Descending patterns can be seen in the S&P 500 Trading Setup:
There is a Trading Signal to Sell in SPX500 (4h)
Traders can open their Sell Trades NOW
⬇️Sell Now or Sell on 5170.0
⭕️SL @ 5257.0
🔵TP1 @ 4871.0
🔵TP2 @ 4700.0
🔵TP3 @ 4550.0
What are these signals based on?
Classical Technical Analysis
Price Action Candlesticks Fibonacci
RSI, Moving Average , Ichimoku , Bollinger Bands
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SPY Right On TrackAs stated in this weekends video update, I expected us to retest the top of the red channel first, with potential to drop back inside the channel and test the bottom. The middle yellow channel is also a less likely possibility. I don't think we'll get down to the green again until AFTER we hit are WAVE 5 target and also, Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern target of 570. This should be hit sometime on or just before September of 2024. ...Then the crash.
Combined US indexes suggest a cotinued over-extensionThe Combined US indexes are clearly in bearish divergence, as previously described. However, it appears that there is a thin underlying technical and funding support to push this index(es) into the Fibonacci target over the next couple of weeks till the end of April.
A trajectory of the expected retrace to run scenario is drawn in light yellow, to the upside target where the green ellipse is.
Watch for breakdowns below supports and no recovery. Otherwise, this looks unbelievable, but it is a sucker's rally really.
Tread and trade with caution...
S&P-500 E-Mini: Full Fibonacci SchematicsThis is a completely full and completed schematic of CME's E-mini S&P 500 Contract. This contract started in 1997 so there are decades of data not accounted for on the real chart. However, these are just as viable and important as the Standard & Poors 500 Indice. Let us take a look at the separate (chronological) boxes and understand what they are...
#1 is VERY IMPORTANT as this has the first pair of Fib Spikes for ES1 which are the red and white lines coming across the chart. ALSO, we see an extension from the COVID low ( YELLOW ) and this extension exactly determined the high at 4800 and the approximate bottom.
#1 and #3 also have two up schematics in RED originating from the local low from 3500. These are VERY IMPORTANT SCHEMATICS IN 1 and 3.
#2 and #4 are the first two pairs of Fibonacci Extensions for ES1. In both, we have fib forks. In #4 there are 2 of the forks. ( yellow and white )
#3, #5, #6, and #7 are the start of the next structured schematic. #3 contains the second set of fib forks for ES1. 5, 6, and 7 are all from the same structure but have completely different schematics.
#7 Contains a very important schematic of Fib Forks stemming from the inception of ES1. (YELLOW)
#8 is a formation from the COVID lows of 2020. We see the third set of Fib Spikes/Forks on ES1 here and also a Fib Schematic too. One piece of the schematic is in #1 in YELLOW and is a very important extension. It belongs in #8 but I have it in #1 because it has shown its utility.
Combined US Index potential breakdown imminentHere is how I see it...
1. MACD Bearish divergence on both MACD and VolDiv and being extended further, increases probability of a retracement happening;
2. Sequential counts completed... retrace ent could begin within the next 5 candles;
3. Candlestick pattern shows a toppish doji;
4. SG10Y heads up for volatility and retracement incoming,
So there... heads up!!! Going down for a good bit.
sharp fall is expected in global marketI analyzed s&P500 index today but it includes all of global markets.
dollar index's power is gaining strongly.
Biden's economic strategy with china seems not working well and USA and China's bond are too tight since 2008 financial crisis. the second possible Lehman brother's crash is on the way.
I don't know which banks will lead the crash but this time it will be wider and wild.
MACD is getting weaker and Russia's sharpy raising interest 350bp hikes is also the issue.
The too much unsolved disasters are on the way which is not good for all traders.
Higher high, the Lower low.
SPX Relief BounceBullish RSI divergence on the daily and many of the hourly indicators.
VIX on an extremely bearish RSI divergence on the daily too.
I think we'll see a bounce, which will look like a breakout out of the falling wedge, only to be crashed back down again.
