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SPX500USD 2021 Mar 08 Week SPX500USD 2021 Mar 08 Week Red/Green = preferred entry | Grey = price rotation zones Yellow = test W = Although still bullish, but weakness is observed. D = Buyers came in strongly, testing 3844. Wait and see if there is price acceptance here. Another scenario is price coming down to test for supply first, then continue up. Do note the top has mushroomed over and we're still in the down channel. Keep SL tight if you're long. Like and Follow if you find this useful : ) Have a good trading week ahead!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by paradox677
Nasdaq Correction Time?The Nasdaq has been been enjoying a bull run for the last 12 years. The average market cycle is between 11-14 years (based on history). With imminent inflation in the US, I feel that this may be the end of this cycle. Commercial Real Estate is beginning to default at an alarming rate. Residential homes are extremely overpriced and near impossible to get. Still no state of the union address. The gov't also pushed back the update on the mortgage delinquency rate from March to June. Once everyone realizes that this current economy is built like a house of cards, I expect things to go down in a hurry. History usually repeats itself. I was too young to take advantage of the 09' crash. But i will be in position to take advantage of this crash. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DYOR
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Nutty_Trader
SPX - 3792 Bounce to ~4300 - I'm 4/4 in 2021, 100% Accuracy Rate"BTFDF" - Cathie Woods Fundamentals: 1) You can't price in $1.9 Trillion dollars, I don't care what you do. 2) The people getting the $1400 (including college kids cause dependent adults qualify now) are the same people who form tops. 3) Tax deadline day is April 15th. 4) Clear value stock rotation. Technicals: 1) Bounce off trend line drawn from the two daily lows of March 2020 and October 2020. 2) Trend line point is also convergence point with daily 50ma and 4hr 100ma. 3) From 1hr candles and lower; the RSI 30 oversold point has been beat repeatedly several times over these past weeks. Big funds do not sell bottoms, especially this over sold; this is retail paper hands getting shaken out by naive understanding of how bonds and business cycle works, especially the mis-understanding of how economic expansion stage begins. 4) Retail mania and frenzy has composed this market, a flat top does not represent a retail top for correction; blow off tops do. One Trillion, Nine Hundred Billion bottles of beer on the wall; One Trillion, Nine Hundred Billion bottles of beer... Take one down, and pass it around... One Trillion, Eight Hundred Ninety Nine Billion, Nine Hundred Ninety Nine Million, Nine Hundred Ninety Nine Thousand, Nine Hundred and Ninety Nine bottles of beer on the wall.
TVC:SPXLong
by dragon
4
Stocks Still Rearing from YieldsThe sudden and continued rise in bond yields have created a problem for Stocks. The S&P has retraced from the upper bound of our pseudo-megaphone pattern. Although we do have support at 3791, we appear to be forming a bear flag, and may break lower. There is a vacuum zone down to 3758, which it appears that the S&P seems to be gearing up to cross. The level 3758 is not only a technical level but it also intersects with the lower bound of our pseudo-megaphone pattern so we should see some some support there. We have a cluster of levels below that at 3749 and 3737, which should provide further support. If there is bull momentum, we should see resistance at 3847, which is about mid way between the upper and lower bounds of our chart pattern.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
S&P500 Weekly review - Bear with itThe ES1! Weekly chart's Dark Cloud Cover (as expected) ruined the early week bull rally and clocked a lower low at that (see the daily chart on the right panel for corroboration). The consequent weekly candle gives a bearish technical outlook with some commitment. The weekly RPM and MACD are both with bearish crossdown. Furthermore, the Net Non-commercial Interest is short and increasingly short (in the prior weeks). The Top 8 Traders are still net short, albeit not increasingly short. These form a picture of downside volatility and momentum for the coming week, looking for 3600, at the support of the megaphone widening wedge. The Daily chart on the right panel shows the engulfing breakdown late week and the technicals suggest enough momentum to follow through after an early week (and first day of the month) bounce. Watch out for the 3785 Lower Low breakdown level as it could "fall off the cliff" once it punches below 3785... particularly so when the Non-Farm Payroll numbers are due out on Friday. Stay safe the week ahead!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
Long on S&P 500During the last few days, both Cryptocurrency prices and US equity prices has been shaky and have dropped from their ATH (All-time-high). Reason being that there was uncertainty in leading up to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech. Many investors were speculating that interest rate might increase together with treasury yields because inflation of 2% is being met by the economy. So how does interest rate affects prices of cryptocurrencies and US stocks? If interest rates increases, US market will suffer because the cost of borrowing for big companies increases. On top of that, the returns on risk free investment, ie deposits with the banks would increases, therefore there will be an outflow of investments from cryptocurrencies and equities into these safer fixed income assets with the government and banks since interest rate increases and returns are slightly more attractive. However, Powell announced yesterday (12 hours ago) that economy still needs Fed support and pushes back on inflation worries. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday pushed back on suggestions that U.S. central bank support for the economy risked inflating a dangerous asset bubble, insisting the support was still needed and that investors were responding mostly to expectations for a successful recovery. Therefore, i believe this year will still rally for both cryptocurrency and US market and we will see a rebound from this dip soon.
