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Snp500

#ES_F Tuesday 1.31.23 Prep Review: Sunday Globex opened right at key level of 4084-7, attempted to get back over but failed trapping the buyers and yesterdays end of day supply above. We sold got the move lower which broke 4061-56 and found buyers at lower support area of 4046-42 pre market. At RTH Open we corrected short inventory back to our Resistance area of 4084-77 where more sellers stepped in. Selling back down and holding under 4061-56 was showing us that this is now our resistance making possible target at 4046-42 which was already tested multiple times and T2 low below it at our 4031-25 Support. We did get our move lower but it happened towards the end of the day which makes us think there are still buyers below and we didn't have enough supply to break it just yet. Good trades today from resistance down, stayed with the trend. Overview: We are currently in distribution mode and our range is 4077-4030, we got up against big resistance last week and trapped some more supply over 4084 which we saw today coming out under 4061. We had enough short covering today to keep us up over resistance and not test T2 Low which was at key support until end of day... does that tell us that the buying is so strong and keeping us up or are we just taking our time dropping the bid lower to not scare off willing buyers? Tonight our nearest Resistance is at 4046-42 and Support is at 4030-25 since we are in distribution mode we are not sure when they will be done and ready to move out of this range. We are currently below T2 range but inside Previous Day range, as long as we are holding under 4061-56 that is a sign of continued weakness from above but must see a break of 4030-25 for first sign of lower continuation and then get under 4012-08. For signs of reversals to the upside we must hold 4030-25 and start taking out higher resistance areas and especially holding over 4061-56. Can we stay in distribution range until data starts hitting this week to bring more volume or will we make a move outside the range again? Levels to Watch: Daily Resistance: 4123-4084 Intraday Resistance: 4084-77 // 4061-56 // 4046-42 Daily Support: 4012-3988 Intraday Support: 4030-25 // 4012-08 // 3994-89 If Broken then 3957-53 // 3944-40
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
S&P500 Technical Analysis-2023Hello everyone, hope you all are doing good. Bullish Probability:(at least one or two weekly candle closes above 4100 than there is a possibility of this playing out). There is an active Bullish Divergence playing out in RSI, so there are chances S&P500 may put new high above 5k. If S&P500 put new High, then it can be a Triple Bearish Divergences, so after that it can be a massive dump of markets. In this case the 1st Bottom will be 3500, so the 2nd Bottom can be massive drop from 5k to 2000, previously S&P500 dropped its 2nd Bottom from 1580 to 670(-57%). Bearish Probability:(at least one or two Weekly candle closes below 3700 than there is a possibility of this playing out) Currently the Fractal of SnP500 looks like similar to the previous oct-2001 to july-2002 Fractal. S&P500 -> falling in a Descending parallel channel -> Breakout/Fake Out little and finally put lower low or 1st Bottom. If this plays out than RSI may fall below 30 - invalidating the current Bullish Divergences. (Sometimes Divergences get invalidated due to forceful movement of Markets). Target = around 3200 OR there is a possibility to fall on the sky Blue trendline. Thank you, please like and share, if you have any questions please comment.
