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A Decade Review of the S&P500 (SPX): Market MilestonesHello Traders and Investors! Here I show a clear overview of the bumpy ride we had over the past decade in the stock market. The leading indicator for our index is the SNP500. We are entering possibly another rocky ride with the current elections, but there is one thing that we can learn from history: we should always be calm, disciplined, collected, and most importantly, buying the dips. 2009 Bull Market vs. History The 2009-2019 bull run topped the nearly 10-year bull run of the 1990s. The bull run that started in Oct. 1990 and lasted 113 months, while the 2009 bull run is going on 127 months! Only one other bull market has lasted longer than seven years, and it was the post-World War II run that started in 1949. In terms of returns, the 2009 bull market has the longest streak but it remains in second in terms of the best return. The 2009 bull market has generated a 330% return since the March 2009 low. The bull market of the 1990s saw the S&P 500 post a 417% return over its nearly nine and a half years. Meanwhile, the bull market following the Great Depression is close behind our current bull market. The Great Depression bull market started in June 1932, lasting 57 months, with the S&P 500 posting a 325% gain over that time. The most important thing is, all bull markets have given great returns. Major Moves of This Bull Market Some of the biggest and scariest drops during this recent bull market have been attributed simply to surging investor fear. This includes the 2011 anxieties over the spread of the European sovereign debt crisis. It also includes the most recent market plummet in the fourth quarter of 2018. Much of this massive drop was caused by fears of a global economic slowdown, a U.S.-China trade war, and rising U.S. interest rates. We also had the unexpected event of COVID19, which brought us down to severe lows in a short amount of time - yet was followed by an unexpected 100%, and ultimately led to ATHs. What's Next for the Bull Market (Elections?) The big question now, of course, is whether this 10-year rally will continue. Bull markets end with recessions, and while we've seen many bumps on the road to where we are now, the stock market has managed to recover (at least eventually) each and every time - including the current COVID19 case. There will always be serious risk factors and fears that pervade markets. Whatever happens, the most important thing is, there can always be firsts. History is never indicative of present action, but we can see rhymes. The major rhyme here is that that the stock market has continuously gone up over the past century. Late in 2018 was a rather severe example of this. But we don't believe this bull market, though it's been exceptionally long, has run its course just yet. Many economists still see growth in the economy and aren’t expecting a recession anytime soon. Unemployment continues to fall and the recent corporate tax rate cuts can help keep spending elevated - especially with either Biden or Trump entering the picture. For more information on presidential elections, check out my previous post on the past election cycles that had an effect on price: Trade Safe. X Force
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SP:SPXLong
by XForceGlobal
22
S&P500 Weekly chart has a Lower High!As expected weeks ago, the S&P500, and the futures ES1! , showed a mini-rally, and a very suspicious one at that. The last week not only fell flat, it closed down with a bearish candle for the week. Technically, MACD has crossed down and remains down trending, albeit slightly. The Top8 traders Net Positions (yellow line, lower panel) had already broken down of support line. And this week, the Non-Commercial Net Positions (orange line, lower panel) just broke down of support line too. A Lower High is clearly made and anything less than 3200 is a Lower Low, following the Lower High. Overall, this is indicative of downside risks as head winds pick up speed, accentuated by the uncertain US elections. Just about into the window, the S&P500 futures weekly chart get into an ominous technical situation. Which may indicate a Biden/Democrat win expectation outcome. Watch the breakdown of support levels of 3300 and 3200, giving way would be rather disastrous. In any case, volatility cycle is back!