Combined US indexes suggest a spike upThe Combined US indexes chart ended the week with a bearish candlestick that had a little bullish indication with a longer tail and closing above the support line (aka Fake Out Line #2).
This is slightly bullish and represents a chance for the earlier projected target of 668 to be achieved in the coming week or two. Yes, technical indicators appear to suggest that it is a bit stretched but it does look as if it would like to spike up, maybe in a blow off top fashion.
This is aligned to the USD drop described earlier.
Snp500
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAY 08 WEEKCME_MINI:ES1! ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAY 08 WEEK
Are we seeing the bearish ascending triangle already?
As with NQ, tendency to take rotational trades has diminished.
Scenario Planning:
1) Rejection short at 4175 / 4068
2) If market decides to spring a surprise, long on test of break of
4198 and finds support
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
Daily: High vol narrow spread S>D bar = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4198 4068
3928 3788
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Have a profitable trading week.
So now back down to the 200 day?Traders,
We have now touched the underside of our macro uptrend (3) three times and the bulls have been unable to break to the topside again. Is is time for them to sit the bench for a few weeks, get their wind back, and let the bears take us back down to retest that 200 day one more time? It might be.
Stew
Combined US market analysis - Going UP!From the combined weekly chart, it appears that the indices are bullish and on the way up.
1. Tested, bounced off and broke above the Fake Out Lines;
2. Last week's candle is obviously bullish with momentum
3. MACD and VolDiv are both supportive of bullish upside
4. TD Sequential primary trend is bearish, but the current setup appears to aim for a completion over the next 2-3 weeks.
5. Closed at the highest point for 2023 last week
Taken together, there is enough bullish momentum to push forth and upwards.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 APR 17 WEEKCME_MINI:ES1!
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 APR 17 WEEK
Friday's bar closed below 4175 and showed a rejection
of higher prices.
Scenario Planning:
1) Rejection short at 4175
2) Market rotation continues = trade at boundary (80pt range)
of range (grey box)
3) Rotation breakout long at support of 4175
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
Daily: High vol narrow spread S>D bar = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4175 4096
3928 3788
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
Nas and Snp could be turning down...4080 for snp is a important level to watch..
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Bullish above last month HIGH Buy signal still valid SPX SPY SNPWith all the Doom & Gloom regarding recession worries we liked our idea even more so into Q1 close last month.
So far so good however we are still very early in Q2.
We remain bullish above last months high (March 2023)
Seeking Pips will be managing our positions on the Weekly and Daily charts.
We also note that the current price is also in a key Fib retracement zone to SELL SPX on the monthly chart so we will not be surprised to see another pullback, again we would consider adding to our core position if this happens and volatility is right.
Our Bull & Bear price level is clear and as long as we above it we want to be buyers only.
A failure of March 2023 Low we would have to revaluate our current thesis.
Happy trading have a GREAT WEEK.!
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SPX RALLY CONTINUESAll indicators are showing a continuous rally on the SPX. Despite closing lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, the index rebound in the next two trading days and almost managed to reach the opening levels from Tuesday.
Both MACD and RSI are confirming the bullish trend, with MACD histogram being above zero and RSI above 50 neutral line.
If this scenario continues, the price might reach levels of 4312.In the opposite scenario, as a pivot point might be viewed the price of 4000, after it new lows of 3925 might be reached.
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SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part IIITime for yet another update in this uncanny inverse relationship between the SG10Y Government Bonds and the S&P500 Index ETF, SPY...
Recall that the SG10Y GBond yields are in apparent inverse correlation to the SPY. When there is a trendline breakdown on the yields, the SPY is bullish; and when there is a trendline breakout, the SPY is bearish.
So far, it can be observed that this relationship is intact and predictable, with the SPY forging bullishly when the SG10Y GBond yields are falling...
Note that a support is approaching and this can mean either or both of two things:
1. There should be a brief stall in momentum incoming soon; and
2. The primary trend for the SG10Y GB Yields is bearish, expected to break the support and head further down until the end of April 2023. This also suggests that April should see a surge in the SPY (and S&P500), denoted by the larger green arrow.
So far, now change in the yield downtrend, at least for the next week, until it reaches the expected downside target (red circle).
US500 H4 | Potential bounce off from 23.6%?Looking at the H4 chart, it appears that the price is nearing our buy entry at 4058.68. This level is a pullback support level, accompanied by a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit level is set at 4135.55, which is a swing high resistance. We will set our stop loss at 4007.06, which is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
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VXX (VIX ETN) showing bullish divergence for volatility comebackJust noted that the VXX (the VIX ETN) is showing a bullish divergence in both the MACD and the VolDiv as it returns to the consolidation zone and bounces near the support.
Breaking out above 46 and then 47 should trigger another bout of volatility... question is IF 58 will be a good resistance or is it to break beyond that level the next round?
IMHO, expecting a massive breakout...
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 APR 04 WEEK
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 APR 04 WEEK
Market may be continued to be marked up. However, exercise
caution as weekly bar may be showing a bull trap.
Scenario Planning:
1) Possible short if 4175 is rejected
2) Continuation Long if 4082 // 4175 are supported
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Low vol up bar close toward high
= no commitment to higher prices, possible trapping longs
Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward high = non-trend changing
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4175 4082
3928 3788
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
Too big to fail?Dejavu of 2008 recession is looming here in the world stock markets.
This is not a joke.
Deutsch and Cahrles Schwab are having troulbes.
What if...more banks are revealing to fail.
Are they too big to fail?
MACD is getting bearish and all charts are indicating that parachutte mode is on.
Looks like we are on the edge of the mountain.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 27
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 27
I won't be trading till the new month starts.
Keep profits and rest if target has been reached, and also
chart is messy at the moment.
Can't imagine a new quarter is starting soon!
Scenario Planning:
1) Possible short if market tests previous rotation area
(grey box)
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = possible weakness
= Supply remains
Daily: Mark up on lower volume = possible buyer's trap
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4082 3928
3788 3502-3580
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.