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S&P Stops 1 Point From Socrates Projection Made January 2016 Source: ArmstrongEconomics.com COMMENT: Congratulations Marty. We closed out the year less than one point away from your maximum (Tech 3) SPX 2016 target of 2239.8038 that your computer established on January 1st, 2016. That’s impressive. I never thought we’d see that number back in January or February, but fortunately your computer harbors no emotion and no bias! Keep up the great work and thanks for all you do. REPLY: The S&P500 indeed closed in cash at 2238.83 one tick below our target resistance we published back on January 28th, 2016 at 2239.8038. The broader trends cannot be altered. It is like trying to make a u-turn in an aircraft carrier versus a speed boat. This does warn of caution for it was 7 years up in time.
SP:SPX
by Carl_G
2
VIX: Short term viewI'm watching VIX closely here. We might get a buy signal as soon as we hit 17.2. Additionally, there's a time and price target for VIX, that if not met in time, signals a buy opportunity in the S&P500. The signal consists of the following: If 18.5 isn't hit by Friday or sooner we will get a bullish signal as soon as VIX makes a new daily low after Friday's close. So, keep an eye on VIX in the next few days, very critical spot right now. To go long, we'll need more confirmation, if these two buy signals were to materialize, but I'll leave those cues to my students and clients. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:VIX
by IvanLabrie
6
NASDAQ TOPPED OUTThere are 2 parallel line/CHANNELS. 1) RED line & Light GREEN line . (SOLID) 2) ORANGE line & Deep GREEN line. (DOTTED) NASDAQ broke the number 1 CHANNEL even though it made a all time high. In next few days/weeks It will break the 2nd dotted CHANNEL. Which may or may not create a new high but people will thinks it's a buy time. Honestly it's proving that market is getting weaker. And I would short it. Once it breaks the DOTTED GREEN LINE then FULLY SHORT TILL IT REACHES 3000 support zone.
NASDAQ:XNDXShort
by sum1
SPY: Smart money bought the dipThe VIX index shows us that the smart money actively bought the dip from the Sept. 12th, to yesterday's high. This range gives us a long lasting support/resistance level that the market will acknowledge in the future, and that can serve as guidance for us as well. If we see a breakout from here onwards, and we manage to stay above this range, upside is highly likely. There are a few angles we can take, when looking at the daily $SPY chart structure. From a 'Time at Mode' trend analysis perspective, the accumulation pattern from the 2016 low to today lasted 13 weeks, then we took off from that level and actually hit the top target, so now we need to see if the market is strong enough to trend even higher from it. To confirm this, we need to see a new 13 week+ accumulation level, ideally, before taking off, and considering we have 8 weeks at the top level, that would leave us waiting in a sideways range until the end of October. Now, it could also happen that we rally from this 8 week level once we break above it, but this would signal exhaustion in the trend (probably a huge short squeeze causing a rapid move), which would imply that this could be the last rally before a move down back to the 13 week mode from where we took off, which is around the 207 mark. This top could materialize within 8-9-10 weeks from the breakout above 217.36, putting a top after November 18th-December 2nd (which makes a lot of sense considering the date of the elections and the next FOMC). If we proyect a target based on this 8 week range, we can obtain two distinct figures, which we can also contrast to my longer term projections. Targets for the last 8+ weekly range above: 225, possibly 235. Long term uptrend targets if by October's close we don't retest 210: 235-250. In the short term, we look to buy at market, and buy dips towards 214.73, with all stops under 214.73. If we see 218.43 hit within 3 days we're in excellent shape for a rapid rally. If we don't we also have to see if we hit 217.92 by or before Sept. 29th. Short term risk comes from the OPEC meeting on the 27th which could create volatility, with my expectation of crude being sideways for the year, so we have keep this in mind. If we don't retest this target on time, it means we can go back down to 214.59 before rallying again, but I doubt it. Keep an eye on the RgMov speed line signal, if and once we break it, we'd be fairly safer on the long side. There you have it folks, you know what to look for, and how to trade from here onwards. Good luck, and if you have questions or are interested in learning more about these methods, contact me. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie
2
SH: Hedging my portfolio with SH longsI reccomend purchasing $SPY puts, and/or going long SH at market open tomorrow. We can use a stop loss at 38.36, which is rather tight but safe, and go short risking 0.5-1% of the account. All in all, the range expansion validation target failed to confirm the bullish momentum in SPX, so I'm inclined to revert back to shorting it. We might be soon to validate the $DJIA terminal pattern from related ideas too, lower probability, but still within the realm of probability. That being said, I don't want to close my longer term fundamental/technical stock longs, so, I choose to protect my exposure with $SPY puts, and $SH longs. All in all, factoring in the dividends, and the speculative shorts and puts, there is extremely low risk in holding the trades for longer, even during this pre-election period and beyond. Good luck with the BOJ today, and tomorrow with FOMC, trade safely. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SHLong
by IvanLabrie
1
ES SPX AnalysisEs is very far away monthly demand zone (1959.25-1794.75) but inside of a weekly supply zone (2105.25-2079.75). However it just created a daily original demand zone at 2091.75-2073.50. In these conditons, we are inside of a weekly zone where previously sellers had their strenght but the daily original demand zone may give us a difficulty going downard. We can follow 2 scenarious here; 1- Black: if the price manages to break above weekly supply zone, we can be willing buyers at original daily demad zone 2- Red: if the weekly zone gains momentum towards south and manages to break below 2073.50, we can look for a newly daily supply zones being formed to become a seller. tradewithcan.blogspot.com.tr twitter.com
CME_MINI:ESM2016
by Can.Yildirim
SPX500 DAILY chart - signs of toppingTHE END OF THE 2ND BAT / W? - .786 fib retracement from our highs since the 225 tick move down in August (2116.75) - Top of our "tidy channel" - Smaller green candles each rising day shows weakning momentum, doji showing indecision - Loads of price action between 2100 and 1800: - As of now, short at the top of this channel, long at the bottom, unbiased in the middle - Expecting the unexpected on a day-day basis, though short for now - RSI and MACD have reached levels that were last seen in our October rally - In the days following these technicals: - The RSI took 8 days to get to it's "happy medium" at 40 - The MACDs crossed 3 days later, beginning their descent down to 0, and eventually -48, converging only twice - The two convergences of the MACDs were lower highs, followed by lower lows, watch for a similar pattern should we stick in this "tidy channel" - Keep in mind, the daily 200ma isn't our strongest, and given a couple tests can be punctured, as seen between October and January and as always, please feel free to discuss :) happy trading!
SP:SPXShort
by AwareBear
MACRO VIEW: S&P500 REESTABLISHES DOWNWARD RISKIN OUR PREVIOUS IDEA ON SNP WE STATED THAT THE INDEX CANCELLED DOWNWARD RISK, AS IT TRADED ABOVE 1ST STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM 1-YEAR AND QUARTERLY MEAN AT ABOUT 197 HOWEVER, MARKET PROVED US WRONG! PRICE HAS FALLEN BACK BELOW THE KEY LEVELS, THUS IS NOW OPEN TO MORE DOWNSIDE AT THIS STAGE WE CAN ONLY CONCLUDE THAT THE TRUE CANCELLATION OF DOWNWARD RISK WILL BE ONLY TRIGGERED BY PRICE TRADING ABOVE 1-YEAR AND QUARTERLY MEANS, NOW CONVERGED TOO AT 205
AMEX:SPYShort
by Killy_Mel