SP:SPX
by nmchary
6
#ES_F Monday 1.30.23 PrepThis week we find ourselves opening right against bigger resistance area of 4120-4080, its a big market moving data week which will bring in volume. Lots of traders are looking for this to either reverse hard or keep going to 4150-4200-4300 those two are great options and another is to use this to maybe shake things up on both sides. It feels like there is still more covering to do and at the same time we are at an area of bigger supply which warns us of uncertainty. We have been making some big moves and maybe we found a location to range a little bit? Do some cleaning and get ready for next step? We will have to see what action we get this week but if that turns out the case then will be looking at 4120-4000 as our bigger range for now until we fully break through either side. Areas to watch tonight are 4084-77 // 4061-56, If we completed our business over 84 for now and trapped that supply then we will want to buy it back cheaper. If we cant get back over 84-77 that might give us a test of Fridays low and that 4061-56 level to see if we can shake things up and from there will have to watch it level to level with our potential support being at 4046-42 and lower with T2 Low being right at 4030-25 Support. Thinking that if we stay in this bigger range then we might get some good two way trading this week because of this indecision with buyers under 4000 and sellers over 4100 but also a chance to see quick reversals. We are currently accepted in 4077-4030 area and Friday move was a stop run but we have to watch if we build structure around it then get back over it. Levels to Watch: Daily Resistance 4120-4084 Intraday 4143-37 // 4123-19 // 4103-4100 // 4084-77 Daily Support 4012-3990 Intraday 4061-56 // 4046-42 // 4030-25 // 4012-08
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
1
SPX and Nasdaq for 1-2Q 2023*Fundamental Analysis* February market perspective summary In January, the market started with the Fed's interest rate freeze and China's reopening expectations, and as the performance of worrying tech stocks passed smoothly, upward pressure eased and a rebound came out. In February, the gap between market participants and the Fed widened. Market participants expect the Fed to finish raising rates by 25bp x 2 times after judging that inflation is over. However, China's reopening is making room for inflation to pick up again and the US labor market is still strong, the Fed cannot easily be complacent and stop raising interest rates. I expect a price correction to occur as the gap between the Fed and market participants closes on the Fed side. After that, if the gap is closed after mid-February, it is expected that an additional rebound in March will be possible as interest rate freezes and China's reopening are the story again. In other words, this February, rather than aggressively building additional positions, we will respond with a strategy of maintaining our remaining positions and cash ratio and buying again in case of a downward correction. *Technichal Analysis* The view that the US economy is relatively healthy, It is good to get position USD from now on as a hedging of the recession.
TVC:SPXLong
by goldenstickkr
1
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 29 ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 29 Market presented scenario2 for Long with TP1 at 29pts & TP2 at 80pts. Supply observed on H4 and Daily TF. Supply may be back to defend their position. Scenario Planning: 1) Watch for H4 bar, possible scenario - if next H4 bar close higher but on narrow spread and lower vol, market may present a temporary short opportunity - if next H4 bar closes lower, weakness is confirmed. Short when market retraces to a recent high and is rejected. 2) If market breaks through on very high vol, retraces and finds support, it will be opportunity to go long. Volume Analysis: Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = No Demand Daily: Ave vol up bar close at middle = Supply coming in H4: High vol down bar close at low (UT) = S>D. If up bar after this is narrow spread and low volume, we may have a temporary short opportunity Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4175 4094 3928-3788 3580 3502 3231 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
ES_F Week Recap. Is there more upside? Review: This weeks agenda was short covering, market got too short under 3930 and we used the covering do drive us higher to our bigger supply areas where we can find more selling. We have successfully arrived at our next bigger time frame supply level. Wasn't an easy week to trade as they didn't make this move up as fun for everyone but levels held nicely and targets were reached. Last few data releases were different than what we are used to and trades take longer to set up so extra patience is required. End of day today we used the short stops that we built second half of the day to unload our inventory and run it up over 4103 where we found more sellers from where we dropped the bid end of day. The way we closed at first seemed bad for the longs in a way that we have trapped inventory over 4084 and that was that, after review it makes me think that possibly we just found supply and dropped our bid to cover lower but I think there is still some more covering to do up here. Doesn't seem like we are ready to reverse just yet.. Overview: Coming week has lots of data so it wont be an easy one, best to take it day by day and let the market show us what we are doing. Sunday Globex will have to show us the next set up... our potential support is under 4084-77, our position end of day was in that area as well. Monday is no news/data day which means less volume and after todays end of day drop we might have less bullish traders in globex so they can buy it back cheaper and try to make