably no product market fit. No invest in marketing is needed.
If the magic number is between 0.5 and 0.75, you are probably spending the right amount in marketing and sales and the amount should rather be optimized operationally.
If the magic number is above 0.75 or even above 1, you should definitely try to spend even more money on acquisition, i.e. via marketing and sales.
SNOW: Time for a big move back to ATH?SNOW looks ready for a move. Daily close over 377.87 can send this to $392 and possible $405 with some volume. Don't think the great R:R is until a confirmation over 377.87. $375.29 you can use, but odds of it failing at 377.87 are high. If it gaps over, you could buy the gap fill in morning or buy gap support for a possible big move.
12/12/21 SNOWSnowflake, Inc. ( NYSE:SNOW )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Current Price: $371.24
Breakout price: $377.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $371.00-$358.50
Price Target: $400.00-404.00 (1st), $429.00-$433.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 49-53d (1st), 84-90d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $SNOW 2/18/22 375c, SNOW 3/18/22 400c
Trade price as of publish date: $29.40/contract, $28.00/contract
LET IT SNOW PUTSThere is a Bearish wolfe wave setup on the Daily time frame in SNOW that provided entry opportunity on Friday Nov 19. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the red perforated line, as shown in the chart. The projected target is 300 and then 295. The price is expected to reach these targets within 7 days. The orange wolfe wave pattern uses a different length input value and identifies price tgt up to below 300. The risk and reward for both wolfe waves are excellent.