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1989-2020: SNP500 Presidency Timeline - What's Next?This post is to show you an overview of how the SNP500 has grown and declined over the past 4 presidencies, starting with Bush Sr. (1989), and now currently, President Trump (2020) - respectively. We can see some very interesting commonalities between the red and blue. Just a disclaimer, this is not a political post, so please keep the comments mature! This is a mere observation and analysis to shine some light on why I think it does not matter what political party you are as the main goal is to profit within the market. Some interesting commonalities that I am seeing between the US Presidents in red is that we have seen an incredibly peculiar V shape recovery. These V shape recoveries usually occur after a sudden drop within the market and recover faster than expected after some unexpected event within the timeline. Such examples include the 2001 Dot Com Boom, 2008 Financial Crash, and now the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Some interesting commonalities that we can see with the blue presidents is that there has been record growth by the time they have left office, usually surpassing well beyond 100% growth in the SNP500 Index. As much as I would love to go into all of the different reasonings and policies that each president has implemented during their time in office, I feel like that would create some discrepancies within the comment section. This is just a pure observation! The whole point of this post is to say that we should not care what political party we are, rather, focus on how to profit the market via ideological positioning within the timeline. We can see that if we bought the dip during anytime of these presidencies, we would have profited by holding! BUY THE DIP. Trade Safe. X Force
TVC:SPX
by XForceGlobal
32
S&P500 bullish with limited and “sus” upsideThe weekly S&P500 futures ES1! chart at first sight and impression is bullish. Candlesticks pattern for the last three weeks collectively show a rebound momentum that ended the week at the top of the momentum, expecting to continue. The historical high appears to be challenged soon. Albeit the MACD is crossed down, the continued momentum may trigger more bullishness beyond its previous high, turning the MACD positive. Looking over to the Non-commercial and Top 8 Traders net positions, a slightly conflicting outlook prevails... the Top 8 traders net positions have a knack for indicating a downtrend, or at least the start of one, compare the time lines as far back as Oct 2018. And this happens with Non-commercial net positions rising bucking the trend, and being a laggard. Currently, there is a relatively larger net short in the Top 8 traders and this is “very sus” of the current rally... meaning, it could be a while before it breaks a higher high, or more probably form a double top. Cautiously bullish.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
4
UPDATE: S&P500 5-3-5 ZIGZAG CORRECTION (4H)Just an update to my post from Sept 30th. Based on the movements since then, and the fact that we have reached the previous high of about $3430, I no longer believe we are in a 3-3-5 Flat type correction. Instead, based on my updated count, I believe we are in a 5-3-5 Zigzag correction. So, I am still expecting downside on the larger time frame as I still believe we are on the final leg (Wave 5) of an Expanding Triangle which may terminate just above $2000. For the short term, I believe this upside move (Wave A) will terminate around $3475 and head down towards $3450 (Wave B). We should see another move upwards again terminating above or at $3475 to complete Wave C. At this point, I would start bulking up on short sells to ride the longer term downside move. If at anytime we breach the ATH, I will have to reassess.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS
1
Why the Biggest Crash Is Nearing (Beyond Fundamentals) - Part 2The SPX (SNP500 Index) monthly chart has been giving clear signals in the past with regard to overall changes in trend. With all of those trends taken into consideration, we can see an extremely similar situation with the current price action. As we also take into account for current political, geopolitical, COVID-19, and tech stock inflation factors, we can assume that no rally is sustainable without a correction. Keep in mind, this is only an observation by using the simple bearish and bullish divergences. A bearish divergence occurs when the price action by candles, shows a higher high, while the oscillator for the RSI shows a lower high - indicating that price momentum has died off. I also show in the chart that it's possible to identify key points when the market is showing demand for the stock market even if it's in a downtrend, where the general public might assume the major crash is coming - this is a bullish divergence - The 2008 recession was signaled by a clear bearish divergence on the weekly, and even the monthly. This took months to play out, but with each rise, you could have bought in and still profited with a high average. Following the financial crisis, the 2009 bottom and reversal into a 9 year bull market was signaled by a strong bullish divergence on the weekly. - When many thought the market was crashing in early 2016, a strong bullish divergence showed that selling momentum was done and that a bullish continuation would resume. This was due to the confirmation of a bullish divergence on the price action. It meant that there was CLEAR demand for cheaper prices. Current Sentiment shows that a large bearish divergence on the monthly chart is forming and we may be in a bear market until proven otherwise.
TVC:SPXShort
by XForceGlobal
14