another run at it, depends where we open but we should be over T2 range which tells us more shorts are trapped under for potential support and if we run out of supply in 4100-4084 area then we will need to get more over Fridays high which if broken will create more buying to possibly get us to test next supply area. Our support is under 4084-77, red flag if we break and start holding under 4061-56, ideally we consolidate under or above support then start pushing away from 4084 again during RTH BUT since its a big supply area they might try to consolidate then get over 4100 during Globex since there is less volume and use that as support later in the day, if that happens we might will have to watch potential support under 4100 and resistance areas stay the same. Have to be careful up here because size is doing business here and they don't care what anyone thinks as they will get their fill or do what they need to do. We are towards an edge where things like reversals happen but that takes time to play out or can be very quick. If we did happen to finish this move higher and longs are trapped, we have to start seeing price break and hold below our lower support areas and moving away from this supply, until then they might keep moving it higher. Levels to Watch: Resistance: 4168-4162 //4143-37 // 4123-19 // 4100 Support: 4084-77 // 4061-56 // 4030-25 // 4012-08 // 3957-53
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
SPY about to break out OR fail?The week to close leaves Friday (today) and currently, the weekly candle is looking really really good... A potential weekly break out is in the cards IF Friday can hold current levels and/or rally further above 400. Furthermore, note that the MACD is in alignment for an uptrend. albeit the VolDiv is slightly less than ideal, being flattish-ly up trending somewhat. Also, this should be the third weekly close above the 23 week EMA... and what we really want to see is a close above 410.5, for a higher high. DeMark Sequential started as this week is the third candle, and noted that there is no completed Buy Setup since late 2022 when the down trend started. Oddly, without a completed Buy Setup, the primary trend is actually UP, which suggests this deep retracement is about over. IF all goes really well, expect upside target at 442-448, a good 10% upside. For now, this is just a technical heads up and plotting of the next couple of week's projections.
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
#ES_F Overview for 1.24.23 Review: Short covering continued today, during Globex we held above 3976-71 Support, consolidated under VWAP before then open and once we took the open out off we went, we flushed most of the supply out of this area last Wednesday so this move over 4030 was much easier without much consolidation needed on the way up. We saw our first decent correction and need to consolidate to go higher at 4046-42 which was first resistance target. We were able to take it out and hit next level at 4061-56 where we found more supply which gave a nice correction to VWAP, the higher it gets the more supply there will be so have to be careful at these areas as we might have found our range for distribution. Overview: We have possibly found our distribution range between 4077-4030, have to see how we hold Globex but there is a good possibility to see a test of today's high at some point, will it hold or not is for us to find out. Ideally we hold 4030-25 support but very likely we could see some sort of flush under it before, as long as we hold over 4012-08 the upside has a chance of playing out. If we take a dip under 4030-25 and can consolidate under without breaking it will be a good information, unless we make some move over it tonight. Levels to Watch: 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 // 84-77
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
4
#ES_F Overview for Monday 1.23.23 Review: Last week Thursday we got back to our possible support area under 3930 and we could see the short covering stabilize the price before RTH at 3915-10 area which was important going forward, during RTH we failed to continue lower and only did a look below Globex low and came back in without reaching next level and taking out the low from 1.10 signaling that sellers are running out. Friday Globex we consolidated more getting all the supply secured, RTH open gave us a flush under VWAP to get the last sellers out and once we got over 30 again shorts were trapped and we began mark up back to our Supply area which is over 3990. Overview: That flush Wednesday took out a lot sellers from this area so now we might be able to get through it easier and head for our next Resistance area. As we know the goal is to sell product higher to willing buyers and we need to create some demand, ideally we can hold over this 76-71 area or at least over 60 as we now have support below those areas and see a move higher to take out last weeks high which will bring in more demand to the store. I will be looking to see if we get any pull back tonight towards 76-71 area and if it holds or not, the way we high closed Friday we might not get much of a pull back and instead take out 94-89 area first and head for 4000 pocket, if that happens then any pull back to and under 94-89 could be a good opportunity to buy and eventually if we hold over this area and get through that 4000 pocket we can see a push higher into next resistance area to 4046-61 maybe little over it depending how much buying we get. Levels to Watch: 3976-71 // 3995-89 // 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 For better confirmation we can wait until 4012-08 gets taken/hold either in Globex or RTH tomorrow, if in Globex then we might see a re-test in RTH but either way if we get over this area we could see our move to 4030-25 // 4046-42 and if that is that 61-56. Trading it level to level is a safer bet since we would be in supply area and never know what can happen but ideally everything holds up nicely and we get the full move. IF we don't hold 76-71 first red flag, breaking under 60 big red flag and will need to wait because if that happens then trip lower could happen but being up here I would think that they will try to run the highs to bring in more buyers to sell product into.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
