ES1! SPX500USD 2022 NOV 07
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 NOV 07
Market ended the week within an 80pt rotation, pending resolution of
Demand and Supply.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) If market remains in range, trade at boundary of range.
2) Breakout of range: Long if price retrace to test and finds
support
3) Breakdown of range: Short if price retraces to test
breakdown and shows rejection of higher prices.
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand
Daily: Higher vol up bar stopping supply = minor strength
H4: Narrower UHV effort no result down bar followed by
high vol up bar close off high = demand present
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4028 3925 3580
3502 3350
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Have a profitable trading week.
Snp500
Stocks Edge LowerStocks have edged lower. We have broken through 3758 which we anticipated as a strong support level. We are getting intermediary support from 3714, confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has slumped, but does appear to be rounding off as the S&P 500 finds supprt. If we dig deeper, 3627 will provide further support. If we are able to pivot, expect resistance around 3792.
S&P500 is falling faster than BitcoinHi trading bros,
In last 24 hours we saw:
Bitcoin -1.5%
S&P 500 -3.3%
Nasdaq -4.5%
And all of them keep falling!
You may be wondering what is the matter to compare those very different instruments.
S&P 500 is a collection of the strongest and most valuable US companies. It is like a diamond.
When Bitcoin is a bubble without any real value. The balloon with euphoria gas inside.
However, it's not all that univalent.
In the real world, it appears that the diamond is falling faster than a balloon when the gravity kicks in.
Yesterday we have realized that very clearly.
The FED's head Jerome Powell with his speech has turned the economic gravity switch on.
The great blind captain can see the inflation at last!
And can say a scary R-word now! Recession!
Wow! What a brave man!
In general, crypto looks more positive than the securities now.
Which of course doesn't mean crypto is growing 😉
Nevertheless, we have today's winner in top-crypto: BNB +2.5%!
Not a surprise anymore that Euro (not the Dollar!!!) is falling with the US negative news.
EUR/USD -1.4% for one day.
Hey Europeans, did you feel poorer? I did!
Briefly about the yesterday's Fed meeting results:
- The rate was expectedly raised from 3.25% to 4%, which was taken positively by the market.
But then 30 minutes later Jerome Powell gave a speech which turned out to be disappointing.
The main thing from his speech:
- The final rate level will be higher than previously expected.
- The probability that the US will avoid recession has decreased.
- Fed sees no encouraging progress on inflation.
- The interest rate is likely to be increased to 0.5% at the next meeting.
And yes, my overall market sentiment is still bearish in midterm.
More coins' comparison is on this chart:
🔥WHY BITCOIN COPIES S&P500 MOVES: THE ANSWER WILL AMAZE YOU!🔥 Hi friends! I am sure that most of the traders want to earn more. I wrote this idea so that you could stay in the trend of new developments in the crypto market and understand the dependence of the crypto market on other markets.
Bitcoin began to copy SnP500 and this is a FACT. In order to understand why the price is copied at all, it is necessary to understand what the price is and how it is created.
🚩 I will not go into deep, fundamental knowledge of pricing. I will explain it very simply. In financial markets, pricing is mostly based on cycles of fear and greed of people. More greed - higher growth. Fear has a slightly different pattern. Usually the biggest fear is not during the fall or the maximum bottom, but during the rebound from the bottom.
✅ I think most of you understand these patterns.
📊 SIMILARITIES/DIFFERENCES BETWEEN BITCOIN AND S&P500
Let's move on to comparing the growth cycles (green areas) and the fall cycles (red areas). In total, I have highlighted 5 recent cycles (markets) for better illustration of the examples.
✅ As you can see, cycles 1, 2 and 3 almost do NOT coincide in all-time highs.
For example, the beginning of Bitcoin's fall in cycle 1 does not coincide at all with the fall of the SNP500, because the stock market was still growing and even renewed its highs.
🚩 In the case of Bitcoin and the SNP500, only large falls with major liquidations coincided. This is the end of cycles 1 and 3. When the largest market in the world falls, it is copied by all world economies and markets. Even such a seemingly new and independent cryptocurrency market. As I said, everything is based on fear and greed.
✅ Cycle 4 and 5 exactly coincide with the local bottom and all-time highs.
🚩 Many traders are already looking at the opening and closing of the US stock market to identify the direction of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Pay attention to the correlation data. At the beginning of November, the correlation is 0.69 or 69%. This is a high correlation!
The highest correlation was in mid-October. The correlation of Bitcoin and the SNP500 reached 89%! This is almost a direct copy of the price movements.
📊 WHY DOES BITCOIN START COPYING S&P 500 MOVES?
I discovered this answer for myself several years ago when studying different markets in search of the perfect strategy.
✅ The price of Bitcoin follows the movements of the S&P 500 due to the fact that many institutional traders, whales and funds came from the stock market to the cryptocurrency market. This means that each asset has its own character, but it can change over time depending on the habits of most players.
