XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION#XAUUSD
According to the analysis given to XAUUSS earlier, GOLD went down very fast, BREAKING the TREND LINE because the US INFLATION DATA was UP. Due to this, US10Y went up a lot. And US RETAIL SALES DATA also rose rapidly. It also affected GOLD especially last week. So GOLD sold fast. And the FOMC also pushed GOLD to the lower MINOR SUPPORT LEVEL.
We have some very important NEWS coming to USD this week. PCE DATA is key to that. So we have to wait a bit until we get them.
Anyway, with US10Y UP, GOLD is going down a bit now. Anyway, we expect GOLD to go down to 1647 LEVEL. After that, GOLD can definitely go up to 1744 LEVEL. Be careful..
Snp500
Bear Wedge in StocksStocks look incredibly weak as persistent risk-off news and a hawkish Fed are impacting the markets. The S&P 500 is forming a bear wedge at 3617, and the Kovach OBV is bearish, and has flattened. We are long overdue for a relief rally, but we will need more momentum to come through before we see anything significant. If we break down further, then we should expect further support at 3584 or 3547.
SPY can't get it up...Just a quick pre-weekend analysis and update about the SPY.
Previously, it looked like the SPY was about to do a technial bounce, but the week panned out to be more fear overwhelming than anything else. The MACD is not divergent, so any bounce can be expected to be shallow; just like Wednesday's bounce, and not following through the next day. It appears a little oversold, and at support cross-roads. With the bearish Buy Setup in force indicating a bearish primary trend, a bounce of some sort is still in the cards. So we play the bull and bear case scenario again.
(Slight) Bull case sees a mild rally to about 380 (most likely, as it meets a set of resistances) or perhaps stretch to 390, where should start to stall and turn down again. The TD Seq Sell Setup should start with a TD Flip, then proceed to build but not likely to change the primary trend by exceeding 403. In fact, it might even truncate. If this scenario happens, it would take us to almost mid-October, and the rest of October might be pretty bearish to reach the projected downside target(s), 305 and 330, which have been readjusted for time.
The bear case here is a consolidation around 370 and then most of October fall off the cliff type of bear market to 350, then to 330.
The slight bull case appears more probable at this point with a favourable 70/30 skew. But whichever way, it is in the middle of a bear trend and it is not quite over.
For now, I'd be watching the next week or two to see how this pans out...
PS. So far, the projected lines (based on the symmetrical HH and LL pattern) is still robust and uncanny, which was posted on Aug 3.
SP500 CONTINUES ITS DOWNTRENDAfter the Wednesday rebound, SP500 went into downturn again in Thursday, amid investors fears of economic slowdown and further interest increase.
The benchmark hit new low on Wednesday, before rebound, of 3602, which was not tested yesterday, but if the downtrend keeps its momentum, this level might be tested and even levels of 3480 might be reached. In the opposite scenario, if the trend reverses, the price might reach its high of 4160.
All technical indicators are confirming the bearish trend, with MACD histogram below 0 line and RSI approaching oversold zone of the 30 line.
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Dead Cat Bounce in StocksStocks caught a massive bid, breaking through highs, and finally met resistance at 3737. The Kovach OBV has picked up substantially, validating the pivot. It is likely this rally is transient and we will retrace back to lows or support around 3645. But if we can break through 3758, there is a vacuum zone until the next target at 3792. We can expect 3800 to hold as an absolute ceiling for now.
NZDJPY - DAILY TECHNICAL BIAS WITH FUNDAMENTAL BIAS#NZDJPY
NZDJPY should be slightly SELL because the MARKET RISK is off now. Also, since NZD RATES are high, we expect NZDJPY to go UP again. We look forward to the future behavior of NZDJPY. The reason is because the interest rate of NZD is higher compared to JPY.
Either way, NZDJPY should be a LONG TERM BUY.
Anyway, the PRICE can go down again on the NZDJPY MAIN SUPPORT, if the MARKET RISK remains in the OFF state, to the 80.50 LEVEL. Earlier NZDJPY was SELL due to strong JPY and MARKET SENTIMENT is RISK OFF. After that, you can definitely BUY at 86.86 LEVEL. For that, MARKET RISK should be ON. STOCK UP, VIX DOWN, JPY WEAK. Besides, the USD should be WEAK.
EURJPY - FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL VIEW#EURJPY
- There is currently a DOWNSIDE BIAS for EURJPY. With JPY being STRONG, XXXJPY CURRENCIES are selling very fast right now. MARKET RISK is still being OFF. EVEN IF VIX UP, XXXJPY CURRENCIES BUY VERY FAST WITH JPY WEAKNESS. Sometimes EURJPY can reach the 137.00 LEVEL and it has gone down.. 137.00 is a very good SUPPORT LEVEL..
- Some NEWS coming for the USD will help to weaken or strengthen the EURO. But in the future, if the RATE HIKE SENTIMENT is PRICED by the ECB, EURO may be BUY more. For that, the support of EURO STOCKS and VIX must be received. We have no more confirmation that the EURO is likely to be WEAK.
- Anyway, the price can move to the area I mentioned and after that the EURJPY price can move back to the 144.70 LEVEL. For that, VIX should be DOWN and JPY should be WEAK. For that, MARKET RISK should be ON.
VIX Magic Bowls in ActionAs you can see from the images below, all of the bowls are the same size with similar action from the support lines.
This time out the VIX has broken out of the fallen wedge and looks to have confirmed it by touching down.
These have been quite accurate so far and I believe that we'll reach 34 by next friday.
Sounds quite silly, but the bowls are all of the same size and have performed quite well over the last 5 of them and I'm in a long position to take advantage of them again.