4
It's happening! Blow-off top, Day 1.Traders, You all know that I have been expecting and discussing this day for many moons now, the day we break above our macro downtrend. Today is that day. Day 1 of what I expect to be a blowoff top that will surprise many investors, maybe a majority of investors. Before I get ahead of myself in enthusiasm, we will need another confirmation candle here on the daily. I'd love to see us close and open above the macro uptrend line as well, but that type of price movement is not necessary for confirmation. All we need to do is open and close tomorrow's candle above our macro downtrend and we are good to go. New highs in the U.S. stock markets should arrive sometime this year. I would anticipate by mid-summer to late fall. Enjoy the ride! Stew. [
ULong
by stewdamus
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 23 ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 23 Market didn't manage to test 4175-4094 area last week indicated lack of demand, with the weekly bar displaying it more saliently. Preference will be short on retracement. Scenario Planning: 1) Short at rejection of trrendline or price levels 2) Long if price breakout of trend line, retraces and is supported Volume Analysis: Weekly: Low vol up bar close off high = No Demand Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward high = No Demand H4: Very high vol up bar close toward high = potential selling into higher prices Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4175 4094 3928-3788 3580 3502 3231 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
Continue...The increase in rates will begin to realize itself closer to March. FRS does everything right. Taking into account the Fed's policy for 2023, macroeconomic factors and banking policy, 2023 can easily become the year of the red candle or the continuation of the downtrend. Let's now go deeper into the economy and see what is happening in it now. We all know that the credit policy of the USA and the EU for individuals. the price is very profitable. Interest rates were very low, and housing loans were even negative. All this led to individuals grow lending themselves to the ceiling of their salaries. Not the way I teach you – to calculate only from net income – namely from a salary on paper. Due to the increase in interest rates, % on loans begin to grow and payments from individuals grow with them. All this, at a distance, will lead to the fact that many people will have to start selling their property in order to pay off their debts to banks.
SP:SPXShort
by Bull_Short_TG
1
Letters to a Young TraderMy dear self, I am here once again to remind you not to give up on your pursuit. Of course, it's a great one you have chosen and you need to put in the work required to get there. Many before you have walked the same path you're on today and emerged successful and you can too. There will come bad days and you'll question yourself about the path you've chosen. You'll need words of wisdom to guide you. You'll find nothing more helpful than the Bible. Make it your best friend and carry it with you at all times. It'll help you more than you'll realize. In the beginning stages of your development, everything will seem impossible to do and I want you to know it's normal to feel that way right nom. Give yourself time to grow and let experience teach you. You can't learn it in one day. You'll get it at the right time. The greatest lesson you'll learn as a developing trader is when not to do something and that will separate you from the rest of them park. Your focus right now shouldn't be everyday trading. Just because you have time to sit in front of the charts doesn't mean you should trade. Finally, you should have low expectations and allow time for your growth. Trading is a numbers game and once you learn how to manipulate the numbers, you'll find out that you don't need to do a lot to be successful. It's always a pleasure to write you. Yours; The Source Trader
CME_MINI:ESH2023Long
by thesourcetrader
1
SPXSo let's start with fake growth. It is not justified by anything other than the desire of a major player to deprive stop losses before falling. Ema200 became a serious resistance. Also, Powell did not change his rhetoric in favor of the stock market. 50 points is the goal that the speculators deserve. And now the rally down from technical analysis. I'm aiming for the Gartley pattern. This is the best mechanism in my arsenal. Wolfe waves will also help us understand that the market is overheated and the sweet zone for short positions is ending. All success. The winter is coming.
CBOE:SPXShort
by almatradebusiness
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 01ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 01 After rotation between 3788-3928, market breakout for long opportunity. Temporary weakness may be expected. Wait at high levels to short is preferred Scenario Planning: 1) Short at rejection of 4175-4094 2) Long test and accept of rotation area 4175-4094 Volume Analysis: Weekly: Low vol up bar close at high = No Demand Daily: Low vol level bar close toward high = No Demand H4: Low Vol narrow spread up bar close off high = No Demand Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4175 4094 3928-3788 3580 3502 3231 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677