There's still a gap at 4570 which you would expect to be filled too!
Not trading advise, just an idea.
My trading will revolve around this scenario however.
ES 4H Analysis ES experienced a remarkable surge in the past week. However, we've returned to the crucial breakout and retest range of 4400-4430. For the rally to persist, it would be ideal for ES to have a moderate retracement and maintain demand in the vicinity of 4325-4340. While the price might continue its upward trajectory without a pullback, a measured retracement would be a positive sign. It's essential to remember that we remain in a declining channel and are approaching a vital zone characterized by the breakout, retest, and trendline resistance. Anticipate inconsistent and sluggish price movements (cooling period) before either a continuation or a reversal.
Key levels to monitor:
Resistance: 4400-4430
Support: 4325-4340
Combined US Indexes Bounced UP!Heads up that there is a significant development in the market structure, as observed by the last two weeks of activity.
Previous week, the weekly candle broke down two support lines, and closed well below. In addition, there was support from the TD Sequential counts for a downward momentum. This was also corroborated by the MACD and the VolDiv.
However, despite the technical indications, the market movement was totally opposite that started with a gap up, and ended with strong upside momentum. There are two very clear indications of a trend change:
1. The opposing candlestick is large and closed above the last six close; and
2. The TD Sequential reversed and started the opposing Setup.
Taken together, this are the first indications of a real trend change.
Next, this would need to follow through, and break above the trendline, and then the marked resistance.
Dxy Dropped. VIX Dropped. You Know What That Means?Traders,
SPY has bounced exactly as the charts had shown us it would do. I will briefly discuss what we can expect now in the weeks ahead as we continue our move towards the target of our blowoff top.
We will also look at a few of my short plays. I will discuss what I was thinking in entering and what I expect now.
I was stopped out of the NVDA play and will update my spreadsheet soon! BTC and SOL shorts are still on and SOL is well into profit.
Stewdamus
SPY (Stocks) Should See a Nice Bounce This WeekTraders,
As mentioned in several of my previous posts and last video, SPY has now reached its downside target. This level at 410 provides strong support and correlates with our level of support on the RSI. I expect this week to be an up week for the S&P 500 and the stock market in general.
Best,
Stew
SPY Has Now Hit Its Target Down of 410. Now We Bounce.Traders,
We have been watching for this target to be reached for a few weeks now. Today we hit it. And just as I suspected, our RSI cooperated and synced with the price support, hitting its support at the very same time. Strong support in price levels conjunctive with strong support on the RSI means that the probability of a bounce next week is highly likely.
Best,
Stew
S&P-500: All Fibonacci SchematicsThis concept is known as Fibonacci Clustering. (many fib sets on eachother)
All Schematics have both Support and Resistance for future swings.
I will add more images below for you so you can visually understand what the Support and Resistance stems from.
Go to the linked idea for extra details if you want.
SPY 410 Target Now ConfirmedTraders,
A couple of weeks ago you'll remember I expected a bounce off of our 200 day SMA which coincides with the bottom of my channel, making a strong area of confluence and support. But I wasn't sure if that was the end of our drop? Turns out, after testing the underside of our neckline for a patent classic retest, we have now broken below the 200 day SMA and channel. Tomorrow will provide confirmation. As of now, I will say that our $410 target down is certainly in play. And look how it coincides with the RSI! We should hit 410 right about the time the RSI is also finding its support on our long-trending touch and go.
Best,
Stew
Combined US Indexes BROKE DOWNThe last week proved to be the straw that broke an important support level, to close the week at a recent low. This is very significant as it is the first indication of downward momentum, having bounced off the same support three prior weeks.
MACD appears to be deteriorating again in the past week, and the VolDiv is definitely not improving.
What this is projecting is that there is more downside to follow, and if it breaks the next support levels, there would be a strong downward wave as technicals would have aligned by then.
Heads up... likely going down further...
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VIII - Here the bear!Back to this set of chart overlay...
So, it is where it isand the SG10Y Govt Bond yields are again rocketing. This is yet again to push the SPY further down. Combine this with the double top seen recently; probabilities stack up for more downside into November.
