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ES1! SPX500USD 2022 OCT 17ES1! SPX500USD 2022 OCT 17 Market testing for demand after breakdown of 3580. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) If market forms a rotation, possible LONG opportunity with test of 3808 2) Scenario for breakdown: Lower highs observed, or market hanging around 3580 level. Short on test and reject of breakdown area (since most breaks are normally false breaks) Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand Daily: Ave vol down bar closing at low = minor supply H4: UHV down bar close at low = some demand Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 3903 3808 3580 3502 3350 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profit able trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
2
SPY - momentum NO, consolidation MAYBE, volatile YESAnother exciting week on the SPY! These type of weeks, is where and how people get burnt, especially IF they are not trading on lower time frames. The range of the higher time frames are in excess of 2.5% per day, and 3 out of 5 days in the week had such volatility in different directions! By the way, these volatility periods tend to happen when the VIX is above 30, with large moves in either direction on a daily basis. The weekly chart shows an overall picture where the down draft continues as previous week's candlestick pointed out to the downside. The week was not all down, and although it closed down, there was a good range for the week's candle... just over 6% from the week low. The weekly technical indicators are still showing bearishness, but do note that the TD Sequential is in the last candle of the Setup, which is pretty much perfected. So over the next 2-4 weeks, we can expect more downside towards the previously mentioned target of 325-335, and volatility to add intraweek range. The last week's candle is not giving much commitment to momentum, but maybe to possible consolidation, and definitely suggests volatility with wide ranges. The daily SPY chart appears to be more interesting at this point, with the development of the volatility obvious. The week started out with a gap down, Gap and Run, type of pattern. Especially after an intraday failed attempt to close the gap (observed by the upper tail), there was more downside to be expected. The SPY continued down further, and into a mid-week stall. But on Thursday, an interesting technical event took place... where it started with a large gap down and it was decisively closed with the early upside with a 5.5% range difference. This actually formed a very huge Bullish Engulfing, which candlesticks practitioners would declare bullishness, and a next day follow through would confirm. However, what started out looking like a confirmation on Friday with a gap up, closed and it that was it. It was made worse when Friday closed down (357.63) just above the previous candle body halfway mark (357.59). So strictly speaking, this is not a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, but is is close enough by 0.04 points. The way I see it is that the very bullish engulfing failed a follow through, and the supposedly Dark Cloud Cover also failed to totally qualify by 0.04... I would take it as an overall bearish outlook for the next week, with the caution of a possible bounce and definitely expecting long candles or candle wicks (tails). Also noted that the SPY closed below the June previous low, for the second time. Daily MACD is indicating a mild bullish uptick, but all else still drifting down... Overall bearish, with possible technical bounce mid-week (Wed-Thurs).
AMEX:SPYShort
by Auguraltrader
4
GBPUSD : Current Situation & Technical , Fundamental View#GBPUSD - Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for GBPUSD is on the UP SIDE. Due to MARKET RISK ON, all MARKETS including STOCKS and STOCKS can go UP at this time. It affects the POUND greatly. GBPUSD may be slightly UP after this session. - The price can definitely move up to the SUPPORT LEVEL below the GBPUSD. The reason for that is because there is a good UP SIDE BIAS in the MARKET for USD. But GBPUSD can sell until 1.0766 level. And after that the market can SELL to the 1.1750 LEVEL GBPUSD can BUY if the MARKET SENTIMENT changes and STOCKS and COMMODITIES start going UP. So keep an eye on it.
by benny_marshall
EURGBP - FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL VIEW#EURGBP - Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for EURGBP is slightly on the DOWN SIDE. The main reason for that is the NEGATIVE RISK SENTIMENT for EUR. And we can mention the BOE intervention. The reason for NEGATIVE SENTIMENT in EUR is USD SELL. All MARKETS including STOCKS are UP due to MARKET RISK being ON. It affects the EUR in a big way. - EURGBP can definitely go up to the SUPPORT LEVEL below. EUR may be slightly WEAK due to USD STRONG at the moment. According to that, EURGBP can rise slightly up to 0.8900 LEVEL. And after that EURGBP can be SELL to 0.8352 LEVEL.