For example, you have definitely seen such altcoins that grow while 99% of other crypto is falling. The fact is that traders who trade this particular altcoin have a different nature and reasons to push the price. It is the same with falling altcoins in a bull market. Each asset has its own character, but it changes over time, which is what happened with Bitcoin.
🚩 If earlier most of the players in the market were short-term traders who wanted to earn 100-200% in a few weeks, then the price grew in pumps and could fall 5-6 times a year by 40%. Now we see that the price grows by 100-200% in one move and begins to consolidate, which was not the case before. This is the influence of new players in the crypto market.
✅ If a few years ago, large funds were afraid to trade on the crypto market because of the risks and low liquidity for buy, then with the spread of blockchain and the growth of capitalization, they can no longer do without investing in crypto and lose such opportunities.
In confirmation of this, we see how the last cycles began to coincide and I probably have to say it, but it will continue. All financial markets are looking at the US economy, so this correlation will continue...but not always.
📊 WILL BITCOIN STOP GROWING AS MUCH AS BEFORE?
✅ Bitcoin will continue to grow by 600-700%. So far, 2 things allow it to grow so much:
1. relatively small capitalization
2. great popularity among traders, especially retailers
🚩 But how much you can earn in such a market depends on your preparation and training provided by professional traders, because they already know all these nuances and can share their experience. I am sure that some chips can increase your profitability by 25-35%.
Traders, was this idea useful for you? If you want to thank or add something, then write your thoughts in the comments!
💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
Yesterday's FOMC: Reality Sets in for StocksReality crashed the party with stocks yesterday, as we have been predicting here. The FOMC event was still quite hawkish despite the market's anticipation that we would see some softening in rhetoric. This caused stocks to tank yesterday, with the S&P 500 falling through multiple levels to find support at 3758. European equities have softened which could portend another dump for the NAM session today. Additionally, eyes are on the BoE and we will see if their outlook matches that of the Fed. If we fall further, we could find support in the upper 3600's, with 3645 a likely floor. A rally will have to claw back through multiple levels. We don't see a rally strong enough to break through 3909 any time soon. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, and it will likely take a few days for the market to price in the Fed's decision.
Stocks Retrace From HighsStock indexes have pulled back from highs with stronger than expected construction and PMI data putting a damper on the markets' hopes that the Fed will taper their hawkish stance. These hopes were never really justified in the first place, so it was only a matter of time before reality set in. The S&P 500 inched above our level at 3909 and then fell back to support around 3848. We anticipate further support at 3792. The Kovach OBV has slumped so it is possible we may see some ranging here as stocks seek direction. If we can break out the next target is 3963.
S&P 500 E-mini FuturesSupply and Demand
Supply and Demand is one of the core strategies used in trading. It focuses on the ancient laws of supply and demand and how price moves in a free-flowing market. The foundation of this strategy is that the amount of an instrument that is available and the desire of buyers for it, drive the price. It identifies zones on the chart where demand overwhelms supply (the demand zone ), driving the price up, or where supply overwhelms demand (the supply zone ), driving the price down. Most supply and demand traders wait for the price to enter these zones, where major buying or selling activities have taken place, before entering a long or short position themselves.
I MOSTLY DO DAY TRADE BASED ON THESE ZONES. THE TIME FRAME I PREFER IS 2 MIN AND 5MIN TO TRADE THESE ZONES.
SPY does not look very much better... So, October ended with Halloween, and its time to update the outlook for the longer term on the SPY Monthly chart.
October underwhelmed September, but it still closed on a bullish candle nontheless. So might we be expecting a follow through bounce? I think the jury is still out... and a lot pivots on what action is taken by the FOMC, as well as its outlook.
Bigger than that, zooming out to see the larger picture, a little unsettling was something eye catching - that there might have been a time in the not so far past that looked technically similar.
The monthly chart have the two time lines drawn (white dotted vertical line). Back in August 2008, while 2008 presented as a pretty bad most of the year at that point (as it did similarly in 2022), there was a sense of optimism in the air just then, despite the monthly MACD (and MACD Signal) crossing down below zero. Then the next month saw all hell break loose. The technical picture then (simplistically) appeared to have broken a supporting up trend line, had MACD and MACD Signal lines cross down below zero, and the Volume Divergence cross down its moving average.
Similarly, albeit on a larger scale, the technical outlook appears to be repeated on an amplified scale here.
Presuming that the technicals uncannily unfold similar outcome, then by projection, the downside target could be the last major low... targeted about 200 on the SPY. Yes, about half of what it is just now.
That is quite severe.
In consolation, thus far, it appears that the projections point to a likelihood of 325-330 for the time being as previously assessed.
However, if a series of black swans start to go off... then maybe, just maybe, this post will remind of where the SPY might be heading.