US500 IS DIVING DEEPER INTO BEAR MARKETAfter policymakers have shown more appetite for interest rate hikes, S&P500 recorded its lowest close in almost two years and it is 24% down from its record high.
The technical indicators on 1H graph are also putting the index into bear territory, with MACD histogram below 0 and keeps decreasing and RSI well below 50 neutral line.
If the downtrend continues, the index might reach and test levels of around 3530 USD. If opposite scenario occurs, the price might test its previous high at 3800 USD.
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$VIX Has Reached Another FCP Zone - W Pattern Complete #VIXTraders and Investors,
The VIX picked up a lot of strength and violated the bearish flag that was earlier forming. Now it has just completed a W pattern which means that it can take a bit of correction. An extended version of this W pattern places the price in the next FCP zone as well. So although there are chances of it falling down, a little more strength can also push it higher. So watch this carefully along with indices.
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Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums.
✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis
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Take care and trade well
-Vik
____________________________________________________
📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
____________________________________________________
Will Support Hold for Stocks?The S&P 500 is still in bear-mode, though it appears to have found some support at 3645 as we reported yesterday. We do appear to be seeing some meager consolidation with a narrow range forming between this lower bound and 3714. A red triangle on this level confirms strong resistance. The Kovach OBV does appear to be trekking upward, which may indicate that a relief rally is due. If so, it is not likely we will be able to break past 3749. If we sell off further, 3624 is the next target.
Double bottom pattern in formation?Is the S&P500 about to double-bottom? We should find out soon! Like today!
$SPY #SPX Watch This Level For A Possible BounceTraders and Investors,
With the dollar strength the indices have been taking a beating. US30, US500 and US100 have been following the same pattern but the leading one is still Dow Jones (US30).
On the SnP500 so far:
1. It has NOT touched/crossed the 200 sma on the weekly timeframe so a test and then a bounce is expected at some point.
2. There is an FCP zone coming around round number 3550 which can act as support
3. An extended M FCP pattern is forming and will complete around the FCP zone.
So watch this area closely to find a confirmation to go long for a bounce.
Please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍🙂
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums.
✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis
✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions.
Take care and trade well
-Vik
____________________________________________________
📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
____________________________________________________
S&P 500 Slammed AgainThe S&P 500 has been slammed by recession fears, a hawkish Fed, pervasive risk-off themes in the news, and a potentially disastrous hurricane barreling toward the gulf of Mexico (oil refinery hub) and Florida. We have completely given up the 3700's, and are deep into the 3600's with 3645 providing support at the moment. The Kovach OBV is hugging lows and appears to be very oversold. A relief rally could attempt 3700 again, but otherwise the sentiment is extraordinarily bearish. Our next target is 3624.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 25 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 25 Week
ES' short was awesome.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) Short on test and reject of 3792 // lower trend line
2) Long if 3540-3600 // 3711 // dotted and solid trend line is supported
Weekly: High vol down bar close off low = minor demand
Daily: High vol down bar close off low = minor demand.
H3: Possible bottom reversal = Demand > Supply
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
3903 3792 3717
3642 3540-3600
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
SPY revisited the last low, how now?Just to recap that after flipping into a (bear) rally, a back flip pushed the SPY further down from 13 September.
The past week was absolutely stunning...
from the SPY daily chart, the week started with a nice rebound, post-gap-down from the previous Friday. Then once the FOMC made their announcement, the SPY just gave way to lower lows (as earlier expected from the TD analysis). In fact, on Friday, althought he SPY did not clock a lower low, it reached within range of the last low in June. And this was met with a late session rebound. Friday's session was significant in the sense that there was yet another substantial gap down, it revisited near the June lows and came back with a late session rebound instead of selling off into the weekend. This candlestick formed tells of a technical rebound early next week. However, the technical indicators are bearish, suggesting that the support of the June lows will be taken out later after the rebound. On the upper side, there are two critical resistance levels. The first is after closing Friday's gap down (at 375) and needs to close above 378. If that happens, we might have another (bear) rally to the next resistance at 392.
On the weekly SPY chart, the candlestick analysis is suggesting that the bearish momentum is not yet abating. MACD crossed under its signal line, in the bear territory. A very big hint of the weeks' downside to come...
The bigger picture downside target of 325 around the end of October is still valid and feasible. Reviewing the candlestick patterns since August show very reliable patterns per candle and as a collective set of candestick patterns... mostly to the downside for now. Noted too that the weekly candle broke down below the Hull EHMA (bearish).
Overall, still down, after an anticipated technical rebound (early) next week.
Stocks Make New Lows After the FOMCStocks got slammed yesterday, breaking through lows in the 3800's. We anticipated support at the base of the 3800 handle, but the S&P 500 broke down even lower, currently feeling out the highs of the 3700 handle. At this time, 3758 has provided support and we appear to be attempting a push back to the 3800's. The FOMC meeting came out more hawkish than expected. Although we did get the projected 75 bps hike, the rhetoric of Powell's press conference that followed was quite somber and the markets did not get the dovishness they expected. They've reacted accordingly with this selloff. If we are able to break through current levels then 3825 is the next target. If not, 3758 should hold as a floor for now.
S&P 500 BEARISH OUTLOOKThe major US indices, including S&P 500, are continuing to plumed after the Fed rate decision yesterday. The interest rate reached 3.25%, as it was predicted, but the forecasts are that the interest rates will keep increasing into the entire 2023 as well, reaching levels of 4.6%
The technical indicators are suggesting a downtrend as well, MACD histogram is below the 0 line and the RSI is well below the oversold 30 line.
If the trend continues the price might test its levels at 3670, but if it reverses, it might test its previous high at 3958.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.