by benny_marshall
1
Stocks Await CPI DataStocks remain subdued, with the S&P 500 maintaining a narrow range all week and hugging lows. The APAC session suggests that the markets are bracing for another extremely hot CPI figure, which some are saying could still be in the 8% range. A hot figure would confirm the Fed's hawkish stance and stymie hopes of a pivot to more dovish rhetoric. The Kovach OBV is completely flat as the markets await this print. We have a vacuum zone down to 3547, if current levels do not hold. On the other hand, we must break through 3617 and 3624, which have formed a hard uppr bound for now, if we hope to establish higher levels.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Weakness Prevalent in the S&P 500Stocks appear to have bottomed out at 3584, with support confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. As predicted, we made an attempt for higher levels, but two levels at 3617 and 3624 are providing tough resistance. This is exactly what we predicted yesterday. If we are able to break through the next area of resistance is likely 3676. Risk sentiment is still slighted to the risk-off side, so we don't anticipate any significant rally in stocks any time soon. If we fall further, then 3547 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Correct the RallyThe S&P 500 has completely retraced the small rally we saw at the beginning of October as sobering reality smacks down hopeful exhuberance. The markets are pricing in more hawkish rhetoric, and bracing for CPI on Friday. We made a valiant attempt to hit 3800, but quickly rejected the move all the way back to lows at 3584. We are seeing some support from green triangles on the KRI, but the price action is looking weak and if we break through, 3547 is the next level down. A relief rally will hit resistance at 3617 or 3624.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
NZDJPY - DAILY TECHNICAL BIAS WITH FUNDAMENTAL BIAS#NZDJPY NZDJPY should be slightly SELL because the MARKET RISK is off now. Also, since NZD RATES are high, we expect NZDJPY to go UP again. We look forward to the future behavior of NZDJPY. The reason is because the interest rate of NZD is higher compared to JPY. Either way, NZDJPY should be a LONG TERM BUY. Anyway, the PRICE can SELL again on the NZDJPY MAIN SUPPORT, if the MARKET RISK OFF continues, to the 79.56 LEVEL. Earlier NZDJPY was SELL due to strong JPY and MARKET SENTIMENT is RISK OFF. After that, you can definitely BUY at 86.86 LEVEL. For that, MARKET RISK should be ON. STOCK UP, VIX DOWN, JPY WEAK. Besides, the USD should be WEAK.
by benny_marshall
SPY on the last leg DOWN (of 2022) The week has been nothing short of exciting and boring at the same time. See below... On the left panel, the SPY weekly chart shows a likely continuation of the downtrend. Outstanding is the week's candle wick, not the candle body itself. As highlighted by the red ellipse, the week's candle closed slightly positive, but left a really long upper tail to indicate that there is a lot of downward momentum pushing. Given that it is a positive candle might just mitigate the bearish undertone, somewhat if at all. Technical indicators are still bearish, if not slightly bearish. Perhaps more interesting is the daily chart for the week, where the SPY gapped up and ended promisingly just above the named 1st critical resistance on a huge Tuesday follow through move, after a flip on Monday. Alas Wednesday was an immediate stall, instead of continuing the momentum (boring...). And Thursday really started the snowball rolling when an intraday break of the resistance failed, and it ended with a bearish candle with a top tail. Friday said it all with a gap down and an early intraday close of Tuesday's gap up opening. At a point on Friday, the critical support was breached, but the close was just a last minute recovery. The candlestick patterns are suggesting a weak support to breakdown potential, for a lower low yet again, and towards the 325 downside target. It is also possible that next week brings a bounce, but should end similarly to the down bias. Just a mention that the TD Sequential Buy Setup started with Friday being the first candle. Not marked in the chart, but you can obviously see a (TD) flip. Interestingly, this week's daily chart appeared to have yet another set of symmetrical projections, as outlined by the blue lines. The earlier two down moves were of equal time periods, as are the previous two bear rallies. Noted that the the magnitude of the September moves were slightly larger than previously. Having observed so, a projected continued downside move points to a downside target of 335. This three wave pattern is within the last leg of the weekly three wave pattern (first posted in early August "Projection of a worst case scenario for SPY"). So far, the SPY has pretty much walked the path since, and appears to be on the last leg to complete the journey. Watch the 362 critical support; just need a decisive breakdown, a prior stall bounce notwithstanding. Wait for it... Downside target 325-335, end October 2022, still in range.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Auguraltrader