Stocks Edge Higher, Looking WeakStocks have crept up, after rejecting highs at 3909. We had a brief retracement yesterday, which quickly found support and the S&P 500 was able to tick up past 3909, making a new relative high albeit barely. Several red triangles on the KRI suggest that we are running into stiff resistance at these levels. The Kovach OBV has slumped, so we will see if we have enough momentum to break out. If so, 3963 is the next target. If not, then 3792 should be considered a floor price.
Stocks Continue to GainThe S&P 500 has edged higher, after a brief retracement from 3887. We seemed to reject this level but found support just above our level at 3758. Dedicated readers will remember that we anticipated support here in previous reports. From there we pivoted nicely and broke through the previous high of 3887 to reach our target of 3909. The Kovach OBV is climbing steadily so we will see if this rally can continue. If we can break through 3909 the next target is 3963. If we retrace, then 3758 should hold as a floor.
S&P 500 RalliesThe S&P 500 has shrugged off Amazon losses, pivoting just above our level at 3758. Amazon has given up $trillion status as weak holiday spending as forecasts project the weakest holiday sales growth quarter ever. We will see if stocks can continue to rally, as a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance at current levels. The price action is rounding off and the Kovach OBV has slumped. If we continue to rally, we will face resistance from 3887, and 3909, the latter corresponding to a relative high. If we retrace, anticipate support at 3758 again.
S&P 500 E-mini Futures, Short StrategyHere's a possible short strategy based on S&P 500 E-mini Futures daily chart.
Based on previous price movements I would enter a short position. Await first for confirmation, then enter a position. Keep your stop loss somewhere above the upper channel.
Target 1 - $3690
Target 2 - $3590
Target 3 - $3500
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I keep it simple and clean!
Likes, comments, and follows are dearly appreciated.
Let me know what you think and which ones you would like me to analyze next.
Trade safely!
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APE / USDT, Falling wedge, potential breakout??Here's an analysis of APE / USDT, daily chart.
APE is looking very solid, with a falling wedge formation, which anytime could break out. Keep an eye on volume - which at the moment is underwhelming - if it picks up we can have a solid breakout move.
A possible strategy:
Wait for a long breakout confirmation around $5
Target 1: $5.4 (7.5% potential gain)
Target 2: $5.8 (16% potential gain)
Target 3: $6.4 (27% potential gain)
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I keep it simple and clean!
Likes, comments, and follows are dearly appreciated.
Let me know what you think and which ones you would like me to analyze next.
Trade safely!
------------------
About APECOIN:
"ApeCoin is an ERC-20 governance and utility token used within the APE Ecosystem to empower and incentivize a decentralized community building at the forefront of web3.
ApeCoin holders govern themselves via the decentralized governance framework controlling the ApeCoin DAO, and vote on how the ApeCoin DAO Ecosystem Fund should be used. The APE Foundation administers proposals agreed upon by ApeCoin holders."
Source: Coinmarketcap.com
The market is ready to turn, will it?Analysis of the spx 500 index 10/27/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index.
And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day.
What's on the market now:
Today the index is trading at 3830. Yesterday we saw a stabilization in motion and a decline in the market, as I mentioned earlier idea link below. In the near future, I expect an attempt to develop a correction. Today I expect that the market will continue to develop a correction and reach its bottom at 3780-3750. However, if this attempt is broken, then the market will continue its growth, where you need to look for places to open short positions from the level of 3970.
What I'm looking forward to today:
Today, I continue to expect the beginning of a correction and an attempt by the market to go down to the level of 3750. However, the market also has the possibility of a sharp fall in the index, so long positions are prohibited.
Here are my trading recommendations for today.
What I recommend
If you want to go short:
Short positions are possible from 3950 which would be a perfect place to sell this week, limit your losses.
If you want to go long:
Long positions are prohibited, limit your losses.
If you are out of the market:
Long positions are possible from the level of 3750, but it is risky. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 3970, limit your losses.
Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice.
Subscribe to my channel and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index. Press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation.
See you next time!
Bye!
Stocks Edge Higher Despite Earnings MalaiseStocks have rounded off, but still edge higher despite disappointing Microsoft guidance , Meta malaise, and general tech sector weakness. Goldman Sachs is bullish on a recovery for Microsoft, and it is one of the only AAA rated companies on the planet. These facts have weighed on the indexes, but have not contributed to much of a sell off yet. If earnings continue to come in weak, then it is difficult to image that this rally will continue. Technically, we are very close to our next target of 3909 where we will likely face resistance as it is a relative high. The Kovach OBV is still edging up, but does appear to be showing signs of leveling off. Expect support at 3792 if so. We should see further support at 3758.