SP:SPXLong
by Trader_hao
S&P500 record high with an ugly candlestickInterestingly, while media headlines today talk about an all time high, the candlestick pattern is missed totally, and I think does give a subtle warning. The long tail at the very top is an indication that this is a significant hurfdle to overcome IF the index is to push further. It is also telling us that there is a lot of sell pressure and should continue for the next day. Later on, we should see a lower high forming. MACD is supporting a retracement of sort, but the RPM supports a continued bullish outlook. Until then, clearly still bullish; just an early bump worth noting in my humble opinion...
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
5
Weekly Leading Indicators Part IIIn the second part of my leading indicator set, namely, TIPS, TLT, VIX and USD futures /DX... TIPS is giving an early warning of a sharp dip. TLT has no indication of a build up in bond demand, but in fact has a gap down bond dumping. Do watch this gap closely, as a close of the gap might signal a reversal. VIX is not yes bullish despite a recent episodic spike. This may happen again, otherwise it is trending slightly and slowly lower. /DX appears to be forming a base of sorts, but dropping (bullish for equities) in the near term. Looking out for a higher low formation here... The secodn set of leading indicators is similarly not aligned. No clear signal, barring surprises, for a retrecement/pullback.
AMEX:TIP
by Auguraltrader
S&P500 Weekly Pum-ChekWe are going so local in descriptive language today! No other word better describes the S&P500 weekly chart just now, other than Pum-Chek In local Singlish, this means punctured, or rather, out of air. And that is how the S&P500 appears technically. Allow me to explain... First up, the obvious giveaway here is the candlestick pattern... at the historical high candle, it forms the classical dreaded Dark Cloud Cover , and a more detailed description of this pattern is linked here . Furthermore, this pattern formed at the resistance of a Broadening Wedge or Megaphone chart pattern, suggesting a failure at resistance for some downside risk to the lower end of the pattern. Noting this, a Dark Cloud Cover is usually affirmed with a following bearish candle... let's see if this works out in the coming week. Secondly, noted that the trading volumes have been dropping lower since May 2020, and significantly so since November 2020 as the S&P500 continued weeks of historical highs. Again, even more pronounced divergence in price to volume since the start of 2021. There is a limit to the stretch of this price volume rubber band, and it will snap back further proportional to the stretch. Third, the Relative Price Momentum indicator (RPM, top indicator panel with colourful lines) has just turned down, and broke below zero. Fourth, the MACD is stalling in divergence to the series of historical highs, since November 2020. Again, this is not sustainable. Fifth, noted the decrease in Net positions of the Non-Commercials (second from bottom, orange line) as well as the Top 8 Traders (bottom panel, yellow line). Furthermore, these net positions are now short as the indicators are now below zero. A month ago, it appeared that a bearish engulfing would have done the job tanking the market in retracement, but no, it formed a massive bullish engulfing for further upside to set recent record highs. In doing so, more indicators are flagging more obvious bearish divergences, and when this comes to settlement, it can get very ugly for a quick and short period. Arguably, we are coming up to the very well known most bullish months of the year ... being March and April, so there are two very possible polar outcomes: A. a short and sharp deep retracement occurs and resolves within a couple of weeks; or B. the bearish divergence continues as new historical highs are pushed forward As the proverbial " It ain't over till the fat lady sings " comes to play, I am left watching in awe and anticipation when the same lady will break out into a bear dance. Stay healthy, stay safe, manage your risks well... both in the pandemic environment and in the market. Have a good week ahead...
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Surprise! S&P500 still defies gravityCandlestick pattern wise, it looks pretty bullish. Breaking upwards for the week with a small marubozu. So bullish until further notice, and I would still be wary. Here is why... 1. Relative Price Monentum (RPM) is crossing downwards (although MACD is crossing up!) 2. Top 8 and Non-commercials Net positions are more bearish than week ago. Almost as if this current bull run is retail driven. Let's see... bullish, cautiously and until confirmation seen for bear case.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
10
S&P500, and the Chinese Lunar New YearThe S&P500 appears to be in a bind... or rather, in a triangle, with attached conditions. You see, in 2021 thus far, we see that the S&P500 rallied and consolidated in a triangle in early Feb and flew off the handle on a rally that recently stalled, just before the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY). Thus far, the February rally had been running on a bearish divergence on technical factors (See the PMI (lower panel) and MACD (lowest panel)). While all is well and (seemingly) bullish in the year of the Ox (bull), Price range of the S&P500 is now consolidating in triangle, and within a tight range. This tight range consolidation appears to coincide with the First Day of the Chinese Lunar New Year. This indicates to a model where a lot of the money in the market has an Asian source. And when Asia is pretty much shut down during CNY, everything, including market liquidity and volatility slows. This is a far out model projection, but one I think is nonetheless significantly plausible. So, now we wait... for breakout or breakdown. PS. I also noted that the Crypto market is stalling on low volumes, similar background model projections appear too.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
4