Standard & Poor's 500: Full Schematics through FibonacciThis Full Fibonacci Layout is a rendition of my previous S&P idea. This one includes all angled extensions. The Pattern is very easy and clean to see and recognize. One must look for Support and Resistance. #1 and #2 are easier than #3 to visualize but all of them are correct...
Combined US Indexes slammed furtherPreviously mentioned that the supports are being broken. It gave way after an expected bounce. The dip that followed came with confirmation technical signals as well as a lower low… suggesting that there is downward momentum still. Saving grace lies with a pullback rally to end the previous week just above the support line. However, this appears to be futile, with shallow bullish bounces expected, and a close below the major support line.
Thing is this… there should be a close below the line and it needs to hold below for another three weeks to firm up more downside. But a rally back up above that critical support (then turned resistance) would be a good bullish rally to look for, albeit later in the year end/beginning.
Next four weeks should see at least two weekly closes below support.
In line and in support of this indication, TIPS and TLT, with JNK have led the markets by pushing further new lows of late.
Heads up.
Combined US Indexes bounce!Just noted that the combined equity index chart showed an interesting bullish setup.
The downtrend has been a little stronger than (probably) warranted, and now a sign is showing a probably bounce off a support level. Support broke and the next day rebounded to recover. This formed the bullish Piercing Line Pattern and it reclaimed the support that was broken only the previous day. Technical indicators are showing bullish divergence in alignment as well (green arrows).
Looks like time for a rebound. What happens next depends on how robust this bounce is, and if it forms a higher low, or just reverses to breakdown further again.
Heads up!
H&S on SPY active. Will $410 target be hit?Traders,
A strong dollar (11 weeks straight of green candles) and an elevated VIX has helped to trigger a break of this H&S neckline on the SPY chart. The pattern is now playing out but we are on support on the RSI chart where we can usually expect a bounce. Additionally, we have strong support at the 200 day ma just below us. Our target on this H&S is 410. The big question is will we reach that target or will the bottom of my channel which coincides with the 200 day ma catch us before falling that far?
Best,
Stew
Will this H&S on the SPY play out?Traders,
In yesterday's post, I hinted at the fact that it looks as though SPY's upward trend, irrational as it may seem, will continue, fulfilling my blow-off top thesis. I still believe this to be true. However, along the way up, there will be obvious pullbacks.
We now have what looks to be a completed H&S pattern formed on SPY. Currently, we are testing this neckline support. Need confirmation to know whether it will be a break or not. Tomorrow we should find out. Till then, I am watching this along with the DXY (dollar) closely.
If the dollar breaks its overhear resistance, we'll also have our answer here. This head and shoulders pattern on the SPY should then continue to play out. Watch both of these indicators closely to find more clues on further price direction in U.S. stocks and crypto.
Until the next update, best on all of your trades!
Stew
SPY (Stocks) looks to continue uptrendTraders,
For the last year you have heard me preach this blow-off top. So far, we've nailed it. Today, the FED decided to continue the pause. No surprises here and it turned out to be a non-event in the market. The FED knows that they are "this close" to breaking everything. Macro-economically, we are on the brink of disaster both nationally and globally. Many people know this both logically and instinctively. Still the market will go against all odds and price stocks irrationally. This is happening. And my blow-off top is playing out perfectly!
The dollar has had 9 straight weeks of green candles. Time to take a rest.
The VIX hit a two year low this last week and remains suppressed.
Dollar down + VIX down = Markets UP!
Additionally, you can see from a technical perspective indicators that continue to support my blow-off top thesis:
Notice Elliot Wave. We are on the final wave now.
Notice that trendline (wave 5). We are still above that.
Notice Ichimoku cloud is green and beneath us.
Notice the 50 candle moving avg below us giving us support.
Notice the green area of support below us.
I am not telling any one of you that you are wrong if you believe we will eventually go down. I agree with you. But before that? BLOW-OFF TOP!
Best in all your trades,
Stew