Will the market go down or up tommrow ?Will the market go up or down tommrow. What do you think based on chart
I cover various stocks which can be profitable based on the stock charts and technical indicators. I try my best to explain as detailed as possible but your feedback is also appreciated
Before you enter a trade , one must learn how to master the charts as Stock charts play a big role in deciding when to buy or when not to buy. Technical Trading help in predicting price movements and have a risk management. Stock trading is like any other business and must be taken seriously. Lot of people lose money because they don't educate themselves and end up placing trades blindly which results in big losses
Stock charts is the major component day traders, swing traders, core traders use. Times and technology has changed and if you cannot adapt to the new methods , there is a high chance you will be left behind
Millions of shares are traded now using desktop , laptop or gadgets and stock charts is what majority of traders look at.
So , if you want to be a daytrader , swingtrader or coretrader learn how to read and interpret charts. There are lot of great books out there like Thomas Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of chart patterns and Steve Nison Japanese Candlesticks interpretation
Having someone experienced can also cut the learning curve time for a new trader. Trading does take time and with discipline , hardwork , dedication and most importantly Passion for this needs to be there.
Stocks Rally! Is this Just Exhuberance?The S&P 500 has rallied off increased expecatations of a Fed tapering after housing price data came in negative. Additionally, Coca-Cola and GM posted earnings
results yesterday suggesting that there is hope for some companies feared to be hit by inflation. Be careful trading this, as the markets have been fooled before, and we will need to wait for forward guidance from Fed speakers before any rally is confirmed. The Kovach OBV is climbing steadily, and we have reached our target of 3849, with 3909 the next major level and next target. If we reject current levels, 3792 or 3758 could provide support.
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION#XAUUSD
According to the analysis we gave to XAUUSS earlier, GOLD went up very fast by BREAKING the TREND LINE, due to which US10Y went down.
We have some very important NEWS coming to USD this week. Be sure to keep an eye on it. So we have to wait a bit until we get them.
Anyway, with US10Y UP, GOLD is going down a bit now. Either way we expect GOLD to go DOWN to 1590. Before that, GOLD can go up to 1700 LEVEL anyway. Be careful..
Stocks Attempt Hihger LevelsStocks have continued to edge higher, though they are looking quite weak. We were able to break past 3792, but the very next level at 3810 is providing significant resistance. The price action rounding off, and red triangles on the KRI are confirming resistance. Additionally, the news sentiment remains bearish, so at some point we are likely to face a swift rejection of current levels. However, the Kovach OBV is still strong. If we are able to break out, then 3849 is a reasonable target with 3909 a likely ceiling. We should start to see some support at 3758 if we retrace.
Actual levels for opening short positions 3860-3950.Analysis of the spx 500 index 10/25/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index.
And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day.
What's on the market now:
Today the index is trading at the level of 3797. Over the past trading day, we saw an increase in the index, without any attempt at correction. Today I expect the market to peak at 3860, where the correction will begin. If a slight correction starts today, then its bottom can be expected at the level of 3730. However, if this attempt is broken, then the market will continue its growth. Where you need to look for places to open short positions from the level 3860.
What I'm looking forward to today:
At the open today, I expect the market to try to drop again to the 3743 - 3715 level. However, if this attempt is broken, then the market will continue its growth to the 3860 level.
Here are my trading recommendations for today.
What I recommend
If you want to go short:
Short positions are possible from level 1 - 3860, level 2 - 3950 this would be an ideal place to sell this week, limit your losses.
If you want to go long:
Long positions are possible from the level of 3652.
If you are out of the market:
Long positions are possible from the level of 3652. Limit your losses. If you want to open a short position, it is better to do it from the level of 3860-3975, limit your losses.
Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice.
Subscribe to me and you will always be aware of the movement of the spx 500 index.
If you'd like to help me promote my content, please hit the boost.
See you next time!
bye!
SNP500 Mid-Term Short ExpectationDON'T FORGET TO LIKE (BOOST)
This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF (IS THE KING)
- ETC
Stocks Face HeadwindsDespite plenty of negative sentiment in the news and a week packed with data, including the Fed's redbook and housing price indexes on Tuesday, GDP on Thursday and PCE on Friday. We hit a high of 3792. We tweeted on Sunday night that this small rally was likely to be short lived and sure enough we are seeing a pull back. The APAC markets are selling dramatically , as investors are worried about Asia's economic future. This is likely to bleed into the US markets as well. If so, we could see support at 3645 again. We expect resistance at 3792 to hold but if not, 3909 is the next target.
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION#XAUUSD
According to the analysis we gave to XAUUSS earlier, GOLD went up very fast by BREAKING the TREND LINE, due to which US10Y went down.
We have some very important NEWS coming to USD this week. Be sure to keep an eye on it. So we have to wait a bit until we get them.
Anyway, with US10Y UP, GOLD is going down a bit now. Either way we expect GOLD to go DOWN to 1590. Before that, GOLD can go up to 1700 LEVEL anyway. Be careful..