S&P and DJIA bearish flag to come?Stock market has still stayed in a bearish market structure. Observing multiple bull rallies throughout since February/March 2022. And bull rallies will continue so long as market sentiment continues to expect a more negative month/quarter than it actually is, although still in a decline versus previous month/quarter. We can tell bearish market sentiment from the recent economic data releases where: Forecast < Actual < Previous Forecast is lower than the actuals, and actuals being lower than previous We are in a decline, but expectations were that of a faster decline which is not happening. The economy remains resilient, and this will mean the FED needs to do more to hamper down on inflation. Expecting more aggressive rate hikes, where on the announcements, stock market is expected to make a move lower.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by geneAnalytics
GBPJPY - FUNDAMENTALS WITH SECHNICAL BIAS#GBPJPY - According to the GBPJPY analysis we gave the previous day, the GBPJPY UP SIDE WAVE went very well. The reason for that was, FUNDAMENTALLY JPY WRAK, GBP STRONG. And because the MARKET SENTIMENT is STRONG. XXXJPY has been BUYing very fast since last week. - JPY has become somewhat WEAK because VIX is slightly DOWN. Due to this, STOCKS and XXXJPY CURRENCY were slightly BUY. GBPJPY also became BUY because of that. But now there is a RISK OFF BIAS. So GJ can still be BUY. - Currently, GBPJPY LONG TERM can move up to the LEVEL of 186.85. Also, if GBPJPY STRUCTURE BRAKE, it can move up to 149.09 LEVEL. Therefore, attention should be paid to MARKET UPDATES and MARKET SENTIMENT.
by benny_marshall
1
Two Factors Weighing on StocksStocks have wavered as the markets digest higher weekly unemployment rates and new statements from the Fed. The Fed remains unconvinced at how effective the 'Inflation Reduction Act' will be and Kashkari has stated that the Fed has 'more work to do' to bring down inflation. The S&P 500 has topped out at 3810 with multiple red triangles confirming resistance. We are seeing support in the 3750's, suggesting that we may be forming a bull wedge or other consolidation pattern. If things turn south, 3714 should provide support. A breakout could test 3825.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SNP 500 Short-Term SHORT ExpectationHelp me keep on posting by clicking on BOOST! (it's like "liking") This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF (IS THE KING) - ETC
UShort
by SmartMoneySource
SPX LONG 10-03-22This was the Analysis I posted yesterday before it got hidden by Tradingview for breaking one of their rules. It hit all the TPs! Let's blast off these analyses, click on BOOST! This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF (IS THE KING) - ETC
ULong
by SmartMoneySource
Stocks Rally Expecting A Fed PivotThe S&P 500 rallied off of increased confidence that the Fed will pivot their pervasively hawkish stance. This is likely to be transient and the market was due for a relief rally, anyway. We are currently testing a dense patch of levels in the 3740's, and will face significant resistance here. If we can break through, then 3792 is the next target. If we reject current levels, the most likely scenario, we should have support from 3714 or so, at the base of the 3700 handle.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
More Gloom For Stocks?The S&P 500 has edged lower yet again, showing little buying interest even at these levels. The fourth quarter has just begun and all indications point to more gloom for stocks. We have broken our level at 3584, finding support just above the next level down at 3547. Multiple green triangles on the KRI are suggesting good support here at these levels, but the lack of a buyback suggests we are not out of the woods yet. We are looking incredibly oversold and due for a pullback. If so, we must break through 3610 and 3617, which seem to be providing significant resistance. If we edge down yet again, then 3547 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 OCT 03 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 OCT 03 Week Last week, ES' yielded the following results - Scenario1 short on rejection 3717 level yielded 90pts - Scenario2 long on dotted trend line + 3600 support yielded 50pts Observation: - Converging trend line - prefer to wait as range narrows Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Wait till price shows definite direction by exit of converging trend line as price converge, meaning narrowing range. 2) Short on retracement after breakdown of support or converging trend channel 3) Long retracement if price breakout of converging trend channel and finds support Weekly: Higher vol narrow spread down bar close at low = demand coming in Daily: Ave vol down bar close at low = minor supply H4: UHV down bar close at low = demand coming in Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 3903 3792 3717 3642 3540-3600 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677